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  1. Article ; Online: Shifting summer holidays in Spain as an adaptation measure to climate change.

    Garrido-Perez, Jose M / García-Herrera, Ricardo / Barriopedro, David / Ordóñez, Carlos

    The Science of the total environment

    2023  Volume 904, Page(s) 166879

    Abstract: This paper assesses whether moving summer holidays to the warmest period of the year in Spain could be a useful climate change adaptation strategy. While the most popular period for Spanish summer holidays has traditionally been August, we illustrate ... ...

    Abstract This paper assesses whether moving summer holidays to the warmest period of the year in Spain could be a useful climate change adaptation strategy. While the most popular period for Spanish summer holidays has traditionally been August, we illustrate that the second half of July is the hottest period of the year and when the negative effects of high temperatures are most pronounced. If the holiday period in the second fortnight of August was moved to the second fortnight of July, some of the associated impacts would be mitigated due to the reduced anthropogenic activity during non-working days. In particular, we find a significant reduction in the annual peak of labour productivity loss (~25 %) and, to a lesser extent, of electricity demand and near-surface ozone concentrations (~3-4 %). Finally, we also show that global warming could lead to enhanced differences between both fortnights (even with no change in the seasonal cycle of temperature) because of the non-linear relationships between temperature and its impacts. Therefore, the positive effect of shifting holidays would be even larger in the coming future.
    Language English
    Publishing date 2023-09-08
    Publishing country Netherlands
    Document type Journal Article
    ZDB-ID 121506-1
    ISSN 1879-1026 ; 0048-9697
    ISSN (online) 1879-1026
    ISSN 0048-9697
    DOI 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.166879
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  2. Article ; Online: Selection of optimal proxy locations for temperature field reconstructions using evolutionary algorithms.

    Jaume-Santero, Fernando / Barriopedro, David / García-Herrera, Ricardo / Calvo, Natalia / Salcedo-Sanz, Sancho

    Scientific reports

    2020  Volume 10, Issue 1, Page(s) 7900

    Abstract: In the Era of exponential data generation, increasing the number of paleoclimate records to improve climate field reconstructions might not always be the best strategy. By using pseudo-proxies from different model ensembles, we show how biologically- ... ...

    Abstract In the Era of exponential data generation, increasing the number of paleoclimate records to improve climate field reconstructions might not always be the best strategy. By using pseudo-proxies from different model ensembles, we show how biologically-inspired artificial intelligence can be coupled with different reconstruction methods to minimize the spatial bias induced by the non-homogeneous distribution of available proxies. The results indicate that small subsets of records situated over representative locations can outperform the reconstruction skill of the full proxy network, even in more realistic pseudo-proxy experiments and observational datasets. These locations highlight the importance of high-latitude regions and major teleconnection areas to reconstruct annual global temperature fields and their responses to external forcings and internal variability. However, low frequency temperature variations such as the transition between the Medieval Climate Anomaly and the Little Ice Age are better resolved by records situated at lower latitudes. According to our idealized experiments a careful selection of proxy locations should be performed depending on the targeted time scale of the reconstructed field.
    Language English
    Publishing date 2020-05-13
    Publishing country England
    Document type Journal Article ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
    ZDB-ID 2615211-3
    ISSN 2045-2322 ; 2045-2322
    ISSN (online) 2045-2322
    ISSN 2045-2322
    DOI 10.1038/s41598-020-64459-6
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  3. Article: Blocking representation in the ERA-Interim driven EURO-CORDEX RCMs.

    Jury, Martin Wolfgang / Herrera, Sixto / Gutiérrez, José Manuel / Barriopedro, David

    Climate dynamics

    2018  Volume 52, Issue 5, Page(s) 3291–3306

    Abstract: While Regional Climate Models (RCMs) have been shown to yield improved simulations compared to General Circulation Model (GCM), their representation of large-scale phenomena like atmospheric blocking has been hardly addressed. Here, we evaluate the ... ...

