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  1. Article ; Online: Inequality and COVID-19 in Sweden: Relative risks of nine bad life events, by four social gradients, in pandemic vs. prepandemic years.

    Altmejd, Adam / Östergren, Olof / Björkegren, Evelina / Persson, Torsten

    Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America

    2023  Volume 120, Issue 46, Page(s) e2303640120

    Abstract: The COVID-19 pandemic struck societies directly and indirectly, not just challenging population health but disrupting many aspects of life. Different effects of the spreading virus-and the measures to fight it-are reported and discussed in different ... ...

    Abstract The COVID-19 pandemic struck societies directly and indirectly, not just challenging population health but disrupting many aspects of life. Different effects of the spreading virus-and the measures to fight it-are reported and discussed in different scientific fora, with hard-to-compare methods and metrics from different traditions. While the pandemic struck some groups more than others, it is difficult to assess the comprehensive impact on social inequalities. This paper gauges social inequalities using individual-level administrative data for Sweden's entire population. We describe and analyze the relative risks for different social groups in four dimensions-gender, education, income, and world region of birth-to experience three types of COVID-19 incidence, as well as six additional negative life outcomes that reflect general health, access to medical care, and economic strain. During the pandemic, the overall population faced severe morbidity and mortality from COVID-19 and saw higher all-cause mortality, income losses and unemployment risks, as well as reduced access to medical care. These burdens fell more heavily on individuals with low income or education and on immigrants. Although these vulnerable groups experienced larger absolute risks of suffering the direct and indirect consequences of the pandemic, the relative risks in pandemic years (2020 and 2021) were conspicuously similar to those in prepandemic years (2016 to 2019).
    MeSH term(s) Humans ; COVID-19/epidemiology ; Pandemics ; Sweden/epidemiology ; Risk ; Social Class
    Language English
    Publishing date 2023-11-09
    Publishing country United States
    Document type Journal Article
    ZDB-ID 209104-5
    ISSN 1091-6490 ; 0027-8424
    ISSN (online) 1091-6490
    ISSN 0027-8424
    DOI 10.1073/pnas.2303640120
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  2. Article ; Online: Nowcasting COVID-19 Statistics Reported with Delay: A Case-Study of Sweden and the UK.

    Altmejd, Adam / Rocklöv, Joacim / Wallin, Jonas

    International journal of environmental research and public health

    2023  Volume 20, Issue 4

    Abstract: The COVID-19 pandemic has demonstrated the importance of unbiased, real-time statistics of trends in disease events in order to achieve an effective response. Because of reporting delays, real-time statistics frequently underestimate the total number of ... ...

    Abstract The COVID-19 pandemic has demonstrated the importance of unbiased, real-time statistics of trends in disease events in order to achieve an effective response. Because of reporting delays, real-time statistics frequently underestimate the total number of infections, hospitalizations and deaths. When studied by event date, such delays also risk creating an illusion of a downward trend. Here, we describe a statistical methodology for predicting true daily quantities and their uncertainty, estimated using historical reporting delays. The methodology takes into account the observed distribution pattern of the lag. It is derived from the "removal method"-a well-established estimation framework in the field of ecology.
    MeSH term(s) Humans ; COVID-19 ; Pandemics ; Sweden ; Hospitalization ; United Kingdom
    Language English
    Publishing date 2023-02-09
    Publishing country Switzerland
    Document type Journal Article ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
    ZDB-ID 2175195-X
    ISSN 1660-4601 ; 1661-7827
    ISSN (online) 1660-4601
    ISSN 1661-7827
    DOI 10.3390/ijerph20043040
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  3. Article: Nowcasting Covid-19 statistics reported withdelay: a case-study of Sweden

    Altmejd, Adam / Rocklov, Joacim / Wallin, Jonas

    Abstract: The new corona virus disease -- COVID-2019 -- is rapidly spreading through the world. The availability of unbiased timely statistics of trends in disease events are a key to effective responses. But due to reporting delays, the most recently reported ... ...

