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Article: Explaining uncertainty in women's fertility preferences.

van Tintelen, Amke M G / Stulp, Gert

2024 Volume 10, Issue 6, Page(s) e27610

Abstract: People's fertility preferences are often considered an important determinant of fertility. What is often neglected in studies of preferred fertility, is the uncertainty that people may have about their preferences. In this study, using data on Dutch ... ...

Abstract	People's fertility preferences are often considered an important determinant of fertility. What is often neglected in studies of preferred fertility, is the uncertainty that people may have about their preferences. In this study, using data on Dutch women through the Longitudinal Internet studies for the Social Sciences (collected early 2018), we examined women's fertility preferences and asked detailed questions about the certainty of these preferences. We also examined whether women agreed with their partner on preferred family size, and to what extent partner (dis)agreement shaped uncertainty. We show that Dutch women expressed much uncertainty about their fertility preferences, with only one-third feeling strongly about their preferences. Uncertainty strongly increased when women preferred higher numbers of children, whereas already having children reduced it. Women who wanted no children were most certain about their preference. Higher preferred family sizes also led to more disagreement with the partner about these preferences, and greater partner disagreement, in turn, led to more uncertainty. These findings imply that people are more likely to downgrade their fertility preferences than to increase them, as women are more certain about their preferences for lower numbers of children and are more open to family sizes below than above their preferred choice. Partner disagreement is often resolved by not having (more) children, lowering realised fertility. Hence, these findings provide another explanation for why many people have fewer children than desired.
Language	English
Publishing date	2024-03-11
Publishing country	England
Document type	Journal Article
ZDB-ID	2835763-2
ISSN	2405-8440
ISSN	2405-8440
DOI	10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e27610
Database	MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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Article ; Online: Predicting Mood Based on the Social Context Measured Through the Experience Sampling Method, Digital Phenotyping, and Social Networks.

Langener, Anna M / Bringmann, Laura F / Kas, Martien J / Stulp, Gert

Administration and policy in mental health

2024

Abstract: Social interactions are essential for well-being. Therefore, researchers increasingly attempt to capture an individual's social context to predict well-being, including mood. Different tools are used to measure various aspects of the social context. ... ...

Abstract	Social interactions are essential for well-being. Therefore, researchers increasingly attempt to capture an individual's social context to predict well-being, including mood. Different tools are used to measure various aspects of the social context. Digital phenotyping is a commonly used technology to assess a person's social behavior objectively. The experience sampling method (ESM) can capture the subjective perception of specific interactions. Lastly, egocentric networks are often used to measure specific relationship characteristics. These different methods capture different aspects of the social context over different time scales that are related to well-being, and combining them may be necessary to improve the prediction of well-being. Yet, they have rarely been combined in previous research. To address this gap, our study investigates the predictive accuracy of mood based on the social context. We collected intensive within-person data from multiple passive and self-report sources over a 28-day period in a student sample (Participants: N = 11, ESM measures: N = 1313). We trained individualized random forest machine learning models, using different predictors included in each model summarized over different time scales. Our findings revealed that even when combining social interactions data using different methods, predictive accuracy of mood remained low. The average coefficient of determination over all participants was 0.06 for positive and negative affect and ranged from - 0.08 to 0.3, indicating a large amount of variance across people. Furthermore, the optimal set of predictors varied across participants; however, predicting mood using all predictors generally yielded the best predictions. While combining different predictors improved predictive accuracy of mood for most participants, our study highlights the need for further work using larger and more diverse samples to enhance the clinical utility of these predictive modeling approaches.
Language	English
Publishing date	2024-01-10
Publishing country	United States
Document type	Journal Article
ZDB-ID	1025319-1
ISSN	1573-3289 ; 0894-587X
ISSN (online)	1573-3289
ISSN	0894-587X
DOI	10.1007/s10488-023-01328-0
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Article: A data-driven approach shows that individuals' characteristics are more important than their networks in predicting fertility preferences.

Stulp, Gert / Top, Lars / Xu, Xiao / Sivak, Elizaveta

Royal Society open science

2023 Volume 10, Issue 12, Page(s) 230988

Abstract: People's networks are considered key in explaining fertility outcomes-whether people want and have children. Existing research on social influences on fertility is limited because data often come from small networks or highly selective samples, only few ... ...

