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  1. Article ; Online: ANTICIPATING RACIAL/ETHNIC MORTALITY DISPLACEMENT FROM COVID-19.

    Kissler, Stephen M / Grad, Yonatan H

    American journal of epidemiology

    2022  Volume 191, Issue 8, Page(s) 1519–1520

    MeSH term(s) COVID-19 ; Ethnicity ; Health Status Disparities ; Humans ; Racial Groups ; United States/epidemiology
    Language English
    Publishing date 2022-04-06
    Publishing country United States
    Document type Journal Article ; Research Support, U.S. Gov't, P.H.S.
    ZDB-ID 2937-3
    ISSN 1476-6256 ; 0002-9262
    ISSN (online) 1476-6256
    ISSN 0002-9262
    DOI 10.1093/aje/kwac079
    Database MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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    In stock of ZB MED Cologne/Königswinter

    Un I Zs.310: Show issues Location:
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    bis Jg. 2021: Bestellungen von Artikeln über das Online-Bestellformular
    ab Jg. 2022: Lesesaal (EG)

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  2. Article ; Online: Optimal environmental testing frequency for outbreak surveillance.

    Olejarz, Jason W / Roster, Kirstin I Oliveira / Kissler, Stephen M / Lipsitch, Marc / Grad, Yonatan H

    Epidemics

    2024  Volume 46, Page(s) 100750

    Abstract: Public health surveillance for pathogens presents an optimization problem: we require enough sampling to identify intervention-triggering shifts in pathogen epidemiology, such as new introductions or sudden increases in prevalence, but not so much that ... ...

    Abstract Public health surveillance for pathogens presents an optimization problem: we require enough sampling to identify intervention-triggering shifts in pathogen epidemiology, such as new introductions or sudden increases in prevalence, but not so much that costs due to surveillance itself outweigh those from pathogen-associated illness. To determine this optimal sampling frequency, we developed a general mathematical model for the introduction of a new pathogen that, once introduced, increases in prevalence exponentially. Given the relative cost of infection vs. sampling, we derived equations for the expected combined cost per unit time of disease burden and surveillance for a specified sampling frequency, and thus the sampling frequency for which the expected total cost per unit time is lowest.
    MeSH term(s) Disease Outbreaks ; Public Health Surveillance
    Language English
    Publishing date 2024-02-15
    Publishing country Netherlands
    Document type Journal Article
    ZDB-ID 2467993-8
    ISSN 1878-0067 ; 1755-4365
    ISSN (online) 1878-0067
    ISSN 1755-4365
    DOI 10.1016/j.epidem.2024.100750
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  3. Article ; Online: Spatiotemporal Trends in Group A Streptococcal Pharyngitis in the United States.

    Kline, Madeleine C / Kissler, Stephen M / Whittles, Lilith K / Barnett, Michael L / Grad, Yonatan H

    Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America

    2024  

    Abstract: Background: Group A Streptococcus (GAS) causes an estimated 5.2 million outpatient visits for pharyngitis annually in the United States (U.S.) with incidence peaking in winter, but the annual spatiotemporal pattern of GAS pharyngitis across the U.S. is ... ...

    Abstract Background: Group A Streptococcus (GAS) causes an estimated 5.2 million outpatient visits for pharyngitis annually in the United States (U.S.) with incidence peaking in winter, but the annual spatiotemporal pattern of GAS pharyngitis across the U.S. is poorly characterized.
    Methods: We used outpatient claims data from individuals with private medical insurance between 2010-2018 to quantify GAS pharyngitis visit rates across U.S. census regions, subregions, and states. We evaluated seasonal and age-based patterns of geographic spread and the association between school start dates and the summertime upward inflection in GAS visits.
    Results: The South had the most visits per person (yearly average 39.11 visits per 1000 people, 95% CI: 36.21-42.01), and the West had the fewest (yearly average 17.63 visits per 1000 people, 95% CI: 16.76-18.49). Visits increased earliest in the South and in school-age children. Differences in visits between the South and other regions were most pronounced in the late summer through early winter. Visits peaked earliest in central southern states, in December to January, and latest on the coasts, in March. The onset of the rise in GAS pharyngitis visits correlated with, but preceded, average school start times.
    Conclusions: The burden and timing of GAS pharyngitis varied across the continental U.S., with the South experiencing the highest overall rates and earliest onset and peak in outpatient visits. Understanding the drivers of these regional differences in GAS pharyngitis will help in identifying and targeting prevention measures.
    Language English
    Publishing date 2024-02-19
    Publishing country United States
    Document type Journal Article
    ZDB-ID 1099781-7
    ISSN 1537-6591 ; 1058-4838
    ISSN (online) 1537-6591
    ISSN 1058-4838
    DOI 10.1093/cid/ciae083
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    In stock of ZB MED Cologne/Königswinter

