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Article ; Online: Real-time forecasting of COVID-19 spread according to protective behavior and vaccination: autoregressive integrated moving average models.

Cheng, Chieh / Jiang, Wei-Ming / Fan, Byron / Cheng, Yu-Chieh / Hsu, Ya-Ting / Wu, Hsiao-Yu / Chang, Hsiao-Han / Tsou, Hsiao-Hui

BMC public health

2023 Volume 23, Issue 1, Page(s) 1500

Abstract: Background: Mathematical and statistical models are used to predict trends in epidemic spread and determine the effectiveness of control measures. Automatic regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models are used for time-series forecasting, but ... ...

Abstract	Background: Mathematical and statistical models are used to predict trends in epidemic spread and determine the effectiveness of control measures. Automatic regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models are used for time-series forecasting, but only few models of the 2019 coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic have incorporated protective behaviors or vaccination, known to be effective for pandemic control. Methods: To improve the accuracy of prediction, we applied newly developed ARIMA models with predictors (mask wearing, avoiding going out, and vaccination) to forecast weekly COVID-19 case growth rates in Canada, France, Italy, and Israel between January 2021 and March 2022. The open-source data was sourced from the YouGov survey and Our World in Data. Prediction performance was evaluated using the root mean square error (RMSE) and the corrected Akaike information criterion (AICc). Results: A model with mask wearing and vaccination variables performed best for the pandemic period in which the Alpha and Delta viral variants were predominant (before November 2021). A model using only past case growth rates as autoregressive predictors performed best for the Omicron period (after December 2021). The models suggested that protective behaviors and vaccination are associated with the reduction of COVID-19 case growth rates, with booster vaccine coverage playing a particularly vital role during the Omicron period. For example, each unit increase in mask wearing and avoiding going out significantly reduced the case growth rate during the Alpha/Delta period in Canada (-0.81 and -0.54, respectively; both p < 0.05). In the Omicron period, each unit increase in the number of booster doses resulted in a significant reduction of the case growth rate in Canada (-0.03), Israel (-0.12), Italy (-0.02), and France (-0.03); all p < 0.05. Conclusions: The key findings of this study are incorporating behavior and vaccination as predictors led to accurate predictions and highlighted their significant role in controlling the pandemic. These models are easily interpretable and can be embedded in a "real-time" schedule with weekly data updates. They can support timely decision making about policies to control dynamically changing epidemics.
MeSH term(s)	Humans ; COVID-19/epidemiology ; COVID-19/prevention & control ; SARS-CoV-2 ; Models, Statistical ; Pandemics/prevention & control ; Forecasting
Language	English
Publishing date	2023-08-08
Publishing country	England
Document type	Journal Article ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
ZDB-ID	2041338-5
ISSN	1471-2458 ; 1471-2458
ISSN (online)	1471-2458
ISSN	1471-2458
DOI	10.1186/s12889-023-16419-8
Database	MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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Article ; Online: Beyond the waves: Unraveling pandemic outcomes with genomic insights and immunity analysis - Evidence from 14 countries.

Jang, Yung-An / Wu, Hsiao-Yu / Hsu, Ya-Ting / Chen, Yi-Kai / Chiou, Hung-Yi / Sytwu, Huey-Kang / Chen, Wei J / Tsou, Hsiao-Hui

Preventive medicine

2023 Volume 178, Page(s) 107820

Abstract: Objective: Although the World Health Organization and many governments have recategorized COVID-19 as a generally mild to moderately severe disease, consecutive pandemic waves driven by immune escape variants have underscored the need for timely and ... ...

