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Article ; Online: Estimation of Excess All-Cause Mortality Due to COVID-19 in Thailand.

Wilasang, Chaiwat / Modchang, Charin / Lincharoen, Thanchanok / Chadsuthi, Sudarat

Tropical medicine and infectious disease

2022 Volume 7, Issue 7

Abstract: Thailand has experienced the most prominent COVID-19 outbreak in 2021, resulting in a new record for COVID-19 cases and deaths. To assess the influence of the COVID-19 outbreak on mortality, we estimated excess all-cause and pneumonia mortality in ... ...

Abstract	Thailand has experienced the most prominent COVID-19 outbreak in 2021, resulting in a new record for COVID-19 cases and deaths. To assess the influence of the COVID-19 outbreak on mortality, we estimated excess all-cause and pneumonia mortality in Thailand during the COVID-19 outbreak from April to October 2021. We used mortality from the previous 5 years to estimate the baseline number of deaths using generalized linear mixed models. The models were adjusted for seasonality and demographics. We found that, during the outbreak in 2021, there was a significant rise in excess fatalities, especially in the older age groups. The estimated cumulative excess death was 14.3% (95% CI: 8.6-18.8%) higher than the baseline. The results also showed that the excess deaths in males were higher than in females by approximately 26.3%. The excess deaths directly caused by the COVID-19 infections accounted for approximately 75.0% of the all-cause excess deaths. Furthermore, excess pneumonia deaths were also found to be 26.2% (95% CI: 4.8-46.0%) above baseline.
Language	English
Publishing date	2022-06-24
Publishing country	Switzerland
Document type	Journal Article
ISSN	2414-6366
ISSN (online)	2414-6366
DOI	10.3390/tropicalmed7070116
Database	MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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Article ; Online: Estimation of Excess All-Cause Mortality Due to COVID-19 in Thailand

Chaiwat Wilasang / Charin Modchang / Thanchanok Lincharoen / Sudarat Chadsuthi

Tropical Medicine and Infectious Disease, Vol 7, Iss 7, p

2022 Volume 116

Abstract	Thailand has experienced the most prominent COVID-19 outbreak in 2021, resulting in a new record for COVID-19 cases and deaths. To assess the influence of the COVID-19 outbreak on mortality, we estimated excess all-cause and pneumonia mortality in Thailand during the COVID-19 outbreak from April to October 2021. We used mortality from the previous 5 years to estimate the baseline number of deaths using generalized linear mixed models. The models were adjusted for seasonality and demographics. We found that, during the outbreak in 2021, there was a significant rise in excess fatalities, especially in the older age groups. The estimated cumulative excess death was 14.3% (95% CI: 8.6–18.8%) higher than the baseline. The results also showed that the excess deaths in males were higher than in females by approximately 26.3%. The excess deaths directly caused by the COVID-19 infections accounted for approximately 75.0% of the all-cause excess deaths. Furthermore, excess pneumonia deaths were also found to be 26.2% (95% CI: 4.8–46.0%) above baseline.
Keywords	excess mortality ; pneumonia excess mortality ; COVID-19 ; Thailand ; Medicine ; R
Subject code	310
Language	English
Publishing date	2022-06-01T00:00:00Z
Publisher	MDPI AG
Document type	Article ; Online
Database	BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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Article ; Online: Reconstruction of the transmission dynamics of the first COVID-19 epidemic wave in Thailand.

Wilasang, Chaiwat / Jitsuk, Natcha C / Sararat, Chayanin / Modchang, Charin

Scientific reports

2022 Volume 12, Issue 1, Page(s) 2002

Abstract: Thailand was the first country reporting the first Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infected individual outside mainland China. Here we delineated the course of the COVID-19 outbreak together with the timeline of the control measures and public health ...

