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Article ; Online: Fractal dimension based geographical clustering of COVID-19 time series data.

Natalia, Yessika Adelwin / Faes, Christel / Neyens, Thomas / Chys, Pieter / Hammami, Naïma / Molenberghs, Geert

2023 Volume 13, Issue 1, Page(s) 4322

Abstract: Understanding the local dynamics of COVID-19 transmission calls for an approach that characterizes the incidence curve in a small geographical unit. Given that incidence curves exhibit considerable day-to-day variation, the fractal structure of the time ... ...

Abstract	Understanding the local dynamics of COVID-19 transmission calls for an approach that characterizes the incidence curve in a small geographical unit. Given that incidence curves exhibit considerable day-to-day variation, the fractal structure of the time series dynamics is investigated for the Flanders and Brussels Regions of Belgium. For each statistical sector, the smallest administrative geographical entity in Belgium, fractal dimensions of COVID-19 incidence rates, based on rolling time spans of 7, 14, and 21 days were estimated using four different estimators: box-count, Hall-Wood, variogram, and madogram. We found varying patterns of fractal dimensions across time and location. The fractal dimension is further summarized by its mean, variance, and autocorrelation over time. These summary statistics are then used to cluster regions with different incidence rate patterns using k-means clustering. Fractal dimension analysis of COVID-19 incidence thus offers important insight into the past, current, and arguably future evolution of an infectious disease outbreak.
MeSH term(s)	Humans ; Fractals ; Time Factors ; COVID-19/epidemiology ; Geography ; Belgium/epidemiology
Language	English
Publishing date	2023-03-15
Publishing country	England
Document type	Journal Article ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
ZDB-ID	2615211-3
ISSN	2045-2322 ; 2045-2322
ISSN (online)	2045-2322
ISSN	2045-2322
DOI	10.1038/s41598-023-30948-7
Database	MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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Article ; Online: Key risk factors associated with fractal dimension based geographical clustering of COVID-19 data in the Flemish and Brussels region, Belgium

Yessika Adelwin Natalia / Christel Faes / Thomas Neyens / Naïma Hammami / Geert Molenberghs

Frontiers in Public Health, Vol

2023 Volume 11

Abstract: IntroductionCOVID-19 remains a major concern globally. Therefore, it is important to evaluate COVID-19's rapidly changing trends. The fractal dimension has been proposed as a viable method to characterize COVID-19 curves since epidemic data is often ... ...

Abstract	IntroductionCOVID-19 remains a major concern globally. Therefore, it is important to evaluate COVID-19's rapidly changing trends. The fractal dimension has been proposed as a viable method to characterize COVID-19 curves since epidemic data is often subject to considerable heterogeneity. In this study, we aim to investigate the association between various socio-demographic factors and the complexity of the COVID-19 curve as quantified through its fractal dimension.MethodsWe collected population indicators data (ethnic composition, socioeconomic status, number of inhabitants, population density, the older adult population proportion, vaccination rate, satisfaction, and trust in the government) at the level of the statistical sector in Belgium. We compared these data with fractal dimension indicators of COVID-19 incidence between 1 January – 31 December 2021 using canonical correlation analysis.ResultsOur results showed that these population indicators have a significant association with COVID-19 incidences, with the highest explanatory and predictive power coming from the number of inhabitants, population density, and ethnic composition.ConclusionIt is important to monitor these population indicators during a pandemic, especially when dealing with targeted interventions for a specific population.
Keywords	Belgium ; canonical correlation analysis ; COVID-19 ; fractal dimension ; socio-demographic indicators ; Public aspects of medicine ; RA1-1270
Language	English
Publishing date	2023-11-01T00:00:00Z
Publisher	Frontiers Media S.A.
Document type	Article ; Online
Database	BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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Article ; Online: The COVID-19 wave in Belgium during the Fall of 2020 and its association with higher education.

Yessika Adelwin Natalia / Christel Faes / Thomas Neyens / Geert Molenberghs

PLoS ONE, Vol 17, Iss 2, p e

2022 Volume 0264516

Abstract: Soon after SARS-CoV-2 emerged in late 2019, Belgium was confronted with a first COVID-19 wave in March-April 2020. SARS-CoV-2 circulation declined in the summer months (late May to early July 2020). Following a successfully trumped late July-August peak, ...

