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  1. Article ; Online: Global estimates of pregnancies at risk of Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax infection in 2020 and changes in risk patterns since 2000.

    Georgia R Gore-Langton / Jorge Cano / Hope Simpson / Andrew Tatem / Natalia Tejedor-Garavito / Adelle Wigley / Alessandra Carioli / Peter Gething / Daniel J Weiss / Daniel Chandramohan / Patrick G T Walker / Matthew E Cairns / R Matthew Chico

    PLOS Global Public Health, Vol 2, Iss 11, p e

    2022  Volume 0001061

    Abstract: Background Women are at risk of severe adverse pregnancy outcomes attributable to Plasmodium spp. infection in malaria-endemic areas. Malaria control efforts since 2000 have aimed to reduce this burden of disease. Methods We used data from the Malaria ... ...

    Abstract Background Women are at risk of severe adverse pregnancy outcomes attributable to Plasmodium spp. infection in malaria-endemic areas. Malaria control efforts since 2000 have aimed to reduce this burden of disease. Methods We used data from the Malaria Atlas Project and WorldPop to calculate global pregnancies at-risk of Plasmodium spp. infection. We categorised pregnancies as occurring in areas of stable and unstable P. falciparum and P. vivax transmission. We further stratified stable endemicity as hypo-endemic, meso-endemic, hyper-endemic, or holo-endemic, and estimated pregnancies at risk in 2000, 2005, 2010, 2015, 2017, and 2020. Findings In 2020, globally 120.4M pregnancies were at risk of P. falciparum, two-thirds (81.0M, 67.3%) were in areas of stable transmission; 85 2M pregnancies were at risk of P. vivax, 93.9% (80.0M) were in areas of stable transmission. An estimated 64.6M pregnancies were in areas with both P. falciparum and P. vivax transmission. The number of pregnancies at risk of each of P. falciparum and P. vivax worldwide decreased between 2000 and 2020, with the exception of sub-Saharan Africa, where the total number of pregnancies at risk of P. falciparum increased from 37 3M in 2000 to 52 4M in 2020. Interpretation Historic investments in malaria control have reduced the number of women at risk of malaria in pregnancy in all endemic regions except sub-Saharan Africa. Population growth in Africa has outpaced reductions in malaria prevalence. Interventions that reduce the risk of malaria in pregnancy are needed as much today as ever.
    Keywords Public aspects of medicine ; RA1-1270
    Language English
    Publishing date 2022-01-01T00:00:00Z
    Publisher Public Library of Science (PLoS)
    Document type Article ; Online
    Database BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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  2. Article ; Online: Predicting Near-Future Built-Settlement Expansion Using Relative Changes in Small Area Populations

    Jeremiah J. Nieves / Maksym Bondarenko / Alessandro Sorichetta / Jessica E. Steele / David Kerr / Alessandra Carioli / Forrest R. Stevens / Andrea E. Gaughan / Andrew J. Tatem

    Remote Sensing, Vol 12, Iss 1545, p

    2020  Volume 1545

    Abstract: Advances in the availability of multi-temporal, remote sensing-derived global built-/human-settlements datasets can now provide globally consistent definitions of “human-settlement” at unprecedented spatial fineness. Yet, these data only provide a time- ... ...

