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  1. Article: This time truly is different: The cyclical behaviour of fiscal policy during the Covid-19 crisis.

    Heimberger, Philipp

    Journal of macroeconomics

    2023  Volume 76, Page(s) 103522

    Abstract: Fiscal policy was more countercyclical during the Covid-19 crisis than in previous (crisis) episodes. This paper presents empirical evidence in favour of a "this time truly is different" moment based on analysing the cyclical behaviour of fiscal policy ... ...

    Abstract Fiscal policy was more countercyclical during the Covid-19 crisis than in previous (crisis) episodes. This paper presents empirical evidence in favour of a "this time truly is different" moment based on analysing the cyclical behaviour of fiscal policy for 28 advanced economies over 1995-2021. Discretionary fiscal policy during the Covid-19 crisis (2020-2021) did more to counteract the downturn - especially in the Eurozone -, as we do not find comparable evidence for countercyclicality during the financial crisis or Euro crisis. Automatic fiscal stabilisers, the non-discretionary domain of fiscal policy, significantly contributed to countercyclical stabilisation during the pandemic.
    Language English
    Publishing date 2023-03-21
    Publishing country United States
    Document type Journal Article
    ISSN 0164-0704
    ISSN 0164-0704
    DOI 10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103522
    Database MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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  2. Article: Potential Output, EU Fiscal Surveillance and the COVID-19 Shock.

    Heimberger, Philipp

    Inter economics

    2020  Volume 55, Issue 3, Page(s) 167–174

    Abstract: This paper discusses how the technical foundations of the EU's fiscal rules constrain the fiscal space in EU countries in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. We review the evidence on how estimates of potential output, which are at the heart of ... ...

    Abstract This paper discusses how the technical foundations of the EU's fiscal rules constrain the fiscal space in EU countries in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. We review the evidence on how estimates of potential output, which are at the heart of essential control indicators in EU fiscal surveillance, were revised in the ten years running up to the COVID-19 pandemic, and how these revisions affected the fiscal stance of EU countries. We provide first evidence for downward revisions in the European Commission's potential output estimates against the background of the COVID-19 shock across the EU27 countries, and we assess the potential consequences in terms of fiscal space. According to our results, one additional percentage point in predicted losses of actual output is associated with a loss in potential output of about 0.6 percentage points. Given the importance of model-based estimates in the EU's fiscal rules, avoiding pro-cyclical fiscal tightening will require that policymakers' hands are not tied by overly pessimistic views on the development of potential output.
    Keywords covid19
    Language English
    Publishing date 2020-06-07
    Publishing country Germany
    Document type Journal Article
    ZDB-ID 2066476-X
    ISSN 1613-964X ; 0020-5346
    ISSN (online) 1613-964X
    ISSN 0020-5346
    DOI 10.1007/s10272-020-0895-z
    Database MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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  3. Article ; Online: Potential Output, EU Fiscal Surveillance and the COVID-19 Shock

    Heimberger, Philipp

    Intereconomics

    2020  Volume 55, Issue 3, Page(s) 167–174

    Keywords Business, Management and Accounting (miscellaneous) ; Economics, Econometrics and Finance (miscellaneous) ; covid19
    Language English
    Publisher Springer Science and Business Media LLC
    Publishing country us
    Document type Article ; Online
    ZDB-ID 2066476-X
    ISSN 1613-964X ; 0020-5346
    ISSN (online) 1613-964X
    ISSN 0020-5346
    DOI 10.1007/s10272-020-0895-z
    Database BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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  4. Article: Potential Output, EU Fiscal Surveillance and the COVID-19 Shock

    Heimberger, Philipp

    Intereconomics

    Abstract: This paper discusses how the technical foundations of the EU’s fiscal rules constrain the fiscal space in EU countries in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. We review the evidence on how estimates of potential output, which are at the heart of ... ...