Abstract	Soon after SARS-CoV-2 emerged in late 2019, Belgium was confronted with a first COVID-19 wave in March-April 2020. SARS-CoV-2 circulation declined in the summer months (late May to early July 2020). Following a successfully trumped late July-August peak, COVID-19 incidence fell slightly, to then enter two successive phases of rapid incline: in the first half of September, and then again in October 2020. The first of these coincided with the peak period of returning summer travelers; the second one coincided with the start of higher education's academic year. The largest observed COVID-19 incidence occurred in the period 16-31 October, particularly in the Walloon Region, the southern, French-speaking part of Belgium. We examine the potential association of the higher education population with spatio-temporal spread of COVID-19, using Bayesian spatial Poisson models for confirmed test cases, accounting for socio-demographic heterogeneity in the population. We find a significant association between the number of COVID-19 cases in the age groups 18-29 years and 30-39 years and the size of the higher education student population at the municipality level. These results can be useful towards COVID-19 mitigation strategies, particularly in areas where virus transmission from higher education students into the broader community could exacerbate morbidity and mortality of COVID-19 among populations with prevalent underlying conditions associated with more severe outcomes following infection.
Keywords	Medicine ; R ; Science ; Q
Language	English
Publishing date	2022-01-01T00:00:00Z
Publisher	Public Library of Science (PLoS)
Document type	Article ; Online
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Article ; Online: The COVID-19 wave in Belgium during the Fall of 2020 and its association with higher education

Yessika Adelwin Natalia / Christel Faes / Thomas Neyens / Geert Molenberghs

PLoS ONE, Vol 17, Iss

2022 Volume 2

Abstract	Soon after SARS-CoV-2 emerged in late 2019, Belgium was confronted with a first COVID-19 wave in March-April 2020. SARS-CoV-2 circulation declined in the summer months (late May to early July 2020). Following a successfully trumped late July-August peak, COVID-19 incidence fell slightly, to then enter two successive phases of rapid incline: in the first half of September, and then again in October 2020. The first of these coincided with the peak period of returning summer travelers; the second one coincided with the start of higher education’s academic year. The largest observed COVID-19 incidence occurred in the period 16–31 October, particularly in the Walloon Region, the southern, French-speaking part of Belgium. We examine the potential association of the higher education population with spatio-temporal spread of COVID-19, using Bayesian spatial Poisson models for confirmed test cases, accounting for socio-demographic heterogeneity in the population. We find a significant association between the number of COVID-19 cases in the age groups 18–29 years and 30–39 years and the size of the higher education student population at the municipality level. These results can be useful towards COVID-19 mitigation strategies, particularly in areas where virus transmission from higher education students into the broader community could exacerbate morbidity and mortality of COVID-19 among populations with prevalent underlying conditions associated with more severe outcomes following infection.
Keywords	Medicine ; R ; Science ; Q
Language	English
Publishing date	2022-01-01T00:00:00Z
Publisher	Public Library of Science (PLoS)
Document type	Article ; Online
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Article ; Online: Key risk factors associated with fractal dimension based geographical clustering of COVID-19 data in the Flemish and Brussels region, Belgium.

Natalia, Yessika Adelwin / Faes, Christel / Neyens, Thomas / Hammami, Naïma / Molenberghs, Geert

Frontiers in public health

2023 Volume 11, Page(s) 1249141

Abstract: Introduction: COVID-19 remains a major concern globally. Therefore, it is important to evaluate COVID-19's rapidly changing trends. The fractal dimension has been proposed as a viable method to characterize COVID-19 curves since epidemic data is often ... ...

