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  1. Article ; Online: Confronting the Convective Gray Zone in the Global Configuration of the Met Office Unified Model

    Lorenzo Tomassini / Martin Willett / Alistair Sellar / Adrian Lock / David Walters / Michael Whitall / Claudio Sanchez / Julian Heming / Paul Earnshaw / José M. Rodriguez / Duncan Ackerley / Prince Xavier / Charmaine Franklin / Catherine A. Senior

    Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, Vol 15, Iss 5, Pp n/a-n/a (2023)

    2023  

    Abstract: Abstract In atmospheric models with kilometer‐scale grids the resolution approaches the scale of convection. As a consequence the most energetic eddies in the atmosphere are partially resolved and partially unresolved. The modeling challenge to represent ...

    Abstract Abstract In atmospheric models with kilometer‐scale grids the resolution approaches the scale of convection. As a consequence the most energetic eddies in the atmosphere are partially resolved and partially unresolved. The modeling challenge to represent convection partially explicitly and partially as a subgrid process is called the convective gray zone problem. The gray zone issue has previously been discussed in the context of regional models, but the evolution in regional models is constrained by the lateral boundary conditions. Here we explore the convective gray zone starting from a defined global configuration of the Met Office Unified Model using initialized forecasts and comparing different model formulations to observations. The focus is on convection and turbulence, but some aspects of the model dynamics are also considered. The global model is run at nominal 5 km resolution and thus contributions from both resolved and subgrid turbulent and convective fluxes are non‐negligible. The main conclusion is that in the present assessment, the configurations which include scale‐aware turbulence and a carefully reduced and simplified mass‐flux convection scheme outperform both the configuration with fully parameterized convection as well as a configuration in which the subgrid convection parameterization is switched off completely. The results are more conclusive with regard to convective organization and tropical variability than extratropical predictability. The present study thus endorses the strategy to further develop scale‐aware physics schemes and to pursue an operational implementation of the global 5 km‐resolution model to be used alongside other ensemble forecasts to allow researchers and forecasters to further assess these simulations.
    Keywords kilometer‐scale global atmospheric modeling ; convective gray zone ; convection‐circulation interaction ; atmospheric variability and predictability ; Physical geography ; GB3-5030 ; Oceanography ; GC1-1581
    Subject code 551
    Language English
    Publishing date 2023-05-01T00:00:00Z
    Publisher American Geophysical Union (AGU)
    Document type Article ; Online
    Database BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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  2. Article ; Online: SINGV – the Convective-Scale Numerical Weather Prediction System for Singapore

    Xiang-Yu Huang / Dale Barker / Stuart Webster / Anurag Dipankar / Adrian Lock / Marion Mittermaier / Xiangming Sun / Rachel North / Rob Darvell / Douglas Boyd / Jeff Lo / Jianyu Liu / Bruce Macpherson / Peter Heng / Adam Maycock / Laura Pitcher / Robert Tubbs / Martin McMillan / Sijin Zhang /
    Susanna Hagelin / Aurore Porson / Guiting Song / Becky Beckett / Wee Kiong Cheong / Allison Semple / Chris Gordon

    ASEAN Journal on Science and Technology for Development, Vol 36, Iss 3, Pp 81–90-81–

    2019  Volume 90

    Abstract: Extreme rainfall is one of the primary meteorological hazards in Singapore, as well as elsewhere in the deep tropics, and it can lead to significant local flooding. Since 2013, the Meteorological Service Singapore (MSS) and the United Kingdom Met Office ( ...

    Abstract Extreme rainfall is one of the primary meteorological hazards in Singapore, as well as elsewhere in the deep tropics, and it can lead to significant local flooding. Since 2013, the Meteorological Service Singapore (MSS) and the United Kingdom Met Office (UKMO) have been collaborating to develop a convective-scale Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) system, called SINGV. Its primary aim is to provide improved weather forecasts for Singapore and the surrounding region, with a focus on improved short-range prediction of localized heavy rainfall. This paper provides an overview of the SINGV development, the latest NWP capabilities at MSS and some key results of evaluation. The paper describes science advances relevant to the development of any km-scale NWP suitable for the deep tropics and provides some insights into the impact of local data assimilation and utility of ensemble predictions.
    Keywords convective-scale weather modelling ; atmospheric data assimilation ; ensemble forecasts ; numerical weather prediction systems ; deep tropics ; Technology (General) ; T1-995 ; Science (General) ; Q1-390
    Subject code 333
    Language English
    Publishing date 2019-12-01T00:00:00Z
    Publisher Universitas Gadjah Mada
    Document type Article ; Online
    Database BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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