Article ; Online: Spatial spread of COVID-19 during the early pandemic phase in Italy.
2024 Volume 24, Issue 1, Page(s) 450
Abstract: Quantifying the potential spatial spread of an infectious pathogen is key to defining effective containment and control strategies. The aim of this study is to estimate the risk of SARS-CoV-2 transmission at different distances in Italy before the first ... ...
Abstract | Quantifying the potential spatial spread of an infectious pathogen is key to defining effective containment and control strategies. The aim of this study is to estimate the risk of SARS-CoV-2 transmission at different distances in Italy before the first regional lockdown was imposed, identifying important sources of national spreading. To do this, we leverage on a probabilistic model applied to daily symptomatic cases retrospectively ascertained in each Italian municipality with symptom onset between January 28 and March 7, 2020. Results are validated using a multi-patch dynamic transmission model reproducing the spatiotemporal distribution of identified cases. Our results show that the contribution of short-distance ( |
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MeSH term(s) | COVID-19/epidemiology ; COVID-19/transmission ; COVID-19/prevention & control ; Humans ; Italy/epidemiology ; SARS-CoV-2 ; Retrospective Studies ; Spatio-Temporal Analysis ; Pandemics ; Models, Statistical |
Language | English |
Publishing date | 2024-04-29 |
Publishing country | England |
Document type | Journal Article ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't |
ZDB-ID | 2041550-3 |
ISSN | 1471-2334 ; 1471-2334 |
ISSN (online) | 1471-2334 |
ISSN | 1471-2334 |
DOI | 10.1186/s12879-024-09343-8 |
Database | MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE |
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