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  1. Article ; Online: The stochastic world of emerging viruses.

    Gavotte, Laurent / Frutos, Roger

    PNAS nexus

    2022  Volume 1, Issue 4, Page(s) pgac185

    Abstract: The acquisition of new hosts is a fundamental mechanism by which parasitic organisms expand their host range and perpetuate themselves on an evolutionary scale. Among pathogens, viruses, due to their speed of evolution, are particularly efficient in ... ...

    Abstract The acquisition of new hosts is a fundamental mechanism by which parasitic organisms expand their host range and perpetuate themselves on an evolutionary scale. Among pathogens, viruses, due to their speed of evolution, are particularly efficient in producing new emergence events. However, even though these phenomena are particularly important to the human species and therefore specifically studied, the processes of virus emergence in a new host species are very complex and difficult to comprehend in their entirety. In order to provide a structured framework for understanding emergence in a species (including humans), a comprehensive qualitative model is an indispensable cornerstone. This model explicitly describes all the stages necessary for a virus circulating in the wild to come to the crossing of the epidemic threshold. We have therefore developed a complete descriptive model explaining all the steps necessary for a virus circulating in host populations to emerge in a new species. This description of the parameters presiding over the emergence of a new virus allows us to understand their nature and importance in the emergence process.
    Language English
    Publishing date 2022-09-12
    Publishing country England
    Document type Journal Article
    ISSN 2752-6542
    ISSN (online) 2752-6542
    DOI 10.1093/pnasnexus/pgac185
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  2. Article ; Online: Environmental spillover of emerging viruses: Is it true?

    Gavotte, Laurent / Gaucherel, Cédric / Frutos, Roger

    Environmental research

    2023  Volume 233, Page(s) 116416

    Abstract: The concept of environmental "spillover" of pathogens to humans is widely used in the scientific literature about emerging diseases with the idea that it is scientifically proven. However, the exact characterization of the mechanism of spillover is ... ...

    Abstract The concept of environmental "spillover" of pathogens to humans is widely used in the scientific literature about emerging diseases with the idea that it is scientifically proven. However, the exact characterization of the mechanism of spillover is simply lacking. A systematic review retrieved 688 articles using this term. The systematic analysis revealed an irreducible polysemy covering ten different definitions. It also demonstrated the absence of explicit definition in most of the articles, and even antinomies. A modeling analysis of the various processes described by these ten definitions showed that none of them corresponded to the complete trajectory leading to the emergence of a disease. There is no article demonstrating a mechanism of spillover. There are only ten articles proposing ideas on how a putative spillover could work but they merely are intellectual constructions. All other articles only reuse the term with no demonstration. It is essential to understand that since there is no scientific concept behind the "spillover", it might be dangerous to base public health and public protection against future pandemics on it.
    MeSH term(s) Animals ; Humans ; Zoonoses ; Communicable Diseases, Emerging/epidemiology ; Communicable Diseases, Emerging/prevention & control ; Viruses ; Public Health ; Pandemics
    Language English
    Publishing date 2023-06-13
    Publishing country Netherlands
    Document type Systematic Review ; Journal Article
    ZDB-ID 205699-9
    ISSN 1096-0953 ; 0013-9351
    ISSN (online) 1096-0953
    ISSN 0013-9351
    DOI 10.1016/j.envres.2023.116416
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  3. Article ; Online: Le virus SARS-CoV-2 n’a pas « d’origine ».

    Frutos, Roger / Gavotte, Laurent / Devaux, Christian A

    Medecine sciences : M/S

    2022  Volume 38, Issue 6-7, Page(s) 600–607

    Abstract: Since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, the question of the origin of this virus has been the subject of a vivid controversy. It is the question of the "origin" itself which is biased. Darwin showed that there is no determined origin to any animal ... ...

    Title translation SARS-CoV-2 has no origin.
    Abstract Since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, the question of the origin of this virus has been the subject of a vivid controversy. It is the question of the "origin" itself which is biased. Darwin showed that there is no determined origin to any animal or plant species, simply an evolutionary and selective process. The same is true for viruses, there is no origin, but an evolutionary process. Viruses circulate from host to host, animals or humans. Pandemic viruses are already circulating in humans and evolving before the onset of disease. This evolutionary process then continues and gives rise to successive variants. The solution is not to target the disease or the putative causative agent but rather to address the process of disease emergence.
    MeSH term(s) Animals ; COVID-19 ; Humans ; Pandemics ; SARS-CoV-2
    Language French
    Publishing date 2022-06-29
    Publishing country France
    Document type Journal Article
    ZDB-ID 632733-3
    ISSN 1958-5381 ; 0767-0974
    ISSN (online) 1958-5381
    ISSN 0767-0974
    DOI 10.1051/medsci/2022079
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  4. Article ; Online: Editorial: Dynamic of Transmissible Diseases: Integrative and Transdisciplinary Approaches.

