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Article ; Online: Modelos predictivos de la epidemia de COVID-19 en España con curvas de Gompertz.

Sánchez-Villegas, Pablo / Daponte Codina, Antonio

2020 Volume 35, Issue 6, Page(s) 585–589

Abstract: During the international health crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, it is necessary not only to know the data on infections, deaths and the occupation of hospital beds, but also to make predictions that help health authorities in the management of ... ...

Title translation	Predictive models of the COVID-19 epidemic in Spain with Gompertz curves.
Abstract	During the international health crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, it is necessary not only to know the data on infections, deaths and the occupation of hospital beds, but also to make predictions that help health authorities in the management of the crisis. The present work aims to describe the methodology used to develop predictive models of infections and deaths for the COVID-19 epidemic in Spain, based on Gompertz curves. The methodology is applied to the country as a whole and to each of its Autonomous Communities. Based on the official data available on the date of this work, and through the models described, we estimate a total of around 240.000 infected and 25.000 deaths at the end of the epidemic. At a national level, we forecast the end of the epidemic between June and July 2020.
MeSH term(s)	COVID-19 ; Forecasting ; Humans ; Pandemics ; SARS-CoV-2 ; Spain/epidemiology
Keywords	covid19
Language	Spanish
Publishing date	2020-05-29
Publishing country	Spain
Document type	Journal Article
ZDB-ID	1038713-4
ISSN	1578-1283 ; 0213-9111
ISSN (online)	1578-1283
ISSN	0213-9111
DOI	10.1016/j.gaceta.2020.05.005
Database	MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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Article ; Online: Modelos predictivos de la epidemia de COVID-19 en España con curvas de Gompertz

Pablo Sánchez-Villegas / Antonio Daponte Codina

Gaceta Sanitaria, Vol 35, Iss 6, Pp 585-

2021 Volume 589

Abstract: Resumen: Durante la crisis de salud internacional provocada por la pandemia de COVID-19, además de conocer los datos sobre contagios, muertes y ocupación de camas hospitalarias también es necesario hacer predicciones que ayuden a la gestión de la crisis ... ...

Abstract	Resumen: Durante la crisis de salud internacional provocada por la pandemia de COVID-19, además de conocer los datos sobre contagios, muertes y ocupación de camas hospitalarias también es necesario hacer predicciones que ayuden a la gestión de la crisis por parte de las autoridades sanitarias. El presente trabajo tiene como objetivo describir la metodología utilizada para la elaboración de modelos predictivos de contagios y defunciones para la epidemia de COVID-19 en España basados en curvas de Gompertz. La metodología se aplica al total del país y a cada una de sus comunidades autónomas. De acuerdo con los datos oficiales publicados a la fecha de realización de este trabajo, y a través de los modelos descritos, estimamos un total de alrededor de 240.000 contagiados y 25.000 fallecidos al final de la epidemia. Pronosticamos el final de la epidemia entre los meses de junio y julio de 2020. Abstract: During the international health crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, it is necessary not only to know the data on infections, deaths and the occupation of hospital beds, but also to make predictions that help health authorities in the management of the crisis. The present work aims to describe the methodology used to develop predictive models of infections and deaths for the COVID-19 epidemic in Spain, based on Gompertz curves. The methodology is applied to the country as a whole and to each of its Autonomous Communities. Based on the official data available on the date of this work, and through the models described, we estimate a total of around 240.000 infected and 25.000 deaths at the end of the epidemic. At a national level, we forecast the end of the epidemic between June and July 2020.
Keywords	COVID-19 ; Forecasting ; Mortality ; Public aspects of medicine ; RA1-1270
Language	English
Publishing date	2021-11-01T00:00:00Z
Publisher	Elsevier
Document type	Article ; Online
Database	BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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Article ; Online: Modelos predictivos de la epidemia de COVID-19 en España con curvas de Gompertz

Sánchez-Villegas, Pablo / Daponte Codina, Antonio

Gaceta Sanitaria ; ISSN 0213-9111

2020

Keywords	Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health ; covid19
Language	Spanish
Publisher	Elsevier BV
Publishing country	us
Document type	Article ; Online
DOI	10.1016/j.gaceta.2020.05.005
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Article: Modelos predictivos de la epidemia de COVID-19 en España con curvas de Gompertz./ [Predictive models of the COVID-19 epidemic in Spain with Gompertz curves]

Sánchez-Villegas, Pablo / Daponte Codina, Antonio

Gac. sanit. (Barc., Ed. impr.)

