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  1. Article ; Online: Operational priorities for engaging with India's private healthcare sector for the control of tuberculosis: a modelling study.

    Ricks, Saskia / Singh, Ananya / Sodhi, Ridhima / Pal, Arnab / Arinaminpathy, Nimalan

    BMJ open

    2024  Volume 14, Issue 3, Page(s) e069304

    Abstract: Objectives: To estimate the potential impact of expanding services offered by the Joint Effort for Elimination of Tuberculosis (JEET), the largest private sector engagement initiative for tuberculosis (TB) in India.: Design: We developed a ... ...

    Abstract Objectives: To estimate the potential impact of expanding services offered by the Joint Effort for Elimination of Tuberculosis (JEET), the largest private sector engagement initiative for tuberculosis (TB) in India.
    Design: We developed a mathematical model of TB transmission dynamics, coupled with a cost model.
    Setting: Ahmedabad and New Delhi, two cities with contrasting levels of JEET coverage.
    Participants: Estimated patients with TB in Ahmedabad and New Delhi.
    Interventions: We investigated the epidemiological impact of expanding three different public-private support agency (PPSA) services: provider recruitment, uptake of cartridge-based nucleic acid amplification tests and uptake of adherence support mechanisms (specifically government supplied fixed-dose combination drugs), all compared with a continuation of current TB services.
    Results: Our results suggest that in Delhi, increasing the use of adherence support mechanisms among private providers should be prioritised, having the lowest incremental cost-per-case-averted between 2020 and 2035 of US$170 000 (US$110 000-US$310 000). Likewise in Ahmedabad, increasing provider recruitment should be prioritised, having the lowest incremental cost-per-case averted of US$18 000 (US$12 000-US$29 000).
    Conclusion: Results illustrate how intervention priorities may vary in different settings across India, depending on local conditions, and the existing degree of uptake of PPSA services. Modelling can be a useful tool for identifying these priorities for any given setting.
    MeSH term(s) Humans ; Private Sector ; Health Care Sector ; Tuberculosis/prevention & control ; Delivery of Health Care ; Cities ; India
    Language English
    Publishing date 2024-03-19
    Publishing country England
    Document type Journal Article
    ZDB-ID 2599832-8
    ISSN 2044-6055 ; 2044-6055
    ISSN (online) 2044-6055
    ISSN 2044-6055
    DOI 10.1136/bmjopen-2022-069304
    Database MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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  2. Article ; Online: Exploring the Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Tuberculosis Care and Prevention.

    Sahu, Suvanand / Wandwalo, Eliud / Arinaminpathy, Nimalan

    Journal of the Pediatric Infectious Diseases Society

    2022  Volume 11, Issue Supplement_3, Page(s) S67–S71

    Abstract: The COVID-19 pandemic has set back the global tuberculosis (TB) response by several years. In 2020, access to TB prevention and care declined sharply, with TB notifications dropping by 18% compared to 2019. Declines were more pronounced in children, with ...

    Abstract The COVID-19 pandemic has set back the global tuberculosis (TB) response by several years. In 2020, access to TB prevention and care declined sharply, with TB notifications dropping by 18% compared to 2019. Declines were more pronounced in children, with a 24% drop in 0-14 year-olds and a 28% drop in 0-4 year-olds. As a result, in 2020 the number of deaths due to TB increased to 1.5 million across all ages, reversing a decade-long declining trend. Progress toward the UN High Level Meeting targets for 2022 is at risk, including the targets related to children for TB and drug-resistant TB treatments, and TB preventive therapy. Nonetheless, ending TB by 2030 as envisaged in the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) is still possible, but requires increased investments in accelerated case detection, subclinical TB, preventive therapy and an effective vaccine. Investing in TB could prepare the world better for fighting a future airborne pandemic.
    MeSH term(s) Child ; Humans ; Pandemics/prevention & control ; COVID-19 ; Tuberculosis/drug therapy ; Tuberculosis/epidemiology ; Tuberculosis/prevention & control ; Tuberculosis, Multidrug-Resistant/drug therapy
    Language English
    Publishing date 2022-10-31
    Publishing country England
    Document type Journal Article
    ZDB-ID 2668791-4
    ISSN 2048-7207 ; 2048-7193
    ISSN (online) 2048-7207
    ISSN 2048-7193
    DOI 10.1093/jpids/piac102
    Database MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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  3. Article ; Online: Responsible travel to and within India during the COVID-19 pandemic.

