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Article: Understanding the Impact of Vaccination and Self-Defense Measures on Epidemic Dynamics Using an Embedded Optimization and Evolutionary Game Theory Methodology.

Kabir, K M Ariful / Islam, M D Shahidul / Sharif Ullah, Mohammad

2023 Volume 11, Issue 9

Abstract: Explaining how individual choice and government policy can appear in the same context in real society is one of the most challenging scientific problems. Controlling infectious diseases requires effective prevention and control measures, including ... ...

Abstract	Explaining how individual choice and government policy can appear in the same context in real society is one of the most challenging scientific problems. Controlling infectious diseases requires effective prevention and control measures, including vaccination and self-defense measures. In this context, optimal control strategies incorporating vaccination and self-defense measures have been proposed using the framework of evolutionary game theory. This approach accounts for individuals' behavior and interactions in a population. It can provide insights into the effectiveness of different strategies for controlling the spread of infectious diseases. The optimal control strategy involves balancing the costs and benefits of vaccination, considering the dynamic interplay between the infected and susceptible populations. By combining evolutionary game theory with optimal control theory, we can identify the optimal allocation of resources for vaccination and self-defense measures, which can maximize the control of infectious diseases while minimizing costs. The model is utilized to analyze public health policies diseases, such as vaccination and self-defense strategies, to mitigate the spread of infectious in the context of delayed decision-making.
Language	English
Publishing date	2023-08-25
Publishing country	Switzerland
Document type	Journal Article
ZDB-ID	2703319-3
ISSN	2076-393X
ISSN	2076-393X
DOI	10.3390/vaccines11091421
Database	MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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Article ; Online: Understanding the Impact of Vaccination and Self-Defense Measures on Epidemic Dynamics Using an Embedded Optimization and Evolutionary Game Theory Methodology

K. M. Ariful Kabir / MD Shahidul Islam / Mohammad Sharif Ullah

Vaccines, Vol 11, Iss 1421, p

2023 Volume 1421

Abstract	Explaining how individual choice and government policy can appear in the same context in real society is one of the most challenging scientific problems. Controlling infectious diseases requires effective prevention and control measures, including vaccination and self-defense measures. In this context, optimal control strategies incorporating vaccination and self-defense measures have been proposed using the framework of evolutionary game theory. This approach accounts for individuals’ behavior and interactions in a population. It can provide insights into the effectiveness of different strategies for controlling the spread of infectious diseases. The optimal control strategy involves balancing the costs and benefits of vaccination, considering the dynamic interplay between the infected and susceptible populations. By combining evolutionary game theory with optimal control theory, we can identify the optimal allocation of resources for vaccination and self-defense measures, which can maximize the control of infectious diseases while minimizing costs. The model is utilized to analyze public health policies diseases, such as vaccination and self-defense strategies, to mitigate the spread of infectious in the context of delayed decision-making.
Keywords	optimal control ; evolutionary game theory ; vaccination ; self-defense measure ; Medicine ; R
Language	English
Publishing date	2023-08-01T00:00:00Z
Publisher	MDPI AG
Document type	Article ; Online
Database	BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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Article: Typhoid in Bangladesh: Challenges, efforts, and recommendations.

Salman, Yumna / Asim, Hanzla / Hashmi, Narmeen / Islam, Zarmina / Essar, Mohammad Yasir / Haque, Md Ariful

Annals of medicine and surgery (2012)

2022 Volume 80, Page(s) 104261

Language	English
Publishing date	2022-07-31
Publishing country	England
Document type	Journal Article
ZDB-ID	2745440-X
ISSN	2049-0801
ISSN	2049-0801
DOI	10.1016/j.amsu.2022.104261
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Article: Comparative advantage of rice production in Bangladesh: A long-term Quasi-response assessment for Aman (Wet) season

Mohammad Ariful Islam / Sarkar, Abdur Rouf / Mohammad Chhiddikur Rahman / Rahaman, Shajedur

Fundamental and applied agriculture. 2021 Sept., v. 6, no. 3

2021

Abstract: Comparative advantage is one of the economic techniques used by the policymaker to determine whether domestic rice production is viable or not, which is crucial in determining the country's foodgrain policy. This study aims to investigate whether ... ...

