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  1. Article ; Online: The value of early transmission dynamic studies in emerging infectious diseases.

    McBryde, Emma

    The Lancet. Infectious diseases

    2020  Volume 20, Issue 5, Page(s) 512–513

    MeSH term(s) Betacoronavirus ; COVID-19 ; Communicable Diseases, Emerging ; Coronavirus Infections ; Humans ; Models, Theoretical ; Pandemics ; Pneumonia, Viral ; SARS-CoV-2
    Keywords covid19
    Language English
    Publishing date 2020-03-11
    Publishing country United States
    Document type Journal Article ; Comment
    ZDB-ID 2061641-7
    ISSN 1474-4457 ; 1473-3099
    ISSN (online) 1474-4457
    ISSN 1473-3099
    DOI 10.1016/S1473-3099(20)30161-4
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    In stock of ZB MED Cologne/Königswinter

    Zs.A 5743: Show issues Location:
    Je nach Verfügbarkeit (siehe Angabe bei Bestand)
    bis Jg. 1994: Bestellungen von Artikeln über das Online-Bestellformular
    Jg. 1995 - 2021: Lesesall (2.OG)
    ab Jg. 2022: Lesesaal (EG)

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  2. Article ; Online: Reproducibility of COVID-era infectious disease models.

    Henderson, Alec S / Hickson, Roslyn I / Furlong, Morgan / McBryde, Emma S / Meehan, Michael T

    Epidemics

    2024  Volume 46, Page(s) 100743

    Abstract: Infectious disease modelling has been prominent throughout the COVID-19 pandemic, helping to understand the virus' transmission dynamics and inform response policies. Given their potential importance and translational impact, we evaluated the ... ...

    Abstract Infectious disease modelling has been prominent throughout the COVID-19 pandemic, helping to understand the virus' transmission dynamics and inform response policies. Given their potential importance and translational impact, we evaluated the computational reproducibility of infectious disease modelling articles from the COVID era. We found that four out of 100 randomly sampled studies released between January 2020 and August 2022 could be completely computationally reproduced using the resources provided (e.g., code, data, instructions) whilst a further eight were partially reproducible. For the 100 most highly cited articles from the same period we found that 11 were completely reproducible with a further 22 partially reproducible. Reflecting on our experience, we discuss common issues affecting computational reproducibility and how these might be addressed.
    MeSH term(s) Humans ; COVID-19/epidemiology ; Pandemics ; Reproducibility of Results ; Communicable Diseases/epidemiology
    Language English
    Publishing date 2024-01-23
    Publishing country Netherlands
    Document type Journal Article
    ZDB-ID 2467993-8
    ISSN 1878-0067 ; 1755-4365
    ISSN (online) 1878-0067
    ISSN 1755-4365
    DOI 10.1016/j.epidem.2024.100743
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  4. Article ; Online: Are We Better-Off? The Benefits and Costs of Australian COVID-19 Lockdown.

    Pak, Anton / Adegboye, Oyelola A / McBryde, Emma S

    Frontiers in public health

    2021  Volume 9, Page(s) 798478

    MeSH term(s) Australia ; COVID-19 ; Communicable Disease Control ; Cost-Benefit Analysis ; Humans ; SARS-CoV-2
    Language English
    Publishing date 2021-12-02
    Publishing country Switzerland
    Document type Journal Article
    ZDB-ID 2711781-9
    ISSN 2296-2565 ; 2296-2565
    ISSN (online) 2296-2565
    ISSN 2296-2565
    DOI 10.3389/fpubh.2021.798478
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  5. Article ; Online: A Systematic Review of Mathematical Models of Dengue Transmission and Vector Control: 2010-2020.

    Ogunlade, Samson T / Meehan, Michael T / Adekunle, Adeshina I / McBryde, Emma S

    Viruses

    2023  Volume 15, Issue 1

    Abstract: Vector control methods are considered effective in averting dengue transmission. However, several factors may modify their impact. Of these controls, chemical methods, in the long run, may increase mosquitoes' resistance to chemicides, thereby decreasing ...

