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Article ; Online: Long term effectiveness of live herpes zoster vaccine.

Mbinta, James F / Simpson, Colin R

2023 Volume 383, Page(s) 2497

MeSH term(s)	Humans ; Herpes Zoster Vaccine ; Herpes Zoster/prevention & control ; Vaccines, Attenuated ; Vaccination
Chemical Substances	Herpes Zoster Vaccine ; Vaccines, Attenuated
Language	English
Publishing date	2023-11-08
Publishing country	England
Document type	Editorial ; Comment
ZDB-ID	1362901-3
ISSN	1756-1833 ; 0959-8154 ; 0959-8146 ; 0959-8138 ; 0959-535X ; 1759-2151
ISSN (online)	1756-1833
ISSN	0959-8154 ; 0959-8146 ; 0959-8138 ; 0959-535X ; 1759-2151
DOI	10.1136/bmj.p2497
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Article ; Online: Developing the EAVE III platform for future health crises.

Simpson, Colin R / Robertson, Chris / McMenamin, Jim / Ritchie, Lewis D / Sheikh, Aziz

The Lancet. Infectious diseases

2023 Volume 23, Issue 11, Page(s) 1223–1225

MeSH term(s)	Animals ; Humans ; Anopheles ; Insecticides
Chemical Substances	Insecticides
Language	English
Publishing date	2023-10-12
Publishing country	United States
Document type	Journal Article ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
ZDB-ID	2061641-7
ISSN	1474-4457 ; 1473-3099
ISSN (online)	1474-4457
ISSN	1473-3099
DOI	10.1016/S1473-3099(23)00626-6
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Zs.A 5743: Show issues

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Article ; Online: Publisher Correction: Development and validation of a multivariable mortality risk prediction model for COPD in primary care.

Shah, Syed A / Nwaru, Bright I / Sheikh, Aziz / Simpson, Colin R / Kotz, Daniel

NPJ primary care respiratory medicine

2022 Volume 32, Issue 1, Page(s) 22

Language	English
Publishing date	2022-06-15
Publishing country	England
Document type	Published Erratum
ZDB-ID	2780812-9
ISSN	2055-1010 ; 2055-1010
ISSN (online)	2055-1010
ISSN	2055-1010
DOI	10.1038/s41533-022-00284-w
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Article ; Online: Critical success index or F measure to validate the accuracy of administrative healthcare data identifying epilepsy in deceased adults in Scotland.

Mbizvo, Gashirai K / Simpson, Colin R / Duncan, Susan E / Chin, Richard F M / Larner, Andrew J

Epilepsy research

2023 Volume 199, Page(s) 107275

Abstract: Background: Methods to undertake diagnostic accuracy studies of administrative epilepsy data are challenged by lack of a way to reliably rank case-ascertainment algorithms in order of their accuracy. This is because it is difficult to know how to ... ...

