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  1. Article ; Online: Countrywide analysis of heat- and cold-related mortality trends in the Czech Republic: growing inequalities under recent climate warming.

    Janoš, Tomáš / Ballester, Joan / Čupr, Pavel / Achebak, Hicham

    International journal of epidemiology

    2023  Volume 53, Issue 1

    Abstract: Background: Only little is known about trends in temperature-mortality associations among the most vulnerable subgroups, especially in the areas of central and eastern Europe, which are considered major climatic hotspots in terms of heatwave exposure. ... ...

    Abstract Background: Only little is known about trends in temperature-mortality associations among the most vulnerable subgroups, especially in the areas of central and eastern Europe, which are considered major climatic hotspots in terms of heatwave exposure. Thus, we aimed to assess trends in temperature-related mortality in the Czech Republic by sex, age and cause of death, and to quantify the temporal evolution of possible inequalities.
    Methods: We collected daily time series of all-cause (1987-2019) and cause-specific (1994-2019) mortality by sex and age category, and population-weighted daily mean 2-metre temperatures for each region of the Czech Republic. We applied a quasi-Poisson regression model to estimate the trends in region-specific temperature-mortality associations, with distributed lag non-linear models and multivariate random-effects meta-analysis to derive average associations across the country. We then calculated mortality attributable to non-optimal temperatures and implemented the indicator of sex- and age-dependent inequalities.
    Results: We observed a similar risk of mortality due to cold temperatures for men and women. Conversely, for warm temperatures, a higher risk was observed for women. Results by age showed a clear pattern of increasing risk due to non-optimum temperatures with increasing age category. The relative risk (RR) related to cold was considerably attenuated in most of the studied subgroups during the study period, whereas an increase in the RR associated with heat was seen in the overall population, in women, in the age category 90+ years and with respect to respiratory causes. Moreover, underlying sex- and age-dependent inequalities experienced substantial growth.
    Conclusions: Our findings suggest ongoing adaptation to cold temperatures. Mal/adaptation to hot temperatures occurred unequally among population subgroups and resulted in growing inequalities between the sexes and among age categories.
    MeSH term(s) Male ; Humans ; Female ; Aged, 80 and over ; Cold Temperature ; Hot Temperature ; Czech Republic/epidemiology ; Temperature ; Risk Factors ; Mortality
    Language English
    Publishing date 2023-10-19
    Publishing country England
    Document type Meta-Analysis ; Journal Article
    ZDB-ID 187909-1
    ISSN 1464-3685 ; 0300-5771
    ISSN (online) 1464-3685
    ISSN 0300-5771
    DOI 10.1093/ije/dyad141
    Database MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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  2. Article ; Online: Evolution of temperature-attributable mortality trends looking at social inequalities: An observational case study of urban maladaptation to cold and heat.

    Ellena, Marta / Ballester, Joan / Costa, Giuseppe / Achebak, Hicham

    Environmental research

    2022  Volume 214, Issue Pt 3, Page(s) 114082

    Abstract: Background: To date, little is known about the temporal variation of the temperature-mortality association among different demographic and socio-economic groups. The aim of this work is to investigate trends in cold- and heat- attributable mortality ... ...

    Abstract Background: To date, little is known about the temporal variation of the temperature-mortality association among different demographic and socio-economic groups. The aim of this work is to investigate trends in cold- and heat- attributable mortality risk and burden by sex, age, education, marital status, and number of household occupants in the city of Turin, Italy.
    Methods: We collected daily time-series of temperature and mortality counts by demographic and socio-economic groups for the period 1982-2018 in Turin. We applied standard quasi-Poisson regression models to data subsets of 25-year moving subperiods, and we estimated the temperature-mortality associations with distributed lag non-linear models (DLNM). We provided cross-linkages between the evolution of minimum mortality temperatures, relative risks of mortality and temperature-attributable deaths under cold and hot conditions.
    Results: Our findings highlighted an overall increase in risk trends under cold and heat conditions. All-cause mortality at the 1st percentile increased from 1.15 (95% CI: 1.04; 1.28) in 1982-2006 to 1.24 (95% CI: 1.11; 1.38) in 1994-2018, while at the 99th percentile the risk shifted from 1.51 (95% CI: 1.41; 1.61) to 1.59 (95% CI: 1.49; 1.71). In relation to social differences, women were characterized by greater values in respect to men, and similar estimates were observed among the elderly in respect to the youngest subgroup. Risk trends by educational subgroups were mixed, according to the reference temperature condition. Finally, individuals living in conditions of isolation were characterized by higher risks, with an increasing vulnerability throughout time.
    Conclusions: The overall increase in cold- and heat- related mortality risk suggests a maladaptation to ambient temperatures in Turin. Despite alert systems in place increase public awareness and improve the efficiency of existing health services at the local level, they do not necessarily prevent risks in a homogeneous way. Targeted public health responses to cold and heat in Turin are urgently needed to adapt to extreme temperatures due to climate change.
    MeSH term(s) Aged ; Cold Temperature ; Female ; Hot Temperature ; Humans ; Male ; Mortality ; Risk Factors ; Socioeconomic Factors ; Temperature
    Language English
    Publishing date 2022-08-11
    Publishing country Netherlands
    Document type Journal Article ; Observational Study ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
    ZDB-ID 205699-9
    ISSN 1096-0953 ; 0013-9351
    ISSN (online) 1096-0953
    ISSN 0013-9351
    DOI 10.1016/j.envres.2022.114082
    Database MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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  3. Article ; Online: Correction: Heat-related mortality trends under recent climate warming in Spain: A 36-year observational study.

