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  1. Article ; Online: Impact of climate change on vegetation patterns in Altay Prefecture, China.

    Li, Li / Pang, Yi-Zhi / Sun, Gui-Quan / Ruan, Shigui

    Mathematical medicine and biology : a journal of the IMA

    2024  Volume 41, Issue 1, Page(s) 53–80

    Abstract: Altay Prefecture, a typical arid region in northwestern China, has experienced the climate transition from warming-drying to warming-wetting since 1980s and has attracted widespread attention. Nonetheless, it is still unclear how climate change has ... ...

    Abstract Altay Prefecture, a typical arid region in northwestern China, has experienced the climate transition from warming-drying to warming-wetting since 1980s and has attracted widespread attention. Nonetheless, it is still unclear how climate change has influenced the distribution of vegetation in this region. In this paper, a reaction-diffusion model of the climate-vegetation system is proposed to study the impact of climate change (precipitation, temperature and carbon dioxide concentration) on vegetation patterns in Altay Prefecture. Our results indicate that the tendency of vegetation growth in Altay Prefecture improved gradually from 1985 to 2010. Under the current climate conditions, the increase of precipitation results in the change of vegetation pattern structures, and eventually vegetation coverage tends to be uniform. Moreover, we found that there exists an optimal temperature where the spot vegetation pattern structure remains stable. Furthermore, the increase in carbon dioxide concentration induces vegetation pattern transition. Based on four climate change scenarios of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), we used the power law range (PLR) to predict the optimal scenario for the sustainable development of the vegetation ecosystem in Altay Prefecture.
    MeSH term(s) Ecosystem ; Climate Change ; Carbon Dioxide ; China ; Temperature
    Chemical Substances Carbon Dioxide (142M471B3J)
    Language English
    Publishing date 2024-02-29
    Publishing country England
    Document type Journal Article
    ZDB-ID 2119786-6
    ISSN 1477-8602 ; 0265-0746 ; 1477-8599
    ISSN (online) 1477-8602
    ISSN 0265-0746 ; 1477-8599
    DOI 10.1093/imammb/dqae002
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  2. Article ; Online: Transmission dynamics in infectious diseases.

    Sun, Gui-Quan / Xu, Rui

    Mathematical biosciences and engineering : MBE

    2020  Volume 17, Issue 4, Page(s) 2820–2821

    MeSH term(s) Communicable Diseases/epidemiology ; Humans
    Language English
    Publishing date 2020-09-25
    Publishing country United States
    Document type Editorial ; Introductory Journal Article
    ZDB-ID 2265126-3
    ISSN 1551-0018 ; 1551-0018
    ISSN (online) 1551-0018
    ISSN 1551-0018
    DOI 10.3934/mbe.2020155
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  3. Article ; Online: Editorial

    Gui-Quan Sun / Yongping Wu / Bai-Lian Li / Yipeng Guo

    Frontiers in Physics, Vol

    Impacts of global warming on ecology and meteorology and the related physical mechanisms, evaluation and prediction

    2022  Volume 10

    Keywords global warming ; ecology ; meteorology ; physical mechanisms ; prediction ; Physics ; QC1-999
    Language English
    Publishing date 2022-11-01T00:00:00Z
    Publisher Frontiers Media S.A.
    Document type Article ; Online
    Database BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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  4. Article ; Online: Forecast for peak infections in the second wave of the Omicron after the adjustment of zero-COVID policy in the mainland of China.

    Wang, Sheng-Tao / Wu, Yong-Ping / Li, Li / Li, Yong / Sun, Gui-Quan

    Infectious Disease Modelling

    2023  Volume 8, Issue 2, Page(s) 562–573

    Abstract: On December 7, 2022, the Chinese government optimized the current epidemic prevention and control policy, and no longer adopted the zero-COVID policy and mandatory quarantine measures. Based on the above policy changes, this paper establishes a ... ...

    Abstract On December 7, 2022, the Chinese government optimized the current epidemic prevention and control policy, and no longer adopted the zero-COVID policy and mandatory quarantine measures. Based on the above policy changes, this paper establishes a compartment dynamics model considering age distribution, home isolation and vaccinations. Parameter estimation was performed using improved least squares and Nelder-Mead simplex algorithms combined with modified case data. Then, using the estimated parameter values to predict a second wave of the outbreak, the peak of severe cases will reach on 8 May 2023, the number of severe cases will reach 206,000. Next, it is proposed that with the extension of the effective time of antibodies obtained after infection, the peak of severe cases in the second wave of the epidemic will be delayed, and the final scale of the disease will be reduced. When the effectiveness of antibodies is 6 months, the severe cases of the second wave will peak on July 5, 2023, the number of severe cases is 194,000. Finally, the importance of vaccination rates is demonstrated, when the vaccination rate of susceptible people under 60 years old reaches 98%, and the vaccination rate of susceptible people over 60 years old reaches 96%, the peak of severe cases in the second wave of the epidemic will be reached on 13 July 2023, when the number of severe cases is 166,000.
    Language English
    Publishing date 2023-05-30
    Publishing country China
    Document type Journal Article
    ZDB-ID 3015225-2
    ISSN 2468-0427 ; 2468-2152
    ISSN (online) 2468-0427
    ISSN 2468-2152
    DOI 10.1016/j.idm.2023.05.007
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  5. Article ; Online: Global perspectives linking climate change with vegetation pattern: Reply to comments on "Impacts of climate change on vegetation pattern: Mathematical modeling and data analysis".