Abstract	Thailand was the first country reporting the first Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infected individual outside mainland China. Here we delineated the course of the COVID-19 outbreak together with the timeline of the control measures and public health policies employed by the Thai government during the first wave of the COVID-19 outbreak in Thailand. Based on the comprehensive epidemiological data, we reconstructed the dynamics of COVID-19 transmission in Thailand using a stochastic modeling approach. Our stochastic model incorporated the effects of individual heterogeneity in infectiousness on disease transmission, which allows us to capture relevant features of superspreading events. We found that our model could accurately capture the transmission dynamics of the first COVID-19 epidemic wave in Thailand. The model predicted that at the end of the first wave, the number of cumulative confirmed cases was 3091 (95%CI: 2782-3400). We also estimated the time-varying reproduction number (R
MeSH term(s)	Adult ; COVID-19/epidemiology ; COVID-19/prevention & control ; COVID-19/transmission ; COVID-19/virology ; Communicable Disease Control/methods ; Epidemics/prevention & control ; Female ; Humans ; Male ; Middle Aged ; Models, Statistical ; SARS-CoV-2 ; Stochastic Processes ; Thailand/epidemiology ; Young Adult
Language	English
Publishing date	2022-02-07
Publishing country	England
Document type	Journal Article ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
ZDB-ID	2615211-3
ISSN	2045-2322 ; 2045-2322
ISSN (online)	2045-2322
ISSN	2045-2322
DOI	10.1038/s41598-022-06008-x
Database	MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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Article ; Online: Competitive evolution of H1N1 and H3N2 influenza viruses in the United States: A mathematical modeling study.

Wilasang, Chaiwat / Suttirat, Pikkanet / Chadsuthi, Sudarat / Wiratsudakul, Anuwat / Modchang, Charin

Journal of theoretical biology

2022 Volume 555, Page(s) 111292

Abstract: Seasonal influenza causes vast public health and economic impact globally. The prevention and control of the annual epidemics remain a challenge due to the antigenic evolution of the viruses. Here, we presented a novel modeling framework based on changes ...

Abstract	Seasonal influenza causes vast public health and economic impact globally. The prevention and control of the annual epidemics remain a challenge due to the antigenic evolution of the viruses. Here, we presented a novel modeling framework based on changes in amino acid sequences and relevant epidemiological data to retrospectively investigate the competitive evolution and transmission of H1N1 and H3N2 influenza viruses in the United States during October 2002 and April 2019. To do so, we estimated the time-varying disease transmission rate from the reported influenza cases and the time-varying antigenic change rate of the viruses from the changes in amino acid sequences. By incorporating the time-varying antigenic change rate into the transmission models, we found that the models could capture the evolutionary transmission dynamics of influenza viruses in the United States. Our modeling results also showed that the antigenic change of the virus plays an essential role in seasonal influenza dynamics.
MeSH term(s)	United States/epidemiology ; Humans ; Influenza A Virus, H3N2 Subtype/genetics ; Influenza, Human ; Influenza A Virus, H1N1 Subtype/genetics ; Retrospective Studies ; Hemagglutinin Glycoproteins, Influenza Virus/genetics ; Phylogeny
Chemical Substances	Hemagglutinin Glycoproteins, Influenza Virus
Language	English
Publishing date	2022-09-27
Publishing country	England
Document type	Journal Article
ZDB-ID	2972-5
ISSN	1095-8541 ; 0022-5193
ISSN (online)	1095-8541
ISSN	0022-5193
DOI	10.1016/j.jtbi.2022.111292
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Article ; Online: Individual-based modeling reveals that the COVID-19 isolation period can be shortened by community vaccination.

Sararat, Chayanin / Wangkanai, Jidchanok / Wilasang, Chaiwat / Chantanasaro, Tanakorn / Modchang, Charin

Scientific reports

2022 Volume 12, Issue 1, Page(s) 17543

Abstract: The isolation of infected individuals and quarantine of their contacts are usually employed to mitigate the transmission of SARS-CoV-2. Although 14-day isolation of infected individuals could effectively reduce the risk of subsequent transmission, it ... ...