Abstract	Objective: Although the World Health Organization and many governments have recategorized COVID-19 as a generally mild to moderately severe disease, consecutive pandemic waves driven by immune escape variants have underscored the need for timely and accurate prediction of the next outbreak. Nevertheless, little attention has been paid to translating genomic data and infection- and vaccine-induced immunity into direct estimates. Methods: We retrieved epidemiologic and genomic data shortly before pandemic waves across 14 developed countries from late 2021 to mid-2022 and examined associations between early-stage variant competition, infection- and vaccine-induced immunity, and the time intervals between wave peaks. We applied regression analysis and the generalized estimating equation method to construct an inferential model. Results: Each per cent increase in the proportion of a new variant was associated with a 1.0% reduction in interpeak intervals on average. Curvilinear associations between vaccine-induced immunity and outcome variables were observed, suggesting that reaching a critical vaccine distribution rate may decrease the caseload of the upcoming wave. Conclusions: By leveraging readily accessible pre-outbreak genomic and epidemiologic data, our results not only substantiate the predictive potential of early variant fractions but also propose that immunity acquired through infection alone may not sufficiently mitigate transmission. Conversely, a rapid and widespread vaccination initiative appears to be correlated with a decrease in disease incidence.
MeSH term(s)	Humans ; Pandemics ; Genomics ; COVID-19/epidemiology ; Disease Outbreaks ; Vaccines
Chemical Substances	Vaccines
Language	English
Publishing date	2023-12-11
Publishing country	United States
Document type	Journal Article
ZDB-ID	184600-0
ISSN	1096-0260 ; 0091-7435
ISSN (online)	1096-0260
ISSN	0091-7435
DOI	10.1016/j.ypmed.2023.107820
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Article ; Online: Nasogastric tube feeding versus assisted hand feeding in-home healthcare older adults with severe dementia in Taiwan: a prognosis comparison.

Chou, Hsiao-Hui / Tsou, Meng-Ting / Hwang, Lee-Ching

BMC geriatrics

2020 Volume 20, Issue 1, Page(s) 60

Abstract: Background: All individuals with severe dementia should be offered careful hand feeding. However, under certain circumstances, people with severe dementia have a feeding tube placed. In Taiwan, tube feeding rate in demented older home care residents is ... ...

Abstract	Background: All individuals with severe dementia should be offered careful hand feeding. However, under certain circumstances, people with severe dementia have a feeding tube placed. In Taiwan, tube feeding rate in demented older home care residents is increasing; however, the benefits of tube feeding in this population remain unknown. We compared the clinical prognosis and mortality of older patients with severe dementia receiving nasogastric tube feeding (NGF) or assisted hand feeding (AHF). Methods: Data from the in-home healthcare system between January 1 and December 31, 2017 were analyzed to identify 169 participants over 60 years of age in this retrospective longitudinal study. All subjects with severe dementia and complete functional dependence suffered from difficulty in oral intake and required either AHF or NGF. Data were collected from both groups to analyze pneumonia, hospitalization, and mortality rates. Results: A total of 169 subjects (56 males and 113 females, aged 85.9 ± 7.5 years) were analyzed. 39 required AHF and 130 NGF. All subjects were bedridden; 129 (76%) showed Barthel index < 10. Pneumonia risk was higher in the NGF group (48%) than in the AHF group (26%, p = 0.015). After adjusting for multiple factors in the regression model, the risk of pneumonia was not significantly higher in the NGF group compared with the AHF group. One-year mortality rates in the AHF and NGF groups were 8 and 15%, respectively, and no significant difference was observed after adjustment with logistic regression (aOR = 2.38; 95% CI, 0.58-9.70). There were no significant differences in hospitalization rate and duration. Conclusions: For older patients with dementia requiring in-home healthcare, NGF is not associated with a significantly lower risk of pneumonia than AHF. Additionally, neither mortality nor hospitalization rates decreased with NGF. On the contrary, a nonsignificant trend of increased risk of pneumonia was observed in NGF group. Therefore, the benefits of NGF are debatable in older patients with severe dementia requiring in-home healthcare. Continued careful hand feeding could be an alternative to NG feeding in patients with severe dementia. Furthermore, large-scale studies on in-home healthcare would be required to support these results.
MeSH term(s)	Aged ; Aged, 80 and over ; Dementia/diagnosis ; Dementia/mortality ; Dementia/therapy ; Enteral Nutrition/methods ; Enteral Nutrition/mortality ; Feeding Methods/mortality ; Feeding Methods/statistics & numerical data ; Female ; Home Care Services ; Humans ; Intubation, Gastrointestinal/methods ; Intubation, Gastrointestinal/mortality ; Longitudinal Studies ; Male ; Middle Aged ; Nursing Homes ; Prognosis ; Retrospective Studies ; Severity of Illness Index ; Taiwan/epidemiology
Language	English
Publishing date	2020-02-14
Publishing country	England
Document type	Comparative Study ; Journal Article
ZDB-ID	2059865-8
ISSN	1471-2318 ; 1471-2318
ISSN (online)	1471-2318
ISSN	1471-2318
DOI	10.1186/s12877-020-1464-9
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Article ; Online: Interregional mobility in different age groups is associated with COVID-19 transmission in the Taipei metropolitan area, Taiwan.