Abstract	During the international health crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, it is necessary not only to know the data on infections, deaths and the occupation of hospital beds, but also to make predictions that help health authorities in the management of the crisis. The present work aims to describe the methodology used to develop predictive models of infections and deaths for the COVID-19 epidemic in Spain, based on Gompertz curves. The methodology is applied to the country as a whole and to each of its Autonomous Communities. Based on the official data available on the date of this work, and through the models described, we estimate a total of around 240.000 infected and 25.000 deaths at the end of the epidemic. At a national level, we forecast the end of the epidemic between June and July 2020.
Keywords	covid19
Publisher	WHO
Document type	Article
Note	WHO #Covidence: #436313
Database	COVID19

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Article ; Online: Asociación entre la caminabilidad del barrio de residencia y la mortalidad por distintas causas en Andalucía.

Sánchez-Villegas, Pablo / Cabrera-León, Andrés / Gil García, Eugenia

Gaceta sanitaria

2019 Volume 35, Issue 3, Page(s) 260–263

Abstract: Objective: To describe the association between the Neighborhood Walkability and mortality.: Method: Ecological study of small areas. The standardized mortality ratios (SMR) and the Walk Score© were calculated in each census tract. These values were ... ...

Title translation	Association between neighborhood walkability and mortality due to different causes in Andalusia (Spain).
Abstract	Objective: To describe the association between the Neighborhood Walkability and mortality. Method: Ecological study of small areas. The standardized mortality ratios (SMR) and the Walk Score© were calculated in each census tract. These values were compared with parametric and nonparametric tests. Results: For men, in the case of ischemic diseases, the means of the SMR for the categories with the highest walkability and the least were 1.03 and 0.85 (p <0.01), and in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) were 1,009 and 1.20 (p <0.01). In women, the means of the SMR for diabetes were 0.97 and 1.2 (p <0.01), for ischemic diseases were 1.01 and 1.12 (p <0.01), for cerebrovascular diseases were 1.007 and 1.18 (p <0.01), for COPD were 1.01 and 1.49 (p <0.01) and for all causes were 1.006 and 1.08 (p <0.01) CONCLUSIONS: Behavior about walking in the activities of daily life is different between sexes. Living in walkable neighborhoods is a protective factor for women.
MeSH term(s)	Diabetes Mellitus ; Environment Design ; Female ; Humans ; Male ; Residence Characteristics ; Spain/epidemiology ; Walking
Language	Spanish
Publishing date	2019-09-15
Publishing country	Spain
Document type	Journal Article
ZDB-ID	1038713-4
ISSN	1578-1283 ; 0213-9111
ISSN (online)	1578-1283
ISSN	0213-9111
DOI	10.1016/j.gaceta.2019.06.004
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Article ; Online: Modelos predictivos de la epidemia de COVID-19 en España con curvas de Gompertz

Sánchez-Villegas, Pablo / Codina, Antonio Daponte

Gac Sanit

Abstract: RESUMEN Durante la crisis de salud internacional provocada por la pandemia de COVID-19, además de conocer los datos sobre contagios, muertes y ocupación de camas hospitalarias también es necesario hacer predicciones que ayuden a la gestión de la crisis ... ...

Abstract	RESUMEN Durante la crisis de salud internacional provocada por la pandemia de COVID-19, además de conocer los datos sobre contagios, muertes y ocupación de camas hospitalarias también es necesario hacer predicciones que ayuden a la gestión de la crisis por parte de las autoridades sanitarias. El presente trabajo tiene como objetivo describir la metodología utilizada para la elaboración de modelos predictivos de contagios y defunciones para la epidemia de COVID-19 en España basados en curvas de Gompertz. La metodología se aplica al total del país y a cada una de sus comunidades autónomas. De acuerdo con los datos oficiales publicados a la fecha de realización de este trabajo, y a través de los modelos descritos, estimamos un total de alrededor de 240.000 contagiados y 25.000 fallecidos al final de la epidemia. Pronosticamos el final de la epidemia entre los meses de junio y julio de 2020. ABSTRACT During the international health crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, it is necessary not only to know the data on infections, deaths and the occupation of hospital beds, but also to make predictions that help health authorities in the management of the crisis. The present work aims to describe the methodology used to develop predictive models of infections and deaths for the COVID-19 epidemic in Spain, based on Gompertz curves. The methodology is applied to the country as a whole and to each of its Autonomous Communities. Based on the official data available on the date of this work, and through the models described, we estimate a total of around 240.000 infected and 25.000 deaths at the end of the epidemic. At a national level, we forecast the end of the epidemic between June and July 2020.
Keywords	covid19
Publisher	Elsevier; PMC; WHO
Document type	Article ; Online
Note	WHO #Covidence: #436313
DOI	10.1016/j.gaceta.2020.05.005
Database	COVID19

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Article ; Online: Effects of the economic recession on suicide mortality in Brazil: interrupted time series analysis.