Abstract	Background: Methods to undertake diagnostic accuracy studies of administrative epilepsy data are challenged by lack of a way to reliably rank case-ascertainment algorithms in order of their accuracy. This is because it is difficult to know how to prioritise positive predictive value (PPV) and sensitivity (Sens). Large numbers of true negative (TN) instances frequently found in epilepsy studies make it difficult to discriminate algorithm accuracy on the basis of negative predictive value (NPV) and specificity (Spec) as these become inflated (usually >90%). This study demonstrates the complementary value of using weather forecasting or machine learning metrics critical success index (CSI) or F measure, respectively, as unitary metrics combining PPV and sensitivity. We reanalyse data published in a diagnostic accuracy study of administrative epilepsy mortality data in Scotland. Method: CSI was calculated as 1/[(1/PPV) + (1/Sens) - 1]. F measure was calculated as 2.PPV.Sens/(PPV + Sens). CSI and F values range from 0 to 1, interpreted as 0 = inaccurate prediction and 1 = perfect accuracy. The published algorithms were reanalysed using these and their accuracy re-ranked according to CSI in order to allow comparison to the original rankings. Results: CSI scores were conservative (range 0.02-0.826), always less than or equal to the lower of the corresponding PPV (range 39-100%) and sensitivity (range 2-93%). F values were less conservative (range 0.039-0.905), sometimes higher than either PPV or sensitivity, but were always higher than CSI. Low CSI and F values occurred when there was a large difference between PPV and sensitivity, e.g. CSI was 0.02 and F was 0.039 in an instance when PPV was 100% and sensitivity was 2%. Algorithms with both high PPV and sensitivity performed best in terms of CSI and F measure, e.g. CSI was 0.826 and F was 0.905 in an instance when PPV was 90% and sensitivity was 91%. Conclusion: CSI or F measure can combine PPV and sensitivity values into a convenient single metric that is easier to interpret and rank in terms of diagnostic accuracy than trying to rank diagnostic accuracy according to the two measures themselves. CSI or F prioritise instances where both PPV and sensitivity are high over instances where there are large differences between PPV and sensitivity (even if one of these is very high), allowing diagnostic accuracy thresholds based on combined PPV and sensitivity to be determined. Therefore, CSI or F measures may be helpful complementary metrics to report alongside PPV and sensitivity in diagnostic accuracy studies of administrative epilepsy data.
MeSH term(s)	Adult ; Humans ; Epilepsy/diagnosis ; Predictive Value of Tests ; Delivery of Health Care ; Algorithms ; Scotland ; Sensitivity and Specificity
Language	English
Publishing date	2023-12-12
Publishing country	Netherlands
Document type	Journal Article
ZDB-ID	632939-1
ISSN	1872-6844 ; 0920-1211
ISSN (online)	1872-6844
ISSN	0920-1211
DOI	10.1016/j.eplepsyres.2023.107275
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Zs.A 2193: Show issues

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Article ; Online: Caveats in reporting of national vaccine uptake.

Millington, Tristan / Morrison, Kirsty / Jeffrey, Karen / Sullivan, Christopher / Kurdi, Amanj / Fagbamigbe, Adeniyi Francis / Swallow, Ben / Shi, Ting / Shah, Syed Ahmar / Kerr, Steven / Simpson, Colin R / Ritchie, Lewis D / Robertson, Chris / Sheikh, Aziz / Rudan, Igor

Journal of global health

2024 Volume 14, Page(s) 3006

MeSH term(s)	Humans ; Influenza Vaccines ; Influenza, Human/prevention & control
Chemical Substances	Influenza Vaccines
Language	English
Publishing date	2024-02-09
Publishing country	Scotland
Document type	Journal Article
ZDB-ID	2741629-X
ISSN	2047-2986 ; 2047-2986
ISSN (online)	2047-2986
ISSN	2047-2986
DOI	10.7189/jogh.14.03006
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Article ; Online: Primary knee arthroplasty for osteoarthritis restores patients' health-related quality of life to normal population levels.

Yapp, Liam Z / Scott, Chloe E H / MacDonald, Deborah J / Howie, Colin R / Simpson, A Hamish R W / Clement, Nick D

The bone & joint journal

2023 Volume 105-B, Issue 4, Page(s) 365–372

Abstract: This study investigates whether primary knee arthroplasty (KA) restores health-related quality of life (HRQoL) to levels expected in the general population. This retrospective case-control study compared HRQoL data from two sources: patients undergoing ... ...

Abstract	This study investigates whether primary knee arthroplasty (KA) restores health-related quality of life (HRQoL) to levels expected in the general population. This retrospective case-control study compared HRQoL data from two sources: patients undergoing primary KA in a university-teaching hospital (2013 to 2019), and the Health Survey for England (HSE; 2010 to 2012). Patient-level data from the HSE were used to represent the general population. Propensity score matching was used to balance covariates and facilitate group comparisons. A propensity score was estimated using logistic regression based upon the covariates sex, age, and BMI. Two matched cohorts with 3,029 patients each were obtained for the adjusted analyses (median age 70.3 (interquartile range (IQR) 64 to 77); number of female patients 3,233 (53.4%); median BMI 29.7 kg/m
MeSH term(s)	Humans ; Female ; Aged ; Quality of Life ; Arthroplasty, Replacement, Knee ; Retrospective Studies ; Case-Control Studies ; Osteoarthritis ; Surveys and Questionnaires
Language	English
Publishing date	2023-03-15
Publishing country	England
Document type	Journal Article
ZDB-ID	2697156-2
ISSN	2049-4408 ; 2049-4394
ISSN (online)	2049-4408
ISSN	2049-4394
DOI	10.1302/0301-620X.105B4.BJJ-2022-0659.R1
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Zs.A 6989: Show issues

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Article ; Online: Using Critical Success Index or Gilbert Skill Score as composite measures of positive predictive value and sensitivity in diagnostic accuracy studies: Weather forecasting informing epilepsy research.

