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  1. Article ; Online: Analysis of the prediction of the 2021 time-evolution of the Covid-19 pandemic in Italy using a Planck's distribution.

    Ciufolini, Ignazio / Paolozzi, Antonio

    European physical journal plus

    2021  Volume 136, Issue 11, Page(s) 1167

    Abstract: In a previous paper, we studied the time-evolution of the Covid-19 pandemic in Italy during the first wave of 2020 using a number of distribution laws. We concluded that the best distribution law to predict the evolution of the pandemic is a distribution ...

    Abstract In a previous paper, we studied the time-evolution of the Covid-19 pandemic in Italy during the first wave of 2020 using a number of distribution laws. We concluded that the best distribution law to predict the evolution of the pandemic is a distribution of the type of Planck's law with three parameters, provided that the basic conditions of the pandemic (such as social distancing, vaccination campaigns and new Covid variants) do not appreciably change the spread of the pandemic. In our 2020 study, we did not use the number of daily positive cases in Italy but the ratio of daily positive cases per number of daily tests, ratio today sometimes referred to as: "
    Language English
    Publishing date 2021-11-20
    Publishing country Germany
    Document type Journal Article
    ISSN 2190-5444
    ISSN (online) 2190-5444
    DOI 10.1140/epjp/s13360-021-02145-w
    Database MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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  2. Article: An improved mathematical prediction of the time evolution of the Covid-19 pandemic in Italy, with a Monte Carlo simulation and error analyses.

    Ciufolini, Ignazio / Paolozzi, Antonio

    European physical journal plus

    2020  Volume 135, Issue 6, Page(s) 495

    Abstract: We present an improved mathematical analysis of the time evolution of the Covid-19 pandemic in Italy and a statistical error analyses of its evolution, including a Monte Carlo simulation with a very large number of runs to evaluate the uncertainties in ... ...

    Abstract We present an improved mathematical analysis of the time evolution of the Covid-19 pandemic in Italy and a statistical error analyses of its evolution, including a Monte Carlo simulation with a very large number of runs to evaluate the uncertainties in its evolution. A previous analysis was based on the assumption that the number of nasopharyngeal swabs would be constant. However, the number of daily swabs is now more than five times what it was when we did our previous analysis. Therefore, here we consider the time evolution of the ratio of the new daily cases to number of swabs, which is more representative of the evolution of the pandemic when the number of swabs is increasing or changing in time. We consider a number of possible distributions representing the evolution of the pandemic in Italy, and we test their prediction capability over a period of up to 6 weeks. The results show that a distribution of the type of Planck black body radiation law provides very good forecasting. The use of different distributions provides an independent possible estimate of the uncertainty. We then consider five possible trajectories for the number of daily swabs and we estimate the potential dates of a substantial reduction in the number of new daily cases. We then estimate the spread in a substantial reduction, below a certain threshold, of the daily cases per swab among the Italian regions. We finally perform a Monte Carlo simulation with 25,000 runs to evaluate a random uncertainty in the prediction of the date of a substantial reduction in the number of diagnosed daily cases per swab.
    Keywords covid19
    Language English
    Publishing date 2020-06-15
    Publishing country Germany
    Document type Journal Article
    ISSN 2190-5444
    ISSN 2190-5444
    DOI 10.1140/epjp/s13360-020-00488-4
    Database MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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  3. Article: Mathematical prediction of the time evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy by a Gauss error function and Monte Carlo simulations.

    Ciufolini, Ignazio / Paolozzi, Antonio

    European physical journal plus

    2020  Volume 135, Issue 4, Page(s) 355

    Abstract: In this paper are presented mathematical predictions on the evolution in time of the number of positive cases in Italy of the COVID-19 pandemic based on official data and on the use of a function of the type of a Gauss error function, with four ... ...

    Abstract In this paper are presented mathematical predictions on the evolution in time of the number of positive cases in Italy of the COVID-19 pandemic based on official data and on the use of a function of the type of a Gauss error function, with four parameters, as a cumulative distribution function. We have analyzed the available data for China and Italy. The evolution in time of the number of cumulative diagnosed positive cases of COVID-19 in China very well approximates a distribution of the type of the error function, that is, the integral of a normal, Gaussian distribution. We have then used such a function to study the potential evolution in time of the number of positive cases in Italy by performing a number of fits of the official data so far available. We then found a statistical prediction for the day in which the peak of the number of daily positive cases in Italy occurs, corresponding to the flex of the fit, that is, to the change in sign of its second derivative (i.e., the change from acceleration to deceleration), as well as of the day in which a substantial attenuation of such number of daily cases is reached. We have also analyzed the predictions of the cumulative number of fatalities in both China and Italy, obtaining consistent results. We have then performed 150 Monte Carlo simulations to have a more robust prediction of the day of the above-mentioned peak and of the day of the substantial decrease in the number of daily positive cases and fatalities. Although official data have been used, those predictions are obtained with a heuristic approach since they are based on a statistical approach and do not take into account either a number of relevant issues (such as number of daily nasopharyngeal swabs, medical, social distancing, virological and epidemiological) or models of contamination diffusion.
    Keywords covid19
    Language English
    Publishing date 2020-04-15
    Publishing country Germany
    Document type Journal Article
    ISSN 2190-5444
    ISSN 2190-5444
    DOI 10.1140/epjp/s13360-020-00383-y
    Database MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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  4. Article ; Online: Analysis of the prediction of the 2021 time-evolution of the COVID-19 Pandemic in Italy using a Planck's distribution