Figueiredo, Daniela Cristina Moreira Marculino de / Sanchéz-Villegas, Pablo / Figueiredo, Alexandre Medeiros de / Moraes, Ronei Marcos de / Daponte-Codina, Antonio / Schmidt Filho, Ricardo / Vianna, Rodrigo Pinheiro de Toledo

Revista brasileira de enfermagem

2022 Volume 75Suppl 3, Issue Suppl 3, Page(s) e20210778

Abstract: Objectives: to analyze trends in suicide rates in Brazil in the period before and after the start of the economic recession.: Methods: interrupted time series research using national suicide data recorded in the period between 2012 and 2017 with ... ...

Abstract	Objectives: to analyze trends in suicide rates in Brazil in the period before and after the start of the economic recession. Methods: interrupted time series research using national suicide data recorded in the period between 2012 and 2017 with socioeconomic subgroups analyses. Quasi-Poisson regression model was employed to analyze trends in seasonally adjusted data. Results: there was an abrupt increase in the risk of suicide after economic recession in the population with less education (12.5%; RR = 1.125; 95%CI: 1.027; 1.232) and in the South Region (17.7%; 1.044; 1.328). After an abrupt reduction, there was a progressive increase in risk for the black and brown population and for those with higher education. In most other population strata, there was a progressive increase in the risk of suicide. Conclusions: the Brazilian economic recession caused different effects on suicide rates, considering social strata, which requires health strategies and policies that are sensitive to the most vulnerable populations.
MeSH term(s)	Brazil/epidemiology ; Economic Recession ; Educational Status ; Humans ; Interrupted Time Series Analysis ; Suicide
Language	Portuguese
Publishing date	2022-06-10
Publishing country	Brazil
Document type	Journal Article
ZDB-ID	731983-6
ISSN	1984-0446 ; 0034-7167
ISSN (online)	1984-0446
ISSN	0034-7167
DOI	10.1590/0034-7167-2021-0778
Database	MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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Article ; Online: Effect of the Financial Crisis on Socioeconomic Inequalities in Mortality in Small Areas in Seven Spanish Cities.

Gotsens, Mercè / Ferrando, Josep / Marí-Dell'Olmo, Marc / Palència, Laia / Bartoll, Xavier / Gandarillas, Ana / Sanchez-Villegas, Pablo / Esnaola, Santi / Daponte, Antonio / Borrell, Carme

International journal of environmental research and public health

2020 Volume 17, Issue 3

Abstract: Background: The aim of this study was to analyze the trend in socioeconomic inequalities in mortality in small areas due to several specific causes before (2001-2004, 2005-2008) and during (2009-2012) the economic crisis in seven Spanish cities.: ... ...

Abstract	Background: The aim of this study was to analyze the trend in socioeconomic inequalities in mortality in small areas due to several specific causes before (2001-2004, 2005-2008) and during (2009-2012) the economic crisis in seven Spanish cities. Methods: This ecological study of trends, with census tracts as the areas of analysis, was based on three periods. Several causes of death were studied. A socioeconomic deprivation index was calculated for each census tract. For each small area, we estimated standardized mortality ratios, and controlled for their variability using Bayesian models (sSMR). We also estimated the relative risk of mortality according to deprivation in the different cities, periods, and sexes. Results: In general, a similar geographical pattern was found for the socioeconomic deprivation index and sSMR. For men, there was an association in all cities between the deprivation index and all-cause mortality that remained stable over the three periods. For women, there was an association in Barcelona, Granada, and Sevilla between the deprivation index and all-cause mortality in the third period. Patterns by causes of death were more heterogeneous. Conclusions: After the start of the financial crisis, socioeconomic inequalities in total mortality in small areas of Spanish cities remained stable in most cities, although several causes of death showed a different pattern.
MeSH term(s)	Cause of Death ; Cities ; Economic Recession ; Female ; Geography ; Humans ; Male ; Mortality ; Sex Factors ; Socioeconomic Factors ; Spain
Language	English
Publishing date	2020-02-04
Publishing country	Switzerland
Document type	Journal Article ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
ISSN	1660-4601
ISSN (online)	1660-4601
DOI	10.3390/ijerph17030958
Database	MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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Article ; Online: Exploring the Impact of Nanoparticle Stealth Coatings in Cancer Models: From PEGylation to Cell Membrane-Coating Nanotechnology.

Graván, Pablo / Peña-Martín, Jesús / de Andrés, Julia López / Pedrosa, María / Villegas-Montoya, Martín / Galisteo-González, Francisco / Marchal, Juan A / Sánchez-Moreno, Paola

ACS applied materials & interfaces

2023 Volume 16, Issue 2, Page(s) 2058–2074

Abstract: Nanotechnological platforms offer advantages over conventional therapeutic and diagnostic modalities. However, the efficient biointerfacing of nanomaterials for biomedical applications remains challenging. In recent years, nanoparticles (NPs) with ... ...

