Article ; Online: The COVID-19 pandemic: growth patterns, power law scaling, and saturation.
2020 Volume 17, Issue 5, Page(s) 55001
Abstract: More and more countries are showing a significant slowdown in the number of new COVID-19 infections due to effective governmentally instituted lockdown and social distancing measures. We have analyzed the growth behavior of the top 25 most affected ... ...
Abstract | More and more countries are showing a significant slowdown in the number of new COVID-19 infections due to effective governmentally instituted lockdown and social distancing measures. We have analyzed the growth behavior of the top 25 most affected countries by means of a local slope analysis and found three distinct patterns that individual countries follow depending on the strictness of the lockdown protocols: rise and fall, power law, or logistic. For countries showing power law growth we have determined the scaling exponents. For countries that showed a strong slowdown in the rate of infections we have extrapolated the expected saturation of the total number of infections and the expected final date. Three different extrapolation methods (logistic, parabolic, and cutoff power law) were used. All methods agree on the order of magnitude of saturation and end dates. Global infection rates are analyzed with the same methods. The relevance and accuracy of these extrapolations is discussed. |
---|---|
MeSH term(s) | Algorithms ; Betacoronavirus ; COVID-19 ; Coronavirus Infections/epidemiology ; Coronavirus Infections/transmission ; Databases, Factual ; Geography ; Human Activities ; Humans ; Logistic Models ; Pandemics ; Pneumonia, Viral/epidemiology ; Pneumonia, Viral/transmission ; Public Health ; SARS-CoV-2 ; Time Factors |
Keywords | covid19 |
Language | English |
Publishing date | 2020-07-29 |
Publishing country | England |
Document type | Journal Article |
ZDB-ID | 2133216-2 |
ISSN | 1478-3975 ; 1478-3967 |
ISSN (online) | 1478-3975 |
ISSN | 1478-3967 |
DOI | 10.1088/1478-3975/ab9bf5 |
Database | MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE |
More links
Kategorien
Order via subito
This service is chargeable due to the Delivery terms set by subito. Orders including an article and supplementary material will be classified as separate orders. In these cases, fees will be demanded for each order.