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  1. Article ; Online: Mathematical epidemiology in a data-rich world.

    Arino, Julien

    Infectious Disease Modelling

    2020  Volume 5, Page(s) 161–188

    Abstract: I discuss the acquisition and use of "background" data in mathematical epidemiology models, advocating a proactive approach to the incorporation of said data. I illustrate various mechanisms for acquiring data, mainly from open data sources. I also ... ...

    Abstract I discuss the acquisition and use of "background" data in mathematical epidemiology models, advocating a proactive approach to the incorporation of said data. I illustrate various mechanisms for acquiring data, mainly from open data sources. I also discuss incorporating this data into models.
    Language English
    Publishing date 2020-01-07
    Publishing country China
    Document type Journal Article
    ZDB-ID 3015225-2
    ISSN 2468-0427 ; 2468-2152
    ISSN (online) 2468-0427
    ISSN 2468-2152
    DOI 10.1016/j.idm.2019.12.008
    Database MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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  2. Book ; Online: Describing, modelling and forecasting the spatial and temporal spread of COVID-19 -- A short review

    Arino, Julien

    2021  

    Abstract: SARS-CoV-2 started propagating worldwide in January 2020 and has now reached virtually all communities on the planet. This short review provides evidence of this spread and documents modelling efforts undertaken to understand and forecast it, including a ...

    Abstract SARS-CoV-2 started propagating worldwide in January 2020 and has now reached virtually all communities on the planet. This short review provides evidence of this spread and documents modelling efforts undertaken to understand and forecast it, including a short section about the new variants that emerged in late 2020.
    Keywords Quantitative Biology - Populations and Evolution
    Publishing date 2021-02-04
    Publishing country us
    Document type Book ; Online
    Database BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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  3. Article ; Online: Effect of Movement on the Early Phase of an Epidemic.

    Arino, Julien / Milliken, Evan

    Bulletin of mathematical biology

    2022  Volume 84, Issue 11, Page(s) 128

    Abstract: The early phase of an epidemic is characterized by a small number of infected individuals, implying that stochastic effects drive the dynamics of the disease. Mathematically, we define the stochastic phase as the time during which the number of infected ... ...

    Abstract The early phase of an epidemic is characterized by a small number of infected individuals, implying that stochastic effects drive the dynamics of the disease. Mathematically, we define the stochastic phase as the time during which the number of infected individuals remains small and positive. A continuous-time Markov chain model of a simple two-patch epidemic is presented. An algorithm for formalizing what is meant by small is presented, and the effect of movement on the duration of the early stochastic phase of an epidemic is studied.
    MeSH term(s) Epidemics ; Humans ; Markov Chains ; Mathematical Concepts ; Models, Biological ; Stochastic Processes
    Language English
    Publishing date 2022-09-23
    Publishing country United States
    Document type Journal Article ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
    ZDB-ID 184905-0
    ISSN 1522-9602 ; 0007-4985 ; 0092-8240
    ISSN (online) 1522-9602
    ISSN 0007-4985 ; 0092-8240
    DOI 10.1007/s11538-022-01077-5
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    In stock of ZB MED Cologne/Königswinter

    Zs.B 754: Show issues Location:
    Je nach Verfügbarkeit (siehe Angabe bei Bestand)
    bis Jg. 2021: Bestellungen von Artikeln über das Online-Bestellformular
    ab Jg. 2022: Lesesaal (EG)

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  4. Article ; Online: Bistability in deterministic and stochastic SLIAR-type models with imperfect and waning vaccine protection.

    Arino, Julien / Milliken, Evan

    Journal of mathematical biology

    2022  Volume 84, Issue 7, Page(s) 61

    Abstract: Various vaccines have been approved for use to combat COVID-19 that offer imperfect immunity and could furthermore wane over time. We analyze the effect of vaccination in an SLIARS model with demography by adding a compartment for vaccinated individuals ... ...

    Abstract Various vaccines have been approved for use to combat COVID-19 that offer imperfect immunity and could furthermore wane over time. We analyze the effect of vaccination in an SLIARS model with demography by adding a compartment for vaccinated individuals and considering disease-induced death, imperfect and waning vaccination protection as well as waning infections-acquired immunity. When analyzed as systems of ordinary differential equations, the model is proven to admit a backward bifurcation. A continuous time Markov chain (CTMC) version of the model is simulated numerically and compared to the results of branching process approximations. While the CTMC model detects the presence of the backward bifurcation, the branching process approximation does not. The special case of an SVIRS model is shown to have the same properties.
    MeSH term(s) COVID-19/epidemiology ; COVID-19/prevention & control ; Humans ; Markov Chains ; Models, Biological ; Vaccination ; Vaccines
    Chemical Substances Vaccines
    Language English
    Publishing date 2022-06-23
    Publishing country Germany
    Document type Journal Article ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
    ZDB-ID 187101-8
    ISSN 1432-1416 ; 0303-6812
    ISSN (online) 1432-1416
    ISSN 0303-6812
    DOI 10.1007/s00285-022-01765-9
    Database MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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    In stock of ZB MED Cologne/Königswinter