    Zs.A 1505: Show issues Location:
    Je nach Verfügbarkeit (siehe Angabe bei Bestand)
    bis Jg. 1994: Bestellungen von Artikeln über das Online-Bestellformular
    Jg. 1995 - 2021: Lesesall (1.OG)
    ab Jg. 2022: Lesesaal (EG)
    Zs.MO 480: Show issues

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  4. Article ; Online: Ending the HIV epidemic in the USA.

    Nichols, Brooke E / Kissler, Stephen M

    The lancet. HIV

    2020  Volume 7, Issue 7, Page(s) e454–e455

    MeSH term(s) Cities ; Epidemics ; HIV ; HIV Infections/epidemiology ; Humans ; Models, Economic ; United States
    Language English
    Publishing date 2020-03-05
    Publishing country Netherlands
    Document type Journal Article ; Comment
    ISSN 2352-3018
    ISSN (online) 2352-3018
    DOI 10.1016/S2352-3018(20)30051-5
    Database MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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  5. Article ; Online: Drivers of Geographic Patterns in Outpatient Antibiotic Prescribing in the United States.

    Kissler, Stephen M / Oliveira Roster, Kirstin I / Petherbridge, Rachel / Mehrotra, Ateev / Barnett, Michael L / Grad, Yonatan H

    Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America

    2024  

    Abstract: In a retrospective, ecological analysis of US medical claims, visit rates explained more of the geographic variation in outpatient antibiotic prescribing rates than per-visit prescribing. Efforts to reduce antibiotic use may benefit from addressing the ... ...

    Abstract In a retrospective, ecological analysis of US medical claims, visit rates explained more of the geographic variation in outpatient antibiotic prescribing rates than per-visit prescribing. Efforts to reduce antibiotic use may benefit from addressing the factors that drive higher rates of outpatient visits, in addition to continued focus on stewardship.
    Language English
    Publishing date 2024-03-21
    Publishing country United States
    Document type Journal Article
    ZDB-ID 1099781-7
    ISSN 1537-6591 ; 1058-4838
    ISSN (online) 1537-6591
    ISSN 1058-4838
    DOI 10.1093/cid/ciae111
    Database MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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    In stock of ZB MED Cologne/Königswinter

    Zs.A 1505: Show issues Location:
    Je nach Verfügbarkeit (siehe Angabe bei Bestand)
    bis Jg. 1994: Bestellungen von Artikeln über das Online-Bestellformular
    Jg. 1995 - 2021: Lesesall (1.OG)
    ab Jg. 2022: Lesesaal (EG)
    Zs.MO 480: Show issues

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  6. Article ; Online: Reduction in Antibiotic Prescribing Attainable With a Gonococcal Vaccine.

    Kissler, Stephen M / Mitchell, Moriah / Grad, Yonatan H

    Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America

    2021  Volume 73, Issue 6, Page(s) e1368–e1371

    Abstract: We estimated the fraction of antibiotic prescribing in the United States attributable to gonorrhea. Gonorrhea contributes to an outsized proportion of antibiotic prescriptions in young adults, males, and in the southern and western United States. A ... ...