    Abstract This paper discusses how the technical foundations of the EU’s fiscal rules constrain the fiscal space in EU countries in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. We review the evidence on how estimates of potential output, which are at the heart of essential control indicators in EU fiscal surveillance, were revised in the ten years running up to the COVID-19 pandemic, and how these revisions affected the fiscal stance of EU countries. We provide first evidence for downward revisions in the European Commission’s potential output estimates against the background of the COVID-19 shock across the EU27 countries, and we assess the potential consequences in terms of fiscal space. According to our results, one additional percentage point in predicted losses of actual output is associated with a loss in potential output of about 0.6 percentage points. Given the importance of model-based estimates in the EU’s fiscal rules, avoiding pro-cyclical fiscal tightening will require that policymakers’ hands are not tied by overly pessimistic views on the development of potential output.
    Keywords covid19
    Publisher WHO
    Document type Article
    Note WHO #Covidence: #601162
    Database COVID19

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  5. Article ; Online: Potential Output, EU Fiscal Surveillance and the COVID-19 Shock

    Heimberger, Philipp

    2020  

    Abstract: This paper discusses how the technical foundations of the EU's fiscal rules constrain the fiscal space in EU countries in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. We review the evidence on how estimates of potential output, which are at the heart of ... ...

    Abstract This paper discusses how the technical foundations of the EU's fiscal rules constrain the fiscal space in EU countries in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. We review the evidence on how estimates of potential output, which are at the heart of essential control indicators in EU fiscal surveillance, were revised in the ten years running up to the COVID-19 pandemic, and how these revisions affected the fiscal stance of EU countries. We provide first evidence for downward revisions in the European Commission's potential output estimates against the background of the COVID-19 shock across the EU27 countries, and we assess the potential consequences in terms of fiscal space. According to our results, one additional percentage point in predicted losses of actual output is associated with a loss in potential output of about 0.6 percentage points. Given the importance of model-based estimates in the EU's fiscal rules, avoiding pro-cyclical fiscal tightening will require that policymakers' hands are not tied by overly pessimistic views on the development of potential output.
    Keywords ddc:330 ; covid19
    Subject code 336
    Language English
    Publisher Heidelberg: Springer
    Publishing country de
    Document type Article ; Online
    Database BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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  6. Book ; Article ; Online: Does employment protection affect unemployment? A meta-analysis

    Heimberger, Philipp

    2020  

    Abstract: Despite extensive research efforts, the magnitude of the effect of employment protection legislation (EPL) on unemployment remains unclear. Existing econometric estimates exhibit substantial variation, and it is therefore difficult to draw valid ... ...

    Abstract Despite extensive research efforts, the magnitude of the effect of employment protection legislation (EPL) on unemployment remains unclear. Existing econometric estimates exhibit substantial variation, and it is therefore difficult to draw valid conclusions. This paper applies meta-analysis and metaregression methods to a unique data set consisting of 881 observations on the effect of EPL on unemployment from 75 studies. Once we control for publication selection bias, we cannot reject the hypothesis that the average effect of EPL on unemployment is zero. The meta-regression analysis, which investigates sources of heterogeneity in the reported effect sizes, reveals the following main results. First, the choice of the EPL variable matters: estimates that build on survey-based EPL variables report a significantly stronger unemployment-increasing impact of EPL than estimates developed using EPL indices based on the OECD's methodology, where the latter relies on coding information from legal provisions. Second, we find that employment protection has a small unemployment-increasing effect on female unemployment, compared with a zero impact on total unemployment. Third, using multi-year averages of the underlying data tends to dampen the unemployment effects of EPL. Fourth, product market regulation is found to moderate the effect of EPL on unemployment.
    Keywords ddc:330 ; C54 ; C83 ; E24 ; Unemployment ; labour market institutions ; employment protection ; meta-analysis
    Subject code 331
    Language English
    Publisher Vienna: The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw)
    Publishing country de
    Document type Book ; Article ; Online
    Database BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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  7. Book ; Article ; Online: How far from full employment? The European unemployment problem revisited

    Gökten, Meryem / Heimberger, Philipp / Lichtenberger, Andreas

    2024  

    Abstract: This paper analyses deviations from full employment in EU countries, compared with the US and the UK. We apply the Beveridge (full-employment-consistent) rate of unemployment (BECRU), derived from the unemployment-vacancies relationship. The BECRU is the ...

