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  1. Book ; Conference proceedings: Dynamical systems in biomathematics

    Aguiar, Maíra

    (Ecological complexity ; volume 30 (June 2017))

    2017  

    Event/congress Workshop on Dynamical Systems Applied to Biology and Natural Sciences (7., 2016, Évora)
    Author's details guest editors: Maíra Aguiar, Carlos Braumann, Bob Kooi and Andrea Pugliese
    Series title Ecological complexity ; volume 30 (June 2017)
    Collection
    Language English
    Size 99 Seiten, Diagramme
    Publisher Elsevier
    Publishing place Amsterdam
    Publishing country Netherlands
    Document type Book ; Conference proceedings
    Note "On February 2-5,2016, a scientific annual workshop was held at the Escola de Ciências e Tecnologia of Évora University in Portugal, the "Seventh Workshop on Dynamical Systems Applied to Biology and Natural Sciences: DSANBS2016." - Editoral
    HBZ-ID HT019365954
    Database Catalogue ZB MED Nutrition, Environment, Agriculture

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    In stock of ZB MED Bonn / Germany

    Shelf markLoan statusLocation
    Z 7555 (30) available for loan (reading room) Freihandmagazin (U1)

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  2. Article ; Online: Dengue vaccination: a more ethical approach is needed.

    Aguiar, Maíra

    Lancet (London, England)

    2018  Volume 391, Issue 10132, Page(s) 1769–1770

    MeSH term(s) Dengue ; Dengue Vaccines ; Dengue Virus/immunology ; Humans ; Morals ; Vaccination
    Chemical Substances Dengue Vaccines
    Language English
    Publishing date 2018-03-26
    Publishing country England
    Document type Letter ; Comment
    ZDB-ID 3306-6
    ISSN 1474-547X ; 0023-7507 ; 0140-6736
    ISSN (online) 1474-547X
    ISSN 0023-7507 ; 0140-6736
    DOI 10.1016/S0140-6736(18)30865-1
    Database MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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    In stock of ZB MED Cologne/Königswinter

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    Zs.MG 94: Show issues

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  3. Article ; Online: Modeling spillover dynamics: understanding emerging pathogens of public health concern.

    Saldaña, Fernando / Stollenwerk, Nico / Van Dierdonck, Joseba Bidaurrazaga / Aguiar, Maíra

    Scientific reports

    2024  Volume 14, Issue 1, Page(s) 9823

    Abstract: The emergence of infectious diseases with pandemic potential is a major public health threat worldwide. The World Health Organization reports that about 60% of emerging infectious diseases are zoonoses, originating from spillover events. Although the ... ...

    Abstract The emergence of infectious diseases with pandemic potential is a major public health threat worldwide. The World Health Organization reports that about 60% of emerging infectious diseases are zoonoses, originating from spillover events. Although the mechanisms behind spillover events remain unclear, mathematical modeling offers a way to understand the intricate interactions among pathogens, wildlife, humans, and their shared environment. Aiming at gaining insights into the dynamics of spillover events and the outcome of an eventual disease outbreak in a population, we propose a continuous time stochastic modeling framework. This framework links the dynamics of animal reservoirs and human hosts to simulate cross-species disease transmission. We conduct a thorough analysis of the model followed by numerical experiments that explore various spillover scenarios. The results suggest that although most epidemic outbreaks caused by novel zoonotic pathogens do not persist in the human population, the rising number of spillover events can avoid long-lasting extinction and lead to unexpected large outbreaks. Hence, global efforts to reduce the impacts of emerging diseases should not only address post-emergence outbreak control but also need to prevent pandemics before they are established.
    MeSH term(s) Humans ; Communicable Diseases, Emerging/epidemiology ; Communicable Diseases, Emerging/transmission ; Animals ; Zoonoses/epidemiology ; Zoonoses/transmission ; Public Health ; Disease Outbreaks ; Models, Theoretical ; Disease Reservoirs ; Pandemics
    Language English
    Publishing date 2024-04-29
    Publishing country England
    Document type Journal Article ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
    ZDB-ID 2615211-3
    ISSN 2045-2322 ; 2045-2322
    ISSN (online) 2045-2322
    ISSN 2045-2322
    DOI 10.1038/s41598-024-60661-y
    Database MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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  4. Article ; Online: Data-driven estimation of the instantaneous reproduction number and growth rates for the 2022 monkeypox outbreak in Europe.