    Mandal, Sandip / Arinaminpathy, Nimalan / Bhargava, Balram / Panda, Samiran

    Journal of travel medicine

    2021  Volume 28, Issue 8

    MeSH term(s) COVID-19 ; Humans ; India/epidemiology ; Pandemics/prevention & control ; SARS-CoV-2 ; Travel
    Language English
    Publishing date 2021-09-16
    Publishing country England
    Document type Journal Article
    ZDB-ID 1212504-0
    ISSN 1708-8305 ; 1195-1982
    ISSN (online) 1708-8305
    ISSN 1195-1982
    DOI 10.1093/jtm/taab147
    Database MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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  4. Article ; Online: Modelling tuberculosis control priorities: more of the same will not do - Authors' reply.

    Vesga, Juan F / Arinaminpathy, Nimalan

    The Lancet. Global health

    2019  Volume 7, Issue 10, Page(s) e1320

    MeSH term(s) Humans ; Tuberculosis
    Language English
    Publishing date 2019-09-20
    Publishing country England
    Document type Letter ; Comment
    ZDB-ID 2723488-5
    ISSN 2214-109X ; 2214-109X
    ISSN (online) 2214-109X
    ISSN 2214-109X
    DOI 10.1016/S2214-109X(19)30283-9
    Database MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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  5. Article ; Online: fastlin: an ultra-fast program for Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex lineage typing.

    Derelle, Romain / Lees, John / Phelan, Jody / Lalvani, Ajit / Arinaminpathy, Nimalan / Chindelevitch, Leonid

    Bioinformatics (Oxford, England)

    2023  Volume 39, Issue 11

    Abstract: Summary: Fastlin is a bioinformatics tool designed for rapid Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex (MTBC) lineage typing. It utilizes an ultra-fast alignment-free approach to detect previously identified barcode single nucleotide polymorphisms associated ... ...

    Abstract Summary: Fastlin is a bioinformatics tool designed for rapid Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex (MTBC) lineage typing. It utilizes an ultra-fast alignment-free approach to detect previously identified barcode single nucleotide polymorphisms associated with specific MTBC lineages. In a comprehensive benchmarking against existing tools, fastlin demonstrated high accuracy and significantly faster running times.
    Availability and implementation: fastlin is freely available at https://github.com/rderelle/fastlin and can easily be installed using Conda.
    MeSH term(s) Mycobacterium tuberculosis/genetics ; Computational Biology ; Polymorphism, Single Nucleotide ; Software
    Language English
    Publishing date 2023-11-09
    Publishing country England
    Document type Journal Article ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
    ZDB-ID 1422668-6
    ISSN 1367-4811 ; 1367-4803
    ISSN (online) 1367-4811
    ISSN 1367-4803
    DOI 10.1093/bioinformatics/btad648
    Database MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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  6. Article ; Online: Responsive and agile vaccination strategies against COVID-19 in India.

    Mandal, Sandip / Arinaminpathy, Nimalan / Bhargava, Balram / Panda, Samiran

    The Lancet. Global health

    2021  Volume 9, Issue 9, Page(s) e1197–e1200

    MeSH term(s) COVID-19/epidemiology ; COVID-19/prevention & control ; COVID-19 Vaccines/administration & dosage ; Humans ; India/epidemiology ; Vaccination/methods
    Chemical Substances COVID-19 Vaccines
    Language English
    Publishing date 2021-07-01
    Publishing country England
    Document type Journal Article ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
    ZDB-ID 2723488-5
    ISSN 2214-109X ; 2214-109X
    ISSN (online) 2214-109X
    ISSN 2214-109X
    DOI 10.1016/S2214-109X(21)00284-9
    Database MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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  7. Article ; Online: Using real-time data to guide decision-making during an influenza pandemic: A modelling analysis.