Abstract	Introduction: COVID-19 remains a major concern globally. Therefore, it is important to evaluate COVID-19's rapidly changing trends. The fractal dimension has been proposed as a viable method to characterize COVID-19 curves since epidemic data is often subject to considerable heterogeneity. In this study, we aim to investigate the association between various socio-demographic factors and the complexity of the COVID-19 curve as quantified through its fractal dimension. Methods: We collected population indicators data (ethnic composition, socioeconomic status, number of inhabitants, population density, the older adult population proportion, vaccination rate, satisfaction, and trust in the government) at the level of the statistical sector in Belgium. We compared these data with fractal dimension indicators of COVID-19 incidence between 1 January - 31 December 2021 using canonical correlation analysis. Results: Our results showed that these population indicators have a significant association with COVID-19 incidences, with the highest explanatory and predictive power coming from the number of inhabitants, population density, and ethnic composition. Conclusion: It is important to monitor these population indicators during a pandemic, especially when dealing with targeted interventions for a specific population.
MeSH term(s)	Humans ; Aged ; Fractals ; Belgium/epidemiology ; COVID-19/epidemiology ; Cluster Analysis ; Risk Factors
Language	English
Publishing date	2023-11-03
Publishing country	Switzerland
Document type	Journal Article
ZDB-ID	2711781-9
ISSN	2296-2565 ; 2296-2565
ISSN (online)	2296-2565
ISSN	2296-2565
DOI	10.3389/fpubh.2023.1249141
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Article ; Online: Assessing the impact of COVID-19 passes and mandates on disease transmission, vaccination intention, and uptake: a scoping review.

Natalia, Yessika Adelwin / Delporte, Margaux / De Witte, Dries / Beutels, Philippe / Dewatripont, Mathias / Molenberghs, Geert

BMC public health

2023 Volume 23, Issue 1, Page(s) 2279

Abstract: Purpose: Policymakers have struggled to maintain SARS-CoV-2 transmission at levels that are manageable to contain the COVID-19 disease burden while enabling a maximum of societal and economic activities. One of the tools that have been used to ... ...

Abstract	Purpose: Policymakers have struggled to maintain SARS-CoV-2 transmission at levels that are manageable to contain the COVID-19 disease burden while enabling a maximum of societal and economic activities. One of the tools that have been used to facilitate this is the so-called "COVID-19 pass". We aimed to document current evidence on the effectiveness of COVID-19 passes, distinguishing their indirect effects by improving vaccination intention and uptake from their direct effects on COVID-19 transmission measured by the incidence of cases, hospitalizations, and deaths. Methods: We performed a scoping review on the scientific literature of the proposed topic covering the period January 2021 to September 2022, in accordance with the PRISMA-ScR guidelines for scoping reviews. Results: Out of a yield of 4,693 publications, 45 studies from multiple countries were retained for full-text review. The results suggest that implementing COVID-19 passes tends to reduce the incidence of cases, hospitalizations, and deaths due to COVID-19. The use of COVID-19 passes was also shown to improve overall vaccination uptake and intention, but not in people who hold strong anti-COVID-19 vaccine beliefs. Conclusion: The evidence from the literature we reviewed tends to indicate positive direct and indirect effects from the use of COVID-19 passes. A major limitation to establishing this firmly is the entanglement of individual effects of multiple measures being implemented simultaneously.
MeSH term(s)	Humans ; COVID-19/epidemiology ; COVID-19/prevention & control ; SARS-CoV-2 ; Intention ; COVID-19 Vaccines ; Vaccination
Chemical Substances	COVID-19 Vaccines
Language	English
Publishing date	2023-11-17
Publishing country	England
Document type	Systematic Review ; Review ; Journal Article ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
ZDB-ID	2041338-5
ISSN	1471-2458 ; 1471-2458
ISSN (online)	1471-2458
ISSN	1471-2458
DOI	10.1186/s12889-023-17203-4
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Article ; Online: The COVID-19 wave in Belgium during the Fall of 2020 and its association with higher education.

