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Article ; Online: Number of People with Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus in 2035 and 2050: A Modelling Study in 188 Countries.

Guzman-Vilca, Wilmer Cristobal / Carrillo-Larco, Rodrigo M

Current diabetes reviews

2024

Abstract: Background: Future demographic changes will increase the number of people living with non-communicable diseases. We projected the number of people with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) in 2035 and 2050 at the global and country levels.: Methods: We ... ...

Abstract	Background: Future demographic changes will increase the number of people living with non-communicable diseases. We projected the number of people with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) in 2035 and 2050 at the global and country levels. Methods: We pooled T2DM prevalence estimates from the Global Burden of Disease Study and population estimates from the United Nations for 188 countries. We computed the absolute number of people with T2DM in 2020 and predicted the future number in 2035 and 2050 under four scenarios for the T2DM prevalence: 1) It held constant, 2) It increased by 50%, 3) It decreased by 10%, and 4) It followed 1990-2019 country-specific past trends. Results: The global number of people with T2DM was 445 million in 2020, and it is projected to increase in 2050 to 730 million if prevalence remains unchanged, 1,095 million if prevalence increases by 50%, 657 million if prevalence decreases by 10%, and 1,153 million if prevalence follows country-specific 1990-2019 past trends. Under all scenarios, Sub-Saharan Africa and lowincome countries had the highest relative increase in the number of people with T2DM. The share of people with T2DM aged <60 years is expected to drop from 5 out of 10 in 2020 to 4 out of 10 people in 2050 under all scenarios. Conclusions: There will be a massive growth in the number of people living with T2DM, and low-income countries and countries in Sub-Saharan Africa will be the most affected. Health systems must be strengthened to ensure optimal care for the future population with T2DM.
Language	English
Publishing date	2024-01-12
Publishing country	United Arab Emirates
Document type	Journal Article
ISSN	1875-6417
ISSN (online)	1875-6417
DOI	10.2174/0115733998274323231230131843
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Article ; Online: COVID-19 data sources in Latin America and the Caribbean.

Carrillo-Larco, Rodrigo M

Travel medicine and infectious disease

2020 Volume 38, Page(s) 101750

MeSH term(s)	COVID-19 ; Caribbean Region ; Humans ; Information Storage and Retrieval ; Latin America/epidemiology ; SARS-CoV-2 ; Venezuela
Keywords	covid19
Language	English
Publishing date	2020-05-29
Publishing country	Netherlands
Document type	Letter ; Comment
ZDB-ID	2170891-5
ISSN	1873-0442 ; 1477-8939
ISSN (online)	1873-0442
ISSN	1477-8939
DOI	10.1016/j.tmaid.2020.101750
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Article ; Online: Second-hand smoke exposure in adolescents in Latin America and the Caribbean: a pooled analysis.

Bernabe-Ortiz, Antonio / Carrillo-Larco, Rodrigo M

Lancet regional health. Americas

2023 Volume 20, Page(s) 100478

Abstract: Background: Second-hand smoke exposure is prevalent amongst adolescents, despite of being a preventable risk factor associated with unfavourable outcomes. The distribution of this risk factor varies by underlying determinants and public health officers ... ...

Abstract	Background: Second-hand smoke exposure is prevalent amongst adolescents, despite of being a preventable risk factor associated with unfavourable outcomes. The distribution of this risk factor varies by underlying determinants and public health officers need contemporary evidence to update policies. Using the most recent data available from adolescents in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC), we described the prevalence of second-hand smoking. Methods: Pooled analysis of Global School-based Student Health (GSHS) surveys conducted from 2010 to 2018 was conducted. Two indicators were analysed based on information from the 7 days prior to the survey: a) any exposure to second-hand smoking (0 vs ≥1 days of exposure); and b) daily exposure (<7 vs 7 days). Prevalence estimates were carried out accounting for the complex survey design, and reported overall, by country, by sex, and by subregion. Findings: GSHS surveys were administered in 18 countries, yielding a total of 95,805 subjects. Pooled age-standardised prevalence of second-hand smoking was 60.9% (95% CI: 59.9%-62.0%) with no substantial differences between boys and girls. The age-standardised prevalence of any second-hand smoking varied from 40.2% in Anguilla to 68.2% in Jamaica, and the highest prevalence was in the Southern Latin America subregion (65.9%). Pooled age-standardised prevalence of daily second-hand smoking was 15.1% (95% CI: 14.2%-16.1%), and was higher in girls than boys (16.5% vs 13.7%; p < 0.001). The age-standardised prevalence of daily second-hand smoking ranged between 4.8% in Peru to 28.7% in Jamaica, and the highest age-standardised prevalence was in Southern Latin America (19.7%). Interpretation: The prevalence of any second-hand smoking is high among adolescents in LAC, though estimates changed substantially by country. While policies and interventions to reduce/stop smoking are implemented, attention should also be paid to avoid second-hand smoke exposure. Funding: Wellcome Trust International Training Fellowship (214185/Z/18/Z).
Language	English
Publishing date	2023-03-20
Publishing country	England
Document type	Journal Article
ISSN	2667-193X
ISSN (online)	2667-193X
DOI	10.1016/j.lana.2023.100478
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Article ; Online: Achieving replicable subphenotypes of adult-onset diabetes.