    Abstract While Regional Climate Models (RCMs) have been shown to yield improved simulations compared to General Circulation Model (GCM), their representation of large-scale phenomena like atmospheric blocking has been hardly addressed. Here, we evaluate the ability of RCMs to simulate blocking situations present in their reanalysis driving data and analyse the associated impacts on anomalies and biases of European 2-m air temperature (TAS) and precipitation rate (PR). Five RCM runs stem from the EURO-CORDEX ensemble while three RCMs are WRF models with different nudging realizations, all of them driven by ERA-Interim for the period 1981-2010. The detected blocking systems are allocated to three sectors of the Euro-Atlantic region, allowing for a characterization of distinctive blocking-related TAS and PR anomalies. Our results indicate some misrepresentation of atmospheric blocking over the EURO-CORDEX domain, as compared to the driving reanalysis. Most of the RCMs showed fewer blocks than the driving data, while the blocking misdetection was negligible for RCMs strongly conditioned to the driving data. A higher resolution of the RCMs did not improve the representation of atmospheric blocking. However, all RCMs are able to reproduce the basic anomaly structure of TAS and PR connected to blocking. Moreover, the associated anomalies do not change substantially after correcting for the misrepresentation of blocking in RCMs. The overall model bias is mainly determined by pattern biases in the representations of surface parameters during non-blocking situations. Biases in blocking detections tend to have a secondary influence in the overall bias due to compensatory effects of missed blockings and non-blockings. However, they can lead to measurable effects in the presence of a strong blocking underestimation.
    Language English
    Publishing date 2018-07-30
    Publishing country Germany
    Document type Journal Article
    ZDB-ID 1471747-5
    ISSN 1432-0894 ; 0930-7575
    ISSN (online) 1432-0894
    ISSN 0930-7575
    DOI 10.1007/s00382-018-4335-8
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  4. Article: Application of blocking diagnosis methods to General Circulation Models. Part I: a novel detection scheme

    Barriopedro, D / García-Herrera, R / Trigo, R. M

    Climate dynamics. 2010 Dec., v. 35, no. 7-8

    2010  

    Abstract: This paper aims to provide a new blocking definition with applicability to observations and model simulations. An updated review of previous blocking detection indices is provided and some of their implications and caveats discussed. A novel blocking ... ...

    Abstract This paper aims to provide a new blocking definition with applicability to observations and model simulations. An updated review of previous blocking detection indices is provided and some of their implications and caveats discussed. A novel blocking index is proposed by reconciling two traditional approaches based on anomaly and absolute flows. Blocks are considered from a complementary perspective as a signature in the anomalous height field capable of reversing the meridional jet-based height gradient in the total flow. The method succeeds in identifying 2-D persistent anomalies associated to a weather regime in the total flow with blockage of the westerlies. The new index accounts for the duration, intensity, extension, propagation, and spatial structure of a blocking event. In spite of its increased complexity, the detection efficiency of the method is improved without hampering the computational time. Furthermore, some misleading identification problems and artificial assumptions resulting from previous single blocking indices are avoided with the new approach. The characteristics of blocking for 40 years of reanalysis (1950-1989) over the Northern Hemisphere are described from the perspective of the new definition and compared to those resulting from two standard blocking indices and different critical thresholds. As compared to single approaches, the novel index shows a better agreement with reported proxies of blocking activity, namely climatological regions of simultaneous wave amplification and maximum band-pass filtered height standard deviation. An additional asset of the method is its adaptability to different data sets. As critical thresholds are specific of the data set employed, the method is useful for observations and model simulations of different resolutions, temporal lengths and time variant basic states, optimizing its value as a tool for model validation. Special attention has been paid on the devise of an objective scheme easily applicable to General Circulation Models where observational thresholds may be unsuitable due to the presence of model bias. Part II of this study deals with a specific implementation of this novel method to simulations of the ECHO-G global climate model.
    Keywords climate change ; General Circulation Models
    Language English
    Dates of publication 2010-12
    Size p. 1373-1391.
    Publisher Springer-Verlag
    Publishing place Berlin/Heidelberg
    Document type Article
    ZDB-ID 1471747-5
    ISSN 1432-0894 ; 0930-7575
    ISSN (online) 1432-0894
    ISSN 0930-7575
    DOI 10.1007/s00382-010-0767-5
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  5. Article ; Online: Air stagnation in Europe: Spatiotemporal variability and impact on air quality.

