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Article ; Online: Outpatient visits and antibiotic use due to higher valency pneumococcal vaccine serotypes.

King, Laura M / Andrejko, Kristin L / Kabbani, Sarah / Tartof, Sara Y / Hicks, Lauri A / Cohen, Adam L / Kobayashi, Miwako / Lewnard, Joseph A

The Journal of infectious diseases

2024

Abstract: Background: In 2022-2023, 15- and 20-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCV15/PCV20) were recommended for infants. We aimed to estimate the incidence of outpatient visits and antibiotic prescriptions in U.S. children (≤17 years) from 2016-2019 for ... ...

Abstract	Background: In 2022-2023, 15- and 20-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCV15/PCV20) were recommended for infants. We aimed to estimate the incidence of outpatient visits and antibiotic prescriptions in U.S. children (≤17 years) from 2016-2019 for acute otitis media, pneumonia, and sinusitis associated with PCV15- and PCV20-additional (non-PCV13) serotypes to quantify PCV15/20 potential impacts. Methods: We estimated the incidence of PCV15/20-additional serotype-attributable visits and antibiotic prescriptions as the product of all-cause incidence rates, derived from national healthcare surveys and MarketScan databases, and PCV15/20-additional serotype-attributable fractions. We estimated serotype-specific attributable fractions using modified vaccine-probe approaches incorporating incidence changes post-PCV13 and ratios of PCV13 versus PCV15/20 serotype frequencies, estimated through meta-analyses. Results: Per 1000 children annually, PCV15-additional serotypes accounted for an estimated 2.7 (95% confidence interval 1.8-3.9) visits and 2.4 (1.6-3.4) antibiotic prescriptions. PCV20-additional serotypes resulted in 15.0 (11.2-20.4) visits and 13.2 (9.9-18.0) antibiotic prescriptions annually per 1,000 children. PCV15/20-additional serotypes account for 0.4% (0.2-0.6%) and 2.1% (1.5-3.0%) of pediatric outpatient antibiotic use. Conclusions: Compared with PCV15-additional serotypes, PCV20-additional serotypes account for >5 times the burden of visits and antibiotic prescriptions. Higher-valency PCVs, especially PCV20, may contribute to preventing pediatric pneumococcal respiratory infections and antibiotic use.
Language	English
Publishing date	2024-03-18
Publishing country	United States
Document type	Journal Article
ZDB-ID	3019-3
ISSN	1537-6613 ; 0022-1899
ISSN (online)	1537-6613
ISSN	0022-1899
DOI	10.1093/infdis/jiae142
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Article ; Online: Model-based assessment of SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant transmission dynamics within partially vaccinated K-12 school populations.

Head, Jennifer R / Andrejko, Kristin L / Remais, Justin V

Lancet regional health. Americas

2021 Volume 5, Page(s) 100133

Abstract: Background: We examined school reopening policies amidst ongoing transmission of the highly transmissible Delta variant, accounting for vaccination among individuals ≥12 years.: Methods: We collected data on social contacts among school-aged children ...

Abstract	Background: We examined school reopening policies amidst ongoing transmission of the highly transmissible Delta variant, accounting for vaccination among individuals ≥12 years. Methods: We collected data on social contacts among school-aged children in the California Bay Area and developed an individual-based transmission model to simulate transmission of the Delta variant of SARS-CoV-2 in schools. We evaluated the additional infections in students and teachers/staff resulting over a 128-day semester from in-school instruction compared to remote instruction when various NPIs (mask use, cohorts, and weekly testing of students/teachers) were implemented, across various community-wide vaccination coverages (50%, 60%, 70%), and student (≥12 years) and teacher/staff vaccination coverages (50% - 95%). Findings: At 70% vaccination coverage, universal masking reduced infections by >57% among students. Masking plus 70% vaccination coverage enabled achievement of <50 excess cases per 1,000 students/teachers, but stricter risk tolerances, such as <25 excess infections per 1,000 students/teachers, required a cohort approach in elementary and middle school populations. In the absence of NPIs, increasing the vaccination coverage of community members from 50% to 70% or elementary teachers from 70% to 95% reduced the excess rate of infection among elementary school students attributable to school transmission by 24% and 37%, respectively. Interpretations: Amidst Delta variant circulation, we found that schools are not inherently low risk, yet can be made so with high community vaccination coverages and masking. Vaccination of adults protects unvaccinated children. Funding: National Science Foundation grant no. 2032210; National Institutes of Health grant nos. R01AI125842 and R01AI148336; MIDAS Coordination Center (MIDASSUP2020-4).
Language	English
Publishing date	2021-11-25
Publishing country	England
Document type	Journal Article
ISSN	2667-193X
ISSN (online)	2667-193X
DOI	10.1016/j.lana.2021.100133
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Article ; Online: Longitudinal social contacts among school-aged children during the COVID-19 pandemic: the Bay Area Contacts among Kids (BACK) study.