    Achebak, Hicham / Devolder, Daniel / Ballester, Joan

    PLoS medicine

    2021  Volume 18, Issue 4, Page(s) e1003627

    Abstract: This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1002617.]. ...

    Abstract [This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1002617.].
    Language English
    Publishing date 2021-04-30
    Publishing country United States
    Document type Published Erratum
    ZDB-ID 2185925-5
    ISSN 1549-1676 ; 1549-1277
    ISSN (online) 1549-1676
    ISSN 1549-1277
    DOI 10.1371/journal.pmed.1003627
    Database MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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  4. Article ; Online: Population exposure to multiple air pollutants and its compound episodes in Europe.

    Chen, Zhao-Yue / Petetin, Hervé / Méndez Turrubiates, Raúl Fernando / Achebak, Hicham / Pérez García-Pando, Carlos / Ballester, Joan

    Nature communications

    2024  Volume 15, Issue 1, Page(s) 2094

    Abstract: Air pollution remains as a substantial health problem, particularly regarding the combined health risks arising from simultaneous exposure to multiple air pollutants. However, understanding these combined exposure events over long periods has been ... ...

    Abstract Air pollution remains as a substantial health problem, particularly regarding the combined health risks arising from simultaneous exposure to multiple air pollutants. However, understanding these combined exposure events over long periods has been hindered by sparse and temporally inconsistent monitoring data. Here we analyze daily ambient PM
    MeSH term(s) Humans ; Air Pollutants/analysis ; Nitrogen Dioxide/analysis ; Air Pollution/analysis ; Europe ; Particulate Matter/analysis ; Environmental Exposure/adverse effects ; Environmental Exposure/analysis
    Chemical Substances Air Pollutants ; Nitrogen Dioxide (S7G510RUBH) ; Particulate Matter
    Language English
    Publishing date 2024-03-13
    Publishing country England
    Document type Journal Article
    ZDB-ID 2553671-0
    ISSN 2041-1723 ; 2041-1723
    ISSN (online) 2041-1723
    ISSN 2041-1723
    DOI 10.1038/s41467-024-46103-3
    Database MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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  5. Article ; Online: Remeasuring the influence of ageing on heat-related mortality in Spain, 1980 to 2018.

    Lloyd, Simon J / Striessnig, Erich / Achebak, Hicham / Hajat, Shakoor / Muttarak, Raya / Quijal-Zamorano, Marcos / Rizzi, Silvia / Vielma, Constanza / Ballester, Joan

    Environmental research

    2024  Volume 248, Page(s) 118408

    Abstract: Climate change and population ageing are converging challenges that are expected to significantly worsen the health impacts of high temperatures. We aimed to remeasure the implications of ageing for heat-related mortality by comparing time trends based ... ...