    Saldaña, Fernando / Daza-Torres, Maria L / Aguiar, Maíra

    PloS one

    2023  Volume 18, Issue 9, Page(s) e0290387

    Abstract: Objective: To estimate the instantaneous reproduction number Rt and the epidemic growth rates for the 2022 monkeypox outbreaks in the European region.: Methods: We gathered daily laboratory-confirmed monkeypox cases in the most affected European ... ...

    Abstract Objective: To estimate the instantaneous reproduction number Rt and the epidemic growth rates for the 2022 monkeypox outbreaks in the European region.
    Methods: We gathered daily laboratory-confirmed monkeypox cases in the most affected European countries from the beginning of the outbreak to September 23, 2022. A data-driven estimation of the instantaneous reproduction number is obtained using a novel filtering type Bayesian inference. A phenomenological growth model coupled with a Bayesian sequential approach to update forecasts over time is used to obtain time-dependent growth rates in several countries.
    Results: The instantaneous reproduction number Rt for the laboratory-confirmed monkeypox cases in Spain, France, Germany, the UK, the Netherlands, Portugal, and Italy. At the early phase of the outbreak, our estimation for Rt, which can be used as a proxy for the basic reproduction number R0, was 2.06 (95% CI 1.63 - 2.54) for Spain, 2.62 (95% CI 2.23 - 3.17) for France, 2.81 (95% CI 2.51 - 3.09) for Germany, 1.82 (95% CI 1.52 - 2.18) for the UK, 2.84 (95% CI 2.07 - 3.91) for the Netherlands, 1.13 (95% CI 0.99 - 1.32) for Portugal, 3.06 (95% CI 2.48 - 3.62) for Italy. Cumulative cases for these countries present subexponential rather than exponential growth dynamics.
    Conclusions: Our findings suggest that the current monkeypox outbreaks present limited transmission chains of human-to-human secondary infection so the possibility of a huge pandemic is very low. Confirmed monkeypox cases are decreasing significantly in the European region, the decline might be attributed to public health interventions and behavioral changes in the population due to increased risk perception. Nevertheless, further strategies toward elimination are essential to avoid the subsequent evolution of the monkeypox virus that can result in new outbreaks.
    MeSH term(s) Humans ; Mpox (monkeypox)/epidemiology ; Bayes Theorem ; Europe/epidemiology ; Disease Outbreaks ; France
    Language English
    Publishing date 2023-09-13
    Publishing country United States
    Document type Journal Article ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
    ZDB-ID 2267670-3
    ISSN 1932-6203 ; 1932-6203
    ISSN (online) 1932-6203
    ISSN 1932-6203
    DOI 10.1371/journal.pone.0290387
    Database MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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  5. Article ; Online: Within-host models unravelling the dynamics of dengue reinfections.

    Anam, Vizda / Guerrero, Bruno V / Srivastav, Akhil Kumar / Stollenwerk, Nico / Aguiar, Maíra

    Infectious Disease Modelling

    2024  Volume 9, Issue 2, Page(s) 458–473

    Abstract: Caused by four serotypes, dengue fever is a major public health concern worldwide. Current modeling efforts have mostly focused on primary and heterologous secondary infections, assuming that lifelong immunity prevents reinfections by the same serotype. ... ...