    Abstract Vector control methods are considered effective in averting dengue transmission. However, several factors may modify their impact. Of these controls, chemical methods, in the long run, may increase mosquitoes' resistance to chemicides, thereby decreasing control efficacy. The biological methods, which may be self-sustaining and very effective, could be hampered by seasonality or heatwaves (resulting in, e.g., loss of
    MeSH term(s) Animals ; Humans ; Dengue/epidemiology ; Dengue/prevention & control ; Aedes ; Mosquito Vectors ; Models, Theoretical ; Wolbachia
    Language English
    Publishing date 2023-01-16
    Publishing country Switzerland
    Document type Systematic Review ; Journal Article ; Review ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
    ZDB-ID 2516098-9
    ISSN 1999-4915 ; 1999-4915
    ISSN (online) 1999-4915
    ISSN 1999-4915
    DOI 10.3390/v15010254
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  6. Article ; Online: Quantifying the impact of Wolbachia releases on dengue infection in Townsville, Australia.

    Ogunlade, Samson T / Adekunle, Adeshina I / Meehan, Michael T / McBryde, Emma S

    Scientific reports

    2023  Volume 13, Issue 1, Page(s) 14932

    Abstract: From October 2014 to February 2019, local authorities in Townsville, North Queensland, Australia continually introduced Wolbachia-infected mosquitoes to control seasonal outbreaks of dengue infection. In this study, we develop a mathematical modelling ... ...

    Abstract From October 2014 to February 2019, local authorities in Townsville, North Queensland, Australia continually introduced Wolbachia-infected mosquitoes to control seasonal outbreaks of dengue infection. In this study, we develop a mathematical modelling framework to estimate the effectiveness of this intervention as well as the relative dengue transmission rates of Wolbachia-infected and wild-type mosquitoes. We find that the transmission rate of Wolbachia-infected mosquitoes is reduced approximately by a factor of 20 relative to the uninfected wild-type population. In addition, the Townsville Wolbachia release program led to a 65% reduction in predicted dengue incidence during the release period and over 95% reduction in the 24 months that followed. Finally, to investigate the potential impact of other Wolbachia release programs, we use our estimates of relative transmissibility to calculate the relationship between the reproductive number of dengue and the proportion of Wolbachia-infected mosquitoes in the vector population.
    MeSH term(s) Animals ; Wolbachia ; Mosquito Vectors ; Australia/epidemiology ; Queensland/epidemiology ; Culicidae ; Dengue/epidemiology ; Dengue/prevention & control
    Language English
    Publishing date 2023-09-11
    Publishing country England
    Document type Journal Article ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
    ZDB-ID 2615211-3
    ISSN 2045-2322 ; 2045-2322
    ISSN (online) 2045-2322
    ISSN 2045-2322
    DOI 10.1038/s41598-023-42336-2
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  7. Article ; Online: "Hospitals respond to demand. Public health needs to respond to risk": health system lessons from a case study of northern Queensland's COVID-19 surveillance and response.

    Edelman, Alexandra / Allen, Tammy / Devine, Susan / Horwood, Paul F / McBryde, Emma S / Mudd, Julie / Warner, Jeffrey / Topp, Stephanie M

    BMC health services research

    2024  Volume 24, Issue 1, Page(s) 104

    Abstract: Background: The vast region of northern Queensland (NQ) in Australia experiences poorer health outcomes and a disproportionate burden of communicable diseases compared with urban populations in Australia. This study examined the governance of COVID-19 ... ...

