Article ; Online: A novel benchmark for COVID-19 pandemic testing effectiveness enables the accurate prediction of new Intensive Care Unit admissions.
2021 Volume 11, Issue 1, Page(s) 20308
Abstract: The positivity rate of testing is currently used both as a benchmark of testing adequacy and for assessing the evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic. However, since the former is a prerequisite for the latter, its interpretation is often conflicting. We ... ...
Abstract | The positivity rate of testing is currently used both as a benchmark of testing adequacy and for assessing the evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic. However, since the former is a prerequisite for the latter, its interpretation is often conflicting. We propose as a benchmark for COVID-19 testing effectiveness a new metric, termed 'Severity Detection Rate' (SDR), that represents the daily needs for new Intensive Care Unit (ICU) admissions, per 100 cases detected (t - i) days ago, per 10,000 tests performed (t - i) days ago. Based on the announced COVID-19 monitoring data in Greece from May 2020 until August 2021, we show that beyond a certain threshold of daily tests, SDR reaches a plateau of very low variability that begins to reflect testing adequacy. Due to the stabilization of SDR, it was possible to predict with great accuracy the daily needs for new ICU admissions, 12 days ahead of each testing data point, over a period of 10 months, with Pearson r = 0.98 (p = 10 |
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MeSH term(s) | Benchmarking/methods ; COVID-19/epidemiology ; COVID-19/immunology ; COVID-19/metabolism ; COVID-19 Testing/methods ; COVID-19 Testing/trends ; Greece/epidemiology ; Humans ; Intensive Care Units/trends ; Models, Theoretical ; Pandemics/prevention & control ; Patient Admission/trends ; SARS-CoV-2/immunology ; SARS-CoV-2/pathogenicity |
Language | English |
Publishing date | 2021-10-13 |
Publishing country | England |
Document type | Journal Article |
ZDB-ID | 2615211-3 |
ISSN | 2045-2322 ; 2045-2322 |
ISSN (online) | 2045-2322 |
ISSN | 2045-2322 |
DOI | 10.1038/s41598-021-99543-y |
Database | MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE |
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