Abstract	Nanotechnological platforms offer advantages over conventional therapeutic and diagnostic modalities. However, the efficient biointerfacing of nanomaterials for biomedical applications remains challenging. In recent years, nanoparticles (NPs) with different coatings have been developed to reduce nonspecific interactions, prolong circulation time, and improve therapeutic outcomes. This study aims to compare various NP coatings to enhance surface engineering for more effective nanomedicines. We prepared and characterized polystyrene NPs with different coatings of poly(ethylene glycol), bovine serum albumin, chitosan, and cell membranes from a human breast cancer cell line. The coating was found to affect the colloidal stability, adhesion, and elastic modulus of NPs. Protein corona formation and cellular uptake of NPs were also investigated, and a 3D tumor model was employed to provide a more realistic representation of the tumor microenvironment. The prepared NPs were found to reduce protein adsorption, and cell-membrane-coated NPs showed significantly higher cellular uptake. The secretion of proinflammatory cytokines in human monocytes after incubation with the prepared NPs was evaluated. Overall, the study demonstrates the importance of coatings in affecting the behavior and interaction of nanosystems with biological entities. The findings provide insight into bionano interactions and are important for the effective implementation of stealth surface engineering designs.
MeSH term(s)	Humans ; Cell Membrane/metabolism ; Polyethylene Glycols/metabolism ; Serum Albumin, Bovine/metabolism ; Nanoparticles/metabolism ; Nanomedicine ; Neoplasms/metabolism
Chemical Substances	Polyethylene Glycols (3WJQ0SDW1A) ; Serum Albumin, Bovine (27432CM55Q)
Language	English
Publishing date	2023-12-30
Publishing country	United States
Document type	Journal Article
ISSN	1944-8252
ISSN (online)	1944-8252
DOI	10.1021/acsami.3c13948
Database	MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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Article ; Online: Geographical Variability in Mortality in Urban Areas: A Joint Analysis of 16 Causes of Death.

Martinez-Beneito, Miguel A / Vergara-Hernández, Carlos / Botella-Rocamora, Paloma / Corpas-Burgos, Francisca / Pérez-Panadés, Jordi / Zurriaga, Óscar / Aldasoro, Elena / Borrell, Carme / Cabeza, Elena / Cirera, Lluís / Delfrade Osinaga, Josu / Fernández-Somoano, Ana / Gandarillas, Ana / Lorenzo Ruano, Pedro L / Marí-Dell'Olmo, Marc / Nolasco, Andreu / Prieto-Salceda, M Dolores / Ramis, Rebeca / Rodríguez-Sanz, Maica /

Sánchez-Villegas, Pablo / The Medea Project Group

International journal of environmental research and public health

2021 Volume 18, Issue 11

Abstract: The geographical distribution of mortality has frequently been studied. Nevertheless, those studies often consider isolated causes of death. In this work, we aim to study the geographical distribution of mortality in urban areas, in particular, in 26 ... ...

Abstract	The geographical distribution of mortality has frequently been studied. Nevertheless, those studies often consider isolated causes of death. In this work, we aim to study the geographical distribution of mortality in urban areas, in particular, in 26 Spanish cities. We perform an overall study of 16 causes of death, considering that their geographical patterns could be dependent and estimating the dependence between the causes of death. We study the deaths in these 26 cities during the period 1996-2015 at the census tract level. A multivariate disease mapping model is used in order to solve the potential small area estimation problems that these data could show. We find that most of the geographical patterns found show positive correlations. This suggests the existence of a transversal geographical pattern, common to most causes of deaths, which determines those patterns to a higher/lower extent depending on each disease. The causes of death that exhibit that underlying pattern in a more prominent manner are chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), lung cancer, and cirrhosis for men and cardiovascular diseases and dementias for women. Such findings are quite consistent for most of the cities in the study. The high positive correlation found between geographical patterns reflects the existence of both high and low-risk areas in urban settings, in general terms for nearly all the causes of death. Moreover, the high-risk areas found often coincide with neighborhoods known for their high deprivation. Our results suggest that dependence among causes of death is a key aspect to be taken into account when mapping mortality, at least in urban contexts.
MeSH term(s)	Cause of Death ; Cities ; Female ; Geography ; Humans ; Male ; Mortality ; Risk ; Socioeconomic Factors
Language	English
Publishing date	2021-05-25
Publishing country	Switzerland
Document type	Journal Article ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
ISSN	1660-4601
ISSN (online)	1660-4601
DOI	10.3390/ijerph18115664
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