    Abstract Caused by four serotypes, dengue fever is a major public health concern worldwide. Current modeling efforts have mostly focused on primary and heterologous secondary infections, assuming that lifelong immunity prevents reinfections by the same serotype. However, recent findings challenge this assumption, prompting a reevaluation of dengue immunity dynamics. In this study, we develop a within-host modeling framework to explore different scenarios of dengue infections. Unlike previous studies, we go beyond a deterministic framework, considering individual immunological variability. Both deterministic and stochastic models are calibrated using empirical data on viral load and antibody (IgM and IgG) concentrations for all dengue serotypes, incorporating confidence intervals derived from stochastic realizations. With good agreement between the mean of the stochastic realizations and the mean field solution for each model, our approach not only successfully captures primary and heterologous secondary infection dynamics facilitated by antibody-dependent enhancement (ADE) but also provides, for the first time, insights into homotypic reinfection dynamics. Our study discusses the relevance of homotypic reinfections in dengue transmission at the population level, highlighting potential implications for disease prevention and control strategies.
    Language English
    Publishing date 2024-02-07
    Publishing country China
    Document type Journal Article
    ZDB-ID 3015225-2
    ISSN 2468-0427 ; 2468-2152
    ISSN (online) 2468-0427
    ISSN 2468-2152
    DOI 10.1016/j.idm.2024.02.004
    Database MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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  6. Article ; Online: Optimal vaccination strategies for a heterogeneous population using multiple objectives: The case of L

    Saldaña, Fernando / Kebir, Amira / Camacho-Gutiérrez, José Ariel / Aguiar, Maíra

    Mathematical biosciences

    2023  Volume 366, Page(s) 109103

    Abstract: The choice of the objective functional in optimization problems coming from biomedical and epidemiological applications plays a key role in optimal control outcomes. In this study, we investigate the role of the objective functional on the structure of ... ...

    Abstract The choice of the objective functional in optimization problems coming from biomedical and epidemiological applications plays a key role in optimal control outcomes. In this study, we investigate the role of the objective functional on the structure of the optimal control solution for an epidemic model for sexually transmitted infections that includes a core group with higher sexual activity levels than the rest of the population. An optimal control problem is formulated to find a targeted vaccination program able to control the spread of the infection with minimum vaccine deployment. Both L
    MeSH term(s) Vaccination ; Epidemics/prevention & control
    Language English
    Publishing date 2023-10-31
    Publishing country United States
    Document type Journal Article
    ZDB-ID 1126-5
    ISSN 1879-3134 ; 0025-5564
    ISSN (online) 1879-3134
    ISSN 0025-5564
    DOI 10.1016/j.mbs.2023.109103
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    In stock of ZB MED Cologne/Königswinter

    Zs.A 1534: Show issues Location:
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    bis Jg. 1994: Bestellungen von Artikeln über das Online-Bestellformular
    Jg. 1995 - 2021: Lesesall (1.OG)
    ab Jg. 2022: Lesesaal (EG)

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  7. Article ; Online: Scaling up complexity in host-pathogens interaction models: Comment on "Coupled disease-behavior dynamics on complex networks: A review" by Z. Wang et al.

    Aguiar, Maíra

    Physics of life reviews

    2015  Volume 15, Page(s) 41–42

    MeSH term(s) Algorithms ; Computer Simulation ; Host-Pathogen Interactions ; Humans ; Models, Biological ; Models, Statistical ; Models, Theoretical ; Nonlinear Dynamics
    Language English
    Publishing date 2015-12
    Publishing country Netherlands
    Document type Comment ; Journal Article ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
    ZDB-ID 2148883-6
    ISSN 1873-1457 ; 1571-0645
    ISSN (online) 1873-1457
    ISSN 1571-0645
    DOI 10.1016/j.plrev.2015.09.007
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  8. Article ; Online: The Impact of Serotype Cross-Protection on Vaccine Trials

    Maíra Aguiar / Nico Stollenwerk

    Vaccines, Vol 8, Iss 674, p

    DENVax as a Case Study

    2020  Volume 674

    Abstract: There is a growing public health need for effective preventive interventions against dengue, and a safe, effective and affordable dengue vaccine against the four serotypes would be a significant achievement for disease prevention and control. Two ... ...