Mbizvo, Gashirai K / Bennett, Kyle H / Simpson, Colin R / Duncan, Susan E / Chin, Richard F M / Larner, Andrew J

Epilepsia

2023 Volume 64, Issue 6, Page(s) 1466–1468

Abstract: The Critical Success Index (CSI) and Gilbert Skill score (GS) are verification measures that are commonly used to check the accuracy of weather forecasting. In this article, we propose that they can also be used to simplify the joint interpretation of ... ...

Abstract	The Critical Success Index (CSI) and Gilbert Skill score (GS) are verification measures that are commonly used to check the accuracy of weather forecasting. In this article, we propose that they can also be used to simplify the joint interpretation of positive predictive value (PPV) and sensitivity estimates across diagnostic accuracy studies of epilepsy data. This is because CSI and GS each provide a single measure that takes the weather forecasting equivalent of PPV and sensitivity into account. We have re-analysed data from our recent systematic review of diagnostic accuracy studies of administrative epilepsy data using CSI and GS. We summarise the results and benefits of this approach.
MeSH term(s)	Humans ; Predictive Value of Tests ; Epilepsy/diagnosis ; Forecasting ; Weather ; Sensitivity and Specificity
Language	English
Publishing date	2023-04-04
Publishing country	United States
Document type	Journal Article ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
ZDB-ID	216382-2
ISSN	1528-1167 ; 0013-9580
ISSN (online)	1528-1167
ISSN	0013-9580
DOI	10.1111/epi.17537
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Article ; Online: External validation of the QCovid 2 and 3 risk prediction algorithms for risk of COVID-19 hospitalisation and mortality in adults: a national cohort study in Scotland.

Kerr, Steven / Millington, Tristan / Rudan, Igor / McCowan, Colin / Tibble, Holly / Jeffrey, Karen / Fagbamigbe, Adeniyi Francis / Simpson, Colin R / Robertson, Chris / Hippisley-Cox, Julia / Sheikh, Aziz

BMJ open

2023 Volume 13, Issue 12, Page(s) e075958

Abstract: Objective: The QCovid 2 and 3 algorithms are risk prediction tools developed during the second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic that can be used to predict the risk of COVID-19 hospitalisation and mortality, taking vaccination status into account. In this ... ...

Abstract	Objective: The QCovid 2 and 3 algorithms are risk prediction tools developed during the second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic that can be used to predict the risk of COVID-19 hospitalisation and mortality, taking vaccination status into account. In this study, we assess their performance in Scotland. Methods: We used the Early Pandemic Evaluation and Enhanced Surveillance of COVID-19 national data platform consisting of individual-level data for the population of Scotland (5.4 million residents). Primary care data were linked to reverse-transcription PCR virology testing, hospitalisation and mortality data. We assessed the discrimination and calibration of the QCovid 2 and 3 algorithms in predicting COVID-19 hospitalisations and deaths between 8 December 2020 and 15 June 2021. Results: Our validation dataset comprised 465 058 individuals, aged 19-100. We found the following performance metrics (95% CIs) for QCovid 2 and 3: Harrell's C 0.84 (0.82 to 0.86) for hospitalisation, and 0.92 (0.90 to 0.94) for death, observed-expected ratio of 0.24 for hospitalisation and 0.26 for death (ie, both the number of hospitalisations and the number of deaths were overestimated), and a Brier score of 0.0009 (0.00084 to 0.00096) for hospitalisation and 0.00036 (0.00032 to 0.0004) for death. Conclusions: We found good discrimination of the QCovid 2 and 3 algorithms in Scotland, although performance was worse in higher age groups. Both the number of hospitalisations and the number of deaths were overestimated.
MeSH term(s)	Adult ; Humans ; COVID-19/epidemiology ; Cohort Studies ; Pandemics ; Hospitalization ; Scotland/epidemiology ; Algorithms
Language	English
Publishing date	2023-12-27
Publishing country	England
Document type	Journal Article ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
ZDB-ID	2599832-8
ISSN	2044-6055 ; 2044-6055
ISSN (online)	2044-6055
ISSN	2044-6055
DOI	10.1136/bmjopen-2023-075958
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Article ; Online: Characterising adults in Scotland who are not vaccinated against COVID-19.