Natalia, Yessika Adelwin / Faes, Christel / Neyens, Thomas / Molenberghs, Geert

PloS one

2022 Volume 17, Issue 2, Page(s) e0264516

Abstract	Soon after SARS-CoV-2 emerged in late 2019, Belgium was confronted with a first COVID-19 wave in March-April 2020. SARS-CoV-2 circulation declined in the summer months (late May to early July 2020). Following a successfully trumped late July-August peak, COVID-19 incidence fell slightly, to then enter two successive phases of rapid incline: in the first half of September, and then again in October 2020. The first of these coincided with the peak period of returning summer travelers; the second one coincided with the start of higher education's academic year. The largest observed COVID-19 incidence occurred in the period 16-31 October, particularly in the Walloon Region, the southern, French-speaking part of Belgium. We examine the potential association of the higher education population with spatio-temporal spread of COVID-19, using Bayesian spatial Poisson models for confirmed test cases, accounting for socio-demographic heterogeneity in the population. We find a significant association between the number of COVID-19 cases in the age groups 18-29 years and 30-39 years and the size of the higher education student population at the municipality level. These results can be useful towards COVID-19 mitigation strategies, particularly in areas where virus transmission from higher education students into the broader community could exacerbate morbidity and mortality of COVID-19 among populations with prevalent underlying conditions associated with more severe outcomes following infection.
MeSH term(s)	Adolescent ; Adult ; Belgium ; COVID-19/epidemiology ; Humans ; Incidence ; Pandemics ; Prevalence ; Students ; Universities ; Young Adult
Language	English
Publishing date	2022-02-25
Publishing country	United States
Document type	Journal Article ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
ZDB-ID	2267670-3
ISSN	1932-6203 ; 1932-6203
ISSN (online)	1932-6203
ISSN	1932-6203
DOI	10.1371/journal.pone.0264516
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Article ; Online: The Effect of Transborder Mobility on COVID-19 Incidences in Belgium.

Brackx, Febe / Vanongeval, Fien / Natalia, Yessika Adelwin / Molenberghs, Geert / Steenberghen, Thérèse

International journal of environmental research and public health

2022 Volume 19, Issue 16

Abstract: Belgium is a geographically small country bordered by The Netherlands, France, Germany, and Luxembourg, with intense transborder mobility, defined as mobility in the border regions with neighboring countries. It is therefore of interest to examine how ... ...

Abstract	Belgium is a geographically small country bordered by The Netherlands, France, Germany, and Luxembourg, with intense transborder mobility, defined as mobility in the border regions with neighboring countries. It is therefore of interest to examine how the 14-day COVID-19 confirmed case incidence in the border regions is influenced by that of the adjacent regions in the neighboring countries and thus, whether and how it differs from that in the adjacent non-border regions within Belgium. To this end, the 14-day COVID-19 confirmed case incidence is studied at the level of Belgian provinces, well-defined border areas within Belgium, and adjacent regions in the neighboring countries. Auxiliary information encompasses work-related border traffic, travel rates, the proportion of people with a different nationality, the stringency index of the non-pharmaceutical interventions, and the degree of urbanization at the level of the municipality. Especially in transnational urbanized areas such as between the Belgian and Dutch provinces of Limburg and between the Belgian province of Antwerp and the Dutch province of North Brabant, the impact on incidence is visible, at least at some points in time, especially when the national incidences differ between neighboring countries. In contrast, the intra-Belgian language border regions show very little transborder impact on the incidence curves, except around the Brussels capital region, leading to various periods where the incidences are very different in the Dutch-speaking north and the French-speaking south of Belgium. Our findings suggest that while travel restrictions may be needed at some points during a pandemic, a more fine-grained approach than merely closing national borders may be considered. At the same time, in border regions with considerable transborder mobility, it is recommended to coordinate the non-pharmaceutical interventions between the authorities of the various countries overlapping with the border region. While this seems logical, there are clear counterexamples, e.g., where non-essential shops, restaurants, and bars are closed in one country but not in the neighboring country.
MeSH term(s)	Belgium/epidemiology ; COVID-19/epidemiology ; Germany ; Humans ; Incidence ; Netherlands/epidemiology
Language	English
Publishing date	2022-08-12
Publishing country	Switzerland
Document type	Journal Article
ZDB-ID	2175195-X
ISSN	1660-4601 ; 1661-7827
ISSN (online)	1660-4601
ISSN	1661-7827
DOI	10.3390/ijerph19169968
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Article ; Online: Spatial and temporal analysis of hospitalized dengue patients in Bandung

Lia Faridah / I. Gede Nyoman Mindra / Ramadhani Eka Putra / Nisa Fauziah / Dwi Agustian / Yessika Adelwin Natalia / Kozo Watanabe

Tropical Medicine and Health, Vol 49, Iss 1, Pp 1-

demographics and risk

2021 Volume 9

Abstract: Abstract Background Bandung, the fourth largest city in Indonesia and capital of West Java province, has been considered a major endemic area of dengue, and studies show that the incidence in this city could increase and spread rapidly. At the same time, ...