Jiang, Wei-Ming / Wen, Tzai-Hung / Huang, Ying-Chi / Chiou, Hung-Yi / Chen, Wei J / Hsiung, Chao A / Sytwu, Huey-Kang / Tsou, Hsiao-Hui

Scientific reports

2023 Volume 13, Issue 1, Page(s) 17285

Abstract: Before vaccines were introduced, mobility restriction was one of the primary control measures in the early stage of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Because different age groups face disproportionate health risks, differences in their ... ...

Abstract	Before vaccines were introduced, mobility restriction was one of the primary control measures in the early stage of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Because different age groups face disproportionate health risks, differences in their mobility changes affect the effectiveness of pandemic control measures. This study aimed to investigate the relationship between multiscale mobility patterns in different age groups and COVID-19 transmission before and after control measures implementation. Data on daily confirmed case numbers, anonymized mobile phone data, and 38 socioeconomic factors were used to construct negative binomial regression models of these relationships in the Taipei metropolitan area in May 2021. To avoid overfitting, the socioeconomic factor dimensions were reduced by principal component analysis. The results showed that inter-district mobility was a greater promoter of COVID-19 transmission than was intra-district mobility (coefficients: pre-alert, 0.52 and 0.43; post-alert, 0.41 and 0.36, respectively). Moreover, both the inter-district mobility of people aged 15-59 and ≥ 60 years were significantly related to the number of confirmed cases (coefficients: pre-alert, 0.82 and 1.05; post-alert, 0.48 and 0.66, respectively). The results can help agencies worldwide formulate public health responses to emerging infectious diseases.
MeSH term(s)	Humans ; COVID-19/epidemiology ; Taiwan/epidemiology ; Public Health ; Socioeconomic Factors ; Pandemics
Language	English
Publishing date	2023-10-12
Publishing country	England
Document type	Journal Article ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
ZDB-ID	2615211-3
ISSN	2045-2322 ; 2045-2322
ISSN (online)	2045-2322
ISSN	2045-2322
DOI	10.1038/s41598-023-44474-z
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Article ; Online: Screening and identification of emodin as an EBV DNase inhibitor to prevent its biological functions.

Wu, Chung-Chun / Chen, Mei-Shu / Lee, Ting-Ying / Cheng, Yu-Jhen / Tsou, Hsiao-Hui / Huang, Tze-Sing / Cho, Der-Yang / Chen, Jen-Yang

Virology journal

2023 Volume 20, Issue 1, Page(s) 148

Abstract: Background: The Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) is a prevalent oncovirus associated with a variety of human illnesses. BGLF5, an EBV DNase with alkaline nuclease (AN) activity, plays important roles in the viral life cycle and progression of human malignancies ...