Hameed, Safraj Shahul / Hall, Elliott / Grange, Zoe / Sullivan, Christopher / Kennedy, Sharon / Ritchie, Lewis D / Agrawal, Utkarsh / Simpson, Colin R / Shah, Syed Ahmar / Rudan, Igor / McCowan, Colin / Murray, Josephine L K / Robertson, Chris / Sheikh, Aziz

Lancet (London, England)

2022 Volume 400, Issue 10357, Page(s) 993–995

MeSH term(s)	Adult ; COVID-19/prevention & control ; Humans ; Scotland/epidemiology ; Vaccination
Language	English
Publishing date	2022-09-24
Publishing country	England
Document type	Letter ; Comment
ZDB-ID	3306-6
ISSN	1474-547X ; 0023-7507 ; 0140-6736
ISSN (online)	1474-547X
ISSN	0023-7507 ; 0140-6736
DOI	10.1016/S0140-6736(22)01653-1
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Article ; Online: Implications for COVID-19 vaccine uptake: A systematic review.

Adu, Peter / Poopola, Tosin / Medvedev, Oleg N / Collings, Sunny / Mbinta, James / Aspin, Clive / Simpson, Colin R

Journal of infection and public health

2023 Volume 16, Issue 3, Page(s) 441–466

Abstract: Background: Globally, increasing coronavirus disease (COVID-19) vaccination coverage remains a major public health concern in the face of high rates of COVID-19 hesitancy among the general population. We must understand the impact of the determinants of ...

Abstract	Background: Globally, increasing coronavirus disease (COVID-19) vaccination coverage remains a major public health concern in the face of high rates of COVID-19 hesitancy among the general population. We must understand the impact of the determinants of COVID-19 vaccine uptake when designing national vaccination programmes. We aimed to synthesise nationwide evidence regarding COVID-19 infodemics and the demographic, psychological, and social predictors of COVID-19 vaccination uptake. Methods: We systematically searched seven databases between July 2021 and March 2022 to retrieve relevant articles published since COVID-19 was first reported on 31 December 2019 in Wuhan, China. Of the 12,502 peer-reviewed articles retrieved from the databases, 57 met the selection criteria and were included in this systematic review. We explored COVID-19 vaccine uptake determinants before and after the first COVID-19 vaccine roll-out by the Food and Drug Authority (FDA). Results: Increased COVID-19 vaccine uptake rates were associated with decreased hesitancy. Concerns about COVID-19 vaccine safety, negative side effects, rapid development of the COVID-19 vaccine, and uncertainty about vaccine effectiveness were associated with reluctance to be vaccinated. After the US FDA approval of COVID-19 vaccines, phobia of medical procedures such as vaccine injection and inadequate information about vaccines were the main determinants of COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy. Conclusion: Addressing effectiveness and safety concerns regarding COVID-19 vaccines, as well as providing adequate information about vaccines and the impacts of pandemics, should be considered before implementation of any vaccination programme. Reassuring people about the safety of medical vaccination and using alternative procedures such as needle-free vaccination may help further increase vaccination uptake.
MeSH term(s)	Humans ; COVID-19 Vaccines ; COVID-19/prevention & control ; Vaccination ; Vaccination Coverage ; China ; Vaccines
Chemical Substances	COVID-19 Vaccines ; Vaccines
Language	English
Publishing date	2023-01-30
Publishing country	England
Document type	Systematic Review ; Journal Article ; Review
ZDB-ID	2467587-8
ISSN	1876-035X ; 1876-0341
ISSN (online)	1876-035X
ISSN	1876-0341
DOI	10.1016/j.jiph.2023.01.020
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