Abstract	Comparative advantage is one of the economic techniques used by the policymaker to determine whether domestic rice production is viable or not, which is crucial in determining the country's foodgrain policy. This study aims to investigate whether Bangladesh has a comparative advantage in producing rice in the long run in the Aman (wet) season. With that view, we estimated Domestic Resource Cost (DRC) as an indicator of comparative advantage using the time series data from 2010-11 to 2020-21. The study also captured paddy yield, border rice price, marketing spread between the wholesale and retail level, and different inputs price changes using sensitivity analysis. Data were obtained from the database on the food situation, published by the Food Planning and Monitoring Unit (FPMU), Ministry of Food, Peoples Republic of Bangladesh. The analyses show that Bangladesh has a comparative advantage in modern variety (MV) rice production in the Aman season at import substitution. DRC values for Aman (Wet) season are less than 1 in all the periods (2010-11 to 2020-21) except 2017-18 and 2018-19. The sensitivity analysis shows that all the indicators like paddy yield, marketing spread between the wholesale and retail level, border price of rice, urea, TSP, and MoP pertinent to this particular analysis strongly influence (both increased and decreased) the DRC values. When the paddy yield, border price of rice, border price of rice, urea, TSP, MoP inputs prices have increased gradually and non-tradable inputs, marketing spread between the wholesale and retail level price and border price of urea, TSP and MoP inputs price have decreased progressively, all the DRC values have decreased gradually and vice versa. So, the level of comparative advantage of Aman (Wet) season rice production has been increased chronologically at import substitution and vice versa. To achieve a long-run comparative advantage, government, as well as policymakers, should focus on reducing price spread between the wholesale to retail levels, the border price of rice at the farm gate level, and the border prices of rice, urea, TSP, and MoP of farm gate level. Research efforts need to prioritize developing new varieties with higher yield potentiality and proper management packages for the Aman (Wet) season. [Fundam Appl Agric 2021; 6(3.000): 279-290]
Keywords	agriculture ; databases ; farms ; imports ; issues and policy ; paddies ; prices ; rice ; time series analysis ; urea ; Bangladesh
Language	English
Dates of publication	2021-09
Size	p. 279-290.
Publishing place	Farm to Fork Foundation
Document type	Article
ZDB-ID	2933057-9
ISSN	2415-4474 ; 2518-2021
ISSN (online)	2415-4474
ISSN	2518-2021
DOI	10.5455/faa.82109
Database	NAL-Catalogue (AGRICOLA)

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Article ; Online: Conservation agriculture’s impact on total and labile organic carbon pools in calcareous and non-calcareous floodplain soils under a sub-tropical rice-based system

Rakhi Rani Sarker / M. H. Rashid / Md. Ariful Islam / M. Jahiruddin / Khandakar Rafiq Islam / Mohammad Mofizur Rahman Jahangir

PLoS ONE, Vol 18, Iss

2023 Volume 11

Keywords	Medicine ; R ; Science ; Q
Language	English
Publishing date	2023-01-01T00:00:00Z
Publisher	Public Library of Science (PLoS)
Document type	Article ; Online
Database	BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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Article ; Online: The role of vaccination and environmental factors on outbreaks of high pathogenicity avian influenza H5N1 in Bangladesh

Ariful Islam / Sarah Munro / Mohammad Mahmudul Hassan / Jonathan H. Epstein / Marcel Klaassen

One Health, Vol 17, Iss , Pp 100655- (2023)

2023

Abstract: High Pathogenicity Avian Influenza (HPAI) H5N1 outbreaks continue to wreak havoc on the global poultry industry and threaten the health of wild bird populations, with sporadic spillover in humans and other mammals, resulting in widespread calls to ... ...

Abstract	High Pathogenicity Avian Influenza (HPAI) H5N1 outbreaks continue to wreak havoc on the global poultry industry and threaten the health of wild bird populations, with sporadic spillover in humans and other mammals, resulting in widespread calls to vaccinate poultry. Bangladesh has been vaccinating poultry since 2012, presenting a prime opportunity to study the effects of vaccination on HPAI H5N1circulation in both poultry and wild birds. We investigated the efficacy of vaccinating commercial poultry against HPAI H5N1 along with climatic and socio-economic factors considered potential drivers of HPAI H5N1 outbreak risk in Bangladesh. Using a multivariate modeling approach, we estimated that the rate of outbreaks was 18 times higher before compared to after vaccination, with winter months having a three times higher chance of outbreaks than summer months. Variables resulting in small but significant increases in outbreak rate were relatively low ambient temperatures for the time of year, literacy rate, chicken and duck density, crop density, and presence of highways; this may be attributable to low temperatures supporting viral survival outside the host, higher literacy driving reporting rate, density of the host reservoir, and spread of the virus through increased connectivity. Despite the substantial impact of vaccination on outbreaks, we note that HPAI H5N1 is still enzootic in Bangladesh; vaccinated poultry flocks have high rates of H5N1 prevalence, and spillover to wild birds has increased. Vaccination in Bangladesh thus bears the risk of supporting “silent spread,” where the vaccine only provides protection against disease and not also infection. Our findings underscore that poultry vaccination can be part of holistic HPAI mitigation strategies when accompanied by monitoring to avoid silent spread.
Keywords	Immunization ; Bird flu ; Epidemiology ; Poultry ; Chicken ; Climate drivers ; Medicine (General) ; R5-920
Subject code	333
Language	English
Publishing date	2023-12-01T00:00:00Z
Publisher	Elsevier
Document type	Article ; Online
Database	BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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Article: The role of vaccination and environmental factors on outbreaks of high pathogenicity avian influenza H5N1 in Bangladesh.