Varghese, Jithin Sam / Carrillo-Larco, Rodrigo M / Narayan, Km Venkat

The lancet. Diabetes & endocrinology

2023 Volume 11, Issue 9, Page(s) 635–636

MeSH term(s)	Humans ; Adult ; Phenotype ; Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2
Language	English
Publishing date	2023-07-31
Publishing country	England
Document type	Letter ; Comment
ISSN	2213-8595
ISSN (online)	2213-8595
DOI	10.1016/S2213-8587(23)00195-X
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Article ; Online: The burden of diabetes in the Americas.

Bernabe-Ortiz, Antonio / Carrillo-Larco, Rodrigo M

The lancet. Diabetes & endocrinology

2022 Volume 10, Issue 9, Page(s) 613–614

MeSH term(s)	Americas ; Diabetes Mellitus ; Humans
Language	English
Publishing date	2022-07-15
Publishing country	England
Document type	Journal Article ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't ; Comment
ISSN	2213-8595
ISSN (online)	2213-8595
DOI	10.1016/S2213-8587(22)00196-6
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Article ; Online: Cardiometabolic risk profile of young and old adults with diabetes: Pooled, cross-sectional analysis of 42 national health surveys.

Carrillo-Larco, Rodrigo M / Guzman-Vilca, Wilmer Cristobal / Bernabe-Ortiz, Antonio

Primary care diabetes

2023 Volume 17, Issue 6, Page(s) 643–649

Abstract: ... difference was found in men in Qatar (∼6 kg/m: Conclusions: Levels of cardiometabolic risk factors ...

Abstract	Aims: To compare levels of cardiometabolic risk factors in young and old adults with diabetes. Methods: Pooled analysis of 42 STEPS Surveys (n = 133,717). Diabetes was defined as self-reported diagnosis or fasting plasma glucose ≥ 126 mg/dl. There were two age groups: < 40 and ≥ 40 years. We summarized the mean levels of four cardiometabolic risk factors by country, sex and age group. Results: In 11 (men) and seven countries (women), the mean BMI seemed higher in young versus old adults; largest difference was found in men in Qatar (∼6 kg/m Conclusions: Levels of cardiometabolic risk factors in young versus old adults with diabetes were heterogenous across 42 countries and depended on the risk factor. This calls to monitor cardiometabolic risk factors in young adults with diabetes.
MeSH term(s)	Male ; Young Adult ; Humans ; Female ; Adult ; Cross-Sectional Studies ; Cardiovascular Diseases/diagnosis ; Cardiovascular Diseases/epidemiology ; Diabetes Mellitus/diagnosis ; Diabetes Mellitus/epidemiology ; Risk Factors ; Health Surveys ; Body Mass Index
Language	English
Publishing date	2023-10-25
Publishing country	England
Document type	Journal Article
ZDB-ID	2273997-X
ISSN	1878-0210 ; 1751-9918
ISSN (online)	1878-0210
ISSN	1751-9918
DOI	10.1016/j.pcd.2023.10.007
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Article ; Online: Urbanization, Altitude and Cardiovascular Risk.

Bernabe-Ortiz, Antonio / Carrillo-Larco, Rodrigo M

Global heart

2022 Volume 17, Issue 1, Page(s) 42

Abstract: ... <500 meters above the sea level [m.a.s.l.], between 500 and 2,499 m.a.s.l, between 2,500 and 3,499 m ... a.s.l., and ≥3,500 m.a.s.l.). Crude and adjusted Poisson regression models were built to assess ... urbanization, 30,722 (25.4%) subjects were from rural areas, and 60.6% lives at <500 m.a.s.l., whereas only 9.3 ...