    Abstract We estimated the fraction of antibiotic prescribing in the United States attributable to gonorrhea. Gonorrhea contributes to an outsized proportion of antibiotic prescriptions in young adults, males, and in the southern and western United States. A gonococcal vaccine could substantially reduce antibiotic prescribing in these populations.
    MeSH term(s) Anti-Bacterial Agents/therapeutic use ; Bacterial Vaccines ; Gonorrhea/drug therapy ; Gonorrhea/prevention & control ; Humans ; Male ; United States ; Young Adult
    Chemical Substances Anti-Bacterial Agents ; Bacterial Vaccines
    Language English
    Publishing date 2021-03-27
    Publishing country United States
    Document type Journal Article ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
    ZDB-ID 1099781-7
    ISSN 1537-6591 ; 1058-4838
    ISSN (online) 1537-6591
    ISSN 1058-4838
    DOI 10.1093/cid/ciab276
    Database MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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    In stock of ZB MED Cologne/Königswinter

    Zs.A 1505: Show issues Location:
    Je nach Verfügbarkeit (siehe Angabe bei Bestand)
    bis Jg. 1994: Bestellungen von Artikeln über das Online-Bestellformular
    Jg. 1995 - 2021: Lesesall (1.OG)
    ab Jg. 2022: Lesesaal (EG)
    Zs.MO 480: Show issues

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  7. Article: Infectious disease dynamics and restrictions on social gathering size.

    Boyer, Christopher B / Rumpler, Eva / Kissler, Stephen M / Lipsitch, Marc

    medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences

    2022  

    Abstract: Social gatherings can be an important locus of transmission for many pathogens including SARS-CoV-2. During an outbreak, restricting the size of these gatherings is one of several non-pharmaceutical interventions available to policy-makers to reduce ... ...

    Abstract Social gatherings can be an important locus of transmission for many pathogens including SARS-CoV-2. During an outbreak, restricting the size of these gatherings is one of several non-pharmaceutical interventions available to policy-makers to reduce transmission. Often these restrictions take the form of prohibitions on gatherings above a certain size. While it is generally agreed that such restrictions reduce contacts, the specific size threshold separating "allowed" from "prohibited" gatherings often does not have a clear scientific basis, which leads to dramatic differences in guidance across location and time. Building on the observation that gathering size distributions are often heavy-tailed, we develop a theoretical model of transmission during gatherings and their contribution to general disease dynamics. We find that a key, but often overlooked, determinant of the optimal threshold is the distribution of gathering sizes. Using data on pre-pandemic contact patterns from several sources as well as empirical estimates of transmission parameters for SARS-CoV-2, we apply our model to better understand the relationship between restriction threshold and reduction in cases. We find that, under reasonable transmission parameter ranges, restrictions may have to be set quite low to have any demonstrable effect on cases due to relative frequency of smaller gatherings. We compare our conceptual model with observed changes in reported contacts during lockdown in March of 2020.
    Language English
    Publishing date 2022-07-12
    Publishing country United States
    Document type Preprint
    DOI 10.1101/2022.01.07.21268585
    Database MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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  8. Article ; Online: Infectious disease dynamics and restrictions on social gathering size.

    Boyer, Christopher B / Rumpler, Eva / Kissler, Stephen M / Lipsitch, Marc

    Epidemics

    2022  Volume 40, Page(s) 100620

    Abstract: Social gatherings can be an important locus of transmission for many pathogens including SARS-CoV-2. During an outbreak, restricting the size of these gatherings is one of several non-pharmaceutical interventions available to policy-makers to reduce ... ...

