LIVIVO - The Search Portal for Life Sciences

zur deutschen Oberfläche wechseln
Advanced search

Search results

Result 1 - 10 of total 12

Search options

  1. Article ; Online: [No title information]

    Bekker-Nielsen Dunbar, M

    Infectious Disease Modelling

    2023  Volume 9, Issue 1, Page(s) 185–194

    Title translation Transmission matrices used in epidemiologic modelling.
    Language English
    Publishing date 2023-12-04
    Publishing country China
    Document type Journal Article ; Review
    ZDB-ID 3015225-2
    ISSN 2468-0427 ; 2468-2152
    ISSN (online) 2468-0427
    ISSN 2468-2152
    DOI 10.1016/j.idm.2023.11.009
    Database MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

    More links

    Kategorien

  2. Article ; Online: The COVID-19 vaccination campaign in Switzerland and its impact on disease spread.

    Bekker-Nielsen Dunbar, M / Held, L

    Epidemics

    2024  Volume 47, Page(s) 100745

    Abstract: We analyse infectious disease case surveillance data to estimate COVID-19 spread and gain an understanding of the impact of introducing vaccines to counter the disease in Switzerland. The data used in this work is extensive and detailed and includes ... ...

    Abstract We analyse infectious disease case surveillance data to estimate COVID-19 spread and gain an understanding of the impact of introducing vaccines to counter the disease in Switzerland. The data used in this work is extensive and detailed and includes information on weekly number of cases and vaccination rates by age and region. Our approach takes into account waning immunity. The statistical analysis allows us to determine the effects of choosing alternative vaccination strategies. Our results indicate greater uptake of vaccine would have led to fewer cases with a particularly large effect on undervaccinated regions. An alternative distribution scheme not targeting specific age groups also leads to fewer cases overall but could lead to more cases among the elderly (a potentially vulnerable population) during the early stage of prophylaxis rollout.
    Language English
    Publishing date 2024-02-20
    Publishing country Netherlands
    Document type Journal Article
    ZDB-ID 2467993-8
    ISSN 1878-0067 ; 1755-4365
    ISSN (online) 1878-0067
    ISSN 1755-4365
    DOI 10.1016/j.epidem.2024.100745
    Database MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

    More links

    Kategorien

  3. Article: Assessing the effect of school closures on the spread of COVID-19 in Zurich.

    Bekker-Nielsen Dunbar, Maria / Hofmann, Felix / Held, Leonhard

    Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A, (Statistics in Society)

    2022  Volume 185, Issue Suppl 1, Page(s) S131–S142

    Abstract: The effect of school closure on the spread of COVID-19 has been discussed intensively in the literature and the news. To capture the interdependencies between children and adults, we consider daily age-stratified incidence data and contact patterns ... ...

    Abstract The effect of school closure on the spread of COVID-19 has been discussed intensively in the literature and the news. To capture the interdependencies between children and adults, we consider daily age-stratified incidence data and contact patterns between age groups which change over time to reflect social distancing policy indicators. We fit a multivariate time-series endemic-epidemic model to such data from the Canton of Zurich, Switzerland and use the model to predict the age-specific incidence in a counterfactual approach (with and without school closures). The results indicate a 17% median increase of incidence in the youngest age group (0-14 year olds), whereas the relative increase in the other age groups drops to values between 2% and 3%. We argue that our approach is more informative to policy makers than summarising the effect of school closures with time-dependent effective reproduction numbers, which are difficult to estimate due to the sparsity of incidence counts within the relevant age groups.
    Language English
    Publishing date 2022-12-11
    Publishing country England
    Document type Journal Article
    ZDB-ID 1490715-X
    ISSN 1467-985X ; 0964-1998 ; 0035-9238
    ISSN (online) 1467-985X
    ISSN 0964-1998 ; 0035-9238
    DOI 10.1111/rssa.12910
    Database MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

    More links

    Kategorien

  4. Article: Session 3 of the RSS Special Topic Meeting on Covid-19 Transmission: Replies to the discussion.

    Bekker-Nielsen Dunbar, Maria / Hofmann, Felix / Held, Leonhard

    Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A, (Statistics in Society)

    2022  Volume 185, Issue Suppl 1, Page(s) S158–S164

    Language English
    Publishing date 2022-12-11
    Publishing country England
    Document type Journal Article
    ZDB-ID 1490715-X
    ISSN 1467-985X ; 0964-1998 ; 0035-9238
    ISSN (online) 1467-985X
    ISSN 0964-1998 ; 0035-9238
    DOI 10.1111/rssa.12985
    Database MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

    More links

    Kategorien

  5. Article ; Online: Endemic-epidemic modelling of school closure to prevent spread of COVID-19 in Switzerland

    Bekker-Nielsen Dunbar, Maria / Hofmann, Felix / Meyer, Sebastian / Held, Leonhard

    medRxiv

    Abstract: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic disrupted daily life and changes to routines were made in accordance with public health regulations. In 2020, non-pharmaceutical interventions were put in place to reduce exposure to and spread of the ... ...