    Abstract The new corona virus disease -- COVID-2019 -- is rapidly spreading through the world. The availability of unbiased timely statistics of trends in disease events are a key to effective responses. But due to reporting delays, the most recently reported numbers are frequently underestimating of the total number of infections, hospitalizations and deaths creating an illusion of a downward trend. Here we describe a statistical methodology for predicting true daily quantities and their uncertainty, estimated using historical reporting delays. The methodology takes into account the observed distribution pattern of the lag. It is derived from the removal method, a well-established estimation framework in the field of ecology.
    Keywords covid19
    Publisher ArXiv
    Document type Article
    Database COVID19

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  4. Book ; Online: Nowcasting Covid-19 statistics reported withdelay

    Altmejd, Adam / Rocklöv, Joacim / Wallin, Jonas

    a case-study of Sweden

    2020  

    Abstract: The new corona virus disease -- COVID-2019 -- is rapidly spreading through the world. The availability of unbiased timely statistics of trends in disease events are a key to effective responses. But due to reporting delays, the most recently reported ... ...

    Abstract The new corona virus disease -- COVID-2019 -- is rapidly spreading through the world. The availability of unbiased timely statistics of trends in disease events are a key to effective responses. But due to reporting delays, the most recently reported numbers are frequently underestimating of the total number of infections, hospitalizations and deaths creating an illusion of a downward trend. Here we describe a statistical methodology for predicting true daily quantities and their uncertainty, estimated using historical reporting delays. The methodology takes into account the observed distribution pattern of the lag. It is derived from the removal method, a well-established estimation framework in the field of ecology.
    Keywords Quantitative Biology - Populations and Evolution ; Physics - Physics and Society ; covid19
    Publishing date 2020-06-11
    Publishing country us
    Document type Book ; Online
    Database BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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  5. Article ; Online: Predicting the replicability of social science lab experiments.

    Altmejd, Adam / Dreber, Anna / Forsell, Eskil / Huber, Juergen / Imai, Taisuke / Johannesson, Magnus / Kirchler, Michael / Nave, Gideon / Camerer, Colin

    PloS one

    2019  Volume 14, Issue 12, Page(s) e0225826

    Abstract: We measure how accurately replication of experimental results can be predicted by black-box statistical models. With data from four large-scale replication projects in experimental psychology and economics, and techniques from machine learning, we train ... ...

    Abstract We measure how accurately replication of experimental results can be predicted by black-box statistical models. With data from four large-scale replication projects in experimental psychology and economics, and techniques from machine learning, we train predictive models and study which variables drive predictable replication. The models predicts binary replication with a cross-validated accuracy rate of 70% (AUC of 0.77) and estimates of relative effect sizes with a Spearman ρ of 0.38. The accuracy level is similar to market-aggregated beliefs of peer scientists [1, 2]. The predictive power is validated in a pre-registered out of sample test of the outcome of [3], where 71% (AUC of 0.73) of replications are predicted correctly and effect size correlations amount to ρ = 0.25. Basic features such as the sample and effect sizes in original papers, and whether reported effects are single-variable main effects or two-variable interactions, are predictive of successful replication. The models presented in this paper are simple tools to produce cheap, prognostic replicability metrics. These models could be useful in institutionalizing the process of evaluation of new findings and guiding resources to those direct replications that are likely to be most informative.
    MeSH term(s) Algorithms ; Laboratories ; Models, Statistical ; ROC Curve ; Regression Analysis ; Reproducibility of Results ; Research ; Social Sciences
    Language English
    Publishing date 2019-12-05
    Publishing country United States
    Document type Journal Article ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
    ZDB-ID 2267670-3
    ISSN 1932-6203 ; 1932-6203
    ISSN (online) 1932-6203
    ISSN 1932-6203
    DOI 10.1371/journal.pone.0225826
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  6. Article: Using prediction markets to forecast research evaluations.

    Munafo, Marcus R / Pfeiffer, Thomas / Altmejd, Adam / Heikensten, Emma / Almenberg, Johan / Bird, Alexander / Chen, Yiling / Wilson, Brad / Johannesson, Magnus / Dreber, Anna

    Royal Society open science

    2015  Volume 2, Issue 10, Page(s) 150287

    Abstract: The 2014 Research Excellence Framework (REF2014) was conducted to assess the quality of research carried out at higher education institutions in the UK over a 6 year period. However, the process was criticized for being expensive and bureaucratic, and it ...