    Garrido-Perez, Jose M / Ordóñez, Carlos / García-Herrera, Ricardo / Barriopedro, David

    The Science of the total environment

    2018  Volume 645, Page(s) 1238–1252

    Abstract: This paper characterizes the spatiotemporal variability of air stagnation over the Euro-Mediterranean area for the 1979-2016 period by using a simplified air stagnation index (ASI) based on daily precipitation as well as near-surface and upper wind speed ...

    Abstract This paper characterizes the spatiotemporal variability of air stagnation over the Euro-Mediterranean area for the 1979-2016 period by using a simplified air stagnation index (ASI) based on daily precipitation as well as near-surface and upper wind speed data. We have also undertaken the first comparison of stagnation as derived from meteorological reanalysis and observations, finding a reasonably good agreement between both datasets. The main differences arise from the surface wind speed, as this field depends on the local setting of the observational sites and imperfect parameterizations within the reanalysis model. Since air stagnation has considerable spatial heterogeneity over the region, we have regionalized the monthly frequency of stagnant days, resulting five regions with consistent temporal patterns: Scandinavia (SCAN), Northern-Europe (NEU), Central-Europe (CEU), South-West (SW) and South-East (SE). The northern regions (SCAN and NEU), which are affected by moderately strong near-surface winds and ample precipitation, present low frequency and temporal variability in stagnation compared to the southern regions (SW and SE). The winters and summers with the highest stagnation frequency often concur with positive 500 hPa geopotential height anomalies over the regions, with the exception of negative anomalies and a displacement of the extratropical jet to the south in the case of SCAN and NEU during winter. Air stagnation exerts a clear influence on air quality (AQ), with anomalies above 10% for summer ozone (O
    Language English
    Publishing date 2018-07-24
    Publishing country Netherlands
    Document type Journal Article
    ZDB-ID 121506-1
    ISSN 1879-1026 ; 0048-9697
    ISSN (online) 1879-1026
    ISSN 0048-9697
    DOI 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.07.238
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    In stock of ZB MED Cologne/Königswinter

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  6. Book ; Online: Linking air stagnation in Europe with the synoptic- to large-scale atmospheric circulation

    Maddison, Jacob W. / Abalos, Marta / Barriopedro, David / García-Herrera, Ricardo / Garrido-Perez, Jose M. / Ordóñez, Carlos

    eISSN: 2698-4016

    2021  

    Abstract: The build-up of pollutants to harmful levels can occur when meteorological conditions favour their production or accumulation near the surface. Such conditions can arise when a region experiences air stagnation. The link between European air stagnation, ... ...

    Abstract The build-up of pollutants to harmful levels can occur when meteorological conditions favour their production or accumulation near the surface. Such conditions can arise when a region experiences air stagnation. The link between European air stagnation, air pollution and the synoptic- to large-scale circulation is investigated in this article across all seasons and the 1979–2018 period. Dynamical indices identifying atmospheric blocking, Rossby wave breaking, subtropical ridges, and the North Atlantic eddy-driven and subtropical jets are used to describe the synoptic- to large-scale circulation as predictors in statistical models of air stagnation and pollutant variability. It is found that the large-scale circulation can explain approximately 60 % of the variance in monthly air stagnation, ozone and wintertime particulate matter (PM) in five distinct regions within Europe. The variance explained by the model does not vary strongly across regions and seasons, apart from for PM when the skill is highest in winter. However, the dynamical indices most related to air stagnation do depend on region and season. The blocking and Rossby wave breaking predictors tend to be the most important for describing air stagnation and pollutant variability in northern regions, whereas ridges and the subtropical jet are more important to the south. The demonstrated correspondence between air stagnation, pollution and the large-scale circulation can be used to assess the representation of stagnation in climate models, which is key for understanding how air stagnation and its associated climatic impacts may change in the future.
    Subject code 551 ; 333
    Language English
    Publishing date 2021-08-03
    Publishing country de
    Document type Book ; Online
    Database BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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  7. Book ; Online: Linking air stagnation in Europe with the large-scale atmospheric circulation

    Maddison, Jacob W. / Abalos, Marta / Barriopedro, David / García-Herrera, Ricardo / Garrido-Perez, Jose M. / Ordóñez, Carlos

    eISSN: 2698-4016

    2021  

    Abstract: The build-up of pollutants to harmful levels can occur when meteorological conditions favour their production or accumulation near the surface. Previous studies have shown that such conditions are often associated with air stagnation. Understanding the ... ...