    Abstract Background: The vast region of northern Queensland (NQ) in Australia experiences poorer health outcomes and a disproportionate burden of communicable diseases compared with urban populations in Australia. This study examined the governance of COVID-19 surveillance and response in NQ to identify strengths and opportunities for improvement.
    Methods: The manuscript presents an analysis of one case-unit within a broader case study project examining systems for surveillance and response for COVID-19 in NQ. Data were collected between October 2020-December 2021 comprising 47 interviews with clinical and public health staff, document review, and observation in organisational settings. Thematic analysis produced five key themes.
    Results: Study findings highlight key strengths of the COVID-19 response, including rapid implementation of response measures, and the relative autonomy of NQ's Public Health Units to lead logistical decision-making. However, findings also highlight limitations and fragility of the public health system more generally, including unclear accountabilities, constraints on local community engagement, and workforce and other resourcing shortfalls. These were framed by state-wide regulatory and organisational incentives that prioritise clinical health care rather than disease prevention, health protection, and health promotion. Although NQ mobilised an effective COVID-19 response, findings suggest that NQ public health systems are marked by fragility, calling into question the region's preparedness for future pandemic events and other public health crises.
    Conclusions: Study findings highlight an urgent need to improve governance, resourcing, and political priority of public health in NQ to address unmet needs and ongoing threats.
    MeSH term(s) Humans ; COVID-19/epidemiology ; Public Health ; Queensland/epidemiology ; Hospitals ; Australia
    Language English
    Publishing date 2024-01-18
    Publishing country England
    Document type Journal Article
    ZDB-ID 2050434-2
    ISSN 1472-6963 ; 1472-6963
    ISSN (online) 1472-6963
    ISSN 1472-6963
    DOI 10.1186/s12913-023-10502-x
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  8. Article: Critical Review of Tuberculosis Diagnosis in Children from Papua New Guinea Presenting to Health Facilities in the Torres Strait Islands, Australia.

    Foster, J'Belle / Marais, Ben J / Mendez, Diana / McBryde, Emma S

    Microorganisms

    2023  Volume 11, Issue 12

    Abstract: Paediatric tuberculosis can be challenging to diagnose, and various approaches are used in different settings. A retrospective review was conducted on Papua New Guinea (PNG) children with presumptive TB who presented for health care in the Torres Strait ... ...

    Abstract Paediatric tuberculosis can be challenging to diagnose, and various approaches are used in different settings. A retrospective review was conducted on Papua New Guinea (PNG) children with presumptive TB who presented for health care in the Torres Strait Islands, Australia, between 2016 and 2019. We compared diagnostic algorithms including the modified Keith Edwards TB Score, The Union Desk Guide, and the new World Health Organization (WHO) algorithm, with diagnostic practices used in the remote Torres Strait Islands. Of the 66 children with presumptive TB, 7 had bacteriologically confirmed TB. The majority (52%) were under 5 years (median age 61 months), and 45% were malnourished. There was moderate agreement across the diagnostic methods (K = 0.34; 95% CI 0.23-0.46), with the highest concordance observed between The Union Desk Guide and the WHO's algorithm (K = 0.61). Local TB physicians might have over-diagnosed presumed lymph node TB while under-diagnosing TB overall. Enhancing the precision and promptness of paediatric TB diagnosis using practical tools is pivotal to decrease TB-related child mortality, notably in isolated regions like the Torres Strait and the Western Province of PNG.
    Language English
    Publishing date 2023-12-08
    Publishing country Switzerland
    Document type Journal Article
    ZDB-ID 2720891-6
    ISSN 2076-2607
    ISSN 2076-2607
    DOI 10.3390/microorganisms11122947
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  9. Article ; Online: Time to commencement of effective treatment in patients with drug-resistant tuberculosis diagnosed in the Torres Strait-Papua New Guinea cross-border region.

    Foster, J'Belle / Mendez, Diana / Marais, Ben / Peniyamina, Dunstan / McBryde, Emma

    Rural and remote health

    2023  Volume 23, Issue 1, Page(s) 7165

    Abstract: Introduction: Delays between self-reported symptom onset and commencement of effective treatment contribute to ongoing tuberculosis (TB) transmission, which is a particular concern in patients with drug-resistant (DR)-TB. The study authors assessed ... ...

