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Article ; Online: Mpox emergence in Japan: ongoing risk of establishment in Asia.

Endo, Akira / Jung, Sung-Mok / Miura, Fuminari

2023 Volume 401, Issue 10392, Page(s) 1923–1924

MeSH term(s)	Humans ; Japan/epidemiology ; Mpox (monkeypox) ; Asia/epidemiology ; Longitudinal Studies
Language	English
Publishing date	2023-05-31
Publishing country	England
Document type	Letter
ZDB-ID	3306-6
ISSN	1474-547X ; 0023-7507 ; 0140-6736
ISSN (online)	1474-547X
ISSN	0023-7507 ; 0140-6736
DOI	10.1016/S0140-6736(23)00766-3
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Article ; Online: The Possible Impact of Nationwide Vaccination on Outcomes of the COVID-19 Epidemic in North Korea: A Modelling Study.

Jung, Sung-Mok / Jung, Jaehun

Journal of Korean medical science

2022 Volume 37, Issue 41, Page(s) e300

Abstract: Background: The Democratic People's Republic of Korea (North Korea) had successfully suppressed the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemic via border closures. However, a rapid surge in incidence was reported due to the spread of the omicron ... ...

Abstract	Background: The Democratic People's Republic of Korea (North Korea) had successfully suppressed the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemic via border closures. However, a rapid surge in incidence was reported due to the spread of the omicron variant (B.1.1.529), leading to a national emergency declaration in May 2022. Moreover, with the lack of vaccine accessibility and medical facilities, it is unclear how the disease burden may be exacerbated. Despite the limited epidemiological data, we aimed to project the COVID-19 transmissions in North Korea and quantify the potential impact of nationwide vaccination, comparing epidemiological outcomes via scenario analysis. Methods: A discrete-time deterministic compartmental model was used. The parameters were calibrated using empirical data. Numerical simulations incorporated nationwide COVID-19 vaccination into the proposed model with various asymptomatic proportions. Results: Our model suggested that the stringent public health and social measures (PHSMs) reduced the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 transmissibility by more than 80% in North Korea. Projections that explicitly incorporated vaccination indicated that nationwide vaccination would be necessary to suppress a huge resurgence in both COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations after the stringent PHSMs are eased. Moreover, vaccinating more than 80% of the population with two doses may keep the peak prevalence of hospitalizations below 1,500, averting more than 40,000 hospitalizations across all scenarios. Conclusion: Nationwide vaccination would be essential to suppress the prevalence of COVID-19 hospitalizations in North Korea after the stringent PHSMs are lifted, especially in the case of a small asymptomatic proportion.
MeSH term(s)	Humans ; COVID-19/epidemiology ; COVID-19/prevention & control ; SARS-CoV-2 ; Democratic People's Republic of Korea/epidemiology ; COVID-19 Vaccines ; Vaccination
Chemical Substances	COVID-19 Vaccines
Language	English
Publishing date	2022-10-24
Publishing country	Korea (South)
Document type	Journal Article
ZDB-ID	639262-3
ISSN	1598-6357 ; 1011-8934
ISSN (online)	1598-6357
ISSN	1011-8934
DOI	10.3346/jkms.2022.37.e300
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Article ; Online: Decrease in overdispersed secondary transmission of COVID-19 over time in Japan.

Miyama, Takeshi / Jung, Sung-Mok / Nishiura, Hiroshi

Epidemiology and infection

2022 Volume 150, Page(s) e197

Abstract: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has been described as having an overdispersed offspring distribution, i.e. high variation in the number of secondary transmissions of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) per single primary ... ...

Abstract	Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has been described as having an overdispersed offspring distribution, i.e. high variation in the number of secondary transmissions of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) per single primary COVID-19 case. Accordingly, countermeasures focused on high-risk settings and contact tracing could efficiently reduce secondary transmissions. However, as variants of concern with elevated transmissibility continue to emerge, controlling COVID-19 with such focused approaches has become difficult. It is vital to quantify temporal variations in the offspring distribution dispersibility. Here, we investigated offspring distributions for periods when the ancestral variant was still dominant (summer, 2020; wave 2) and when Alpha variant (B.1.1.7) was prevailing (spring, 2021; wave 4). The dispersion parameter (
MeSH term(s)	Humans ; SARS-CoV-2 ; COVID-19/epidemiology ; Japan/epidemiology ; Contact Tracing
Language	English
Publishing date	2022-11-15
Publishing country	England
Document type	Journal Article
ZDB-ID	632982-2
ISSN	1469-4409 ; 0950-2688
ISSN (online)	1469-4409
ISSN	0950-2688
DOI	10.1017/S0950268822001789
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Article ; Online: Go To Travel campaign and the geographic spread of COVID-19 in Japan.