Andrejko, Kristin L / Head, Jennifer R / Lewnard, Joseph A / Remais, Justin V

BMC infectious diseases

2022 Volume 22, Issue 1, Page(s) 242

Abstract: Background: The San Francisco Bay Area was the first region in the United States to enact school closures to mitigate SARS-CoV-2 transmission. The effects of closures on contact patterns for schoolchildren and their household members remain poorly ... ...

Abstract	Background: The San Francisco Bay Area was the first region in the United States to enact school closures to mitigate SARS-CoV-2 transmission. The effects of closures on contact patterns for schoolchildren and their household members remain poorly understood. Methods: We conducted serial cross-sectional surveys (May 2020, September 2020, February 2021) of Bay Area households with children to estimate age-structured daily contact rates for children and their adult household members. We examined changes in contact rates over the course of the COVID-19 pandemic, including after vaccination of household members, and compared contact patterns by household demographics using generalized estimating equations clustered by household. Results: We captured contact histories for 1,967 households on behalf of 2,674 children, comprising 15,087 non-household contacts over the three waves of data collection. Shortly after the start of shelter-in-place orders in May 2020, daily contact rates were higher among children from Hispanic families (1.52 more contacts per child per day; [95% CI: 1.14-2.04]), households whose parents were unable to work from home (1.82; [1.40-2.40]), and households with income < $150,000 (1.75; [1.33-2.33]), after adjusting for other demographic characteristics and household clustering. Between May and August 2020, non-household contacts of children increased by 145% (ages 5-12) and 172% (ages 13-17), despite few children returning to in-person instruction. Non-household contact rates among children were higher-by 1.75 [1.28-2.40] and 1.42 [0.89-2.24] contacts per child per day in 5-12 and 13-17 age groups, respectively, in households where at least one adult was vaccinated against COVID-19, compared to children's contact rates in unvaccinated households. Conclusions: Child contact rates rebounded despite schools remaining closed, as parents obtained childcare, children engaged in contact in non-school settings, and family members were vaccinated. The waning reductions observed in non-household contact rates of schoolchildren and their family members during a prolonged school closure suggests the strategy may be ineffective for long-term SARS-CoV-2 transmission mitigation. Reductions in age-assortative contacts were not as apparent amongst children from lower income households or households where adults could not work from home. Heterogeneous reductions in contact patterns raise concerning racial, ethnic and income-based inequities associated with long-term school closures as a COVID-19 mitigation strategy.
MeSH term(s)	Adolescent ; Adult ; COVID-19/epidemiology ; COVID-19/prevention & control ; Child ; Child, Preschool ; Cross-Sectional Studies ; Humans ; Influenza, Human/epidemiology ; Pandemics ; SARS-CoV-2 ; United States
Language	English
Publishing date	2022-03-10
Publishing country	England
Document type	Journal Article
ZDB-ID	2041550-3
ISSN	1471-2334 ; 1471-2334
ISSN (online)	1471-2334
ISSN	1471-2334
DOI	10.1186/s12879-022-07218-4
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Article: Model-based assessment of SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant transmission dynamics within partially vaccinated K-12 school populations.

Head, Jennifer R / Andrejko, Kristin L / Remais, Justin V

medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences

2021

Abstract: Background: We examined school reopening policies amidst rising transmission of the highly transmissible Delta variant, accounting for vaccination among individuals aged 12 years and older, with the goal of characterizing risk to students and teachers ... ...

