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  1. Article ; Online: Spatial transmission of the economic impacts of COVID-19 through international trade.

    Rose, Adam / Walmsley, Terrie / Wei, Dan

    Letters in spatial and resource sciences

    2021  Volume 14, Issue 2, Page(s) 169–196

    Abstract: While most of the attention to COVID-19 is being focused on the physical transmission of the virus across country borders, there is also an analogous spatial transmission of economic impacts through international trade and global supply chains. This ... ...

    Abstract While most of the attention to COVID-19 is being focused on the physical transmission of the virus across country borders, there is also an analogous spatial transmission of economic impacts through international trade and global supply chains. This paper presents an analysis of the extent to which the economic shocks of mandatory closures to mitigate the pandemic ripple through the world economy. We utilize a state-of-the-art computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to analyze these interconnections through international trade. We compare estimates of the impacts on US GDP in isolation and then examine the impacts taking into account US trade with China and the rest of the world (ROW). Our analysis indicates that these international trade linkage impacts are generally negative and range from near zero to very large overall, depending on the region, and that own- and cross-country impacts differ by region as well. At the same time, we find that China is able to capitalize on the situation by actually being able to increase its exports through international trade following mandatory closures in other regions. We also confirm that the US economy was relatively insulated from trade linkages with the rest of the world. Sectoral impacts provide further insight into the results.
    Language English
    Publishing date 2021-08-09
    Publishing country Germany
    Document type Journal Article
    ZDB-ID 2436019-3
    ISSN 1864-404X ; 1864-4031
    ISSN (online) 1864-404X
    ISSN 1864-4031
    DOI 10.1007/s12076-021-00271-8
    Database MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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  2. Article ; Online: The Impacts of the Coronavirus on the Economy of the United States.

    Walmsley, Terrie / Rose, Adam / Wei, Dan

    Economics of disasters and climate change

    2020  Volume 5, Issue 1, Page(s) 1–52

    Abstract: We present a formal analysis of the macroeconomic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic in the U.S., China and the rest of the world. Given the uncertainty regarding the severity and time-path of the infections and related conditions, we examine three ... ...

    Abstract We present a formal analysis of the macroeconomic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic in the U.S., China and the rest of the world. Given the uncertainty regarding the severity and time-path of the infections and related conditions, we examine three scenarios, ranging from a relatively moderate event to a disaster. The study considers a comprehensive list of causal factors affecting the impacts, including: mandatory closures and the gradual re-opening process; decline in workforce due to morbidity, mortality and avoidance behavior; increased demand for health care; decreased demand for public transportation and leisure activities; potential resilience through telework; increased demand for communication services; and increased pent-up demand. We apply a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, a state-of-the-art economy-wide modeling technique. It traces the broader economic ramifications of individual responses of producers and consumers through supply chains both within and across countries. We project that the net U.S. GDP losses from COVID-19 would range from $3.2 trillion (14.8%) to $4.8 trillion (23.0%) in a 2-year period for the three scenarios. U.S. impacts are estimated to be higher than those for China and the ROW in percentage terms. The major factor affecting the results in all three scenarios is the combination of Mandatory Closures and Partial Reopenings of businesses. These alone would have resulted in a 22.3% to 60.6% decrease in U.S. GDP across the scenarios. Pent-up Demand, generated from the inability to spend during the Closures/Reopenings, is the second most influential factor, significantly offsetting the overall negative impacts.
    Language English
    Publishing date 2020-12-10
    Publishing country Switzerland
    Document type Journal Article
    ZDB-ID 2877901-0
    ISSN 2511-1299 ; 2511-1280
    ISSN (online) 2511-1299
    ISSN 2511-1280
    DOI 10.1007/s41885-020-00080-1
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  3. Article ; Online: Impacts on the U.S. Macroeconomy of Mandatory Business Closures in Response to the COVID-19 Pandemic

    Walmsley, Terrie / Rose, Adam / Wei, Dan

    SSRN Electronic Journal ; ISSN 1556-5068

    2020  

    Keywords covid19
    Language English
    Publisher Elsevier BV
    Publishing country us
    Document type Article ; Online
    DOI 10.2139/ssrn.3570117
    Database BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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  4. Article ; Online: Impacts on the U.S. macroeconomy of mandatory business closures in response to the COVID-19 Pandemic

    Walmsley, Terrie Louise / Rose, Adam / Wei, Dan

    Applied Economics Letters

    2020  , Page(s) 1–8

    Keywords Economics and Econometrics ; covid19
    Language English
    Publisher Informa UK Limited
    Publishing country uk
    Document type Article ; Online
    ZDB-ID 1484783-8
    ISSN 1466-4291 ; 1350-4851
    ISSN (online) 1466-4291
    ISSN 1350-4851
    DOI 10.1080/13504851.2020.1809626
    Database BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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  5. Article: Impacts on the U.S. macroeconomy of mandatory business closures in response to the COVID-19 Pandemic

    Walmsley, Terrie Louise / Rose, Adam / Wei, Dan

    Appl. Econ. Lett.

    Abstract: We estimate the macroeconomic impacts of mandatory business closures in the U.S. and many other countries in order to control the spread of the COVID-19. The analysis is based on the application of a modified version of the GTAP model. We simulate ... ...