    Abstract Climate change and population ageing are converging challenges that are expected to significantly worsen the health impacts of high temperatures. We aimed to remeasure the implications of ageing for heat-related mortality by comparing time trends based on chronological age (number of years already lived) with those derived from the application of state-of-the-art demographic methodology which better captures the dynamics of evolving longevity: prospective age (number of years still to be lived). We conducted a nationwide time-series analysis of 13 regions in Spain over 1980-2018 using all-cause mortality microdata for people aged 65+ and annual life tables from the Spanish National Institute of Statistics, and daily mean temperatures from E-OBS. Based on confounder-adjusted quasi-Poisson regression with distributed lag non-linear models and multivariate meta-analysis in moving 15-year timeslices, we assessed sex-specific changes in absolute risk and impacts for heat-related mortality at extreme and moderate temperatures, for chronological and prospective age groups. In the conventional chronological age analysis, absolute risk fell over the study period (e.g. females, extreme heat: -54%; moderate heat: -23%); after accounting for rising longevity, the prospective age analysis, however, found a smaller decline in risk for extreme heat (-15%) and a rise for moderate heat (+46%). Additionally, while the chronological age analysis suggested a shift in mortality towards higher ages, the prospective age analysis showed that over the study period, people of largely the same (prospective) age were impacted. Further, the prospective age analysis revealed excess risk in females (compared to males) rose from 20% to 27% for extreme heat, and from 40% to 70% for moderate heat. Assessing the implications of ageing using a prospective age perspective showed the urgency of re-doubling risk reduction efforts, including accelerating healthy ageing programs that incorporate climate considerations. The age patterns of impacts suggested that such actions have the potential to mitigate ageing-related heat-health threats to generate climate change-ready, healthy societies.
    MeSH term(s) Male ; Female ; Humans ; Hot Temperature ; Spain/epidemiology ; Prospective Studies ; Temperature ; Extreme Heat ; Mortality
    Language English
    Publishing date 2024-02-02
    Publishing country Netherlands
    Document type Meta-Analysis ; Journal Article
    ZDB-ID 205699-9
    ISSN 1096-0953 ; 0013-9351
    ISSN (online) 1096-0953
    ISSN 0013-9351
    DOI 10.1016/j.envres.2024.118408
    Database MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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  6. Article ; Online: Ambient temperature and risk of cardiovascular and respiratory adverse health outcomes: a nationwide cross-sectional study from Spain.

    Achebak, Hicham / Rey, Grégoire / Lloyd, Simon J / Quijal-Zamorano, Marcos / Méndez-Turrubiates, Raúl Fernando / Ballester, Joan

    European journal of preventive cardiology

    2024  

    Abstract: Aims: We assessed the association of temperature and temperature variability with cause-specific emergency hospitalizations and mortality from cardiovascular and respiratory diseases in Spain, as well as the effect modification of this association by ... ...

    Abstract Aims: We assessed the association of temperature and temperature variability with cause-specific emergency hospitalizations and mortality from cardiovascular and respiratory diseases in Spain, as well as the effect modification of this association by individual and contextual factors.
    Methods and results: We collected data on health (hospital admissions and mortality), weather (temperature and relative humidity), and relevant contextual indicators for 48 Spanish provinces during 2004-2019. The statistical analysis was separately performed for the summer (June-September) and winter (December-March) seasons. We first applied a generalized linear regression model with quasi-Poisson distribution to estimate daily province-specific temperature-health associations, and then we fitted multilevel multivariate meta-regression models to the evaluate effect modification of the contextual characteristics on heat- and cold-related risks. High temperature increased the risk of mortality across all cardiovascular and respiratory diseases, with the strongest effect for hypertension (relative risk (RR) at 99th temperature percentile vs. optimum temperature: 1.510 [95% empirical confidence interval {eCI} 1.251 to 1.821]), heart failure (1.528 [1.353 to 1.725]), and pneumonia (2.224 [1.685 to 2.936]). Heat also had an impact on all respiratory hospitalization causes (except asthma), with similar risks between pneumonia (1.288 [1.240 to 1.339]), acute bronchitis and bronchiolitis (1.307 [1.219 to 1.402]), and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (1.260 [1.158 to 1.372]). We generally found significant risks related to low temperature for all cardiovascular and respiratory causes, with heart failure (RR at 1st temperature percentile vs. optimum temperature: 1.537 [1.329 to 1.779]) and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (1.885 [1.646 to 2.159]) exhibiting the greatest risk for hospitalization, and acute myocardial infarction (1.860 [1.546 to 2.238]) and pneumonia (1.734 [1.219 to 2.468]) for mortality. Women and the elderly were more vulnerable to heat, while people with secondary education were less susceptible to cold compared to those not achieving this educational stage. Results from meta-regression showed that increasing heating access to the highest current provincial value (i.e. 95.6%) could reduce deaths due to cold by 59.5% (57.2 to 63.5).
    Conclusion: Exposure to low and high temperatures was associated with a greater risk of morbidity and mortality from multiple cardiovascular and respiratory conditions, and heating was the most effective societal adaptive measure to reduce cold-related mortality.
    Language English
    Publishing date 2024-02-13
    Publishing country England
    Document type Journal Article
    ZDB-ID 2626011-6
    ISSN 2047-4881 ; 2047-4873
    ISSN (online) 2047-4881
    ISSN 2047-4873
    DOI 10.1093/eurjpc/zwae021
    Database MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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  7. Article: Evolution of temperature-attributable mortality trends looking at social inequalities: An observational case study of urban maladaptation to cold and heat