Abstract	Background: We examined school reopening policies amidst rising transmission of the highly transmissible Delta variant, accounting for vaccination among individuals aged 12 years and older, with the goal of characterizing risk to students and teachers under various within-school non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) combined with specific vaccination coverage levels. Methods: We developed an individual-based transmission model to simulate transmission of the Delta variant of SARS-CoV-2 among a synthetic population, representative of Bay Area cities. We parameterized the model using community contact rates from vaccinated households ascertained from a household survey of Bay Area families with children conducted between February - April, 2021. Interventions and outcomes: We evaluated the additional infections in students and teachers/staff resulting over a 128-day semester from in-school instruction compared to remote instruction when various NPIs (mask use, cohorts, and weekly testing of students/teachers) were implemented in schools, across various community-wide vaccination coverages (50%, 60%, 70%), and student (≥12 years) and teacher/staff vaccination coverages (50% - 95%). We quantified the added benefit of universal masking over masking among unvaccinated students and teachers, across varying levels of vaccine effectiveness (45%, 65%, 85%), and compared results between Delta and Alpha variant circulation. Results: The Delta variant sharply increases the risk of within-school COVID-transmission when compared to the Alpha variant. In our highest risk scenario (50% community and within-school vaccine coverage, no within-school NPIs, and predominant circulation of the Delta variant), we estimated that an elementary school could see 33-65 additional symptomatic cases of COVID-19 over a four-month semester (depending on the relative susceptibility of children <10 years). In contrast, under the Bay Area reopening plan (universal mask use, community and school vaccination coverage of 70%), we estimated excess symptomatic infection attributable to school reopening among 2.0-9.7% of elementary students (8-36 excess symptomatic cases per school over the semester), 3.0% of middle school students (13 cases per school) and 0.4% of high school students (3 cases per school). Excess rates among teachers attributable to reopening were similar. Achievement of lower risk tolerances, such as <5 excess infections per 1,000 students or teachers, required a cohort approach in elementary and middle school populations. In the absence of NPIs, increasing the vaccination coverage of community members from 50% to 70% or elementary teachers from 70% to 95% reduced the estimated excess rate of infection among elementary school students attributable to school transmission by 24% and 41%, respectively. We estimated that with 70% coverage of the eligible community and school population with a vaccine that is ≤65% effective, universal masking can avert more cases than masking of unvaccinated persons alone. Conclusions: Amidst circulation of the Delta variant, our findings demonstrated that schools are not inherently low risk, yet can be made so with high community vaccination coverages and universal masking. Vaccination of adult community members and teachers protects unvaccinated elementary and middle school children. Elementary and middle schools that can support additional interventions, such as cohorts and testing, should consider doing so, particularly if additional studies find that younger children are equally as susceptible as adults to the Delta variant of SARS-CoV-2. Limitations: We did not consider the effect of social distancing in classrooms, or variation in testing frequency, and considerable uncertainty remains in key transmission parameters.
Language	English
Publishing date	2021-08-23
Publishing country	United States
Document type	Preprint
DOI	10.1101/2021.08.20.21262389
Database	MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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Article: Pediatric outpatient visits and antibiotic use attributable to higher valency pneumococcal conjugate vaccine serotypes.

King, Laura M / Andrejko, Kristin L / Kabbani, Sarah / Tartof, Sara Y / Hicks, Lauri A / Cohen, Adam L / Kobayashi, Miwako / Lewnard, Joseph A

medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences

2023

Abstract: Importance: Streptococcus pneumoniae: Objective: To estimate the incidence of outpatient visits and antibiotic prescriptions in U.S. children for acute otitis media, pneumonia, and sinusitis associated with PCV15- and PCV20-additional serotypes (non- ... ...