Islam, Ariful / Munro, Sarah / Hassan, Mohammad Mahmudul / Epstein, Jonathan H / Klaassen, Marcel

One health (Amsterdam, Netherlands)

2023 Volume 17, Page(s) 100655

Abstract	High Pathogenicity Avian Influenza (HPAI) H5N1 outbreaks continue to wreak havoc on the global poultry industry and threaten the health of wild bird populations, with sporadic spillover in humans and other mammals, resulting in widespread calls to vaccinate poultry. Bangladesh has been vaccinating poultry since 2012, presenting a prime opportunity to study the effects of vaccination on HPAI H5N1circulation in both poultry and wild birds. We investigated the efficacy of vaccinating commercial poultry against HPAI H5N1 along with climatic and socio-economic factors considered potential drivers of HPAI H5N1 outbreak risk in Bangladesh. Using a multivariate modeling approach, we estimated that the rate of outbreaks was 18 times higher before compared to after vaccination, with winter months having a three times higher chance of outbreaks than summer months. Variables resulting in small but significant increases in outbreak rate were relatively low ambient temperatures for the time of year, literacy rate, chicken and duck density, crop density, and presence of highways; this may be attributable to low temperatures supporting viral survival outside the host, higher literacy driving reporting rate, density of the host reservoir, and spread of the virus through increased connectivity. Despite the substantial impact of vaccination on outbreaks, we note that HPAI H5N1 is still enzootic in Bangladesh; vaccinated poultry flocks have high rates of H5N1 prevalence, and spillover to wild birds has increased. Vaccination in Bangladesh thus bears the risk of supporting "silent spread," where the vaccine only provides protection against disease and not also infection. Our findings underscore that poultry vaccination can be part of holistic HPAI mitigation strategies when accompanied by monitoring to avoid silent spread.
Language	English
Publishing date	2023-11-16
Publishing country	Netherlands
Document type	Journal Article
ZDB-ID	2834831-X
ISSN	2352-7714
ISSN	2352-7714
DOI	10.1016/j.onehlt.2023.100655
Database	MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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Article ; Online: Identification of B and T Cell Epitopes to Design an Epitope-Based Peptide Vaccine against the Cell Surface Binding Protein of Monkeypox Virus: An Immunoinformatics Study.

Mazumder, Lincon / Hasan, Md Rakibul / Fatema, Kanij / Begum, Shamima / Azad, Abul Kalam / Islam, Mohammad Ariful

Journal of immunology research

2023 Volume 2023, Page(s) 2274415

Abstract: Background: Although the monkeypox virus-associated illness was previously confined to Africa, recently, it has started to spread across the globe and become a significant threat to human lives. Hence, this study was designed to identify the B and T ... ...

Abstract	Background: Although the monkeypox virus-associated illness was previously confined to Africa, recently, it has started to spread across the globe and become a significant threat to human lives. Hence, this study was designed to identify the B and T cell epitopes and develop an epitope-based peptide vaccine against this virus's cell surface binding protein through an Results: The analysis revealed that the cell surface binding protein of the monkeypox virus contains 30 B cell and 19 T cell epitopes within the given parameter. Among the T cell epitopes, epitope "ILFLMSQRY" was found to be one of the most potential peptide vaccine candidates. The docking analysis revealed an excellent binding affinity of this epitope with the human receptor HLA-B Conclusion: The outcome of this research will aid the development of a T cell epitope-based peptide vaccine, and the discovered B and T cell epitopes will facilitate the creation of other epitope and multi-epitope-based vaccines in the future. This research will also serve as a basis for further
MeSH term(s)	Humans ; Epitopes, T-Lymphocyte ; Monkeypox virus ; Membrane Proteins ; Vaccines, Subunit ; B-Lymphocytes
Chemical Substances	Epitopes, T-Lymphocyte ; Membrane Proteins ; Vaccines, Subunit
Language	English
Publishing date	2023-02-22
Publishing country	Egypt
Document type	Journal Article
ZDB-ID	2817541-4
ISSN	2314-7156 ; 2314-7156
ISSN (online)	2314-7156
ISSN	2314-7156
DOI	10.1155/2023/2274415
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Article ; Online: Determinants for the presence of avian influenza virus in live bird markets in Bangladesh