Abstract	People's networks are considered key in explaining fertility outcomes-whether people want and have children. Existing research on social influences on fertility is limited because data often come from small networks or highly selective samples, only few network variables are considered, and the strength of network effects is not properly assessed. We use data from a representative sample of Dutch women reporting on over 18 000 relationships. A data-driven approach including many network characteristics accounted for 0 to 40% of the out-of-sample variation in different outcomes related to fertility preferences. Individual characteristics were more important for all outcomes than network variables. Network composition was also important, particularly those people in the network desiring children or those choosing to be childfree. Structural network characteristics, which feature prominently in social influence theories and are based on the relations between people in the networks, hardly mattered. We discuss to what extent our results provide support for different mechanisms of social influence, and the advantages and disadvantages of our data-driven approach in comparison to traditional approaches.
Language	English
Publishing date	2023-12-20
Publishing country	England
Document type	Journal Article
ZDB-ID	2787755-3
ISSN	2054-5703
ISSN	2054-5703
DOI	10.1098/rsos.230988
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Article ; Online: A data-driven approach shows that individuals' characteristics are more important than their networks in predicting fertility preferences

Gert Stulp / Lars Top / Xiao Xu / Elizaveta Sivak

Royal Society Open Science, Vol 10, Iss

2023 Volume 12

Abstract: People's networks are considered key in explaining fertility outcomes—whether people want and have children. Existing research on social influences on fertility is limited because data often come from small networks or highly selective samples, only few ... ...

Abstract	People's networks are considered key in explaining fertility outcomes—whether people want and have children. Existing research on social influences on fertility is limited because data often come from small networks or highly selective samples, only few network variables are considered, and the strength of network effects is not properly assessed. We use data from a representative sample of Dutch women reporting on over 18 000 relationships. A data-driven approach including many network characteristics accounted for 0 to 40% of the out-of-sample variation in different outcomes related to fertility preferences. Individual characteristics were more important for all outcomes than network variables. Network composition was also important, particularly those people in the network desiring children or those choosing to be childfree. Structural network characteristics, which feature prominently in social influence theories and are based on the relations between people in the networks, hardly mattered. We discuss to what extent our results provide support for different mechanisms of social influence, and the advantages and disadvantages of our data-driven approach in comparison to traditional approaches.
Keywords	fertility ; personal network ; social influence ; predictive ability ; LASSO regression ; Science ; Q
Subject code	338
Language	English
Publishing date	2023-12-01T00:00:00Z
Publisher	The Royal Society
Document type	Article ; Online
Database	BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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Article: Capturing the Dynamics of the Social Environment Through Experience Sampling Methods, Passive Sensing, and Egocentric Networks: Scoping Review.

Langener, Anna M / Stulp, Gert / Kas, Martien J / Bringmann, Laura F

JMIR mental health

2023 Volume 10, Page(s) e42646

Abstract: Background: Social interactions are important for well-being, and therefore, researchers are increasingly attempting to capture people's social environment. Many different disciplines have developed tools to measure the social environment, which can be ... ...

Abstract	Background: Social interactions are important for well-being, and therefore, researchers are increasingly attempting to capture people's social environment. Many different disciplines have developed tools to measure the social environment, which can be highly variable over time. The experience sampling method (ESM) is often used in psychology to study the dynamics within a person and the social environment. In addition, passive sensing is often used to capture social behavior via sensors from smartphones or other wearable devices. Furthermore, sociologists use egocentric networks to track how social relationships are changing. Each of these methods is likely to tap into different but important parts of people's social environment. Thus far, the development and implementation of these methods have occurred mostly separately from each other. Objective: Our aim was to synthesize the literature on how these methods are currently used to capture the changing social environment in relation to well-being and assess how to best combine these methods to study well-being. Methods: We conducted a scoping review according to the PRISMA (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses) guidelines. Results: We included 275 studies. In total, 3 important points follow from our review. First, each method captures a different but important part of the social environment at a different temporal resolution. Second, measures are rarely validated (>70% of ESM studies and 50% of passive sensing studies were not validated), which undermines the robustness of the conclusions drawn. Third, a combination of methods is currently lacking (only 15/275, 5.5% of the studies combined ESM and passive sensing, and no studies combined all 3 methods) but is essential in understanding well-being. Conclusions: We highlight that the practice of using poorly validated measures hampers progress in understanding the relationship between the changing social environment and well-being. We conclude that different methods should be combined more often to reduce the participants' burden and form a holistic perspective on the social environment.
Language	English
Publishing date	2023-03-17
Publishing country	Canada
Document type	Journal Article ; Review
ZDB-ID	2798262-2
ISSN	2368-7959
ISSN	2368-7959
DOI	10.2196/42646
Database	MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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Article ; Online: How might life history theory contribute to life course theory?