Abstract	Importance: Streptococcus pneumoniae Objective: To estimate the incidence of outpatient visits and antibiotic prescriptions in U.S. children for acute otitis media, pneumonia, and sinusitis associated with PCV15- and PCV20-additional serotypes (non-PCV13 serotypes) to quantify potential impacts of PCV15/20 on outpatient visits and antibiotic prescriptions for these conditions. Design: Multi-component study including descriptive analyses of cross-sectional and cohort data on outpatient visits and antibiotic prescriptions from 2016-2019 and meta-analyses of pneumococcal serotype distribution in non-invasive respiratory infections. Setting: Outpatient visits and antibiotic prescriptions among U.S. children. Participants: Pediatric visits and antibiotic prescriptions among children captured in the National Ambulatory Medical Care Survey (NAMCS), the National Hospital Ambulatory Medicare Care Survey (NHAMCS), and Merative MarketScan, collectively representing healthcare delivery across all outpatient settings. Incidence denominators estimated using census (NAMCS/NHAMCS) and enrollment (MarketScan) data. Main outcomes and measures: Pediatric outpatient visit and antibiotic prescription incidence for acute otitis media, pneumonia, and sinusitis associated with PCV15/20-additional serotypes. Results: We estimated that per 1000 children annually, PCV15-additional serotypes accounted for 2.7 (95% confidence interval 1.8-3.9) visits and 2.4 (1.6-3.4) antibiotic prescriptions. PCV20-additional serotypes resulted in 15.0 (11.2-20.4) visits and 13.2 (9.9-18.0) antibiotic prescriptions annually per 1,000 children. Projected to national counts, PCV15/20-additional serotypes account for 173,000 (118,000-252,000) and 968,000 (722,000-1,318,000) antibiotic prescriptions among U.S. children each year, translating to 0.4% (0.2-0.6%) and 2.1% (1.5-3.0%) of all outpatient antibiotic use among children. Conclusions and relevance: PCV15/20-additional serotypes account for a large burden of pediatric outpatient healthcare utilization. Compared with PCV15-additional serotypes, PCV20-additional serotypes account for >5 times the burden of visits and antibiotic prescriptions. These higher-valency PCVs, especially PCV20, may contribute to preventing ARIs and antibiotic use in children.
Language	English
Publishing date	2023-08-25
Publishing country	United States
Document type	Preprint
DOI	10.1101/2023.08.24.23294570
Database	MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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Article ; Online: Real-world uptake of COVID-19 vaccination among individuals expressing vaccine hesitancy: A registry-linkage study

Andrejko, Kristin L. / Myers, Jennifer F. / Fukui, Nozomi / Nelson, Lauren / Zhao, Rui / Openshaw, John / Watt, James P. / Jain, Seema / Lewnard, Joseph A. / Pry, Jake M.

Vaccine. 2023 Feb. 01,

2023

Abstract: Uptake of COVID-19 vaccination remains suboptimal in the United States and other settings. Though early reports indicated that a strong majority of people were interested in receiving the COVID-19 vaccine, the association between vaccine intention and ... ...

Institution	on behalf of the California COVID-19 Case-Control Study Team
Abstract	Uptake of COVID-19 vaccination remains suboptimal in the United States and other settings. Though early reports indicated that a strong majority of people were interested in receiving the COVID-19 vaccine, the association between vaccine intention and uptake is not yet fully understood. Ourobjective was todescribe predictors of vaccine uptake, and estimate the sensitivity, specificity, and predictive values of self-reported COVID-19 vaccine status compared to a comprehensive statewide COVID-19 vaccine registry. A cohort of California residents that received a molecular test for SARS-CoV-2 infection during 24 February-5 December 2021 were enrolled in a telephone-administered survey. Survey participants were matched with records in a statewide immunization registry. Cox proportional hazards model were used to compare time to vaccination among those unvaccinated at survey enrollment by self-reported COVID-19 vaccination intention. Among 864 participants who were unvaccinated at the time of interview, 272 (31%) had documentation of receipt of COVID-19 vaccination at a later date; including 194/423 (45.9%) who had initially reported being willing to receive vaccination, 41/185 (22.2%) who reported being unsure about vaccination, and 37/278 (13.3%) who reported unwillingness to receive vaccination.Adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs) for registry-confirmed COVID-19 vaccination were 0.49 (95% confidence interval: 0.32-0.76) and 0.21 (0.12-0.36) for participants expressing uncertainty and unwillingness to receive vaccination, respectively, as compared with participants who reported being willing to receive vaccination. Time to vaccination was shorter among participants from higher-income households (aHR = 3.30 [2.02-5.39]) and who reported co-morbidities or immunocompromising conditions (aHR = 1.54 [1.01-2.36]).Sensitivity of self-reported COVID-19 vaccination status was 82% (80-85%) overall, and 98% (97-99%) among those referencing vaccination records; specificity was 87% (86-89%). Willingness to receive COVID-19 vaccination was an imperfect predictor of real-world vaccine uptake. Improved messaging about COVID-19 vaccination regardless of previous SARS-CoV-2 infection status may help improve uptake.
Keywords	COVID-19 infection ; Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 ; confidence interval ; models ; people ; surveys ; uncertainty ; vaccination ; vaccines ; California ; Covid-19 ; Flu ; Influenza ; Vaccine ; Self-report ; Vaccine hesitancy ; Vaccine registry ; SARS-COV-2
Language	English
Dates of publication	2023-0201
Size	p. 1649-1656.
Publishing place	Elsevier Ltd
Document type	Article ; Online
Note	Pre-press version ; Use and reproduction
ZDB-ID	605674-x
ISSN	1873-2518 ; 0264-410X
ISSN (online)	1873-2518
ISSN	0264-410X
DOI	10.1016/j.vaccine.2023.01.066
Database	NAL-Catalogue (AGRICOLA)