    Abstract Social gatherings can be an important locus of transmission for many pathogens including SARS-CoV-2. During an outbreak, restricting the size of these gatherings is one of several non-pharmaceutical interventions available to policy-makers to reduce transmission. Often these restrictions take the form of prohibitions on gatherings above a certain size. While it is generally agreed that such restrictions reduce contacts, the specific size threshold separating "allowed" from "prohibited" gatherings often does not have a clear scientific basis, which leads to dramatic differences in guidance across location and time. Building on the observation that gathering size distributions are often heavy-tailed, we develop a theoretical model of transmission during gatherings and their contribution to general disease dynamics. We find that a key, but often overlooked, determinant of the optimal threshold is the distribution of gathering sizes. Using data on pre-pandemic contact patterns from several sources as well as empirical estimates of transmission parameters for SARS-CoV-2, we apply our model to better understand the relationship between restriction threshold and reduction in cases. We find that, under reasonable transmission parameter ranges, restrictions may have to be set quite low to have any demonstrable effect on cases due to relative frequency of smaller gatherings. We compare our conceptual model with observed changes in reported contacts during lockdown in March of 2020.
    MeSH term(s) COVID-19/epidemiology ; Communicable Disease Control ; Communicable Diseases/epidemiology ; Humans ; Pandemics/prevention & control ; SARS-CoV-2
    Language English
    Publishing date 2022-08-17
    Publishing country Netherlands
    Document type Journal Article ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't ; Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural
    ZDB-ID 2467993-8
    ISSN 1878-0067 ; 1755-4365
    ISSN (online) 1878-0067
    ISSN 1755-4365
    DOI 10.1016/j.epidem.2022.100620
    Database MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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  9. Article: Spatiotemporal Trends in Group A Streptococcal Pharyngitis in the United States.

    Kline, Madeleine C / Kissler, Stephen M / Whittles, Lilith K / Barnett, Michael L / Grad, Yonatan H

    medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences

    2023  

    Abstract: Background: Group A : Methods: We used outpatient claims data from individuals with private medical insurance between 2010-2018 to quantify GAS pharyngitis visit rates across U.S. census regions, subregions, and states. We evaluated seasonal and age- ... ...

    Abstract Background: Group A
    Methods: We used outpatient claims data from individuals with private medical insurance between 2010-2018 to quantify GAS pharyngitis visit rates across U.S. census regions, subregions, and states. We evaluated seasonal and age-based patterns of geographic spread and the association between school start dates and the summertime upward inflection in GAS visits.
    Results: The South had the most visits per person (yearly average 39.11 visits per 1000 people, 95% CI: 36.21-42.01), and the West had the fewest (yearly average 17.63 visits per 1000 people, 95% CI: 16.76-18.49). Visits increased earliest in the South and in school-age children. Differences in visits between the South and other regions were most pronounced in the late summer through early winter. Visits peaked earliest in central southern states, in December to January, and latest on the coasts, in March. The onset of the rise in GAS pharyngitis visits correlated with, but preceded, average school start times.
    Conclusions: The burden and timing of GAS pharyngitis varied across the continental U.S., with the South experiencing the highest overall rates and earliest onset and peak in outpatient visits. Understanding the drivers of these regional differences in GAS pharyngitis will help in identifying and targeting prevention measures.
    Language English
    Publishing date 2023-11-16
    Publishing country United States
    Document type Preprint
    DOI 10.1101/2023.11.16.23298647
    Database MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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  10. Article ; Online: The anticipated artificial increase in life expectancy from COVID-19

    Kissler, Stephen M / Grad, Yonatan

    medRxiv

    Abstract: In 2020, life expectancy in the United States decreased by an estimated 1.5 years. Due to mortality displacement during the COVID-19 pandemic, life expectancy could soon rebound to above its pre-pandemic baseline. We estimated the size and duration of ... ...

    Abstract In 2020, life expectancy in the United States decreased by an estimated 1.5 years. Due to mortality displacement during the COVID-19 pandemic, life expectancy could soon rebound to above its pre-pandemic baseline. We estimated the size and duration of this artificial rise in life expectancy through 2030. We found that this rebound could persist for years and will likely be most pronounced in minority populations who suffered the highest rates of mortality during the pandemic. Accounting for this artificial rebound will be critical to avoid funneling resources away from populations that still urgently need them.
    Keywords covid19
    Language English
    Publishing date 2021-09-11
    Publisher Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press
    Document type Article ; Online
    DOI 10.1101/2021.09.09.21263351
    Database COVID19

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