    Frutos, Roger / Gavotte, Laurent / Serra-Cobo, Jordi / Devaux, Christian A

    Frontiers in public health

    2022  Volume 10, Page(s) 862069

    MeSH term(s) Communicable Diseases ; Humans ; Patient Care Team
    Language English
    Publishing date 2022-02-24
    Publishing country Switzerland
    Document type Editorial ; Introductory Journal Article
    ZDB-ID 2711781-9
    ISSN 2296-2565 ; 2296-2565
    ISSN (online) 2296-2565
    ISSN 2296-2565
    DOI 10.3389/fpubh.2022.862069
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  5. Article ; Online: The novel hamster-adapted SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant may be selectively advantaged in humans.

    Fantini, Jacques / Devaux, Christian A / Yahi, Nouara / Frutos, Roger

    The Journal of infection

    2022  Volume 84, Issue 5, Page(s) e53–e54

    MeSH term(s) Angiotensin-Converting Enzyme 2 ; Animals ; COVID-19 ; Cricetinae ; Humans ; Protein Binding ; SARS-CoV-2/genetics ; Spike Glycoprotein, Coronavirus
    Chemical Substances Spike Glycoprotein, Coronavirus ; spike protein, SARS-CoV-2 ; Angiotensin-Converting Enzyme 2 (EC 3.4.17.23)
    Language English
    Publishing date 2022-03-06
    Publishing country England
    Document type Letter ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
    ZDB-ID 424417-5
    ISSN 1532-2742 ; 0163-4453
    ISSN (online) 1532-2742
    ISSN 0163-4453
    DOI 10.1016/j.jinf.2022.03.001
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  6. Article ; Online: Tuberculosis Prevalence Trends from a Predictive Modelling Study - 10 High-Burden Countries, 1980-2035.

    Chen, Qiuping / Liu, Qiao / Li, Kangguo / Gavotte, Laurent / Frutos, Roger / Chen, Tianmu

    China CDC weekly

    2023  Volume 6, Issue 12, Page(s) 225–229

    Abstract: What is already known about this topic?: Given the challenges presented by drug-resistant strains of tuberculosis (TB) and the rising mobility of the population, achieving the objective of eradicating TB appears uncertain.: What is added by this ... ...

    Abstract What is already known about this topic?: Given the challenges presented by drug-resistant strains of tuberculosis (TB) and the rising mobility of the population, achieving the objective of eradicating TB appears uncertain.
    What is added by this report?: The examination of TB incidence trends in 10 high-burden countries (HBCs) indicated a steady rise in cases, with India and China jointly accounting for nearly 70% of the burden. Projections for the future show diverse trajectories in these countries, with potential difficulties in reaching the TB elimination target, especially in Nigeria, Congo, and South Africa.
    What are the implications for public health practice?: The number of TB cases is on the rise. It is crucial to learn from successful strategies to improve TB prevention and control worldwide through collaborative efforts.
    Language English
    Publishing date 2023-12-01
    Publishing country China
    Document type Journal Article
    ISSN 2096-7071
    ISSN (online) 2096-7071
    DOI 10.46234/ccdcw2024.045
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  7. Article ; Online: Editorial

    Roger Frutos / Laurent Gavotte / Jordi Serra-Cobo / Christian A. Devaux

    Frontiers in Public Health, Vol

    Dynamic of Transmissible Diseases: Integrative and Transdisciplinary Approaches

    2022  Volume 10

    Keywords infectious diseases ; integrative ; transdisciplinary ; scientific literature ; epidemic ; pandemic ; Public aspects of medicine ; RA1-1270
    Language English
    Publishing date 2022-02-01T00:00:00Z
    Publisher Frontiers Media S.A.
    Document type Article ; Online
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  8. Article ; Online: Understanding the origin of COVID-19 requires to change the paradigm on zoonotic emergence from the spillover to the circulation model.

    Frutos, Roger / Gavotte, Laurent / Devaux, Christian A

    Infection, genetics and evolution : journal of molecular epidemiology and evolutionary genetics in infectious diseases

    2021  Volume 95, Page(s) 104812

    Abstract: While the COVID-19 pandemic continues to spread with currently more than 117 million cumulated cases and 2.6 million deaths worldwide as per March 2021, its origin is still debated. Although several hypotheses have been proposed, there is still no clear ... ...