    Abstract The 2014 Research Excellence Framework (REF2014) was conducted to assess the quality of research carried out at higher education institutions in the UK over a 6 year period. However, the process was criticized for being expensive and bureaucratic, and it was argued that similar information could be obtained more simply from various existing metrics. We were interested in whether a prediction market on the outcome of REF2014 for 33 chemistry departments in the UK would provide information similar to that obtained during the REF2014 process. Prediction markets have become increasingly popular as a means of capturing what is colloquially known as the 'wisdom of crowds', and enable individuals to trade 'bets' on whether a specific outcome will occur or not. These have been shown to be successful at predicting various outcomes in a number of domains (e.g. sport, entertainment and politics), but have rarely been tested against outcomes based on expert judgements such as those that formed the basis of REF2014.
    Language English
    Publishing date 2015-10-28
    Publishing country England
    Document type Journal Article
    ZDB-ID 2787755-3
    ISSN 2054-5703
    ISSN 2054-5703
    DOI 10.1098/rsos.150287
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  7. Article ; Online: Evaluating the replicability of social science experiments in Nature and Science between 2010 and 2015.

    Camerer, Colin F / Dreber, Anna / Holzmeister, Felix / Ho, Teck-Hua / Huber, Jürgen / Johannesson, Magnus / Kirchler, Michael / Nave, Gideon / Nosek, Brian A / Pfeiffer, Thomas / Altmejd, Adam / Buttrick, Nick / Chan, Taizan / Chen, Yiling / Forsell, Eskil / Gampa, Anup / Heikensten, Emma / Hummer, Lily / Imai, Taisuke /
    Isaksson, Siri / Manfredi, Dylan / Rose, Julia / Wagenmakers, Eric-Jan / Wu, Hang

    Nature human behaviour

    2018  Volume 2, Issue 9, Page(s) 637–644

    Abstract: Being able to replicate scientific findings is crucial for scientific ... ...

    Abstract Being able to replicate scientific findings is crucial for scientific progress
    MeSH term(s) Bayes Theorem ; Humans ; Periodicals as Topic/statistics & numerical data ; Reproducibility of Results ; Research/statistics & numerical data ; Sample Size ; Social Sciences/methods ; Social Sciences/statistics & numerical data
    Language English
    Publishing date 2018-08-27
    Publishing country England
    Document type Journal Article ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
    ISSN 2397-3374
    ISSN (online) 2397-3374
    DOI 10.1038/s41562-018-0399-z
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  8. Article ; Online: Evaluating replicability of laboratory experiments in economics.

    Camerer, Colin F / Dreber, Anna / Forsell, Eskil / Ho, Teck-Hua / Huber, Jürgen / Johannesson, Magnus / Kirchler, Michael / Almenberg, Johan / Altmejd, Adam / Chan, Taizan / Heikensten, Emma / Holzmeister, Felix / Imai, Taisuke / Isaksson, Siri / Nave, Gideon / Pfeiffer, Thomas / Razen, Michael / Wu, Hang

    Science (New York, N.Y.)

    2016  Volume 351, Issue 6280, Page(s) 1433–1436

    Abstract: The replicability of some scientific findings has recently been called into question. To contribute data about replicability in economics, we replicated 18 studies published in the American Economic Review and the Quarterly Journal of Economics between ... ...

    Abstract The replicability of some scientific findings has recently been called into question. To contribute data about replicability in economics, we replicated 18 studies published in the American Economic Review and the Quarterly Journal of Economics between 2011 and 2014. All of these replications followed predefined analysis plans that were made publicly available beforehand, and they all have a statistical power of at least 90% to detect the original effect size at the 5% significance level. We found a significant effect in the same direction as in the original study for 11 replications (61%); on average, the replicated effect size is 66% of the original. The replicability rate varies between 67% and 78% for four additional replicability indicators, including a prediction market measure of peer beliefs.
    Language English
    Publishing date 2016-03-25
    Publishing country United States
    Document type Journal Article ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
    ZDB-ID 128410-1
    ISSN 1095-9203 ; 0036-8075
    ISSN (online) 1095-9203
    ISSN 0036-8075
    DOI 10.1126/science.aaf0918
    Database MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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    In stock of ZB MED Cologne/Königswinter

    Zs.A 27: Show issues Location:
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    bis Jg. 1994: Bestellungen von Artikeln über das Online-Bestellformular
    Jg. 1995 - 2021: Lesesall (1.OG)
    ab Jg. 2022: Lesesaal (EG)
    Zs.MG 77: Show issues

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