    Haw, David J / Biggerstaff, Matthew / Prasad, Pragati / Walker, Joseph / Grenfell, Bryan / Arinaminpathy, Nimalan

    PLoS computational biology

    2023  Volume 19, Issue 2, Page(s) e1010893

    Abstract: Influenza pandemics typically occur in multiple waves of infection, often associated with initial emergence of a novel virus, followed (in temperate regions) by a resurgence accompanying the onset of the annual influenza season. Here, we examined whether ...

    Abstract Influenza pandemics typically occur in multiple waves of infection, often associated with initial emergence of a novel virus, followed (in temperate regions) by a resurgence accompanying the onset of the annual influenza season. Here, we examined whether data collected from an initial pandemic wave could be informative, for the need to implement non-pharmaceutical measures in any resurgent wave. Drawing from the 2009 H1N1 pandemic in 10 states in the USA, we calibrated simple mathematical models of influenza transmission dynamics to data for laboratory confirmed hospitalisations during the initial 'spring' wave. We then projected pandemic outcomes (cumulative hospitalisations) during the fall wave, and compared these projections with data. Model results showed reasonable agreement for all states that reported a substantial number of cases in the spring wave. Using this model we propose a probabilistic decision framework that can be used to determine the need for preemptive measures such as postponing school openings, in advance of a fall wave. This work illustrates how model-based evidence synthesis, in real-time during an early pandemic wave, could be used to inform timely decisions for pandemic response.
    MeSH term(s) Humans ; Influenza, Human ; Influenza A Virus, H1N1 Subtype ; Seasons ; Hospitalization ; Schools
    Language English
    Publishing date 2023-02-27
    Publishing country United States
    Document type Journal Article ; Research Support, U.S. Gov't, P.H.S.
    ZDB-ID 2193340-6
    ISSN 1553-7358 ; 1553-734X
    ISSN (online) 1553-7358
    ISSN 1553-734X
    DOI 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1010893
    Database MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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  8. Article ; Online: A global system for the next generation of vaccines.

    Arinaminpathy, Nimalan / Saad-Roy, Chadi M / Yang, Qiqi / Ahmad, Isa / Yadav, Prashant / Grenfell, Bryan

    Science (New York, N.Y.)

    2022  Volume 376, Issue 6592, Page(s) 462–464

    Abstract: COVID-19 has shown that hurdles can be overcome. ...

    Abstract COVID-19 has shown that hurdles can be overcome.
    MeSH term(s) COVID-19/prevention & control ; Humans ; Vaccines
    Chemical Substances Vaccines
    Language English
    Publishing date 2022-04-28
    Publishing country United States
    Document type Letter ; Comment
    ZDB-ID 128410-1
    ISSN 1095-9203 ; 0036-8075
    ISSN (online) 1095-9203
    ISSN 0036-8075
    DOI 10.1126/science.abm8894
    Database MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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  9. Article ; Online: Meeting the 2030 END TB goals in the wake of COVID-19: A modelling study of countries in the USAID TB portfolio.

    Arinaminpathy, Nimalan / Mukadi, Ya Diul / Bloom, Amy / Vincent, Cheri / Ahmedov, Sevim

    PLOS global public health

    2023  Volume 3, Issue 10, Page(s) e0001271

    Abstract: Progress towards the 2030 End TB goals has seen severe setbacks due to disruptions arising from the COVID-19 pandemic. For governments and international partner organizations supporting the global TB response, there is a need to assess what level of ... ...