    Abstract The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic disrupted daily life and changes to routines were made in accordance with public health regulations. In 2020, non-pharmaceutical interventions were put in place to reduce exposure to and spread of the disease. The goal of this work was to quantify the effect of school closure during the first year of COVID-19 pandemic in Switzerland. This allowed us to determine the usefulness of school closures as a pandemic countermeasure for emerging coronaviruses in the absence of pharmaceutical interventions. The use of multivariate endemic-epidemic modelling enabled us to analyse disease spread between age groups which we believe is a necessary inclusion in any model seeking to achieve our goal. Sophisticated time-varying contact matrices encapsulating four different contact settings were included in our complex statistical modelling approach to reflect the amount of school closure in place on a given day. Using the model, we projected case counts under various transmission scenarios (driven by implemented social distancing policies). We compared these counterfactual scenarios against the true levels of social distancing policies implemented, where schools closed in the spring and reopened in the autumn. We found that if schools had been kept open, the vast majority of additional cases would be expected among primary school-aged children with a small fraction of cases percolating into other age groups following the contact matrix structure. Under this scenario where schools were kept open, the cases were highly concentrated among the youngest age group. In the scenario where schools had remained closed, most reduction would also be expected in the lowest age group with less effects seen in other groups.
    Keywords covid19
    Language English
    Publishing date 2023-03-21
    Publisher Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press
    Document type Article ; Online
    DOI 10.1101/2023.03.21.23287519
    Database COVID19

    Kategorien

  6. Article: Modelling the effect of a border closure between Switzerland and Italy on the spatiotemporal spread of COVID-19 in Switzerland.

    Grimée, Mathilde / Bekker-Nielsen Dunbar, Maria / Hofmann, Felix / Held, Leonhard

    Spatial statistics

    2021  Volume 49, Page(s) 100552

    Abstract: We present an approach to extend the endemic-epidemic (EE) modelling framework for the analysis of infectious disease data. In its spatiotemporal formulation, spatial dependencies have originally been captured by static neighbourhood matrices. These ... ...

    Abstract We present an approach to extend the endemic-epidemic (EE) modelling framework for the analysis of infectious disease data. In its spatiotemporal formulation, spatial dependencies have originally been captured by static neighbourhood matrices. These weight matrices are adjusted over time to reflect changes in spatial connectivity between geographical units. We illustrate this extension by modelling the spread of COVID-19 disease between Swiss and bordering Italian regions in the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. The spatial weights are adjusted with data describing the daily changes in population mobility patterns, and indicators of border closures describing the state of travel restrictions since the beginning of the pandemic. These time-dependent weights are used to fit an EE model to the region-stratified time series of new COVID-19 cases. We then adjust the weight matrices to reflect two counterfactual scenarios of border closures and draw counterfactual predictions based on these, to retrospectively assess the usefulness of border closures. Predictions based on a scenario where no closure of the Swiss-Italian border occurred increased the number of cumulative cases in Switzerland by a factor of 2.7 (10th to 90th percentile: 2.2 to 3.6) over the study period. Conversely, a closure of the Swiss-Italian border two weeks earlier than implemented would have resulted in only a 12% (8% to 18%) decrease in the number of cases and merely delayed the epidemic spread by a couple of weeks. Our study provides useful insight into modelling the effect of epidemic countermeasures on the spatiotemporal spread of COVID-19.
    Language English
    Publishing date 2021-11-10
    Publishing country Netherlands
    Document type Journal Article
    ISSN 2211-6753
    ISSN 2211-6753
    DOI 10.1016/j.spasta.2021.100552
    Database MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

    More links

    Kategorien

  7. Article ; Online: Modelling the effect of a border closure between Switzerland and Italy on the spatiotemporal spread of COVID-19 in Switzerland

    Grimée, Mathilde / Bekker-Nielsen Dunbar, Maria / Hofmann, Felix / Held, Leonhard

    medRxiv

    Abstract: We present an approach to extend the Endemic-Epidemic (EE) modelling framework for the analysis of infectious disease data. In its spatiotemporal application, spatial dependencies have originally been captured by a power law applied to static ... ...