    Ellena, Marta / Ballester, Joan / Costa, Giuseppe / Achebak, Hicham

    Environmental research. 2022 Nov., v. 214

    2022  

    Abstract: To date, little is known about the temporal variation of the temperature-mortality association among different demographic and socio-economic groups. The aim of this work is to investigate trends in cold- and heat- attributable mortality risk and burden ... ...

    Abstract To date, little is known about the temporal variation of the temperature-mortality association among different demographic and socio-economic groups. The aim of this work is to investigate trends in cold- and heat- attributable mortality risk and burden by sex, age, education, marital status, and number of household occupants in the city of Turin, Italy. We collected daily time-series of temperature and mortality counts by demographic and socio-economic groups for the period 1982–2018 in Turin. We applied standard quasi-Poisson regression models to data subsets of 25-year moving subperiods, and we estimated the temperature-mortality associations with distributed lag non-linear models (DLNM). We provided cross-linkages between the evolution of minimum mortality temperatures, relative risks of mortality and temperature-attributable deaths under cold and hot conditions. Our findings highlighted an overall increase in risk trends under cold and heat conditions. All-cause mortality at the 1st percentile increased from 1.15 (95% CI: 1.04; 1.28) in 1982–2006 to 1.24 (95% CI: 1.11; 1.38) in 1994–2018, while at the 99th percentile the risk shifted from 1.51 (95% CI: 1.41; 1.61) to 1.59 (95% CI: 1.49; 1.71). In relation to social differences, women were characterized by greater values in respect to men, and similar estimates were observed among the elderly in respect to the youngest subgroup. Risk trends by educational subgroups were mixed, according to the reference temperature condition. Finally, individuals living in conditions of isolation were characterized by higher risks, with an increasing vulnerability throughout time. The overall increase in cold- and heat- related mortality risk suggests a maladaptation to ambient temperatures in Turin. Despite alert systems in place increase public awareness and improve the efficiency of existing health services at the local level, they do not necessarily prevent risks in a homogeneous way. Targeted public health responses to cold and heat in Turin are urgently needed to adapt to extreme temperatures due to climate change.
    Keywords case studies ; climate change ; cold ; education ; elderly ; evolution ; heat ; marital status ; mortality ; public health ; research ; socioeconomics ; temporal variation ; time series analysis ; Italy
    Language English
    Dates of publication 2022-11
    Publishing place Elsevier Inc.
    Document type Article
    ZDB-ID 205699-9
    ISSN 1096-0953 ; 0013-9351
    ISSN (online) 1096-0953
    ISSN 0013-9351
    DOI 10.1016/j.envres.2022.114082
    Database NAL-Catalogue (AGRICOLA)

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  8. Article ; Online: Reversal of the seasonality of temperature-attributable mortality from respiratory diseases in Spain.

    Achebak, Hicham / Devolder, Daniel / Ingole, Vijendra / Ballester, Joan

    Nature communications

    2020  Volume 11, Issue 1, Page(s) 2457

    Abstract: A growing number of epidemiological studies have recently assessed temporal variations in vulnerability and/or mortality attributable to hot and cold temperatures. However, the eventual changes in the seasonal distribution of temperature-attributable ... ...