Stulp, Gert / Sear, Rebecca

Advances in life course research

2019 Volume 41, Page(s) 100281

Language	English
Publishing date	2019-04-04
Publishing country	Netherlands
Document type	Journal Article
ZDB-ID	2474504-2
ISSN	1879-6974 ; 1569-4909
ISSN (online)	1879-6974
ISSN	1569-4909
DOI	10.1016/j.alcr.2019.04.011
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Article ; Online: Do Data from Large Personal Networks Support Cultural Evolutionary Ideas about Kin and Fertility?

Gert Stulp / Louise Barrett

Social Sciences, Vol 10, Iss 177, p

2021 Volume 177

Abstract: The fertility decline associated with economic development has been attributed to a host of interrelated causes including the rising costs of children with industrialization, and shifts in family structure. One hypothesis is that kin may impart more pro- ... ...

Abstract	The fertility decline associated with economic development has been attributed to a host of interrelated causes including the rising costs of children with industrialization, and shifts in family structure. One hypothesis is that kin may impart more pro-natal information within their networks than non-kin, and that this effect may be exacerbated in networks with high kin-density where greater social conformity would be expected. In this study, we tested these ideas using large personal networks (25 associates of the respondent) collected from a sample of Dutch women ( N = 706). Kin (parents) were perceived to exert slightly more social pressure to have children than non-kin, although dense networks were not associated with greater pressure. In contrast, women reported talking to friends about having children to a greater extent than kin, although greater kin-density in the network increased the likelihood of women reporting that they could talk to kin about having children. Both consanguineal and affinal kin could be asked to help with child-care to a greater extent than friends and other non-kin. Overall, there was mixed evidence that kin were more likely to offer pro-natal information than non-kin, and better evidence to suggest that kin were considered to be a better source of child-care support.
Keywords	kin ; affinal kin ; density ; personal network ; social support ; social pressure ; Social Sciences ; H
Subject code	360
Language	English
Publishing date	2021-05-01T00:00:00Z
Publisher	MDPI AG
Document type	Article ; Online
Database	BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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Article ; Online: Feedback About a Person's Social Context - Personal Networks and Daily Social Interactions.

Stadel, Marie / Stulp, Gert / Langener, Anna M / Elmer, Timon / van Duijn, Marijtje A J / Bringmann, Laura F

Administration and policy in mental health

2023

Abstract: The social context of a person, meaning their social relationships and daily social interactions, is an important factor for understanding their mental health. However, personalised feedback approaches to psychotherapy do not consider this factor ... ...

Abstract	The social context of a person, meaning their social relationships and daily social interactions, is an important factor for understanding their mental health. However, personalised feedback approaches to psychotherapy do not consider this factor sufficiently yet. Therefore, we developed an interactive feedback prototype focusing specifically on a person's social relationships as captured with personal social networks (PSN) and daily social interactions as captured with experience sampling methodology (ESM). We describe the development of the prototype as well as two evaluation studies: Semi-structured interviews with students (N = 23) and a focus group discussion with five psychotherapy patients. Participants from both studies considered the prototype useful. The students considered participation in our study, which included social context assessment via PSN and ESM as well as a feedback session, insightful. However, it remains unclear how much insight the feedback procedure generated for the students beyond the insights they already gained from the assessments. The focus group patients indicated that in a clinical context, (social context) feedback may be especially useful to generate insight for the clinician and facilitate collaboration between patient and clinician. Furthermore, it became clear that the current feedback prototype requires explanations by a researcher or trained clinician and cannot function as a stand-alone intervention. As such, we discuss our feedback prototype as a starting point for future research and clinical implementation.
Language	English
Publishing date	2023-08-24
Publishing country	United States
Document type	Journal Article
ZDB-ID	1025319-1
ISSN	1573-3289 ; 0894-587X
ISSN (online)	1573-3289
ISSN	0894-587X
DOI	10.1007/s10488-023-01293-8
Database	MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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Article ; Online: Evolutionary perspectives on human height variation.