    Sun, Gui-Quan / Li, Li / Li, Jing / Liu, Chen / Wu, Yong-Ping / Gao, Shupeng / Wang, Zhen / Feng, Guo-Lin

    Physics of life reviews

    2023  Volume 47, Page(s) 119–121

    MeSH term(s) Climate Change ; Models, Theoretical ; Ecosystem ; Data Analysis ; China ; Temperature
    Language English
    Publishing date 2023-10-10
    Publishing country Netherlands
    Document type Journal Article
    ZDB-ID 2148883-6
    ISSN 1873-1457 ; 1571-0645
    ISSN (online) 1873-1457
    ISSN 1571-0645
    DOI 10.1016/j.plrev.2023.08.021
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  6. Article ; Online: What is the role of aerosol transmission in SARS-Cov-2 Omicron spread in Shanghai?

    Sun, Gui-Quan / Ma, Xia / Zhang, Zhenzhen / Liu, Quan-Hui / Li, Bai-Lian

    BMC infectious diseases

    2022  Volume 22, Issue 1, Page(s) 880

    Abstract: The Omicron transmission has infected nearly 600,000 people in Shanghai from March 26 to May 31, 2022. Combined with different control measures taken by the government in different periods, a dynamic model was constructed to investigate the impact of ... ...

    Abstract The Omicron transmission has infected nearly 600,000 people in Shanghai from March 26 to May 31, 2022. Combined with different control measures taken by the government in different periods, a dynamic model was constructed to investigate the impact of medical resources, shelter hospitals and aerosol transmission generated by clustered nucleic acid testing on the spread of Omicron. The parameters of the model were estimated by least square method and MCMC method, and the accuracy of the model was verified by the cumulative number of asymptomatic infected persons and confirmed cases in Shanghai from March 26 to May 31, 2022. The result of numerical simulation demonstrated that the aerosol transmission figured prominently in the transmission of Omicron in Shanghai from March 28 to April 30. Without aerosol transmission, the number of asymptomatic subjects and symptomatic cases would be reduced to 130,000 and 11,730 by May 31, respectively. Without the expansion of shelter hospitals in the second phase, the final size of asymptomatic subjects and symptomatic cases might reach 23.2 million and 4.88 million by May 31, respectively. Our results also revealed that expanded vaccination played a vital role in controlling the spread of Omicron. However, even if the vaccination rate were 100%, the transmission of Omicron should not be completely blocked. Therefore, other control measures should be taken to curb the spread of Omicron, such as widespread antiviral therapies, enhanced testing and strict tracking quarantine measures. This perspective could be utilized as a reference for the transmission and prevention of Omicron in other large cities with a population of 10 million like Shanghai.
    MeSH term(s) Humans ; SARS-CoV-2 ; COVID-19/prevention & control ; China/epidemiology ; Quarantine ; Respiratory Aerosols and Droplets
    Language English
    Publishing date 2022-11-24
    Publishing country England
    Document type Journal Article
    ZDB-ID 2041550-3
    ISSN 1471-2334 ; 1471-2334
    ISSN (online) 1471-2334
    ISSN 1471-2334
    DOI 10.1186/s12879-022-07876-4
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  7. Article ; Online: Evaluating the impact of test-trace-isolate for COVID-19 management and alternative strategies.

    Zhang, Kun / Xia, Zhichu / Huang, Shudong / Sun, Gui-Quan / Lv, Jiancheng / Ajelli, Marco / Ejima, Keisuke / Liu, Quan-Hui

    PLoS computational biology

    2023  Volume 19, Issue 9, Page(s) e1011423

    Abstract: There are many contrasting results concerning the effectiveness of Test-Trace-Isolate (TTI) strategies in mitigating SARS-CoV-2 spread. To shed light on this debate, we developed a novel static-temporal multiplex network characterizing both the regular ( ... ...