Abstract	Background: There is limited information regarding the variation of the cardiovascular (CV) risk, that combines multiple risk factors in one metric, according to urbanization and altitude. Objective: To assess and disentangle the potential association between urbanization and altitude with absolute CV risk using Peruvian nationally representative surveys. Methods: Pooled analysis of Peruvian Demographic Health Surveys (from 2014 to 2020), including subjects aged between 40 and 74 years, was conducted. The outcome of interest was the 10-year predicted absolute CV risk based on the non-laboratory version of the World Health Organization (WHO) and split into <10% and ≥10%. The exposures were urbanization (rural or urban) and altitude (<500 meters above the sea level [m.a.s.l.], between 500 and 2,499 m.a.s.l, between 2,500 and 3,499 m.a.s.l., and ≥3,500 m.a.s.l.). Crude and adjusted Poisson regression models were built to assess the associations of interest, reporting prevalence ratios (PR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI). Results: Data of 80,409 subjects, mean age 54.3 (SD: 8.8) and 42,640 (54.4%) females were analyzed. Regarding urbanization, 30,722 (25.4%) subjects were from rural areas, and 60.6% lives at <500 m.a.s.l., whereas only 9.3% lives at ≥3500 m.a.s.l. The 10-year predicted absolute CV risk mean was 4.5% (SD: 3.1), and 7.8% had a CV risk ≥10%. In multivariable model, urbanization, mainly rurality (PR = 0.89; 95%CI: 0.81-0.97) and altitude (PR = 0.82; 95%CI: 0.75-0.90 for those living between 2,500-3,490 m.a.s.l. and PR = 0.68; 95%CI: 0.60-0.76 for those living ≥3,500 m.a.s.l) were factors independently associated with CV risk. Urbanization was an effect modifier of the association between altitude and CV risk with a greater effect in urban settings. Conclusion: Urbanization, specifically rurality, and high-altitude, mainly ≥2,500 m.a.s.l., were factors independently associated with lower predicted CV risk.
MeSH term(s)	Adult ; Aged ; Altitude ; Cardiovascular Diseases/epidemiology ; Female ; Heart Disease Risk Factors ; Humans ; Male ; Middle Aged ; Peru/epidemiology ; Prevalence ; Urbanization
Language	English
Publishing date	2022-06-21
Publishing country	England
Document type	Journal Article ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
ZDB-ID	2629633-0
ISSN	2211-8179 ; 2211-8160
ISSN (online)	2211-8179
ISSN	2211-8160
DOI	10.5334/gh.1130
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Article ; Online: Mortality attributable to type 2 diabetes mellitus in Latin America and the Caribbean: a comparative risk assessment analysis.

Guzman-Vilca, Wilmer Cristobal / Carrillo-Larco, Rodrigo M

BMJ open diabetes research & care

2022 Volume 10, Issue 1

Abstract: Introduction: We quantified the proportion and the absolute number of deaths attributable to type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) using an estimation approach.: Research design and methods: We combined T2DM ... ...

Abstract	Introduction: We quantified the proportion and the absolute number of deaths attributable to type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) using an estimation approach. Research design and methods: We combined T2DM prevalence estimates from the NCD Risk Factor Collaboration, relative risks between T2DM and all-cause mortality from a meta-analysis of cohorts in LAC, and death rates from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. We estimated population-attributable fractions (PAFs) and computed the absolute number of attributable deaths in 1990 and 2019 by multiplying the PAFs by the total deaths in each country, year, sex, and 5-year age group. Results: Between 1985 and 2014 in LAC, the proportion of all-cause mortality attributable to T2DM increased from 12.2% to 16.9% in men and from 14.5% to 19.3% in women. In 2019, the absolute number of deaths attributable to T2DM was 349 787 in men and 330 414 in women. The highest death rates (deaths per 100 000 people) in 2019 were in Saint Kitts and Nevis (325 in men, 229 in women), Guyana (313 in men, 272 in women), and Haiti (269 in men, 265 in women). Conclusions: A substantial burden of all deaths is attributed to T2DM in LAC. To decrease the mortality attributable to T2DM in LAC, policies are needed to strengthen early diagnosis and management, along with the prevention of complications.
MeSH term(s)	Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2/epidemiology ; Female ; Humans ; Latin America/epidemiology ; Male ; Prevalence ; Risk Assessment ; Risk Factors
Language	English
Publishing date	2022-02-20
Publishing country	England
Document type	Journal Article ; Meta-Analysis ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
ZDB-ID	2732918-5
ISSN	2052-4897 ; 2052-4897
ISSN (online)	2052-4897
ISSN	2052-4897
DOI	10.1136/bmjdrc-2021-002673
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Article ; Online: Physical Activity Patterns Among Adolescents in Latin America and the Caribbean Region.