Abstract	The isolation of infected individuals and quarantine of their contacts are usually employed to mitigate the transmission of SARS-CoV-2. Although 14-day isolation of infected individuals could effectively reduce the risk of subsequent transmission, it also substantially impacts the patient's psychological and emotional well-being. It is, therefore, vital to investigate how the isolation duration could be shortened when effective vaccines are available. Here, an individual-based modeling approach was employed to estimate the likelihood of secondary infections and the likelihood of an outbreak following the isolation of a primary case for a range of isolation periods. Our individual-based model integrated the viral loads and infectiousness profiles of vaccinated and unvaccinated infected individuals. The effects of waning vaccine-induced immunity against infection were also considered. By simulating the transmission of the SARS-CoV-2 Delta (B.1.617.2) variant in a community, we found that in the baseline scenario in which all individuals were unvaccinated and nonpharmaceutical interventions were not used, there was an approximately 3% chance that an unvaccinated individual would lead to at least one secondary infection after being isolated for 14 days, and a sustained chain of transmission could occur with a less than 1% chance. With the outbreak risk equivalent to that of the 14-day isolation in the baseline scenario, we found that the isolation duration could be shortened to 7.33 days (95% CI 6.68-7.98) if 75% of people in the community were fully vaccinated with the BNT162b2 vaccine within the last three months. In the best-case scenario in which all individuals in the community are fully vaccinated, isolation of Delta variant-infected individuals may no longer be necessary. However, to keep the outbreak risk lower than 1%, a booster vaccination may be necessary three months after full vaccination.
MeSH term(s)	Humans ; COVID-19/epidemiology ; COVID-19/prevention & control ; SARS-CoV-2 ; BNT162 Vaccine ; Vaccination ; Coinfection
Chemical Substances	BNT162 Vaccine
Language	English
Publishing date	2022-10-20
Publishing country	England
Document type	Journal Article
ZDB-ID	2615211-3
ISSN	2045-2322 ; 2045-2322
ISSN (online)	2045-2322
ISSN	2045-2322
DOI	10.1038/s41598-022-21645-y
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Article ; Online: Southeast Asia is an emerging hotspot for COVID-19.

Chookajorn, Thanat / Kochakarn, Theerarat / Wilasang, Chaiwat / Kotanan, Namfon / Modchang, Charin

Nature medicine

2021 Volume 27, Issue 9, Page(s) 1495–1496

MeSH term(s)	Asia, Southeastern/epidemiology ; COVID-19/epidemiology ; COVID-19 Vaccines/therapeutic use ; Disease Hotspot ; Genome, Viral/genetics ; Humans ; Mass Vaccination/statistics & numerical data ; SARS-CoV-2/genetics ; Socioeconomic Factors ; Transients and Migrants
Chemical Substances	COVID-19 Vaccines
Language	English
Publishing date	2021-08-16
Publishing country	United States
Document type	Letter ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
ZDB-ID	1220066-9
ISSN	1546-170X ; 1078-8956
ISSN (online)	1546-170X
ISSN	1078-8956
DOI	10.1038/s41591-021-01471-x
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Article ; Online: Reconstruction of the transmission dynamics of the first COVID-19 epidemic wave in Thailand

Chaiwat Wilasang / Natcha C. Jitsuk / Chayanin Sararat / Charin Modchang

Scientific Reports, Vol 12, Iss 1, Pp 1-

2022 Volume 10

Abstract: Abstract Thailand was the first country reporting the first Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infected individual outside mainland China. Here we delineated the course of the COVID-19 outbreak together with the timeline of the control measures and ... ...