    Abstract Advances in the availability of multi-temporal, remote sensing-derived global built-/human-settlements datasets can now provide globally consistent definitions of “human-settlement” at unprecedented spatial fineness. Yet, these data only provide a time-series of past extents and urban growth/expansion models have not had parallel advances at high-spatial resolution. Here our goal was to present a globally applicable predictive modelling framework, as informed by a short, preceding time-series of built-settlement extents, capable of producing annual, near-future built-settlement extents. To do so, we integrated a random forest, dasymetric redistribution, and autoregressive temporal models with open and globally available subnational data, estimates of built-settlement population, and environmental covariates. Using this approach, we trained the model on a 11 year time-series (2000–2010) of European Space Agency (ESA) Climate Change Initiative (CCI) Land Cover “Urban Areas” class and predicted annual, 100m resolution, binary settlement extents five years beyond the last observations (2011–2015) within varying environmental, urban morphological, and data quality contexts. We found that our model framework performed consistently across all sampled countries and, when compared to time-specific imagery, demonstrated the capacity to capture human-settlement missed by the input time-series and the withheld validation settlement extents. When comparing manually delineated building footprints of small settlements to the modelled extents, we saw that the modelling framework had a 12 percent increase in accuracy compared to withheld validation settlement extents. However, how this framework performs when using different input definitions of “urban” or settlement remains unknown. While this model framework is predictive and not explanatory in nature, it shows that globally available “off-the-shelf” datasets and relative changes in subnational population can be sufficient for accurate prediction of future settlement ...
    Keywords Urban ; growth model ; forecast ; built ; settlement ; machine learning ; Science ; Q
    Subject code 333
    Language English
    Publishing date 2020-05-01T00:00:00Z
    Publisher MDPI AG
    Document type Article ; Online
    Database BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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  3. Article ; Online: Geographical distribution of fertility rates in 70 low-income, lower-middle-income, and upper-middle-income countries, 2010–16

    Carla Pezzulo, PhD / Kristine Nilsen, PhD / Alessandra Carioli, MSc / Natalia Tejedor-Garavito, PhD / Sophie E Hanspal, MSc / Theodor Hilber, BSc / William H M James, PhD / Corrine W Ruktanonchai, PhD / Victor Alegana, PhD / Alessandro Sorichetta, PhD / Adelle S Wigley, MSc / Graeme M Hornby, MSc / Zoe Matthews, ProfPhD / Andrew J Tatem, ProfPhD

    The Lancet Global Health, Vol 9, Iss 6, Pp e802-e

    a subnational analysis of cross-sectional surveys

    2021  Volume 812

    Abstract: Summary: Background: Understanding subnational variation in age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs) and total fertility rates (TFRs), and geographical clustering of high fertility and its determinants in low-income and middle-income countries, is ... ...

    Abstract Summary: Background: Understanding subnational variation in age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs) and total fertility rates (TFRs), and geographical clustering of high fertility and its determinants in low-income and middle-income countries, is increasingly needed for geographical targeting and prioritising of policy. We aimed to identify variation in fertility rates, to describe patterns of key selected fertility determinants in areas of high fertility. Methods: We did a subnational analysis of ASFRs and TFRs from the most recent publicly available and nationally representative cross-sectional Demographic and Health Surveys and Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys collected between 2010 and 2016 for 70 low-income, lower-middle-income, and upper-middle-income countries, across 932 administrative units. We assessed the degree of global spatial autocorrelation by using Moran's I statistic and did a spatial cluster analysis using the Getis-Ord Gi* local statistic to examine the geographical clustering of fertility and key selected fertility determinants. Descriptive analysis was used to investigate the distribution of ASFRs and of selected determinants in each cluster. Findings: TFR varied from below replacement (2·1 children per women) in 36 of the 932 subnational regions (mainly located in India, Myanmar, Colombia, and Armenia), to rates of 8 and higher in 14 subnational regions, located in sub-Saharan Africa and Afghanistan. Areas with high-fertility clusters were mostly associated with areas of low prevalence of women with secondary or higher education, low use of contraception, and high unmet needs for family planning, although exceptions existed. Interpretation: Substantial within-country variation in the distribution of fertility rates highlights the need for tailored programmes and strategies in high-fertility cluster areas to increase the use of contraception and access to secondary education, and to reduce unmet need for family planning. Funding: Wellcome Trust, the UK Foreign, Commonwealth and Development ...
    Keywords Public aspects of medicine ; RA1-1270
    Subject code 336 ; 310
    Language English
    Publishing date 2021-06-01T00:00:00Z
    Publisher Elsevier
    Document type Article ; Online
    Database BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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    Inter-library loan at ZB MED

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