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Article ; Online: Model-based assessment of SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant transmission dynamics within partially vaccinated K-12 school populations

Head, Jennifer R / Andrejko, Kristin L / Remais, Justin V

medRxiv

Abstract: Abstract Background: We examined school reopening policies amidst rising transmission of the highly transmissible Delta variant, accounting for vaccination among individuals aged 12 years and older, with the goal of characterizing risk to students and ... ...

Abstract	Abstract Background: We examined school reopening policies amidst rising transmission of the highly transmissible Delta variant, accounting for vaccination among individuals aged 12 years and older, with the goal of characterizing risk to students and teachers under various within-school non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) combined with specific vaccination coverage levels. Methods: We developed an individual-based transmission model to simulate transmission of the Delta variant of SARS-CoV-2 among a synthetic population, representative of Bay Area cities. We parameterized the model using community contact rates from vaccinated households ascertained from a household survey of Bay Area families with children conducted between February - April, 2021. Interventions and outcomes: We evaluated the additional infections in students and teachers/staff resulting over a 128-day semester from in-school instruction compared to remote instruction when various NPIs (mask use, cohorts, and weekly testing of students/teachers) were implemented in schools, across various community-wide vaccination coverages (50%, 60%, 70%), and student (≥12 years) and teacher/staff vaccination coverages (50% - 95%). We quantified the added benefit of universal masking over masking among unvaccinated students and teachers, across varying levels of vaccine effectiveness (45%, 65%, 85%), and compared results between Delta and Alpha variant circulation. Results: The Delta variant sharply increases the risk of within-school COVID transmission when compared to the Alpha variant. In our highest risk scenario (50% community and within-school vaccine coverage, no within-school NPIs, and predominant circulation of the Delta variant), we estimated that an elementary school could see 33-65 additional symptomatic cases of COVID-19 over a four-month semester (depending on the relative susceptibility of children <10 years). In contrast, under the Bay Area reopening plan (universal mask use, community and school vaccination coverage of 70%), we estimated excess symptomatic infection attributable to school reopening among 2.0-9.7% of elementary students (8-36 excess symptomatic cases per school over the semester), 3.0% of middle school students (13 cases per school) and 0.4% of high school students (3 cases per school). Excess rates among teachers attributable to reopening were similar. Achievement of lower risk tolerances, such as <5 excess infections per 1,000 students or teachers, required a cohort approach in elementary and middle school populations. In the absence of NPIs, increasing the vaccination coverage of community members from 50% to 70% or elementary teachers from 70% to 95% reduced the estimated excess rate of infection among elementary school students attributable to school transmission by 24% and 41%, respectively. We estimated that with 70% coverage of the eligible community and school population with a vaccine that is <65% effective, universal masking can avert more cases than masking of unvaccinated persons alone. Conclusions: Amidst circulation of the Delta variant, our findings demonstrated that schools are not inherently low risk, yet can be made so with high community vaccination coverages and universal masking. Vaccination of adult community members and teachers protects unvaccinated elementary and middle school children. Elementary and middle schools that can support additional interventions, such as cohorts and testing, should consider doing so, particularly if additional studies find that younger children are equally as susceptible as adults to the Delta variant of SARS-CoV-2. Limitations: We did not consider the effect of social distancing in classrooms, or variation in testing frequency, and considerable uncertainty remains in key transmission parameters.
Keywords	covid19
Language	English
Publishing date	2021-08-23
Publisher	Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press
Document type	Article ; Online
DOI	10.1101/2021.08.20.21262389
Database	COVID19

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Article ; Online: Model-based assessment of SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant transmission dynamics within partially vaccinated K-12 school populations

Jennifer R. Head, MPH / Kristin L. Andrejko, BS / Justin V. Remais, PhD

The Lancet Regional Health. Americas, Vol 5, Iss , Pp 100133- (2022)

2022

Abstract: Summary: Background: We examined school reopening policies amidst ongoing transmission of the highly transmissible Delta variant, accounting for vaccination among individuals ≥12 years. Methods: We collected data on social contacts among school-aged ... ...