    Ciufolini, Ignazio / Paolozzi, Antonio

    medRxiv

    Abstract: In a previous paper we studied the time evolution of the Covid-19 pandemic in Italy during the first wave of 2020 using a number of distribution laws. We concluded that the best distribution law to predict the evolution of the pandemic, if basic ... ...

    Abstract In a previous paper we studied the time evolution of the Covid-19 pandemic in Italy during the first wave of 2020 using a number of distribution laws. We concluded that the best distribution law to predict the evolution of the pandemic, if basic conditions (i.e., distancing measures, start of schools, intensive use of public transportation, beginning and end of holidays, new vaccines, spread of new Covid variants) of the pandemic do not appreciably change, is a distribution of the type of Planck9s law with three parameters. In our 2020 study we did not use the number of daily positive cases in Italy but the ratio of daily positive cases per number of daily tests, ratio today sometimes referred to as: "positivity rate". We showed that, if basic conditions do not change, the Planck9s distribution with three parameters provides very good predictions of the positivity rate about one month in advance. In a second paper, using the Planck9s distribution with three parameters, we predicted, about one month in advance, the spread of the pandemic in Italy during the Christmas holidays. Here we show that indeed in our second paper the spread of the pandemic in Italy, after one month, was well predicted using the Planck9s distribution with an error of a few percent only. We then study the present (beginning of September) evolution of the pandemic in Italy and we show that the Planck9s distribution, based on the data of July and August, predicts well the evolution of the pandemic. We then show that, at present, the peak of the ratio of the positivity rate was reached during the second part of August. However, the end of the Italian holidays and the start of schools, intensive use of public transportation and further distancing measures may change again the trend of the positivity rate of the pandemic.
    Keywords covid19
    Language English
    Publishing date 2021-09-12
    Publisher Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press
    Document type Article ; Online
    DOI 10.1101/2021.09.06.21263173
    Database COVID19

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  5. Article ; Online: An improved mathematical prediction of the time evolution of the Covid-19 pandemic in Italy, with a Monte Carlo simulation and error analyses

    Ciufolini, Ignazio / Paolozzi, Antonio

    The European Physical Journal Plus

    2020  Volume 135, Issue 6

    Keywords General Physics and Astronomy ; covid19
    Language English
    Publisher Springer Science and Business Media LLC
    Publishing country us
    Document type Article ; Online
    ISSN 2190-5444
    DOI 10.1140/epjp/s13360-020-00488-4
    Database BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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  6. Article ; Online: Mathematical prediction of the time evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy by a Gauss error function and Monte Carlo simulations

    Ciufolini, Ignazio / Paolozzi, Antonio

    The European Physical Journal Plus

    2020  Volume 135, Issue 4

    Keywords General Physics and Astronomy ; covid19
    Language English
    Publisher Springer Science and Business Media LLC
    Publishing country us
    Document type Article ; Online
    ISSN 2190-5444
    DOI 10.1140/epjp/s13360-020-00383-y
    Database BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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  7. Article ; Online: Time travel, Clock Puzzles and Their Experimental Tests

    Ciufolini Ignazio

    EPJ Web of Conferences, Vol 58, p

    2013  Volume 01005

    Abstract: Is time travel possible? What is Einstein’s theory of relativity mathematically predicting in that regard? Is time travel related to the so-called clock ‘paradoxes’ of relativity and if so how? Is there any accurate experimental evidence of the phenomena ...

    Abstract Is time travel possible? What is Einstein’s theory of relativity mathematically predicting in that regard? Is time travel related to the so-called clock ‘paradoxes’ of relativity and if so how? Is there any accurate experimental evidence of the phenomena regarding the different flow of time predicted by General Relativity and is there any possible application of the temporal phenomena predicted by relativity to our everyday life? Which temporal phenomena are predicted in the vicinities of a rotating body and of a mass-energy current, and do we have any experimental test of the occurrence of these phenomena near a rotating body? In this paper, we address and answer some of these questions.
    Keywords Physics ; QC1-999 ; Science ; Q ; DOAJ:Physics (General) ; DOAJ:Physics and Astronomy
    Language English
    Publishing date 2013-09-01T00:00:00Z
    Publisher EDP Sciences
    Document type Article ; Online
    Database BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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  8. Article ; Online: A Mathematical prediction of the time evolution of the Covid-19 pandemic in some countries of the European Union using Monte Carlo simulations

    Ciufolini, Ignazio / Paolozzi, Antonio

    Abstract: In this paper we study the statistical evolution in time of the Covid-19 pandemic in Spain, Italy, Germany, Belgium, The Netherlands, Austria and Portugal, i.e., the countries of the European Union (EU) that have a number of positive cases higher than 12 ...