    Abstract A growing number of epidemiological studies have recently assessed temporal variations in vulnerability and/or mortality attributable to hot and cold temperatures. However, the eventual changes in the seasonal distribution of temperature-attributable mortality remain unexplored. Here, we analyse countrywide daily time-series of temperature and mortality counts from respiratory diseases by sex, age group and province of residence during the period 1980-2016 in Spain. We show the complete reversal of the seasonality of temperature-attributable mortality, with a significant shift of the maximum monthly incidence from winter to summer, and the minimum monthly incidence from early and late summer to winter. The reversal in the seasonal distribution of the attributable deaths is not driven by the observed warming in both winter and summer temperatures, but rather by the very large decrease in the risk of death due to cold temperatures and the relatively much smaller reduction due to hot temperatures. We conclude that the projected decrease in the number of moderate and extreme cold days due to climate warming will not contribute to a further reduction of cold-attributable respiratory deaths.
    MeSH term(s) Adolescent ; Adult ; Aged ; Aged, 80 and over ; Child ; Child, Preschool ; Climate ; Climate Change ; Female ; Humans ; Incidence ; Infant ; Infant, Newborn ; Male ; Middle Aged ; Respiration Disorders/diagnosis ; Respiration Disorders/epidemiology ; Respiration Disorders/mortality ; Seasons ; Spain/epidemiology ; Survival Rate ; Temperature ; Young Adult
    Language English
    Publishing date 2020-05-20
    Publishing country England
    Document type Journal Article ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
    ZDB-ID 2553671-0
    ISSN 2041-1723 ; 2041-1723
    ISSN (online) 2041-1723
    ISSN 2041-1723
    DOI 10.1038/s41467-020-16273-x
    Database MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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  9. Article ; Online: The Direct and Indirect Influences of Interrelated Regional-Level Sociodemographic Factors on Heat-Attributable Mortality in Europe: Insights for Adaptation Strategies.

    Lloyd, Simon J / Quijal-Zamorano, Marcos / Achebak, Hicham / Hajat, Shakoor / Muttarak, Raya / Striessnig, Erich / Ballester, Joan

    Environmental health perspectives

    2023  Volume 131, Issue 8, Page(s) 87013

    Abstract: Background: Heat is a significant cause of mortality, but impact patterns are heterogenous. Previous studies assessing such heterogeneity focused exclusively on risk rather than heat-attributable mortality burdens and assume predictors are independent.!# ...

    Abstract Background: Heat is a significant cause of mortality, but impact patterns are heterogenous. Previous studies assessing such heterogeneity focused exclusively on risk rather than heat-attributable mortality burdens and assume predictors are independent.
    Objectives: We assessed how four interrelated regional-level sociodemographic predictors-education, life expectancy, the ratio of older to younger people (aging index), and relative income-influence heterogeneity in heat-attributable mortality burdens in Europe and then derived insights into adaptation strategies.
    Methods: We extracted four outcomes from a temperature-mortality study covering 16 European countries: the rate of increase in mortality risk at moderate and extreme temperatures (moderate and extreme slope, respectively), the minimum mortality temperature percentile (MMTP), and the underlying mortality rate. We used structural equation modeling with country-level random effects to quantify the direct and indirect influences of the predictors on the outcomes.
    Results: Higher levels of education were directly associated with lower heat-related mortality at moderate and extreme temperatures via lower slopes and higher MMTPs. A one standard deviation increase in education was associated with a
    Discussion: Our novel approach provided insights into actions for reducing the health impacts of heat. First, the results show the interrelations between possible vulnerability-generating mechanisms and suggest future research directions. Second, the findings point to the need for a dual approach to adaptation, with actions that explicitly target heat exposure reduction and actions focused explicitly on the root causes of vulnerability. For the latter, the climate crisis may be leveraged to accelerate ongoing general public health programs. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP11766.
    MeSH term(s) Humans ; Hot Temperature ; Sociodemographic Factors ; Acclimatization ; Temperature ; Europe/epidemiology
    Language English
    Publishing date 2023-08-22
    Publishing country United States
    Document type Journal Article ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
    ZDB-ID 195189-0
    ISSN 1552-9924 ; 0091-6765 ; 1078-0475
    ISSN (online) 1552-9924
    ISSN 0091-6765 ; 1078-0475
    DOI 10.1289/EHP11766
    Database MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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  10. Article ; Online: Reversal of the seasonality of temperature-attributable mortality from respiratory diseases in Spain

    Hicham Achebak / Daniel Devolder / Vijendra Ingole / Joan Ballester

    Nature Communications, Vol 11, Iss 1, Pp 1-

    2020  Volume 9

    Abstract: Potential changes in the seasonality of temperature-attributable mortality due to climate warming have been poorly investigated. Here, the authors show that the projected decrease in the number of moderate and extreme cold days will not contribute to a ... ...

    Abstract Potential changes in the seasonality of temperature-attributable mortality due to climate warming have been poorly investigated. Here, the authors show that the projected decrease in the number of moderate and extreme cold days will not contribute to a further reduction of cold-attributable deaths.
    Keywords Science ; Q
    Language English
    Publishing date 2020-05-01T00:00:00Z
    Publisher Nature Portfolio
    Document type Article ; Online
    Database BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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