    Abstract Introduction: Delays between self-reported symptom onset and commencement of effective treatment contribute to ongoing tuberculosis (TB) transmission, which is a particular concern in patients with drug-resistant (DR)-TB. The study authors assessed improvements in time to commencement of effective treatment in patients diagnosed with DR-TB in the Torres Strait-Papua New Guinea cross-border region.
    Methods: All laboratory-confirmed DR-TB cases diagnosed in the Torres Strait between 1 March 2000 and 31 March 2020 were reviewed. Total time from self-reported onset of symptoms to effective treatment commencement in different programmatic time periods was assessed. Pairwise analyses and time to event proportional hazard calculations were used to explore the association between delays in median time to effective treatment, and selected variables. Data were further analysed to examine predictors of excessive treatment delay.
    Results: The median number of days from self-reported onset of symptoms to effective treatment commencement was 124 days (interquartile range 51-214) over two decades. Between 2006 and 2012, most (57%) cases exceeded this 'grand median' while the median 'time to treat' in the most recent time period (2016-2020) was significantly reduced to 29 days (p<0.001). Although there was a reduction in the median 'time to treat' with the introduction of Xpert MTB/RIF (135 days pre-Xpert v 67 days post-Xpert) this was not statistically significant (p=0.07). Establishment of the Torres and Cape TB Control Unit on Thursday Island (2016-2020) was significantly associated with reduced treatment delay, compared to the previous TB program period (2000-2005, p<0.04; 2006-2012, p<0.001).
    Conclusion: Minimising TB treatment delay in remote settings like the Torres Strait-Papua New Guinea cross-border region requires effective decentralised diagnosis and management structures. The results of this study suggest that the establishment of the Torres and Cape TB Control Unit on Thursday Island significantly improved time to commencement of effective TB treatment. Possible contributing factors include better TB education, cross-border communication and patient-centred care.
    MeSH term(s) Humans ; Mycobacterium tuberculosis ; Papua New Guinea/epidemiology ; Tuberculosis, Multidrug-Resistant/diagnosis ; Tuberculosis, Multidrug-Resistant/drug therapy ; Treatment Outcome ; Time-to-Treatment
    Language English
    Publishing date 2023-03-28
    Publishing country Australia
    Document type Journal Article
    ZDB-ID 2105620-1
    ISSN 1445-6354 ; 1445-6354
    ISSN (online) 1445-6354
    ISSN 1445-6354
    DOI 10.22605/RRH7165
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  10. Article: Does High Public Trust Amplify Compliance with Stringent COVID-19 Government Health Guidelines? A Multi-country Analysis Using Data from 102,627 Individuals.

    Pak, Anton / McBryde, Emma / Adegboye, Oyelola A

    Risk management and healthcare policy

    2021  Volume 14, Page(s) 293–302

    Abstract: Purpose: To examine how public trust mediates the people's adherence to levels of stringent government health policies and to establish if these effects vary across the political regimes.: Methods: This study utilizes data from two large-scale ... ...

    Abstract Purpose: To examine how public trust mediates the people's adherence to levels of stringent government health policies and to establish if these effects vary across the political regimes.
    Methods: This study utilizes data from two large-scale surveys: the global behaviors and perceptions at the onset of COVID-19 pandemic and the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker (OxCGRT). Linear regression models were used to estimate the effects of public trust and strictness of restriction measures on people's compliance level. The model accounted for individual and daily variations in country-level stringency of preventative measures. Differences in the dynamics between public trust, the stringent level of government health guidelines and policy compliance were also examined among countries based on political regimes.
    Results: We find strong evidence of the increase in compliance due to the imposition of stricter government restrictions. The examination of heterogeneous effects suggests that high public trust in government and the perception of its truthfulness double the impact of policy restrictions on public compliance. Among political regimes, higher levels of public trust significantly increase the predicted compliance as stringency level rises in authoritarian and democratic countries.
    Conclusion: This study highlights the importance of public trust in government and its institutions during public health emergencies such as the COVID-19 pandemic. Our results are relevant and help understand why governments need to address the risks of non-compliance among low trusting individuals to achieve the success of the containment policies.
    Language English
    Publishing date 2021-01-26
    Publishing country England
    Document type Journal Article
    ZDB-ID 2495128-6
    ISSN 1179-1594
    ISSN 1179-1594
    DOI 10.2147/RMHP.S278774
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