Anzai, Asami / Jung, Sung-Mok / Nishiura, Hiroshi

BMC infectious diseases

2022 Volume 22, Issue 1, Page(s) 808

Abstract: Background: In 2020, the Japanese government implemented first of two Go To Travel campaigns to promote the tourism sector as well as eating and drinking establishments, especially in remote areas. The present study aimed to explore the relationship ... ...

Abstract	Background: In 2020, the Japanese government implemented first of two Go To Travel campaigns to promote the tourism sector as well as eating and drinking establishments, especially in remote areas. The present study aimed to explore the relationship between enhanced travel and geographic propagation of COVID-19 across Japan, focusing on the second campaign with nationwide large-scale economic boost in 2020. Methods: We carried out an interrupted time-series analysis to identify the possible cause-outcome relationship between the Go To Travel campaign and the spread of infection to nonurban areas in Japan. Specifically, we counted the number of prefectures that experienced a weekly incidence of three, five, and seven COVID-19 cases or more per 100,000 population, and we compared the rate of change before and after the campaign. Results: Three threshold values and three different models identified an increasing number of prefectures above the threshold, indicating that the inter-prefectural spread intensified following the launch of the second Go To Travel campaign from October 1st, 2020. The simplest model that accounted for an increase in the rate of change only provided the best fit. We estimated that 0.24 (95% confidence interval 0.15 to 0.34) additional prefectures newly exceeded five COVID-19 cases per 100,000 population per week during the second campaign. Conclusions: The enhanced movement resulting from the Go To Travel campaign facilitated spatial spread of COVID-19 from urban to nonurban locations, where health-care capacity may have been limited.
MeSH term(s)	Humans ; COVID-19/epidemiology ; Japan/epidemiology ; Travel ; Hospital Bed Capacity ; Incidence
Language	English
Publishing date	2022-10-31
Publishing country	England
Document type	Journal Article
ZDB-ID	2041550-3
ISSN	1471-2334 ; 1471-2334
ISSN (online)	1471-2334
ISSN	1471-2334
DOI	10.1186/s12879-022-07799-0
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Article ; Online: High population burden of Omicron variant (B.1.1.529) is associated with the emergence of severe hepatitis of unknown etiology in children.

Nishiura, Hiroshi / Jung, Sung-Mok / Hayashi, Katsuma

International journal of infectious diseases : IJID : official publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases

2022 Volume 122, Page(s) 30–32

Abstract: Objectives: To explore a potential country-based ecological link between severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Omicron variant (B.1.1.529) infection and an apparent current global outbreak of severe hepatitis of unknown etiology ... ...

Abstract	Objectives: To explore a potential country-based ecological link between severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Omicron variant (B.1.1.529) infection and an apparent current global outbreak of severe hepatitis of unknown etiology among children. Methods: We examined country-level statistical associations between reported detection of one or more unexplained severe hepatitis cases in children and the cumulative number of Omicron (B.1.1.529) cases in 38 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) member countries plus Romania. Results: At least one focal hepatitis case was detected in 12 of the 39 countries included in our analysis. Numbers of confirmed Omicron cases reported in these 12 countries ranged from 4.4 to 11.9 million. Among the remaining 27 countries, this measure ranged from 0.5 to 5.5 million cases. Countries which reported focal hepatitis cases experienced higher precedent population burdens of Omicron cases relative to those which did not report any such hepatitis cases (p=0.013). Conclusion: Prior exposure to Omicron variant (B.1.1.529) may be associated with an increased risk for severe hepatitis among children, indicating a critical need to conduct cofactor studies.
MeSH term(s)	COVID-19/epidemiology ; Child ; Disease Outbreaks ; Hepatitis/epidemiology ; Humans ; SARS-CoV-2
Language	English
Publishing date	2022-05-13
Publishing country	Canada
Document type	Journal Article
ZDB-ID	1331197-9
ISSN	1878-3511 ; 1201-9712
ISSN (online)	1878-3511
ISSN	1201-9712
DOI	10.1016/j.ijid.2022.05.028
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Article: Effects of Mono- and Bifunctional Surface Ligands of Cu-In-Se Quantum Dots on Photoelectrochemical Hydrogen Production.

Park, Soo Ik / Jung, Sung-Mok / Kim, Jae-Yup / Yang, Jiwoong

Materials (Basel, Switzerland)

2022 Volume 15, Issue 17

Abstract: Semiconductor nanocrystal quantum dots (QDs) are promising materials for solar energy conversion because of their bandgap tunability, high absorption coefficient, and improved hot-carrier generation. ... ...