    Abstract While the COVID-19 pandemic continues to spread with currently more than 117 million cumulated cases and 2.6 million deaths worldwide as per March 2021, its origin is still debated. Although several hypotheses have been proposed, there is still no clear explanation about how its causative agent, SARS-CoV-2, emerged in human populations. Today, scientifically-valid facts that deserve to be debated still coexist with unverified statements blurring thus the knowledge on the origin of COVID-19. Our retrospective analysis of scientific data supports the hypothesis that SARS-CoV-2 is indeed a naturally occurring virus. However, the spillover model considered today as the main explanation to zoonotic emergence does not match the virus dynamics and somehow misguided the way researches were conducted. We conclude this review by proposing a change of paradigm and model and introduce the circulation model for explaining the various aspects of the dynamic of SARS-CoV-2 emergence in humans.
    MeSH term(s) Animals ; COVID-19/epidemiology ; COVID-19/transmission ; COVID-19/virology ; Chiroptera/virology ; Eutheria/virology ; Genome, Viral ; Humans ; Models, Genetic ; Models, Statistical ; Pandemics ; Retrospective Studies ; SARS-CoV-2/genetics ; SARS-CoV-2/growth & development ; SARS-CoV-2/pathogenicity ; Stochastic Processes ; Zoonoses/epidemiology ; Zoonoses/transmission ; Zoonoses/virology
    Language English
    Publishing date 2021-03-18
    Publishing country Netherlands
    Document type Journal Article ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't ; Review
    ZDB-ID 2037068-4
    ISSN 1567-7257 ; 1567-1348
    ISSN (online) 1567-7257
    ISSN 1567-1348
    DOI 10.1016/j.meegid.2021.104812
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  9. Article: Understanding the origin of COVID-19 requires to change the paradigm on zoonotic emergence from the spillover to the circulation model

    Frutos, Roger / Gavotte, Laurent / Devaux, Christian A

    Infection, genetics, and evolution. 2021 Mar. 15,

    2021  

    Abstract: While the COVID-19 pandemic continues to spread with currently more than 117 million cumulated cases and 2.6 million deaths worldwide as per March 2021, its origin is still debated. Although several hypotheses have been proposed, there is still no clear ... ...

    Abstract While the COVID-19 pandemic continues to spread with currently more than 117 million cumulated cases and 2.6 million deaths worldwide as per March 2021, its origin is still debated. Although several hypotheses have been proposed, there is still no clear explanation about how its causative agent, SARS-CoV-2, emerged in human populations. Today, scientifically-valid facts that deserve to be debated still coexist with unverified statements blurring thus the knowledge on the origin of COVID-19. Our retrospective analysis of scientific data supports the hypothesis that SARS-CoV-2 is indeed a naturally occurring virus. However, the spillover model considered today as the main explanation to zoonotic emergence does not match the virus dynamics and somehow misguided the way researches were conducted. We conclude this review by proposing a change of paradigm and model and introduce the circulation model for explaining the various aspects of the dynamic of SARS-CoV-2 emergence in humans.
    Keywords COVID-19 infection ; Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 ; etiological agents ; evolution ; genetics ; humans ; infection ; models ; retrospective studies ; viruses
    Language English
    Dates of publication 2021-0315
    Publishing place Elsevier B.V.
    Document type Article
    Note Pre-press version
    ZDB-ID 2037068-4
    ISSN 1567-1348
    ISSN 1567-1348
    DOI 10.1016/j.meegid.2021.104812
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  10. Article: Origin of COVID-19: Dismissing the Mojiang mine theory and the laboratory accident narrative

    Frutos, Roger / Javelle, Emilie / Barberot, Celine / Gavotte, Laurent / Tissot-Dupont, Herve / Devaux, Christian A.

    Environmental research. 2022 Mar., v. 204

    2022  

    Abstract: The origin of SARS-CoV-2 is still the subject of a controversial debate. The natural origin theory is confronted to the laboratory leak theory. The latter is composite and comprises contradictory theories, one being the leak of a naturally occurring ... ...

    Abstract The origin of SARS-CoV-2 is still the subject of a controversial debate. The natural origin theory is confronted to the laboratory leak theory. The latter is composite and comprises contradictory theories, one being the leak of a naturally occurring virus and the other the leak of a genetically engineered virus. The laboratory leak theory is essentially based on a publication by Rahalkar and Bahulikar in 2020 linking SARS-CoV-2 to the Mojiang mine incident in 2012 during which six miners fell sick and three died. We analyzed the clinical reports. The diagnosis is not that of COVID-19 or SARS. SARS-CoV-2 was not present in the Mojiang mine. We also bring arguments against the laboratory leak narrative.
    Keywords COVID-19 infection ; Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 ; accidents ; genetic engineering ; research ; viruses
    Language English
    Dates of publication 2022-03
    Publishing place Elsevier Inc.
    Document type Article
    ZDB-ID 205699-9
    ISSN 1096-0953 ; 0013-9351
    ISSN (online) 1096-0953
    ISSN 0013-9351
    DOI 10.1016/j.envres.2021.112141
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