    Abstract Progress towards the 2030 End TB goals has seen severe setbacks due to disruptions arising from the COVID-19 pandemic. For governments and international partner organizations supporting the global TB response, there is a need to assess what level of effort is now needed to reach these goals. Using mathematical modelling, we addressed this question for the countries being supported by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID). We aggregated the 24 countries in the USAID portfolio into three geographical country groups: South Asia; sub-Saharan Africa; and Central Asian Republics/Europe (CAR/EU). From 2023 onwards we modelled a combination of interventions acting at different stages of the care cascade, including improved diagnostics; reducing the patient care seeking delay; and the rollout of a disease-preventing vaccine from 2025 onwards. We found that in all three country groups, meeting the End TB goals by 2030 will require a combination of interventions acting at stages of the TB care cascade. Specific priorities may depend on country settings, for example with public-private mix playing an important role in countries in South Asia and elsewhere. When a vaccine becomes available, its required coverage to meet the 2030 goals will vary by setting, depending on the amount of preventive therapy that has already been implemented. Monitoring the number-needed-to-test to identify 1 person with TB in community settings can provide a useful measure of progress towards the End TB goals.
    Language English
    Publishing date 2023-10-23
    Publishing country United States
    Document type Journal Article
    ISSN 2767-3375
    ISSN (online) 2767-3375
    DOI 10.1371/journal.pgph.0001271
    Database MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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  10. Article: The potential impact of vaccination on tuberculosis burden in India: A modelling analysis.

    Arinaminpathy, Nimalan / Rade, Kirankumar / Kumar, Ravinder / Joshi, Rajendra P / Rao, Raghuram

    The Indian journal of medical research

    2023  Volume 157, Issue 2&3, Page(s) 119–126

    Abstract: Background & objectives: Vaccination will play an important role in meeting the end tuberculosis (TB) goals. While certain vaccine candidates in advanced stages of clinical trials raise hope for the future availability of new tools, in the immediate ... ...

    Abstract Background & objectives: Vaccination will play an important role in meeting the end tuberculosis (TB) goals. While certain vaccine candidates in advanced stages of clinical trials raise hope for the future availability of new tools, in the immediate term, there is also increasing interest in Bacille Calmette-Guérin revaccination among adults and adolescents as a potential strategy. Here, we sought to estimate the potential epidemiological impact of TB vaccination in India.
    Methods: We developed a deterministic, age-structured, compartmental model of TB in India. Data from the recent national prevalence survey was used to inform epidemiological burden while also incorporating a vulnerable population who may be prioritized for vaccination, the latter consistent with the burden of undernutrition. Using this framework, the potential impact on incidence and mortality of a vaccine with 50 per cent efficacy was estimated, if rolled out in 2023 to cover 50 per cent of the unvaccinated each year. Simulated impacts were compared for disease- vs. infection-preventing vaccines, as well as when prioritizing vulnerable groups (those with undernutrition) rather than the general population. A sensitivity analyses were also conducted with respect to the duration, and efficacy, of vaccine immunity.
    Results: When rolled out in the general population, an infection-preventing vaccine would avert 12 per cent (95% Bayesian credible intervals (Crl): 4.3-28%) of cumulative TB incidence between 2023 and 2030, while a disease-preventing vaccine would avert 29 per cent (95% Crl: 24-34%). Although the vulnerable population accounts for only around 16 per cent of India's population, prioritizing this group for vaccination would achieve almost half the impact of rollout in the general population, in the example of an infection-preventing vaccine. Sensitivity analysis also highlights the importance of the duration and efficacy of vaccine-induced immunity.
    Interpretation & conclusions: These results highlight how even a vaccine with moderate effectiveness (50%) could achieve substantial reductions in TB burden in India, especially when prioritized for the most vulnerable.
    MeSH term(s) Adult ; Adolescent ; Humans ; Bayes Theorem ; Tuberculosis/epidemiology ; Tuberculosis/prevention & control ; Tuberculosis/drug therapy ; Vaccination ; BCG Vaccine/therapeutic use ; India/epidemiology
    Chemical Substances BCG Vaccine
    Language English
    Publishing date 2023-05-18
    Publishing country India
    Document type Journal Article
    ZDB-ID 390883-5
    ISSN 0971-5916 ; 0019-5340
    ISSN 0971-5916 ; 0019-5340
    DOI 10.4103/ijmr.ijmr_328_23
    Database MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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