    Abstract This paper analyses deviations from full employment in EU countries, compared with the US and the UK. We apply the Beveridge (full-employment-consistent) rate of unemployment (BECRU), derived from the unemployment-vacancies relationship. The BECRU is the level of unemployment that minimises the non-productive use of labour. Based on a novel dataset for the period 1970-2022, we find full employment episodes in selected EU countries (Germany, Sweden, Austria, Finland) during the 1970s. The European unemployment problem emerged in the 1980s and 1990s, as Beveridgean full employment gaps increased. In the run-up to the global financial crisis, full employment gaps declined, then increased during the Great Recession. Slack in labour markets increased initially during the pandemic. Labour markets became tighter when recovering from the COVID-19 crisis, but few countries hit full employment. Panel regressions highlight that hysteresis, labour market institutions, structural factors, macroeconomic factors and political factors contribute to explaining full employment gaps.
    Keywords ddc:330 ; E24 ; E32 ; E6 ; J63 ; J64 ; Full employment ; unemployment ; vacancies ; EU ; UK ; US
    Subject code 331
    Language English
    Publisher Vienna: The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw)
    Publishing country de
    Document type Book ; Article ; Online
    Database BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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  8. Book ; Article ; Online: Does economic globalisation affect income inequality? A meta-analysis

    Heimberger, Philipp

    2019  

    Abstract: A large volume of econometric literature has studied the impact of economic globalisation on income inequality around the world. However, reported econometric estimates vary substantially which makes it difficult to draw valid conclusions. This paper ... ...

    Abstract A large volume of econometric literature has studied the impact of economic globalisation on income inequality around the world. However, reported econometric estimates vary substantially which makes it difficult to draw valid conclusions. This paper presents a quantitative summary and analysis of existing estimates regarding the globalisation-inequality relationship. We used a new data set consisting of 1254 observations from 123 peer-reviewed papers. By applying meta-analysis and meta-regression methods, we obtained several main findings. First, globalisation has a (small-to-moderate) positive impact on income inequality considering the total population of estimates. The average effect is robustly different from zero suggesting that globalisation increases income inequality. Second, while the effect of trade globalisation is small, financial globalisation shows a more sizable and significantly stronger inequality-increasing impact. Third, the cumulative evidence rejects theoretical accounts according to which economic globalisation reduces within-country income inequality in developing countries as the meta-analysis establishes an average inequality-increasing impact in both advanced and developing countries. Fourth, education and technology moderate the impact of globalisation on income inequality. Fifth, we tested for various other factors that could cause heterogeneity in the reported estimates including differences in the econometric specifications, the income inequality measures and data set used and publication characteristics.
    Keywords ddc:330 ; D31 ; F6 ; O15 ; Globalisation ; trade openness ; financial openness ; income inequality ; meta-analysis
    Subject code 338 ; 332
    Language English
    Publisher Vienna: The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw)
    Publishing country de
    Document type Book ; Article ; Online
    Database BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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  9. Book: What explains Austria's export market performance?

    Heimberger, Philipp

    evidence based on estimating an export model over 1997-2016

    (Working paper / WIIW, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies ; 149 (September 2018))

    2018  

    Author's details Philipp Heimberger
    Series title Working paper / WIIW, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies ; 149 (September 2018)
    Language English
    Size 24 Seiten, Diagramme
    Document type Book
    Note Erscheint auch als Online-Ausgabe
    Database ECONomics Information System

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  10. Book ; Online: How Much Do Trading Partners Matter for Austria's Competitiveness and Export Performance?

    Heimberger, Philipp

    2018  

    Abstract: Based on a panel data set for 38 European countries over the period 1995-2014 and by using the definition of 'foundational competitiveness', which we operationalise as GDP per working-age individual at PPP, this paper analyses how much trading partners ... ...

    Abstract Based on a panel data set for 38 European countries over the period 1995-2014 and by using the definition of 'foundational competitiveness', which we operationalise as GDP per working-age individual at PPP, this paper analyses how much trading partners matter for the national competitiveness of European countries. Results based on a growth regression framework show that higher growth of trading partners' competitiveness has a positive impact on the growth of national competitiveness. We find evidence that there are diminishing national returns to increasingly competitive trading partners, but we cannot find strong evidence for a lock-in effect of Austria with the CESEE region. Furthermore, regression results on the determinants of the Austrian bilateral export market shares with European trading partners over 1995-2016 provide evidence that Austria's export performance is sensitive to changes in its trading partners' business cycle position, but not more sensitive than that for other selected eurozone countries.
    Keywords ddc:330 ; F14 ; L60 ; L80 ; competitiveness ; export performance ; exports ; trade ; Austria ; Europe
    Subject code 381
    Language English
    Publisher Vienna: The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw)
    Publishing country de
    Document type Book ; Online
    Database BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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