Abstract	Abstract Background Bandung, the fourth largest city in Indonesia and capital of West Java province, has been considered a major endemic area of dengue, and studies show that the incidence in this city could increase and spread rapidly. At the same time, estimation of incidence could be inaccurate due to a lack of reliable surveillance systems. To provide strategic information for the dengue control program in the face of limited capacity, this study used spatial pattern analysis of a possible outbreak of dengue cases, through the Geographic Information System (GIS). To further enhance the information needed for effective policymaking, we also analyzed the demographic pattern of dengue cases. Methods Monthly reports of dengue cases from January 2014 to December 2016 from 16 hospitals in Bandung were collected as the database, which consisted of address, sex, age, and code to anonymize the patients. The address was then transformed into geocoding and used to estimate the relative risk of a particular area’s developing a cluster of dengue cases. We used the kernel density estimation method to analyze the dynamics of change of dengue cases. Results The model showed that the spatial cluster of the relative risk of dengue incidence was relatively unchanged for 3 years. Dengue high-risk areas predominated in the southern and southeastern parts of Bandung, while low-risk areas were found mostly in its western and northeastern regions. The kernel density estimation showed strong cluster groups of dengue cases in the city. Conclusions This study demonstrated a strong pattern of reported cases related to specific demographic groups (males and children). Furthermore, spatial analysis using GIS also visualized the dynamic development of the aggregation of disease incidence (hotspots) for dengue cases in Bandung. These data may provide strategic information for the planning and design of dengue control programs.
Keywords	Bandung ; Dengue infection ; Spatial pattern ; Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine ; RC955-962
Subject code	910
Language	English
Publishing date	2021-05-01T00:00:00Z
Publisher	BMC
Document type	Article ; Online
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Article: Spatial and temporal analysis of hospitalized dengue patients in Bandung: demographics and risk.

Faridah, Lia / Mindra, I Gede Nyoman / Putra, Ramadhani Eka / Fauziah, Nisa / Agustian, Dwi / Natalia, Yessika Adelwin / Watanabe, Kozo

Tropical medicine and health

2021 Volume 49, Issue 1, Page(s) 44

Abstract: Background: Bandung, the fourth largest city in Indonesia and capital of West Java province, has been considered a major endemic area of dengue, and studies show that the incidence in this city could increase and spread rapidly. At the same time, ... ...

Abstract	Background: Bandung, the fourth largest city in Indonesia and capital of West Java province, has been considered a major endemic area of dengue, and studies show that the incidence in this city could increase and spread rapidly. At the same time, estimation of incidence could be inaccurate due to a lack of reliable surveillance systems. To provide strategic information for the dengue control program in the face of limited capacity, this study used spatial pattern analysis of a possible outbreak of dengue cases, through the Geographic Information System (GIS). To further enhance the information needed for effective policymaking, we also analyzed the demographic pattern of dengue cases. Methods: Monthly reports of dengue cases from January 2014 to December 2016 from 16 hospitals in Bandung were collected as the database, which consisted of address, sex, age, and code to anonymize the patients. The address was then transformed into geocoding and used to estimate the relative risk of a particular area's developing a cluster of dengue cases. We used the kernel density estimation method to analyze the dynamics of change of dengue cases. Results: The model showed that the spatial cluster of the relative risk of dengue incidence was relatively unchanged for 3 years. Dengue high-risk areas predominated in the southern and southeastern parts of Bandung, while low-risk areas were found mostly in its western and northeastern regions. The kernel density estimation showed strong cluster groups of dengue cases in the city. Conclusions: This study demonstrated a strong pattern of reported cases related to specific demographic groups (males and children). Furthermore, spatial analysis using GIS also visualized the dynamic development of the aggregation of disease incidence (hotspots) for dengue cases in Bandung. These data may provide strategic information for the planning and design of dengue control programs.
Language	English
Publishing date	2021-05-26
Publishing country	Japan
Document type	Journal Article
ZDB-ID	2209835-5
ISSN	1349-4147 ; 1348-8945
ISSN (online)	1349-4147
ISSN	1348-8945
DOI	10.1186/s41182-021-00329-9
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