    Abstract There are many contrasting results concerning the effectiveness of Test-Trace-Isolate (TTI) strategies in mitigating SARS-CoV-2 spread. To shed light on this debate, we developed a novel static-temporal multiplex network characterizing both the regular (static) and random (temporal) contact patterns of individuals and a SARS-CoV-2 transmission model calibrated with historical COVID-19 epidemiological data. We estimated that the TTI strategy alone could not control the disease spread: assuming R0 = 2.5, the infection attack rate would be reduced by 24.5%. Increased test capacity and improved contact trace efficiency only slightly improved the effectiveness of the TTI. We thus investigated the effectiveness of the TTI strategy when coupled with reactive social distancing policies. Limiting contacts on the temporal contact layer would be insufficient to control an epidemic and contacts on both layers would need to be limited simultaneously. For example, the infection attack rate would be reduced by 68.1% when the reactive distancing policy disconnects 30% and 50% of contacts on static and temporal layers, respectively. Our findings highlight that, to reduce the overall transmission, it is important to limit contacts regardless of their types in addition to identifying infected individuals through contact tracing, given the substantial proportion of asymptomatic and pre-symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 transmission.
    MeSH term(s) Humans ; COVID-19/epidemiology ; COVID-19/prevention & control ; SARS-CoV-2 ; Contact Tracing ; Epidemics ; Physical Distancing
    Language English
    Publishing date 2023-09-01
    Publishing country United States
    Document type Journal Article ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
    ZDB-ID 2193340-6
    ISSN 1553-7358 ; 1553-734X
    ISSN (online) 1553-7358
    ISSN 1553-734X
    DOI 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1011423
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  8. Article: Optimal control dynamics of Gonorrhea in a structured population.

    Asamoah, Joshua Kiddy K / Safianu, Beilawu / Afrifa, Emmanuel / Obeng, Benjamin / Seidu, Baba / Wireko, Fredrick Asenso / Sun, Gui-Quan

    Heliyon

    2023  Volume 9, Issue 10, Page(s) e20531

    Abstract: Gonorrhea is a serious global health problem due to its high incidence, with approximately 82.4 million new cases in 2020. To evaluate the consequences of targeted dynamic control of gonorrhea infection transmission, a model for gonorrhea with optimal ... ...

    Abstract Gonorrhea is a serious global health problem due to its high incidence, with approximately 82.4 million new cases in 2020. To evaluate the consequences of targeted dynamic control of gonorrhea infection transmission, a model for gonorrhea with optimal control analysis is proposed for a structured population. The study looked at the model's positively invariant and bounded regions. The gonorrhea secondary infection expression,
    Language English
    Publishing date 2023-10-04
    Publishing country England
    Document type Journal Article
    ZDB-ID 2835763-2
    ISSN 2405-8440
    ISSN 2405-8440
    DOI 10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e20531
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  9. Article ; Online: The influence of mask use on the spread of COVID-19 during pandemic in New York City.

    Ma, Xia / Luo, Xiao-Feng / Li, Li / Li, Yong / Sun, Gui-Quan

    Results in physics

    2022  Volume 34, Page(s) 105224

    Abstract: In New York City, the situation of COVID-19 is so serious that it has caused hundreds of thousands of people to be infected due to its strong infectivity. The desired effect of wearing masks by the public is not ideal, though increasingly recommended by ... ...

    Abstract In New York City, the situation of COVID-19 is so serious that it has caused hundreds of thousands of people to be infected due to its strong infectivity. The desired effect of wearing masks by the public is not ideal, though increasingly recommended by the WHO. In order to reveal the potential effect of mask use, we posed a dynamical model with the effective coverage of wearing face masks to assess the impact of mask use on the COVID-19 transmission. We obtained the basic reproduction number
    Language English
    Publishing date 2022-01-22
    Publishing country Netherlands
    Document type Journal Article
    ZDB-ID 2631798-9
    ISSN 2211-3797 ; 2211-3797
    ISSN (online) 2211-3797
    ISSN 2211-3797
    DOI 10.1016/j.rinp.2022.105224
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  10. Article ; Online: Optimal control dynamics of Gonorrhea in a structured population

    Joshua Kiddy K. Asamoah / Beilawu Safianu / Emmanuel Afrifa / Benjamin Obeng / Baba Seidu / Fredrick Asenso Wireko / Gui-Quan Sun

    Heliyon, Vol 9, Iss 10, Pp e20531- (2023)

    2023  

    Abstract: Gonorrhea is a serious global health problem due to its high incidence, with approximately 82.4 million new cases in 2020. To evaluate the consequences of targeted dynamic control of gonorrhea infection transmission, a model for gonorrhea with optimal ... ...

    Abstract Gonorrhea is a serious global health problem due to its high incidence, with approximately 82.4 million new cases in 2020. To evaluate the consequences of targeted dynamic control of gonorrhea infection transmission, a model for gonorrhea with optimal control analysis is proposed for a structured population. The study looked at the model's positively invariant and bounded regions. The gonorrhea secondary infection expression, R0 for the structured population is computed. The maximum principle of Pontryagin is utilised to construct the optimal system for the formulated mathematical model. To reduce the continuous propagation of gonorrhea, we incorporated education, condoms usage, vaccinations, and treatment as control strategies. The numerical simulations show that the number of infections decreases when the controls are implemented. The effectiveness of the controls is shown using the efficacy plots.
    Keywords Optimal control analysis ; Gonorrhea dynamics ; Gonorrhea reproduction number ; Structured population ; Science (General) ; Q1-390 ; Social sciences (General) ; H1-99
    Language English
    Publishing date 2023-10-01T00:00:00Z
    Publisher Elsevier
    Document type Article ; Online
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