    Abstract In this paper we study the statistical evolution in time of the Covid-19 pandemic in Spain, Italy, Germany, Belgium, The Netherlands, Austria and Portugal, i.e., the countries of the European Union (EU) that have a number of positive cases higher than 12 thousand at April 7, 2020. France is the third country of the EU for number of cases but a jump in the data on April 3, 2020 does not allow, at least for the moment, to have a reliable prediction curve. The analysis is based on the use of a function of the type of a Gauss Error Function, with four parameters, as a Cumulative Distribution Function (CDF). A Monte Carlo analysis is used to estimate the uncertainty. The approach used in this paper is mathematical and statistical and thus does not explicitly consider a number of relevant issues, including number of nasopharyngeal swabs, mitigation measures, social distancing, virologic, epidemiological and models of contamination diffusion.
    Keywords covid19
    Publisher MedRxiv; WHO
    Document type Article ; Online
    DOI 10.1101/2020.04.10.20061051
    Database COVID19

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  9. Article ; Online: A Mathematical prediction of the time evolution of the Covid-19 pandemic in some countries of the European Union using Monte Carlo simulations

    Ciufolini, Ignazio / Paolozzi, Antonio

    medRxiv

    Abstract: In this paper we study the statistical evolution in time of the Covid-19 pandemic in Spain, Italy, Germany, Belgium, The Netherlands, Austria and Portugal, i.e., the countries of the European Union (EU) that have a number of positive cases higher than 12 ...

    Abstract In this paper we study the statistical evolution in time of the Covid-19 pandemic in Spain, Italy, Germany, Belgium, The Netherlands, Austria and Portugal, i.e., the countries of the European Union (EU) that have a number of positive cases higher than 12 thousand at April 7, 2020. France is the third country of the EU for number of cases but a jump in the data on April 3, 2020 does not allow, at least for the moment, to have a reliable prediction curve. The analysis is based on the use of a function of the type of a Gauss Error Function, with four parameters, as a Cumulative Distribution Function (CDF). A Monte Carlo analysis is used to estimate the uncertainty. The approach used in this paper is mathematical and statistical and thus does not explicitly consider a number of relevant issues, including number of nasopharyngeal swabs, mitigation measures, social distancing, virologic, epidemiological and models of contamination diffusion.
    Keywords covid19
    Language English
    Publishing date 2020-04-16
    Publisher Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press
    Document type Article ; Online
    DOI 10.1101/2020.04.10.20061051
    Database COVID19

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  10. Article ; Online: Prediction of evolution of the second wave of Covid-19 pandemic in Italy

    Ciufolini, Ignazio / Paolozzi, Antonio

    medRxiv

    Abstract: A relevant problem in the study of the Covid-19 pandemic is the study of its temporal evolution. Such evolution depends on a number of factors, among which the average rate of contacts between susceptible and infected individuals, the duration of ... ...

    Abstract A relevant problem in the study of the Covid-19 pandemic is the study of its temporal evolution. Such evolution depends on a number of factors, among which the average rate of contacts between susceptible and infected individuals, the duration of infectiousness and the transmissibility, that is the probability of infection after a contact between susceptible and infected individuals. In a previous study, we analyzed the potentiality of a number of distributions to describe the evolution of the pandemic and the potentiality of each distribution to mathematically predict the evolution of the pandemic in Italy. Since the number of daily tests was changing and increasing with time, we used the ratio of the new daily cases per swab. We considered distributions of the type of Gauss (normal), Gamma, Beta, Weibull, Lognormal and in addition of the type of the Planck blackbody radiation law. The Planck law, describing the amount of energy of the electromagnetic radiation emitted by a black body at each wavelength or at each frequency, marked in 1900 the beginning of Quantum Mechanics. The result of our analysis was that, among the considered distributions, the Planck law has the best potentiality to mathematically predict the evolution of the pandemic and the best fitting capability. In this paper, we analyze the time evolution of this second wave of Covid-19 pandemic in Italy. In this study there is also an attempt to account for the effects of the governmental containment measures.
    Keywords covid19
    Language English
    Publishing date 2020-11-28
    Publisher Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press
    Document type Article ; Online
    DOI 10.1101/2020.11.24.20238139
    Database COVID19

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