Abstract	Background: The Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) is a prevalent oncovirus associated with a variety of human illnesses. BGLF5, an EBV DNase with alkaline nuclease (AN) activity, plays important roles in the viral life cycle and progression of human malignancies and has been suggested as a possible diagnostic marker and target for cancer therapy. Methods used conventionally for the detection of AN activity, radioactivity-based nuclease activity assay and DNA digestion detection by gel electrophoresis, are not suitable for screening AN inhibitors; the former approach is unsafe, and the latter is complicated. In the present study, a fluorescence-based nuclease activity assay was used to screen several natural compounds and identify an EBV DNase inhibitor. Results: Fluorescence-based nuclease activity assays, in which the DNA substrate is labelled with PicoGreen dye, are cheaper, safer, and easier to perform. Herein, the results of the fluorescence-based nuclease activity assay were consistent with the results of the two conventional methods. In addition, the PicoGreen-labelling method was applied for the biochemical characterisation of viral nucleases. Using this approach, we explored EBV DNase inhibitors. After several rounds of screening, emodin, an anthraquinone derivative, was found to possess significant anti-EBV DNase activity. We verified the efficacy of emodin using the conventional DNA-cleavage assay. Furthermore, using comet assay and micronucleus formation detection, we confirmed that emodin can inhibit DNase-induced DNA damage and genomic instability. Additionally, emodin treatment inhibited EBV production. Conclusions: Using a PicoGreen-mediated nuclease activity assay, we successfully demonstrated that emodin has the potential to inhibit EBV DNase nuclease activity. Emodin also inhibits EBV DNase-related biological functions, suggesting that it is a potential inhibitor of EBV DNase.
MeSH term(s)	Humans ; Emodin/pharmacology ; Herpesvirus 4, Human/genetics ; Epstein-Barr Virus Infections ; DNA ; Deoxyribonucleases/chemistry ; Deoxyribonucleases/genetics
Chemical Substances	Emodin (KA46RNI6HN) ; PicoGreen ; DNA (9007-49-2) ; Deoxyribonucleases (EC 3.1.-)
Language	English
Publishing date	2023-07-13
Publishing country	England
Document type	Journal Article
ZDB-ID	2160640-7
ISSN	1743-422X ; 1743-422X
ISSN (online)	1743-422X
ISSN	1743-422X
DOI	10.1186/s12985-023-02107-x
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Article ; Online: Internet searches for "insomnia" and "suicide" mediated by stay-at-home behaviors in 45 countries during the first 12 months of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Lin, Sheng-Hsuan / Lan, Yu-Tung / Hsia, Pei-Hsuan / Kao, Chu-Lan Michael / Tsou, Hsiao-Hui / Lin, Yu-Hsuan

Journal of affective disorders

2023 Volume 325, Page(s) 119–126

Abstract: Background: This study aimed to investigate (1) the mental health impacts (i.e., insomnia and suicide ideas) of the COVID-19 pandemic and (2) the mediation effects of stay-at-home levels on those impacts.: Methods: This study investigated monthly ... ...

Abstract	Background: This study aimed to investigate (1) the mental health impacts (i.e., insomnia and suicide ideas) of the COVID-19 pandemic and (2) the mediation effects of stay-at-home levels on those impacts. Methods: This study investigated monthly national COVID-19 deaths, stay-at-home levels, and internet searches for words for "insomnia" and "suicide" across 45 countries during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic (March 1, 2020, to February 28, 2021). We used the changes of internet search volumes for "insomnia" and "suicide" (from the Google Trends database) to represent the mental health impacts, and the time of cell phone activity at the residence (from Google Location History) to estimate the stay-at-home effects. We computed the proportion mediated (PM) caused by stay-at-home levels in the COVID-19 impacts on insomnia and suicide ideas, respectively. Results: Throughout the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic, national COVID-19 deaths significantly correlated to increased internet searches for "insomnia" but decreased searches for "suicide". In addition, the mediation effect was significant in the first six-month of COVID-19-related increases in insomnia (PM = 42.6 %, p = 0.016), but this effect was not significant (PM = 13.1 %, p = 0.270) in the second six-month. By contrast, the mediation effect was not significant in the first six-month of COVID-19-related decrease in suicide ideation (PM = 8.1 %, p = 0.180), but this effect was significant (PM = 39.6 %, p = 0.014) in the second six-month. Conclusions: Stay-at-home levels significantly mediated both increased insomnia and decreased suicide ideas, but within different time frames.
MeSH term(s)	Humans ; COVID-19 ; Pandemics ; Sleep Initiation and Maintenance Disorders/epidemiology ; Mental Health ; Suicidal Ideation ; Internet
Language	English
Publishing date	2023-01-06
Publishing country	Netherlands
Document type	Journal Article ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
ZDB-ID	135449-8
ISSN	1573-2517 ; 0165-0327
ISSN (online)	1573-2517
ISSN	0165-0327
DOI	10.1016/j.jad.2022.12.139
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Article ; Online: Real-time forecasting of COVID-19 spread according to protective behavior and vaccination