    Zs.A 1495: Show issues Location:
    Je nach Verfügbarkeit (siehe Angabe bei Bestand)
    bis Jg. 1994: Bestellungen von Artikeln über das Online-Bestellformular
    Jg. 1995 - 2021: Lesesall (1.OG)
    ab Jg. 2022: Lesesaal (EG)

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  5. Article ; Online: Spatio-temporal spread of infectious pathogens of humans.

    Arino, Julien

    Infectious Disease Modelling

    2017  Volume 2, Issue 2, Page(s) 218–228

    Abstract: Spatio-temporal aspects in the propagation of infectious pathogens of humans are reviewed. Mathematical modelling of these issues ... ...

    Abstract Spatio-temporal aspects in the propagation of infectious pathogens of humans are reviewed. Mathematical modelling of these issues using
    Keywords covid19
    Language English
    Publishing date 2017-05-17
    Publishing country China
    Document type Journal Article ; Review
    ZDB-ID 3015225-2
    ISSN 2468-0427 ; 2468-2152
    ISSN (online) 2468-0427
    ISSN 2468-2152
    DOI 10.1016/j.idm.2017.05.001
    Database MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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  6. Article ; Online: Is SARS-CoV-2 elimination or mitigation best? Regional and disease characteristics determine the recommended strategy

    Martignoni, Maria M. / Arino, Julien / Hurford, Amy

    medRxiv

    Abstract: Public health responses to the COVID-19 pandemic varied across the world. Some countries (e.g., mainland China, New Zealand, and Taiwan) implemented elimination strategies involving strict travel measures and periods of rigorous non-pharmaceutical ... ...

    Abstract Public health responses to the COVID-19 pandemic varied across the world. Some countries (e.g., mainland China, New Zealand, and Taiwan) implemented elimination strategies involving strict travel measures and periods of rigorous non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) in the community, aiming to achieve periods with no disease spread; while others (e.g., many European countries and the United States of America) implemented mitigation strategies involving less strict NPIs for prolonged periods, aiming to limit community spread. Travel measures and community NPIs have high economic and social costs, and there is a need for guidelines that evaluate the appropriateness of an elimination or mitigation strategy in regional contexts. To guide decisions, we identify key criteria and provide indicators and visualizations to help answer each question. Considerations include determining whether disease elimination is: (1) necessary to ensure health care provision; (2) feasible from an epidemiological point of view; and (3) cost effective when considering, in particular, the economic costs of travel measures and treating infections. We discuss our recommendations by considering the regional and economic variability of Canadian provinces and territories, and the epidemiological characteristics of different SARS-CoV-2 variants.
    Keywords covid19
    Language English
    Publishing date 2024-02-07
    Publisher Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press
    Document type Article ; Online
    DOI 10.1101/2024.02.01.24302169
    Database COVID19

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  7. Article ; Online: A simple model for COVID-19.

    Arino, Julien / Portet, Stéphanie

    Infectious Disease Modelling

    2020  Volume 5, Page(s) 309–315

    Abstract: ... ...

    Abstract An
    Keywords covid19
    Language English
    Publishing date 2020-04-28
    Publishing country China
    Document type Journal Article
    ZDB-ID 3015225-2
    ISSN 2468-0427 ; 2468-2152
    ISSN (online) 2468-0427
    ISSN 2468-2152
    DOI 10.1016/j.idm.2020.04.002
    Database MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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  8. Article ; Online: Importation models for travel-related SARS-CoV-2 cases reported in Newfoundland and Labrador during the COVID-19 pandemic

    Mohammadi, Zahra / Cojocaru, Monica / Arino, Julien / Hurford, Amy

    medRxiv

    Abstract: During the COVID-19 pandemic there was substantial variation between countries in the severity of the travel restrictions implemented suggesting a need for better importation models. Data to evaluate the accuracy of importation models is available for ... ...