Abstract	Semiconductor nanocrystal quantum dots (QDs) are promising materials for solar energy conversion because of their bandgap tunability, high absorption coefficient, and improved hot-carrier generation. CuInSe
Language	English
Publishing date	2022-08-31
Publishing country	Switzerland
Document type	Journal Article
ZDB-ID	2487261-1
ISSN	1996-1944
ISSN	1996-1944
DOI	10.3390/ma15176010
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Article ; Online: Model-informed COVID-19 exit strategy with projections of SARS-CoV-2 infections generated by variants in the Republic of Korea.

Jung, Sung-Mok / Huh, Kyungmin / Radnaabaatar, Munkhzul / Jung, Jaehun

BMC public health

2022 Volume 22, Issue 1, Page(s) 2098

Abstract: Background: With the prompt administration of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccines, highly vaccinated countries have begun to lift their stringent control measures. However, considering the spread of highly transmissible new variants, resuming ... ...

Abstract	Background: With the prompt administration of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccines, highly vaccinated countries have begun to lift their stringent control measures. However, considering the spread of highly transmissible new variants, resuming socio-economic activities may lead to the resurgence of incidence, particularly in nations with a low proportion of individuals who have natural immunity. Here, we aimed to quantitatively assess an optimal COVID-19 exit strategy in the Republic of Korea, where only a small number of cumulative incidences have been recorded as of September 2021, comparing epidemiological outcomes via scenario analysis. Methods: A discrete-time deterministic compartmental model structured by age group was used, accounting for the variant-specific transmission dynamics and the currently planned nationwide vaccination. All parameters were calibrated using comprehensive empirical data obtained from the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency. Results: Our projection suggests that tapering the level of social distancing countermeasures to the minimum level from November 2021 can efficiently suppress a resurgence of incidence given the currently planned nationwide vaccine roll-out. In addition, considering the spread of the Delta variant, our model suggested that gradual easing of countermeasures for more than 4 months can efficiently withstand the prevalence of severe COVID-19 cases until the end of 2022. Conclusions: Our model-based projections provide evidence-based guidance for an exit strategy that allows society to resume normal life while sustaining the suppression of the COVID-19 epidemic in countries where the spread of COVID-19 has been well controlled.
MeSH term(s)	Humans ; COVID-19/epidemiology ; COVID-19/prevention & control ; SARS-CoV-2 ; Vaccination ; Epidemics
Language	English
Publishing date	2022-11-17
Publishing country	England
Document type	Journal Article ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
ZDB-ID	2041338-5
ISSN	1471-2458 ; 1471-2458
ISSN (online)	1471-2458
ISSN	1471-2458
DOI	10.1186/s12889-022-14576-w
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Article ; Online: Reconstruction and analysis of the transmission network of African swine fever in People's Republic of China, August 2018-September 2019.

Akhmetzhanov, Andrei R / Jung, Sung-Mok / Lee, Hyojung / Linton, Natalie M / Yang, Yichi / Yuan, Baoyin / Nishiura, Hiroshi

Epidemiology and infection

2024 Volume 152, Page(s) e27

Abstract: Introduction of African swine fever (ASF) to China in mid-2018 and the subsequent transboundary spread across Asia devastated regional swine production, affecting live pig and pork product-related markets worldwide. To explore the spatiotemporal spread ... ...

Abstract	Introduction of African swine fever (ASF) to China in mid-2018 and the subsequent transboundary spread across Asia devastated regional swine production, affecting live pig and pork product-related markets worldwide. To explore the spatiotemporal spread of ASF in China, we reconstructed possible ASF transmission networks using nearest neighbour, exponential function, equal probability, and spatiotemporal case-distribution algorithms. From these networks, we estimated the reproduction numbers, serial intervals, and transmission distances of the outbreak. The mean serial interval between paired units was around 29 days for all algorithms, while the mean transmission distance ranged 332 -456 km. The reproduction numbers for each algorithm peaked during the first two weeks and steadily declined through the end of 2018 before hovering around the epidemic threshold value of 1 with sporadic increases during 2019. These results suggest that 1) swine husbandry practices and production systems that lend themselves to long-range transmission drove ASF spread; 2) outbreaks went undetected by the surveillance system. Efforts by China and other affected countries to control ASF within their jurisdictions may be aided by the reconstructed spatiotemporal model. Continued support for strict implementation of biosecurity standards and improvements to ASF surveillance is essential for halting transmission in China and spread across Asia.
MeSH term(s)	Swine ; Humans ; Animals ; African Swine Fever/epidemiology ; African Swine Fever/prevention & control ; African Swine Fever Virus ; Disease Outbreaks/veterinary ; Epidemics ; China/epidemiology ; Sus scrofa ; Swine Diseases/epidemiology
Language	English
Publishing date	2024-01-29
Publishing country	England
Document type	Journal Article
ZDB-ID	632982-2
ISSN	1469-4409 ; 0950-2688
ISSN (online)	1469-4409
ISSN	0950-2688
DOI	10.1017/S0950268824000086
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Article ; Online: Response to COVID-19 during the Tokyo Olympic Games: Did we properly assess the risk?