Chieh Cheng / Wei-Ming Jiang / Byron Fan / Yu-Chieh Cheng / Ya-Ting Hsu / Hsiao-Yu Wu / Hsiao-Han Chang / Hsiao-Hui Tsou

BMC Public Health, Vol 23, Iss 1, Pp 1-

autoregressive integrated moving average models

2023 Volume 13

Abstract: Abstract Background Mathematical and statistical models are used to predict trends in epidemic spread and determine the effectiveness of control measures. Automatic regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models are used for time-series forecasting, ...

Abstract	Abstract Background Mathematical and statistical models are used to predict trends in epidemic spread and determine the effectiveness of control measures. Automatic regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models are used for time-series forecasting, but only few models of the 2019 coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic have incorporated protective behaviors or vaccination, known to be effective for pandemic control. Methods To improve the accuracy of prediction, we applied newly developed ARIMA models with predictors (mask wearing, avoiding going out, and vaccination) to forecast weekly COVID-19 case growth rates in Canada, France, Italy, and Israel between January 2021 and March 2022. The open-source data was sourced from the YouGov survey and Our World in Data. Prediction performance was evaluated using the root mean square error (RMSE) and the corrected Akaike information criterion (AICc). Results A model with mask wearing and vaccination variables performed best for the pandemic period in which the Alpha and Delta viral variants were predominant (before November 2021). A model using only past case growth rates as autoregressive predictors performed best for the Omicron period (after December 2021). The models suggested that protective behaviors and vaccination are associated with the reduction of COVID-19 case growth rates, with booster vaccine coverage playing a particularly vital role during the Omicron period. For example, each unit increase in mask wearing and avoiding going out significantly reduced the case growth rate during the Alpha/Delta period in Canada (–0.81 and –0.54, respectively; both p < 0.05). In the Omicron period, each unit increase in the number of booster doses resulted in a significant reduction of the case growth rate in Canada (–0.03), Israel (–0.12), Italy (–0.02), and France (–0.03); all p < 0.05. Conclusions The key findings of this study are incorporating behavior and vaccination as predictors led to accurate predictions and highlighted their significant role in ...
Keywords	COVID-19 ; Forecasting ; regARIMA ; Vaccines ; Nonpharmaceutical intervention ; Public aspects of medicine ; RA1-1270
Subject code	330
Language	English
Publishing date	2023-08-01T00:00:00Z
Publisher	BMC
Document type	Article ; Online
Database	BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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Article ; Online: Suppression of the alpha, delta, and omicron variants of SARS-Cov-2 in Taiwan.

Tsou, Hsiao-Hui / Lee, Fang-Jing / Wu, Shiow-Ing / Fan, Byron / Wu, Hsiao-Yu / Lin, Yu-Hsuan / Hsu, Ya-Ting / Cheng, Chieh / Cheng, Yu-Chieh / Jiang, Wei-Ming / Chiou, Hung-Yi / Chen, Wei J / Hsiung, Chao A / Chen, Pau-Chung / Sytwu, Huey-Kang

PloS one

2024 Volume 19, Issue 3, Page(s) e0300303

Abstract: Background: Taiwan was a coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outlier, with an extraordinarily long transmission-free record: 253 days without locally transmitted infections while the rest of the world battled wave after wave of infection. The appearance ...