Stulp, Gert / Barrett, Louise

Biological reviews of the Cambridge Philosophical Society

2016 Volume 91, Issue 1, Page(s) 206–234

Abstract: Human height is a highly variable trait, both within and between populations, has a high heritability, and influences the manner in which people behave and are treated in society. Although we know much about human height, this information has rarely been ...

Abstract	Human height is a highly variable trait, both within and between populations, has a high heritability, and influences the manner in which people behave and are treated in society. Although we know much about human height, this information has rarely been brought together in a comprehensive, systematic fashion. Here, we present a synthetic review of the literature on human height from an explicit evolutionary perspective, addressing its phylogenetic history, development, and environmental and genetic influences on growth and stature. In addition to presenting evidence to suggest the past action of natural selection on human height, we also assess the evidence that natural and sexual selection continues to act on height in contemporary populations. Although there is clear evidence to suggest that selection acts on height, mainly through life-history processes but perhaps also directly, it is also apparent that methodological factors reduce the confidence with which such inferences can be drawn, and there remain surprising gaps in our knowledge. The inability to draw firm conclusions about the adaptiveness of such a highly visible and easily measured trait suggests we should show an appropriate degree of caution when dealing with other human traits in evolutionary perspective.
MeSH term(s)	Biological Evolution ; Body Size/genetics ; Body Size/physiology ; Demography ; Female ; Humans ; Male ; Selection, Genetic ; Sex Factors
Language	English
Publishing date	2016-02
Publishing country	England
Document type	Journal Article ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
ZDB-ID	1423558-4
ISSN	1469-185X ; 0006-3231 ; 1464-7931
ISSN (online)	1469-185X
ISSN	0006-3231 ; 1464-7931
DOI	10.1111/brv.12165
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Article ; Online: Wealth, fertility and adaptive behaviour in industrial populations.

Stulp, Gert / Barrett, Louise

Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences

2016 Volume 371, Issue 1692, Page(s) 20150153

Abstract: The lack of association between wealth and fertility in contemporary industrialized populations has often been used to question the value of an evolutionary perspective on human behaviour. Here, we first present the history of this debate, and the ... ...

Abstract	The lack of association between wealth and fertility in contemporary industrialized populations has often been used to question the value of an evolutionary perspective on human behaviour. Here, we first present the history of this debate, and the evolutionary explanations for why wealth and fertility (the number of children) are decoupled in modern industrial settings. We suggest that the nature of the relationship between wealth and fertility remains an open question because of the multi-faceted nature of wealth, and because existing cross-sectional studies are ambiguous with respect to how material wealth and fertility are linked. A literature review of longitudinal studies on wealth and fertility shows that the majority of these report positive effects of wealth, although levels of fertility seem to fall below those that would maximize fitness. We emphasize that reproductive decision-making reflects a complex interplay between individual and societal factors that resists simple evolutionary interpretation, and highlight the role of economic insecurity in fertility decisions. We conclude by discussing whether the wealth-fertility relationship can inform us about the adaptiveness of modern fertility behaviour, and argue against simplistic claims regarding maladaptive behaviour in humans.
MeSH term(s)	Adaptation, Psychological ; Developed Countries ; Economics ; Family Characteristics ; Fertility ; Humans ; Reproductive Behavior/psychology
Language	English
Publishing date	2016-03-29
Publishing country	England
Document type	Journal Article ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't ; Review
ZDB-ID	208382-6
ISSN	1471-2970 ; 0080-4622 ; 0264-3839 ; 0962-8436
ISSN (online)	1471-2970
ISSN	0080-4622 ; 0264-3839 ; 0962-8436
DOI	10.1098/rstb.2015.0153
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