    Abstract During the COVID-19 pandemic there was substantial variation between countries in the severity of the travel restrictions implemented suggesting a need for better importation models. Data to evaluate the accuracy of importation models is available for the Canadian province of Newfoundland and Labrador (NL; September 2020 to June 2021) as arriving travelers were frequently tested for SARS-CoV-2 and travel-related cases were reported. Travel volume to NL was estimated from flight data, and travel declaration forms completed at entry to Canada, and at entry to NL during the pandemic. We found that during the pandemic travel to NL decreased by 82%, the percentage of travelers arriving from Qu&eacutebec decreased (from 14 to 4%), and from Alberta increased (from 7 to 17%). We derived and validated an epidemiological model predicting the number of travelers testing positive for SARS-CoV-2 after arrival in NL, but found that statistical models with less description of SARS-CoV-2 epidemiology, and with parameters fitted from the validation data more accurately predicted the daily number of travel-related cases reported in NL originating from Canada (R<sup>2</sup> = 0.55, ΔAICc = 137). Our results highlight the importance of testing travelers and reporting travel-related cases as these data are needed for importation models to support public health decisions.
    Keywords covid19
    Language English
    Publishing date 2023-06-12
    Publisher Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press
    Document type Article ; Online
    DOI 10.1101/2023.06.08.23291136
    Database COVID19

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  9. Article: SARS-CoV-2 in Nursing Homes: Analysis of Routine Surveillance Data in Four European Countries.

    Delory, Tristan / Arino, Julien / Haÿ, Paul-Emile / Klotz, Vincent / Boëlle, Pierre-Yves

    Aging and disease

    2023  Volume 14, Issue 2, Page(s) 325–330

    Abstract: Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in nursing homes is poorly documented. Using surveillance data of 228 European private nursing homes, we estimated weekly SARS-CoV-2 incidences among 21,467 residents and 14,371 staff members, compared to that in the general ... ...

    Abstract Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in nursing homes is poorly documented. Using surveillance data of 228 European private nursing homes, we estimated weekly SARS-CoV-2 incidences among 21,467 residents and 14,371 staff members, compared to that in the general population, between August 3, 2020, and February 20, 2021. We studied the outcomes of "episodes of introduction" where one case was first detected and computed attack rates, reproduction ratio (
    Language English
    Publishing date 2023-04-01
    Publishing country United States
    Document type Journal Article
    ZDB-ID 2625789-0
    ISSN 2152-5250
    ISSN 2152-5250
    DOI 10.14336/AD.2022.0820
    Database MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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  10. Article ; Online: Modelling the transmission of dengue, zika and chikungunya: a scoping review protocol.

    Romero-Leiton, Jhoana P / Acharya, Kamal Raj / Parmley, Jane Elizabeth / Arino, Julien / Nasri, Bouchra

    BMJ open

    2023  Volume 13, Issue 9, Page(s) e074385

    Abstract: Introduction: Aedes: Methods and analysis: We will conduct searches in electronic bibliographic databases such as PubMed, MathSciNet and the Web of Science for full-text peer-reviewed articles written in English, French and Spanish. These articles ... ...

    Abstract Introduction: Aedes
    Methods and analysis: We will conduct searches in electronic bibliographic databases such as PubMed, MathSciNet and the Web of Science for full-text peer-reviewed articles written in English, French and Spanish. These articles should use mathematical and statistical modelling frameworks to study dengue, zika and chikungunya, and their cocirculation/coinfection with other diseases, with a publication date between 1 January 2011 and 31 July 2023. Eligible studies should employ deterministic, stochastic or statistical modelling approaches, consider control measures and incorporate parameters' estimation or considering calibration/validation approaches. We will exclude articles focusing on clinical/laboratory experiments or theoretical articles that do not include any case study. Two reviewers specialised in zoonotic diseases and mathematical/statistical modelling will independently screen and retain relevant studies. Data extraction will be performed using a structured form, and the findings of the study will be summarised through classification and descriptive analysis. Three scoping reviews will be published, each focusing on one disease and its cocirculation/co-infection with other diseases.
    Ethics and dissemination: This protocol is exempt from ethics approval because it is carried out on published manuscripts and without the participation of humans and/or animals. The results will be disseminated through peer-reviewed publications and presentations in conferences.
    MeSH term(s) Animals ; Humans ; Zika Virus ; Zika Virus Infection/epidemiology ; Chikungunya Fever/epidemiology ; Zoonoses ; Coinfection ; Dengue/epidemiology ; Review Literature as Topic
    Language English
    Publishing date 2023-09-19
    Publishing country England
    Document type Journal Article ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
    ZDB-ID 2599832-8
    ISSN 2044-6055 ; 2044-6055
    ISSN (online) 2044-6055
    ISSN 2044-6055
    DOI 10.1136/bmjopen-2023-074385
    Database MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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