Abstract	Summary: Background: We examined school reopening policies amidst ongoing transmission of the highly transmissible Delta variant, accounting for vaccination among individuals ≥12 years. Methods: We collected data on social contacts among school-aged children in the California Bay Area and developed an individual-based transmission model to simulate transmission of the Delta variant of SARS-CoV-2 in schools. We evaluated the additional infections in students and teachers/staff resulting over a 128-day semester from in-school instruction compared to remote instruction when various NPIs (mask use, cohorts, and weekly testing of students/teachers) were implemented, across various community-wide vaccination coverages (50%, 60%, 70%), and student (≥12 years) and teacher/staff vaccination coverages (50% - 95%). Findings: At 70% vaccination coverage, universal masking reduced infections by >57% among students. Masking plus 70% vaccination coverage enabled achievement of <50 excess cases per 1,000 students/teachers, but stricter risk tolerances, such as <25 excess infections per 1,000 students/teachers, required a cohort approach in elementary and middle school populations. In the absence of NPIs, increasing the vaccination coverage of community members from 50% to 70% or elementary teachers from 70% to 95% reduced the excess rate of infection among elementary school students attributable to school transmission by 24% and 37%, respectively. Interpretations: Amidst Delta variant circulation, we found that schools are not inherently low risk, yet can be made so with high community vaccination coverages and masking. Vaccination of adults protects unvaccinated children. Funding: National Science Foundation grant no. 2032210; National Institutes of Health grant nos. R01AI125842 and R01AI148336; MIDAS Coordination Center (MIDASSUP2020-4).
Keywords	COVID-19 ; SARS-CoV-2 ; schools ; vaccination ; masks ; transmission model ; Public aspects of medicine ; RA1-1270
Subject code	370
Language	English
Publishing date	2022-01-01T00:00:00Z
Publisher	Elsevier
Document type	Article ; Online
Database	BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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Article ; Online: Contribution and quality of mathematical modeling evidence in World Health Organization guidelines: A systematic review.

Lo, Nathan C / Andrejko, Kristin / Shukla, Poojan / Baker, Tess / Sawin, Veronica Ivey / Norris, Susan L / Lewnard, Joseph A

Epidemics

2022 Volume 39, Page(s) 100570

Abstract: Mathematical modeling studies are frequently conducted to guide policy in global health. However, the contribution of mathematical modeling studies to World Health Organization (WHO) guideline recommendations, and the quality of evidence contributed by ... ...

Abstract	Mathematical modeling studies are frequently conducted to guide policy in global health. However, the contribution of mathematical modeling studies to World Health Organization (WHO) guideline recommendations, and the quality of evidence contributed by these studies remains unknown. We conducted a systematic review of the WHO Guidelines Review Committee database to identify guideline recommendations that included evidence from mathematical modeling studies since inception of the Guidelines Review Committee on 1 December, 2007. We included WHO guideline recommendations citing a mathematical modeling study in the primary evidence base. We defined a mathematical model as a framework that predicted epidemiologic, health or economic impact of an intervention or decision in the clinical or public health context. The primary outcome was inclusion of evidence from mathematical modeling studies in a guideline recommendation. We evaluated each unique modeling study across multiple domains of quality. Between 1 December 2007 and 1 April 2019, the WHO Guidelines Review Committee approved 154 guidelines providing 1619 guideline recommendations. Mathematical modeling studies informed 46 WHO guidelines (29.9%) and 101 unique guideline recommendations (6.2%). Modeling evidence addressed topics related to infectious diseases in 38 guidelines (82.6%) and 81 recommendations (80.2%), most commonly for HIV and tuberculosis. Evidence from modeling studies was assessed in the GRADE evidence profile for 12 recommendations (12.9%) and GRADE evidence-to-decision framework for 45 recommendations (44.6%). Modeling-informed recommendations were more likely than other recommendations within the same guidelines to be issued with a "conditional" rather than "strong" strength of recommendation (53.5% versus 37.8%), and the evidence underlying modeling-informed recommendations was more likely to be assessed as very low quality (41.6% versus 24.1%). Upon review of individual modeling studies, we estimated that 33.8% of models performed a calibration, 29.4% of models performed a validation of results, and 20.6% of models reported a change in the study conclusion in the sensitivity analysis. While policy recommendations in WHO guidelines are informed by evidence from modeling studies, the validity of modeling studies included in guidelines development is heterogeneous. Quality assessment is needed to support the evaluation and incorporation of evidence from mathematical modeling studies in guidelines development.
MeSH term(s)	Calibration ; Evidence-Based Medicine/methods ; Models, Theoretical ; Public Health ; World Health Organization
Language	English
Publishing date	2022-04-30
Publishing country	Netherlands
Document type	Journal Article ; Systematic Review ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
ZDB-ID	2467993-8
ISSN	1878-0067 ; 1755-4365
ISSN (online)	1878-0067
ISSN	1755-4365
DOI	10.1016/j.epidem.2022.100570
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Article ; Online: Real-world uptake of COVID-19 vaccination among individuals expressing vaccine hesitancy: A registry-linkage study.