Abstract	Background: Taiwan was a coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outlier, with an extraordinarily long transmission-free record: 253 days without locally transmitted infections while the rest of the world battled wave after wave of infection. The appearance of the alpha variant in May 2021, closely followed by the delta variant, disrupted this transmission-free streak. However, despite low vaccination coverage (<1%), outbreaks were well-controlled. Methods: This study analyzed the time to border closure and conducted one-sample t test to compare between Taiwan and Non-Taiwan countries prior to vaccine introduction. The study also collected case data to observe the dynamics of omicron transmission. Time-varying reproduction number,Rt, was calculated and was used to reflect infection impact at specified time points and model trends of future incidence. Results: The study analyzed and compare the time to border closure in Taiwan and non-Taiwan countries. The mean times to any border closure from the first domestic case within each country were -21 and 5.98 days, respectively (P < .0001). The Taiwanese government invested in quick and effective contact tracing with a precise quarantine strategy in lieu of a strict lockdown. Residents followed recommendations based on self-discipline and unity. The self-discipline in action is evidenced in Google mobility reports. The central and local governments worked together to enact non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), including universal masking, social distancing, limited unnecessary gatherings, systematic contact tracing, and enhanced quarantine measures. The people cooperated actively with pandemic-prevention regulations, including vaccination and preventive NPIs. Conclusions: This article describes four key factors underlying Taiwan's success in controlling COVID-19 transmission: quick responses; effective control measures with new technologies and rolling knowledge updates; unity and cooperation among Taiwanese government agencies, private companies and organizations, and individual citizens; and Taiwanese self-discipline.
MeSH term(s)	Humans ; SARS-CoV-2/genetics ; COVID-19/epidemiology ; COVID-19/prevention & control ; Communicable Disease Control ; Taiwan/epidemiology
Language	English
Publishing date	2024-03-18
Publishing country	United States
Document type	Journal Article
ZDB-ID	2267670-3
ISSN	1932-6203 ; 1932-6203
ISSN (online)	1932-6203
ISSN	1932-6203
DOI	10.1371/journal.pone.0300303
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Article ; Online: Interregional mobility in different age groups is associated with COVID-19 transmission in the Taipei metropolitan area, Taiwan

Wei-Ming Jiang / Tzai-Hung Wen / Ying-Chi Huang / Hung-Yi Chiou / Wei J. Chen / Chao A. Hsiung / Huey-Kang Sytwu / Hsiao-Hui Tsou

Scientific Reports, Vol 13, Iss 1, Pp 1-

2023 Volume 13

Abstract: Abstract Before vaccines were introduced, mobility restriction was one of the primary control measures in the early stage of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Because different age groups face disproportionate health risks, differences in ...

Abstract	Abstract Before vaccines were introduced, mobility restriction was one of the primary control measures in the early stage of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Because different age groups face disproportionate health risks, differences in their mobility changes affect the effectiveness of pandemic control measures. This study aimed to investigate the relationship between multiscale mobility patterns in different age groups and COVID-19 transmission before and after control measures implementation. Data on daily confirmed case numbers, anonymized mobile phone data, and 38 socioeconomic factors were used to construct negative binomial regression models of these relationships in the Taipei metropolitan area in May 2021. To avoid overfitting, the socioeconomic factor dimensions were reduced by principal component analysis. The results showed that inter-district mobility was a greater promoter of COVID-19 transmission than was intra-district mobility (coefficients: pre-alert, 0.52 and 0.43; post-alert, 0.41 and 0.36, respectively). Moreover, both the inter-district mobility of people aged 15–59 and ≥ 60 years were significantly related to the number of confirmed cases (coefficients: pre-alert, 0.82 and 1.05; post-alert, 0.48 and 0.66, respectively). The results can help agencies worldwide formulate public health responses to emerging infectious diseases.
Keywords	Medicine ; R ; Science ; Q
Language	English
Publishing date	2023-10-01T00:00:00Z
Publisher	Nature Portfolio
Document type	Article ; Online
Database	BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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Article: Discrimination of Methicillin-resistant

Kong, Po-Hsin / Chiang, Cheng-Hsiung / Lin, Ting-Chia / Kuo, Shu-Chen / Li, Chien-Feng / Hsiung, Chao A / Shiue, Yow-Ling / Chiou, Hung-Yi / Wu, Li-Ching / Tsou, Hsiao-Hui

Pathogens (Basel, Switzerland)

2022 Volume 11, Issue 5

Abstract: Early administration of proper antibiotics is considered to improve the clinical outcomes ... ...

Abstract	Early administration of proper antibiotics is considered to improve the clinical outcomes of
Language	English
Publishing date	2022-05-16
Publishing country	Switzerland
Document type	Journal Article
ZDB-ID	2695572-6
ISSN	2076-0817
ISSN	2076-0817
DOI	10.3390/pathogens11050586
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