Bernabe-Ortiz, Antonio / Carrillo-Larco, Rodrigo M

Journal of physical activity & health

2022 Volume 19, Issue 9, Page(s) 607–614

Abstract: Background: Physical activity implies different patterns, but many studies have focused on physical inactivity and sedentary behaviors. This study aimed to estimate the prevalence of different physical activity patterns among adolescents in Latin ... ...

Abstract	Background: Physical activity implies different patterns, but many studies have focused on physical inactivity and sedentary behaviors. This study aimed to estimate the prevalence of different physical activity patterns among adolescents in Latin America and the Caribbean region. Methods: Pooled analysis of the most updated data of the Global School-based Student Health surveys. Age-standardized prevalence of 4 outcomes was estimated using information from the last 7 days: physical inactivity (0 d of at least 60 min/d), insufficient physical activity (<5 d of at least 60 min/d), commuting physical activity (≥5 d of walking or biking to school), and sedentary behavior (≥3 h/d of sitting time). Results: A total of 132,071 records (33 countries) were analyzed, mean age 14.6 years, 51.2% girls. Pooled age-standardized prevalence of physical inactivity was 22.3%, greater among girls (25.4%) than boys (19.1%); insufficient physical activity was present in 67.7%, greater in girls (73.6%) than boys (61.5%); commuting physical activity was seen in 43.7%, similar between girls (43.3%) and boys (44.1%); and sedentary behavior was present in 43.4%, greater among girls (45.4%) than boys (41.3%). Conclusions: In Latin America and the Caribbean region, almost two-thirds of adolescents are insufficiently physically active, ≥40% are sedentary, and ≥20% are physically inactive, and these behaviors are more frequent among girls than boys.
MeSH term(s)	Adolescent ; Cross-Sectional Studies ; Exercise ; Female ; Humans ; Latin America/epidemiology ; Male ; Schools ; Sedentary Behavior
Language	English
Publishing date	2022-08-17
Publishing country	United States
Document type	Journal Article ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
ISSN	1543-5474
ISSN (online)	1543-5474
DOI	10.1123/jpah.2022-0136
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Article ; Online: Prevalence and trends of active and passive smoking among Peruvian adolescents.

Bernabé-Ortiz, Antonio / Carrillo-Larco, Rodrigo M

Revista peruana de medicina experimental y salud publica

2022 Volume 39, Issue 2, Page(s) 193–200

Abstract: Objective.: This study aimed to assess the trends of different smoking indicators among Peruvian adolescents. Additionally, we evaluated whether such trends were different by sex or among those without previous smoking history.: Materials and methods.! ...

Title translation	Prevalencia y tendencias de tabaquismo activo y pasivo en adolescentes peruanos.
Abstract	Objective.: This study aimed to assess the trends of different smoking indicators among Peruvian adolescents. Additionally, we evaluated whether such trends were different by sex or among those without previous smoking history. Materials and methods.: We analyzed the Global Youth Tobacco Survey (Global Youth Tobacco Survey 2007, 2014, 2019). Active smoking was defined according to smoking in the last 30 days. Passive smoking was assessed based on exposure to tobacco inside and outside the household, both overall and daily. Analyses considered the sample design. Results.: A total of 17,047 records (9,869 in 2007, 3,424 in 2014, and 3,754 in 2019) were analyzed; the mean age was 14 years, and 49.9% were women. Previous smoking history was reported in 26.6% of the records; such prevalence fell from 45.2% (2007), to 25.3% (2014), and to 19.4% (2019, p-value for trend < 0.001), whereas active smoking fell from 17.1% (2007) to 8.7% (2014) and to 5.7% (2019). The overall prevalence of passive smoking inside the household fell from 24.7% to 12.9% and 10.4% (p-value <0.001), whereas the overall prevalence of passive smoking outside the household dropped from 46.3% to 39.4% and 36.3% (p-value <0.001) during the same period. The reduction of the smoking indicators was observed mainly among women than in men. Conclusion.: There is evidence of a sustained reduction in smoking indicators in Peruvian adolescents. Passive smoking outside the household continues to be common, calling for strengthening current tobacco control policies.
MeSH term(s)	Female ; Humans ; Adolescent ; Male ; Tobacco Smoke Pollution ; Peru/epidemiology ; Tobacco Control
Chemical Substances	Tobacco Smoke Pollution
Language	English
Publishing date	2022-09-02
Publishing country	Peru
Document type	Journal Article
ZDB-ID	2120092-0
ISSN	1726-4642 ; 1726-4642
ISSN (online)	1726-4642
ISSN	1726-4642
DOI	10.17843/rpmesp.2022.392.11233
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