Article ; Online: Number of COVID-19 cases in Chile at 120 days with data at 21/03/2020 and threshold of daily effort to flatten the epi-curve.
2020 Volume 20, Issue 2, Page(s) e7861
Abstract: We present a straightforward projection with data up to 21/03/2020 of the evolution of the number of COVID-19 cases per day in Chile using data from the Ministry of Health. Assuming an arithmetical growth in the second variation of the data, we present a ...
Title translation | Número de casos COVID-19 en Chile a 120 días con datos al 21/03/2020 y umbral del esfuerzo diario para aplanar la epi-curva. |
---|---|
Abstract | We present a straightforward projection with data up to 21/03/2020 of the evolution of the number of COVID-19 cases per day in Chile using data from the Ministry of Health. Assuming an arithmetical growth in the second variation of the data, we present a cubic adjustment model in which we estimate over 100 000 cases at 120 days consistent with the data recorded to date. Furthermore, we use an exponential total case model to represent (using a parameter) the daily effort to reduce a high initial daily growth rate. We simulate this model with different numerical scenarios of feasibility and desired future prevalence. |
MeSH term(s) | Betacoronavirus ; COVID-19 ; Chile/epidemiology ; Coronavirus Infections/epidemiology ; Disease Outbreaks ; Humans ; Models, Statistical ; Pandemics ; Pneumonia, Viral/epidemiology ; Prevalence ; SARS-CoV-2 |
Keywords | covid19 |
Language | Spanish |
Publishing date | 2020-03-27 |
Publishing country | Chile |
Document type | Journal Article |
ZDB-ID | 2818022-7 |
ISSN | 0717-6384 ; 0717-6384 |
ISSN (online) | 0717-6384 |
ISSN | 0717-6384 |
DOI | 10.5867/medwave.2020.02.7861 |
Database | MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE |
More links
Kategorien
Order via subito
This service is chargeable due to the Delivery terms set by subito. Orders including an article and supplementary material will be classified as separate orders. In these cases, fees will be demanded for each order.