    Abstract We estimate the macroeconomic impacts of mandatory business closures in the U.S. and many other countries in order to control the spread of the COVID-19. The analysis is based on the application of a modified version of the GTAP model. We simulate mandatory closures in all countries or parts of countries that had imposed them as of 7 April for three-month and six-month cases. For the three-month scenario, we estimate a 20.3% decline of U.S. GDP on an annual basis, or $4.3 trillion. The employment decline of 22.4% in the U.S. for the three-month closure represents 35.2 million workers for that period. If the mandatory closures are extended to six months because of a second wave, these negative impacts would slightly more than double. The employment impacts are slightly greater in percentage terms than the GDP impacts because most service sectors, which are generally more labour-intensive, are more negatively impacted by the closures than are ‘essential’ sectors. Our results should be considered upper-bound estimates given such assumptions as businesses laying off workers no longer paying them wages or salaries. Note also that the article examines the mandatory closures alone and does not factor in any countervailing fiscal or monetary policies.
    Keywords covid19
    Publisher WHO
    Document type Article
    Note WHO #Covidence: #726987
    Database COVID19

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  6. Article: Labour migration and economic growth in East and South-East Asia

    Walmsley, Terrie L / Aguiar, Angel / Ahmed, Syud Amer

    The world economy : the leading journal on international economic relations Vol. 40, No. 1 , p. 116-139

    2017  Volume 40, Issue 1, Page(s) 116–139

    Author's details Terrie Walmsley, Angel Aguiar and Syud Amer Ahmed
    Keywords Bevölkerungsentwicklung ; Wirtschaftswachstum ; Arbeitskräftepotenzial ; Arbeitsmigranten ; Migrationspolitik ; Simulation ; Prognose ; Ostasien ; Südostasien
    Language English
    Publisher Wiley-Blackwell
    Publishing place Oxford
    Document type Article
    ZDB-ID 132896-7 ; 1473825-9
    ISSN 1467-9701 ; 0378-5920
    ISSN (online) 1467-9701
    ISSN 0378-5920
    Database ECONomics Information System

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  7. Article: Dispute settlement at the WTO

    Lakatos, Csilla / Walmsley, Terrie

    The world economy : the leading journal on international economic relations Vol. 37, No. 2 , p. 244-266

    impacts of a no deal in the US-Brazil cotton dispute

    2014  Volume 37, Issue 2, Page(s) 244–266

    Author's details Csilla Lakatos and Terrie Walmsley
    Keywords Baumwolle ; Außenhandel ; Handelskonflikt ; USA ; Brasilien ; WTO-Recht ; Internationale Schiedsgerichtsbarkeit
    Language English
    Size graph. Darst.
    Publisher Wiley-Blackwell
    Publishing place Oxford
    Document type Article
    ZDB-ID 132896-7 ; 1473825-9
    ISSN 1467-9701 ; 0378-5920
    ISSN (online) 1467-9701
    ISSN 0378-5920
    Database ECONomics Information System

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  8. Article: The importance of timing in the US response to undocumented immigrants

    Aguiar, Angel / Walmsley, Terrie L

    Economic modelling Vol. 41 , p. 153-262

    a recursive dynamic approach

    2014  Volume 41, Page(s) 153–262

    Author's details Angel H. Aguiar; Terrie L. Walmsley
    Keywords Global dynamic general equilibrium model ; U.S. immigration policy ; Undocumented immigrants
    Language English
    Size graph. Darst.
    Publisher Elsevier
    Publishing place Amsterdam [u.a.]
    Document type Article
    ZDB-ID 86824-3
    ISSN 0264-9993
    Database ECONomics Information System

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  9. Article: The importance of timing in the US response to undocumented immigrants

    Aguiar, Angel / Walmsley, Terrie L

    Economic modelling Vol. 41 , p. 253-262

    a recursive dynamic approach

    2014  Volume 41, Page(s) 253–262

    Author's details Angel H. Aguiar; Terrie L. Walmsley
    Keywords Global dynamic general equilibrium model ; U.S. immigration policy ; Undocumented immigrants
    Language English
    Size graph. Darst.
    Publisher Elsevier
    Publishing place Amsterdam [u.a.]
    Document type Article
    ZDB-ID 86824-3
    ISSN 0264-9993
    Database ECONomics Information System

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  10. Book ; Online: Small Cities, Big Issues: Reconceiving Community in a Neoliberal Era

    Kading, Edited by Christopher Walmsley and Terry

    2018  

    Abstract: Small Canadian cities confront serious social issues as a result of the neoliberal economic restructuring practiced by both federal and provincial governments since the 1980s. Drastic spending reductions and ongoing restraint in social assistance, income ...

    Abstract Small Canadian cities confront serious social issues as a result of the neoliberal economic restructuring practiced by both federal and provincial governments since the 1980s. Drastic spending reductions and ongoing restraint in social assistance, income supports, and the provision of affordable housing, combined with the offloading of social responsibilities onto municipalities, has contributed to the generalization of social issues once chiefly associated with Canada's largest urban centres. As the investigations in this volume illustrate, while some communities responded to these issues with inclusionary and progressive actions others were more exclusionary and reactive-revealing forms of discrimination, exclusion, and "othering" in the implementation of practices and policies. Importantly, however their investigations reveal a broad range of responses to the social issues they face. No matter the process and results of the proposed solutions, what the contributors uncovered were distinctive attributes of the small city as it struggles to confront increasingly complex social issues. If local governments accept a social agenda as part of its responsibilities, the contributors to <em>Small Cities, Big Issues</em> believe that small cities can succeed in reconceiving community based on the ideals of acceptance, accommodation, and inclusion
    Keywords Social pathology. Social and public welfare. Criminology ; Social history and conditions. Social problems. Social reform
    Size 1 electronic resource (334 p.)
    Publisher Athabasca University Press
    Document type Book ; Online
    Note English ; Open Access
    HBZ-ID HT020099077
    ISBN 9781771991636 ; 9781771991643 ; 9781771991650 ; 1771991631 ; 177199164X ; 1771991658
    Database ZB MED Catalogue: Medicine, Health, Nutrition, Environment, Agriculture

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