    Abstract The build-up of pollutants to harmful levels can occur when meteorological conditions favour their production or accumulation near the surface. Previous studies have shown that such conditions are often associated with air stagnation. Understanding the development of stagnant conditions is therefore crucial for studying poor air quality. The link between European air stagnation and the large-scale circulation is investigated in this article across all seasons and the 1979–2018 period. Dynamical based indices identifying atmospheric blocking, Rossby wave breaking, subtropical ridges, and the North Atlantic eddy-driven and subtropical jets are used to describe the large-scale circulation as predictors in a statistical model of air stagnation variability. It is found that the large-scale circulation can explain approximately 60 % of the variance in monthly air stagnation in five distinct regions within Europe. The variance explained by the model does not vary strongly across regions and seasons. However, the dynamical indices most related to air stagnation do depend on region and season. The blocking and Rossby wave breaking predictors tend to be the most important for describing air stagnation variability in northern regions whereas ridges and the subtropical jet are more important to the south. The demonstrated correspondence between air stagnation and the large-scale circulation can be used to assess the representation of stagnation in climate models, which is key for understanding how air quality and its associated health risks may change in the future.
    Subject code 551
    Language English
    Publishing date 2021-01-27
    Publishing country de
    Document type Book ; Online
    Database BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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  8. Article: Application of blocking diagnosis methods to General Circulation Models. Part II: model simulations

    Barriopedro, D / García-Herrera, R / González-Rouco, J. F / Trigo, R. M

    Climate dynamics. 2010 Dec., v. 35, no. 7-8

    2010  

    Abstract: A previously defined automatic method is applied to reanalysis and present-day (1950-1989) forced simulations of the ECHO-G model in order to assess its performance in reproducing atmospheric blocking in the Northern Hemisphere. Unlike previous ... ...

    Abstract A previously defined automatic method is applied to reanalysis and present-day (1950-1989) forced simulations of the ECHO-G model in order to assess its performance in reproducing atmospheric blocking in the Northern Hemisphere. Unlike previous methodologies, critical parameters and thresholds to estimate blocking occurrence in the model are not calibrated with an observed reference, but objectively derived from the simulated climatology. The choice of model dependent parameters allows for an objective definition of blocking and corrects for some intrinsic model bias, the difference between model and observed thresholds providing a measure of systematic errors in the model. The model captures reasonably the main blocking features (location, amplitude, annual cycle and persistence) found in observations, but reveals a relative southward shift of Eurasian blocks and an overall underestimation of blocking activity, especially over the Euro-Atlantic sector. Blocking underestimation mostly arises from the model inability to generate long persistent blocks with the observed frequency. This error is mainly attributed to a bias in the basic state. The bias pattern consists of excessive zonal winds over the Euro-Atlantic sector and a southward shift at the exit zone of the jet stream extending into in the Eurasian continent, that are more prominent in cold and warm seasons and account for much of Euro-Atlantic and Eurasian blocking errors, respectively. It is shown that other widely used blocking indices or empirical observational thresholds may not give a proper account of the lack of realism in the model as compared with the proposed method. This suggests that in addition to blocking changes that could be ascribed to natural variability processes or climate change signals in the simulated climate, attention should be paid to significant departures in the diagnosis of phenomena that can also arise from an inappropriate adaptation of detection methods to the climate of the model.
    Keywords General Circulation Models ; climate change
    Language English
    Dates of publication 2010-12
    Size p. 1393-1409.
    Publisher Springer-Verlag
    Publishing place Berlin/Heidelberg
    Document type Article
    ZDB-ID 1471747-5
    ISSN 1432-0894 ; 0930-7575
    ISSN (online) 1432-0894
    ISSN 0930-7575
    DOI 10.1007/s00382-010-0766-6
    Database NAL-Catalogue (AGRICOLA)