Abstract	Abstract Thailand was the first country reporting the first Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infected individual outside mainland China. Here we delineated the course of the COVID-19 outbreak together with the timeline of the control measures and public health policies employed by the Thai government during the first wave of the COVID-19 outbreak in Thailand. Based on the comprehensive epidemiological data, we reconstructed the dynamics of COVID-19 transmission in Thailand using a stochastic modeling approach. Our stochastic model incorporated the effects of individual heterogeneity in infectiousness on disease transmission, which allows us to capture relevant features of superspreading events. We found that our model could accurately capture the transmission dynamics of the first COVID-19 epidemic wave in Thailand. The model predicted that at the end of the first wave, the number of cumulative confirmed cases was 3091 (95%CI: 2782–3400). We also estimated the time-varying reproduction number (R t ) during the first epidemic wave. We found that after implementing the nationwide interventions, the R t in Thailand decreased from the peak value of 5.67 to a value below one in less than one month, indicating that the control measures employed by the Thai government during the first COVID-19 epidemic wave were effective. Finally, the effects of transmission heterogeneity and control measures on the likelihood of outbreak extinction were also investigated.
Keywords	Medicine ; R ; Science ; Q
Subject code	535
Language	English
Publishing date	2022-02-01T00:00:00Z
Publisher	Nature Portfolio
Document type	Article ; Online
Database	BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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Article ; Online: Estimation of excess all-cause mortality due to COVID-19 in Thailand

Wilasang, Chaiwat / Lincharoen, Thanchanok / Modchang, Charin / Chadsuthi, Sudarat

medRxiv

Abstract: Background: Thailand has recently experienced the most prominent COVID-19 outbreak, resulting in a new record for COVID-19 cases and deaths. To assess the influence of the COVID-19 outbreak on mortality, we aimed to estimate excess mortality in Thailand. ...

Abstract	Background: Thailand has recently experienced the most prominent COVID-19 outbreak, resulting in a new record for COVID-19 cases and deaths. To assess the influence of the COVID-19 outbreak on mortality, we aimed to estimate excess mortality in Thailand. Methods: We estimated the baseline number of deaths in the absence of COVID-19 using generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs). The models were adjusted for seasonality and demographics. We evaluated the excess mortality from April to October 2021 in Thailand. Results: We found that the estimated cumulative excess death from April to October 2021 was 14.3% (95% CI: 8.6%-18.8%) higher than the baseline. The results also showed that the excess deaths in males were higher than in females by approximately 26.3%. The excess deaths directly caused by the COVID-19 infections accounted for approximately 75.0% of the all-cause excess deaths. Furthermore, the cumulative COVID-19 cases were found to be correlated with the cumulative excess deaths with a correlation coefficient of 0.9912 (95% CI, 0.9392-0.9987). Conclusions: The recent COVID-19 outbreak in Thailand significantly impacts mortality and affects people for specific ages and sex. During the outbreak in 2021, there was a significant rise in excess fatalities, especially in the older age groups. The increase in mortality was higher in men than in women.
Keywords	covid19
Language	English
Publishing date	2022-01-07
Publisher	Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press
Document type	Article ; Online
DOI	10.1101/2022.01.07.22268886
Database	COVID19

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Article ; Online: Community vaccination can shorten the COVID-19 isolation period: an individual-based modeling approach

Sararat, Chayanin / Wangkanai, Jidchanok / Wilasang, Chaiwat / Chantanasaro, Tanakorn / Modchang, Charin

medRxiv

Abstract: Background: Isolation of infected individuals and quarantine of their contacts are usually employed to mitigate the transmission of SARS-CoV-2. While 14-day isolation of infected individuals could effectively reduce the risk of subsequence transmission, ... ...