Andrejko, Kristin L / Myers, Jennifer F / Fukui, Nozomi / Nelson, Lauren / Zhao, Rui / Openshaw, John / Watt, James P / Jain, Seema / Lewnard, Joseph A / Pry, Jake M

Vaccine

2023 Volume 41, Issue 10, Page(s) 1649–1656

Abstract: Introduction: Uptake of COVID-19 vaccination remains suboptimal in the United States and other settings. Though early reports indicated that a strong majority of people were interested in receiving the COVID-19 vaccine, the association between vaccine ... ...

Abstract	Introduction: Uptake of COVID-19 vaccination remains suboptimal in the United States and other settings. Though early reports indicated that a strong majority of people were interested in receiving the COVID-19 vaccine, the association between vaccine intention and uptake is not yet fully understood. Ourobjective was todescribe predictors of vaccine uptake, and estimate the sensitivity, specificity, and predictive values of self-reported COVID-19 vaccine status compared to a comprehensive statewide COVID-19 vaccine registry. Methods: A cohort of California residents that received a molecular test for SARS-CoV-2 infection during 24 February-5 December 2021 were enrolled in a telephone-administered survey. Survey participants were matched with records in a statewide immunization registry. Cox proportional hazards model were used to compare time to vaccination among those unvaccinated at survey enrollment by self-reported COVID-19 vaccination intention. Results: Among 864 participants who were unvaccinated at the time of interview, 272 (31%) had documentation of receipt of COVID-19 vaccination at a later date; including 194/423 (45.9%) who had initially reported being willing to receive vaccination, 41/185 (22.2%) who reported being unsure about vaccination, and 37/278 (13.3%) who reported unwillingness to receive vaccination.Adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs) for registry-confirmed COVID-19 vaccination were 0.49 (95% confidence interval: 0.32-0.76) and 0.21 (0.12-0.36) for participants expressing uncertainty and unwillingness to receive vaccination, respectively, as compared with participants who reported being willing to receive vaccination. Time to vaccination was shorter among participants from higher-income households (aHR = 3.30 [2.02-5.39]) and who reported co-morbidities or immunocompromising conditions (aHR = 1.54 [1.01-2.36]).Sensitivity of self-reported COVID-19 vaccination status was 82% (80-85%) overall, and 98% (97-99%) among those referencing vaccination records; specificity was 87% (86-89%). Conclusion: Willingness to receive COVID-19 vaccination was an imperfect predictor of real-world vaccine uptake. Improved messaging about COVID-19 vaccination regardless of previous SARS-CoV-2 infection status may help improve uptake.
MeSH term(s)	Humans ; COVID-19 Vaccines ; Vaccination Hesitancy ; COVID-19 ; SARS-CoV-2 ; Vaccination ; Registries
Chemical Substances	COVID-19 Vaccines
Language	English
Publishing date	2023-02-01
Publishing country	Netherlands
Document type	Journal Article ; Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural ; Research Support, U.S. Gov't, P.H.S.
ZDB-ID	605674-x
ISSN	1873-2518 ; 0264-410X
ISSN (online)	1873-2518
ISSN	0264-410X
DOI	10.1016/j.vaccine.2023.01.066
Database	MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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Zs.A 1930: Show issues			Location: Je nach Verfügbarkeit (siehe Angabe bei Bestand) bis Jg. 1994: Bestellungen von Artikeln über das Online-Bestellformular Jg. 1995 - 2021: Lesesall (1.OG) ab Jg. 2022: Lesesaal (EG)
Zs.MO 458: Show issues

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