Ariful Islam / Mohammed Ziaur Rahman / Mohammad Mahmudul Hassan / Jonathan H. Epstein / Marcel Klaassen

One Health, Vol 17, Iss , Pp 100643- (2023)

Towards an easy fix of a looming one health issue

2023

Abstract: Highly pathogenic avian influenza virus subtype H5N1 endangers poultry, wildlife, and human health and is enzootic in large parts of Asia, with live bird markets (LBMs) as putative hotspots for their maintenance, amplification, and spread. To mitigate ... ...

Abstract	Highly pathogenic avian influenza virus subtype H5N1 endangers poultry, wildlife, and human health and is enzootic in large parts of Asia, with live bird markets (LBMs) as putative hotspots for their maintenance, amplification, and spread. To mitigate the extent of these and other avian influenza viruses (AIV) of concern, we aimed to increase our quantitative understanding of the factors determining the presence of avian influenza virus in LBM stalls. Between 2016 and 2017, we collected fecal or offal samples from 1008 stalls in 113 LBMs across the Dhaka and Rajshahi districts in Bangladesh. For each stall, samples were pooled and tested for the AIV matrix gene, followed by H5 and H9 subtyping using rRT-PCR. We detected Influenza A viral RNA in 49% of the stalls. Of the AIV positive samples, 52% and 24% were determined to be H5 and H9 viruses, respectively, which are both subtypes of considerable health concern. We used generalized linear mixed effect modelling to study AIV presence in individual stalls within LBMs as a function of 13 out of the 20 risk factors identified by FAO. We found that small and feasible improvements in cleaning and disinfection frequency, installing running water in stalls, and not mixing different breeds of chicken in the same cages had large impacts on the presence of AIV in stalls (Odds ratios 0.03–0.05). Next, cleaning vehicles used in poultry transport, not selling waterfowl with chickens in the same stall, buying stock directly from commercial farms, separating sick birds from healthy ones, and avoiding access by wild birds like house crows, also had major effects on lowering the risk of stalls having AIV (Odds ratios 0.16–0.33). These findings can be directly used in developing practical and affordable measures to reduce the prevalence of AIV in LBMs. Also, in settings with limited resources like Bangladesh, such mitigation may significantly contribute to reducing AIV circulation amongst poultry and spillover to wildlife and humans.
Keywords	Biosecurity ; Risk factors ; H5N1 ; Zoonotic ; Spillover ; Interventions ; Medicine (General) ; R5-920
Language	English
Publishing date	2023-12-01T00:00:00Z
Publisher	Elsevier
Document type	Article ; Online
Database	BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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Article ; Online: Detection of herpes simplex virus 2: a SYBR-Green-based real-time PCR assay.

Shaha, Modhusudon / Roy, Bithi / Islam, Mohammad Ariful

F1000Research

2021 Volume 10, Page(s) 655

Abstract: The prevalence of Herpes simplex virus 2 (HSV2) is increasing at an alarming rate in the world. Most of the HSV2 cases are not diagnosed properly, although a range of molecular and serological diagnoses exist. Herein, we have reported a very rapid ... ...

Abstract	The prevalence of Herpes simplex virus 2 (HSV2) is increasing at an alarming rate in the world. Most of the HSV2 cases are not diagnosed properly, although a range of molecular and serological diagnoses exist. Herein, we have reported a very rapid detection method specific for HSV2 using real-time PCR. The primers specific for HSV2 were designed using the Primer-BLAST tool and 120 base pairs of the polymerase gene were amplified using real-time PCR with SYBR Green dye. The designed primer pair was found highly efficient in detecting only HSV2 DNA, but not HSV1. The threshold cycle (Ct) value for HSV2 reactions by designed primers was found to be an average of 22.55 for a standard copy number of viral DNA that may denote the efficiency of the primers. The melting temperature (Tm) of the amplicon using designed primers (82.6
MeSH term(s)	Benzothiazoles ; Diamines ; Herpesvirus 2, Human/genetics ; Quinolines ; Real-Time Polymerase Chain Reaction
Chemical Substances	Benzothiazoles ; Diamines ; Quinolines ; SYBR Green I (163795-75-3)
Language	English
Publishing date	2021-07-26
Publishing country	England
Document type	Journal Article
ZDB-ID	2699932-8
ISSN	2046-1402 ; 2046-1402
ISSN (online)	2046-1402
ISSN	2046-1402
DOI	10.12688/f1000research.53541.2
Database	MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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