    Abstract There is a growing public health need for effective preventive interventions against dengue, and a safe, effective and affordable dengue vaccine against the four serotypes would be a significant achievement for disease prevention and control. Two tetravalent dengue vaccines, Dengvaxia (CYD-TDV—Sanofi Pasteur) and DENVax (TAK 003—Takeda Pharmaceutical Company), have now completed phase 3 clinical trials. Although Dengvaxia resulted in serious adverse events and had to be restricted to individuals with prior dengue infections, DENVax has shown, at first glance, some encouraging results. Using the available data for the TAK 003 trial, we estimate, via the Bayesian approach, vaccine efficacy (VE) of the post-vaccination surveillance periods of 12 and 18 months. Although better measurement over a long time was expected for the second part of the post-vaccination surveillance, variation in serotype-specific efficacy needs careful consideration. Besides observing that individual serostatus prior to vaccination is determinant of DENVax vaccine efficacy, such as for Dengvaxia, we also noted, after comparing the VE estimations for 12- and 18-month periods, that vaccine efficacy is decreasing over time. The comparison of efficacies over time is informative and very important, and brings up the discussion of the role of temporary cross-immunity in dengue vaccine trials and the impact of serostatus prior to vaccination in the context of dengue fever epidemiology.
    Keywords dengue ; dengue vaccine trials ; vaccine efficacy ; cross-protection ; serotypes ; serostatus ; Medicine ; R
    Subject code 306
    Language English
    Publishing date 2020-11-01T00:00:00Z
    Publisher MDPI AG
    Document type Article ; Online
    Database BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

    Full text online

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  9. Article: The Impact of Serotype Cross-Protection on Vaccine Trials: DENVax as a Case Study.

    Aguiar, Maíra / Stollenwerk, Nico

    Vaccines

    2020  Volume 8, Issue 4

    Abstract: There is a growing public health need for effective preventive interventions against dengue, and a safe, effective and affordable dengue vaccine against the four serotypes would be a significant achievement for disease prevention and control. Two ... ...

    Abstract There is a growing public health need for effective preventive interventions against dengue, and a safe, effective and affordable dengue vaccine against the four serotypes would be a significant achievement for disease prevention and control. Two tetravalent dengue vaccines, Dengvaxia (CYD-TDV-Sanofi Pasteur) and DENVax (TAK 003-Takeda Pharmaceutical Company), have now completed phase 3 clinical trials. Although Dengvaxia resulted in serious adverse events and had to be restricted to individuals with prior dengue infections, DENVax has shown, at first glance, some encouraging results. Using the available data for the TAK 003 trial, we estimate, via the Bayesian approach, vaccine efficacy (VE) of the post-vaccination surveillance periods of 12 and 18 months. Although better measurement over a long time was expected for the second part of the post-vaccination surveillance, variation in serotype-specific efficacy needs careful consideration. Besides observing that individual serostatus prior to vaccination is determinant of DENVax vaccine efficacy, such as for Dengvaxia, we also noted, after comparing the VE estimations for 12- and 18-month periods, that vaccine efficacy is decreasing over time. The comparison of efficacies over time is informative and very important, and brings up the discussion of the role of temporary cross-immunity in dengue vaccine trials and the impact of serostatus prior to vaccination in the context of dengue fever epidemiology.
    Language English
    Publishing date 2020-11-12
    Publishing country Switzerland
    Document type Journal Article
    ZDB-ID 2703319-3
    ISSN 2076-393X
    ISSN 2076-393X
    DOI 10.3390/vaccines8040674
    Database MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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  10. Article ; Online: Biodegradable Polymer Packaging System for 'Benitaka' Table Grapes during Cold Storage.

    Silva, Ricardo Josue / de Aguiar, Aline Cristina / Simões, Bruno Matheus / da Silva, Samuel Camilo / Higuchi, Maíra Tiaki / Roberto, Sergio Ruffo / Yamashita, Fabio

    Polymers

    2024  Volume 16, Issue 2

    Abstract: A biodegradable polymer packaging system for 'Benitaka' table grapes ( ...

    Abstract A biodegradable polymer packaging system for 'Benitaka' table grapes (
    Language English
    Publishing date 2024-01-19
    Publishing country Switzerland
    Document type Journal Article
    ZDB-ID 2527146-5
    ISSN 2073-4360 ; 2073-4360
    ISSN (online) 2073-4360
    ISSN 2073-4360
    DOI 10.3390/polym16020274
    Database MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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