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  9. Book ; Online: Analysis, Characterization, Prediction and Attribution of Extreme Atmospheric Events with Machine Learning

    Salcedo-Sanz, Sancho / Pérez-Aracil, Jorge / Ascenso, Guido / Del Ser, Javier / Casillas-Pérez, David / Kadow, Christopher / Fister, Dusan / Barriopedro, David / García-Herrera, Ricardo / Restelli, Marcello / Giuliani, Mateo / Castelletti, Andrea

    a Review

    2022  

    Abstract: Atmospheric Extreme Events (EEs) cause severe damages to human societies and ecosystems. The frequency and intensity of EEs and other associated events are increasing in the current climate change and global warming risk. The accurate prediction, ... ...

    Abstract Atmospheric Extreme Events (EEs) cause severe damages to human societies and ecosystems. The frequency and intensity of EEs and other associated events are increasing in the current climate change and global warming risk. The accurate prediction, characterization, and attribution of atmospheric EEs is therefore a key research field, in which many groups are currently working by applying different methodologies and computational tools. Machine Learning (ML) methods have arisen in the last years as powerful techniques to tackle many of the problems related to atmospheric EEs. This paper reviews the ML algorithms applied to the analysis, characterization, prediction, and attribution of the most important atmospheric EEs. A summary of the most used ML techniques in this area, and a comprehensive critical review of literature related to ML in EEs, are provided. A number of examples is discussed and perspectives and outlooks on the field are drawn.

    Comment: 93 pages, 18 figures, under review
    Keywords Computer Science - Machine Learning ; Computer Science - Neural and Evolutionary Computing ; Physics - Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics ; Physics - Physics and Society ; 68T01 ; 62P12 (primary) ; 68T05 ; 68T07 ; (secondary) ; I.2 ; I.5
    Subject code 306
    Publishing date 2022-06-03
    Publishing country us
    Document type Book ; Online
    Database BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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  10. Article: Blocking and its Response to Climate Change.

    Woollings, Tim / Barriopedro, David / Methven, John / Son, Seok-Woo / Martius, Olivia / Harvey, Ben / Sillmann, Jana / Lupo, Anthony R / Seneviratne, Sonia

    Current climate change reports

    2018  Volume 4, Issue 3, Page(s) 287–300

    Abstract: Purpose of review: Atmospheric blocking events represent some of the most high-impact weather patterns in the mid-latitudes, yet they have often been a cause for concern in future climate projections. There has been low confidence in predicted future ... ...

    Abstract Purpose of review: Atmospheric blocking events represent some of the most high-impact weather patterns in the mid-latitudes, yet they have often been a cause for concern in future climate projections. There has been low confidence in predicted future changes in blocking, despite relatively good agreement between climate models on a decline in blocking. This is due to the lack of a comprehensive theory of blocking and a pervasive underestimation of blocking occurrence by models. This paper reviews the state of knowledge regarding blocking under climate change, with the aim of providing an overview for those working in related fields.
    Recent findings: Several avenues have been identified by which blocking can be improved in numerical models, though a fully reliable simulation remains elusive (at least, beyond a few days lead time). Models are therefore starting to provide some useful information on how blocking and its impacts may change in the future, although deeper understanding of the processes at play will be needed to increase confidence in model projections. There are still major uncertainties regarding the processes most important to the onset, maintenance and decay of blocking and advances in our understanding of atmospheric dynamics, for example in the role of diabatic processes, continue to inform the modelling and prediction efforts.
    Summary: The term 'blocking' covers a diverse array of synoptic patterns, and hence a bewildering range of indices has been developed to identify events. Results are hence not considered fully trustworthy until they have been found using several different methods. Examples of such robust results are the underestimation of blocking by models, and an overall decline in future occurrence, albeit with a complex regional and seasonal variation. In contrast, hemispheric trends in blocking over the recent historical period are not supported by different methods, and natural variability will likely dominate regional variations over the next few decades.
    Language English
    Publishing date 2018-07-20
    Publishing country Switzerland
    Document type Journal Article ; Review
    ISSN 2198-6061
    ISSN 2198-6061
    DOI 10.1007/s40641-018-0108-z
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