Article: Individual risk evaluation for landslides: key details.
2022 Volume 19, Issue 4, Page(s) 977–991
Abstract: Risk-taking is an essential part of life. As individuals, we evaluate risks intuitively and often subconsciously by comparing the perceived risks with expected benefits. We do this so commonly that it passes unnoticed, like when we decide to speed home ... ...
Abstract | Risk-taking is an essential part of life. As individuals, we evaluate risks intuitively and often subconsciously by comparing the perceived risks with expected benefits. We do this so commonly that it passes unnoticed, like when we decide to speed home from work or go for a swim. The comparison changes, however, when one entity (such as a government) imposes a risk evaluation on another person. For example, in a quantitative risk management framework, the estimated risk is compared with a tolerable risk threshold to decide if the person is 'safe enough'. Landslide risk management methods are well established and there is consensus on tolerable life-loss risk thresholds. However, beneath this consensus lie several key details that are explored by this article, along with suggestions for refinement. Specifically, we suggest using the risk unit, micromort (one micromort equals a life loss risk of 1 in 1 million), in describing risk estimates and thresholds, to improve risk communication. For risk estimation, we provide guidance for defining and combining landslide scenarios and for recognizing where unquantified risk from low-probability/high-consequence scenarios ought to inform risk management decisions. For risk tolerance thresholds, we highlight the pitfalls of selecting unachievably low thresholds and suggest that there is no single universal threshold. Additionally, we argue that |
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Language | English |
Publishing date | 2022-01-20 |
Publishing country | Germany |
Document type | Journal Article |
ZDB-ID | 2141883-4 |
ISSN | 1612-5118 ; 1612-510X |
ISSN (online) | 1612-5118 |
ISSN | 1612-510X |
DOI | 10.1007/s10346-021-01838-8 |
Database | MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE |
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