Jung, Sung-Mok / Hayashi, Katsuma / Kayano, Taishi / Nishiura, Hiroshi

Epidemics

2022 Volume 40, Page(s) 100618

Abstract: Background: The number of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases was expected to increase during the Tokyo Olympic Games because of the increased physical contact within and between the domestic population and international participants of the Games. ...

Abstract	Background: The number of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases was expected to increase during the Tokyo Olympic Games because of the increased physical contact within and between the domestic population and international participants of the Games. The rapid rise of the Delta variant (B.1.617) in Japan meant that hosting the Olympic Games without any restrictions was likely to lead to an increase in cases. We aimed to quantitatively assess possible COVID-19 response strategies for the Olympic Games, comparing the prevalence of severe cases and the cumulative number of COVID-19 deaths via scenario analysis. Methods: We used a discrete-time deterministic compartmental model structured by age group. Parameters were calibrated using the age-stratified COVID-19 incidence data in Osaka. Numerical simulations incorporated the planned Olympics Games and nationwide COVID-19 vaccination into the proposed model, alongside various subjects and types of countermeasures. Results: Our model-informed approach suggested that having spectators at the Tokyo Olympic Games could lead to a surge in both cases and hospitalization. Projections for the scenario that explicitly incorporated the spread of the Delta variant (i.e., time-dependent increase in the relative transmissibility) showed that imposing stringent social distancing measures (R Conclusions: Our modeling analyses guided an optimal choice of COVID-19 response during and after the Tokyo Olympic Games, allowing the epidemic to be brought under control despite such a large mass gathering.
MeSH term(s)	COVID-19/epidemiology ; COVID-19 Vaccines ; Humans ; SARS-CoV-2 ; Tokyo/epidemiology
Chemical Substances	COVID-19 Vaccines
Language	English
Publishing date	2022-07-27
Publishing country	Netherlands
Document type	Journal Article ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
ZDB-ID	2467993-8
ISSN	1878-0067 ; 1755-4365
ISSN (online)	1878-0067
ISSN	1755-4365
DOI	10.1016/j.epidem.2022.100618
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Article ; Online: Not all fun and games: Potential incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infections during the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games.

Linton, Natalie M / Jung, Sung-Mok / Nishiura, Hiroshi

Mathematical biosciences and engineering : MBE

2021 Volume 18, Issue 6, Page(s) 9685–9696

Abstract: The Tokyo 2020 Olympic and Paralympic Games represent the most diverse international mass gathering event held since the start of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Postponed to summer 2021, the rescheduled Games were set to be held amidst ...

Abstract	The Tokyo 2020 Olympic and Paralympic Games represent the most diverse international mass gathering event held since the start of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Postponed to summer 2021, the rescheduled Games were set to be held amidst what would become the highest-ever levels of COVID-19 transmission in the host city of Tokyo. At the same time, the Delta variant of concern was gaining traction as the dominant viral strain and Japan had yet to exceed fifteen percent of its population fully vaccinated against COVID-19. To quantify the potential number of secondary cases that might arise during the Olympic Games, we performed a scenario analysis using a multitype branching process model. We considered the different contributions to transmission of Games accredited individuals, the general Tokyo population, and domestic spectators. In doing so, we demonstrate how transmission might evolve in these different groups over time, cautioning against any loosening of infection prevention protocols and supporting the decision to ban all spectators. If prevention measures were well observed, we estimated that the number of new cases among Games accredited individuals would approach zero by the end of the Games. However, if transmission was not controlled our model indicated hundreds of Games accredited individuals would become infected and daily incidence in Tokyo would reach upwards of 4,000 cases. Had domestic spectators been allowed (at 50% venue capacity), we estimated that over 250 spectators might have arrived infected to Tokyo venues, potentially generating more than 300 additional secondary infections while in Tokyo/at the Games. We also found the number of cases with infection directly attributable to hypothetical exposure during the Games was highly sensitive to the local epidemic dynamics. Therefore, reducing and maintaining transmission levels below epidemic levels using public health measures would be necessary to prevent cross-group transmission.
MeSH term(s)	COVID-19 ; Humans ; Incidence ; SARS-CoV-2 ; Tokyo/epidemiology
Language	English
Publishing date	2021-12-09
Publishing country	United States
Document type	Journal Article ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
ZDB-ID	2265126-3
ISSN	1551-0018 ; 1551-0018
ISSN (online)	1551-0018
ISSN	1551-0018
DOI	10.3934/mbe.2021474
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