Abstract	Background: Isolation of infected individuals and quarantine of their contacts are usually employed to mitigate the transmission of SARS-CoV-2. While 14-day isolation of infected individuals could effectively reduce the risk of subsequence transmission, it also significantly impacts the patient9s financial, psychological, and emotional well-being. It is, therefore, vital to investigate how the isolation duration could be shortened when effective vaccines are available and in what circumstances we can live with COVID-19 without isolation and quarantine. Methods: An individual-based modeling approach was employed to estimate the likelihood of secondary infections and the likelihood of an outbreak following the isolation of an index case for a range of isolation periods. Our individual-based model integrates the viral load and infectiousness profiles of vaccinated and unvaccinated infected individuals. The effects of waning vaccine-induced immunity against Delta and Omicron variant transmission were also investigated. Results: In the baseline scenario in which all individuals are unvaccinated, and no nonpharmaceutical interventions are employed, there is a chance of about 3% that an unvaccinated index case will make at least one secondary infection after being isolated for 14 days, and a sustained chain of transmission can occur with a chance of less than 1%. We found that at the outbreak risk equivalent to that of 14-day isolation in the baseline scenario, the isolation duration can be shortened to 7.33 days (95% CI 6.68-7.98) if 75% of people in the community are fully vaccinated during the last three months. In the best-case scenario in which all individuals in the community are fully vaccinated, isolation of infected individuals may no longer be necessary, at least during the first three months after being fully vaccinated, indicating that booster vaccination may be required after being fully vaccinated for three to four months. Finally, our simulations showed that the reduced vaccine effectiveness against Omicron variant transmission does not much affect the risk of an outbreak if the vaccine effectiveness against infection is maintained at a high level via booster vaccination. Conclusions: The isolation duration of a vaccine breakthrough infector could be safely shortened if a majority of people in the community are immune to SARS-CoV-2 infection. A booster vaccination may be necessary three months after full vaccination to keep the outbreak risk low.
Keywords	covid19
Language	English
Publishing date	2022-02-09
Publisher	Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press
Document type	Article ; Online
DOI	10.1101/2022.02.08.22270668
Database	COVID19

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Article ; Online: Modeling vaccination strategies with limited early COVID-19 vaccine access in low- and middle-income countries: A case study of Thailand.

Anupong, Suparinthon / Chantanasaro, Tanakorn / Wilasang, Chaiwat / Jitsuk, Natcha C / Sararat, Chayanin / Sornbundit, Kan / Pattanasiri, Busara / Wannigama, Dhammika Leshan / Amarasiri, Mohan / Chadsuthi, Sudarat / Modchang, Charin

Infectious Disease Modelling

2023 Volume 8, Issue 4, Page(s) 1177–1189

Abstract: Low- and middle-income countries faced significant challenges in accessing COVID-19 vaccines during the early stages of the pandemic. In this study, we utilized an age-structured modeling approach to examine the implications of various vaccination ... ...

Abstract	Low- and middle-income countries faced significant challenges in accessing COVID-19 vaccines during the early stages of the pandemic. In this study, we utilized an age-structured modeling approach to examine the implications of various vaccination strategies, vaccine prioritization, and vaccine rollout speeds in Thailand, an upper-middle-income country experiencing vaccine shortages during the early stages of the pandemic. The model directly compares the effectiveness of several vaccination strategies, including the heterologous vaccination where CoronaVac (CV) vaccine was administered as the first dose, followed by ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 (AZ) vaccine as the second dose, under varying disease transmission dynamics. We found that the traditional AZ homologous vaccination was more effective than the CV homologous vaccination, regardless of disease transmission dynamics. However, combining CV and AZ vaccines via either parallel homologous or heterologous vaccinations was more effective than relying solely on AZ homologous vaccination. Additionally, prioritizing vaccination for the elderly aged 60 years and above was the most effective way to reduce mortality when community transmission is well-controlled. On the other hand, prioritizing workers aged 20-59 was most effective in lowering COVID-19 cases, irrespective of the transmission dynamics. Lastly, despite the vaccine prioritization strategy, rapid vaccine rollout speeds were crucial in reducing COVID-19 infections and deaths. These findings suggested that in low- and middle-income countries where early access to high-efficacy vaccines might be limited, obtaining any accessible vaccines as early as possible and using them in parallel with other higher-efficacy vaccines might be a better strategy than waiting for and relying solely on higher-efficacy vaccines.
Language	English
Publishing date	2023-11-15
Publishing country	China
Document type	Journal Article
ZDB-ID	3015225-2
ISSN	2468-0427 ; 2468-2152
ISSN (online)	2468-0427
ISSN	2468-2152
DOI	10.1016/j.idm.2023.11.003
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