Article ; Online: Synchronization in epidemic growth and the impossibility of selective containment.
Mathematical medicine and biology : a journal of the IMA
2021 Volume 38, Issue 4, Page(s) 467–473
Abstract: Containment, aiming to prevent the epidemic stage of community-spreading altogether, and mitigation, aiming to merely 'flatten the curve' of a wide-ranged outbreak, constitute two qualitatively different approaches to combating an epidemic through non- ... ...
Abstract | Containment, aiming to prevent the epidemic stage of community-spreading altogether, and mitigation, aiming to merely 'flatten the curve' of a wide-ranged outbreak, constitute two qualitatively different approaches to combating an epidemic through non-pharmaceutical interventions. Here, we study a simple model of epidemic dynamics separating the population into two groups, namely a low-risk group and a high-risk group, for which different strategies are pursued. Due to synchronization effects, we find that maintaining a slower epidemic growth behaviour for the high-risk group is unstable against any finite coupling between the two groups. More precisely, the density of infected individuals in the two groups qualitatively evolves very similarly, apart from a small time delay and an overall scaling factor quantifying the coupling between the groups. Hence, selective containment of the epidemic in a targeted (high-risk) group is practically impossible whenever the surrounding society implements a mitigated community-spreading. We relate our general findings to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. |
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MeSH term(s) | COVID-19 ; Humans ; Pandemics ; Risk Factors ; SARS-CoV-2 |
Language | English |
Publishing date | 2021-10-25 |
Publishing country | England |
Document type | Journal Article ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't |
ZDB-ID | 2119786-6 |
ISSN | 1477-8602 ; 0265-0746 ; 1477-8599 |
ISSN (online) | 1477-8602 |
ISSN | 0265-0746 ; 1477-8599 |
DOI | 10.1093/imammb/dqab013 |
Database | MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE |
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