    Abstract We present an approach to extend the Endemic-Epidemic (EE) modelling framework for the analysis of infectious disease data. In its spatiotemporal application, spatial dependencies have originally been captured by a power law applied to static neighbourhood matrices. We propose to adjust these weight matrices over time to reflect changes in spatial connectivity between geographical units. We illustrate this extension by modelling the spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) between Swiss and bordering Italian regions in the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. We adjust the spatial weights with data describing the daily changes in population mobility patterns, and indicators of border closures describing the state of travel restrictions since the beginning of the pandemic. We use these time-dependent weights to fit an EE model to the region-stratified time series of new COVID-19 cases. We then adjust the weight matrices to reflect two counterfactual scenarios of border closures and draw counterfactual predictions based on these, to retrospectively assess the usefulness of border closures. We observed that predictions based on a scenario where no closure of the Swiss-Italian border occurred, yielded double the number of cumulative cases over the study period. Conversely, a closure of the Swiss-Italian border two weeks earlier than implemented, would have only marginally reduced the number of cases and merely delayed the epidemic spread by a couple weeks. Despite limitations in the current study, we believe it provides useful insight into modelling the effect of epidemic countermeasures on the spatiotemporal spread of COVID-19.
    Keywords covid19
    Language English
    Publishing date 2021-05-20
    Publisher Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press
    Document type Article ; Online
    DOI 10.1101/2021.05.19.21257329
    Database COVID19

    Kategorien

  8. Article ; Online: Serotonin and Neuropeptides in Blood From Episodic and Chronic Migraine and Cluster Headache Patients in Case-Control and Case-Crossover Settings: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

    Frederiksen, Simona D / Bekker-Nielsen Dunbar, Maria / Snoer, Agneta H / Deen, Marie / Edvinsson, Lars

    Headache

    2020  Volume 60, Issue 6, Page(s) 1132–1164

    Abstract: Objective: The aim of this systematic review and meta-analysis (SR-MA) was to identify signaling molecule profiles and blood-derived biomarkers in migraine and cluster headache (CH) patients.: Background: Currently no migraine and CH valid biomarkers ...

    Abstract Objective: The aim of this systematic review and meta-analysis (SR-MA) was to identify signaling molecule profiles and blood-derived biomarkers in migraine and cluster headache (CH) patients.
    Background: Currently no migraine and CH valid biomarkers are available. Blood tests based on biomarker profiles have been used to gather information about the nervous system. Such tests have not yet been established within the primary headache field.
    Methods: Case-control and case-crossover studies investigating whole blood, plasma, and serum were identified worldwide. The qualitative synthesis focused on 9 signaling molecules (serotonin [5-HT], calcitonin gene-related peptide [CGRP], endothelin-1 [ET-1], neurokinin A, neurokinin B, neuropeptide Y, pituitary adenylate cyclase-activating peptide 38 [PACAP-38], substance P (SP), and vasoactive intestinal peptide) and the quantitative synthesis on 5-HT and CGRP (≥5 comparisons available). The meta-analysis was conducted using standard and 3-level random effect models.
    Results: Fifty-four eligible studies were identified (87.0% migraine, 9.3% CH, 3.7% migraine, and CH), and 2768 headache patients and 1165 controls included. Comparable fluctuations of 5-HT, CGRP, ET-1, PACAP-38, and SP in blood were generally observed between migraine and CH. Significant findings were observed for some subgroups and strata, for example, higher interictal and ictal 5-HT venous blood levels (ratio of means = 1.32, 95% CI: 1.08; 1.61; ratio of means = 1.23, 95% CI: 1.01; 1.49) in episodic migraine with aura with a female-dominated case group, higher interictal CGRP blood levels in episodic migraine (ratio of means = 1.63, 95% CI: 1.18; 2.26), and chronic migraine (ratio of means = 1.89, 95% CI: 1.33; 2.68), and higher ictal CGRP blood levels (ratio of means = 1.35, 95% CI: 1.09; 1.68) in episodic migraine were observed. In most subgroups, the quantitative synthesis revealed a high degree of heterogeneity between studies in part explained by the blood sampling site, specimen source, blood specimen, and sex distribution. Other potential confounders were age, aura, study quality, menstrual cycle, and methodology (eg, storage temperature).
    Conclusions: Potential migraine and CH signaling molecule profiles and biomarkers were revealed. Nevertheless, the high degree of heterogeneity between studies impedes identification of valid biomarkers but allowed us to assess the presence of confounders. Consideration of the potential confounders identified in this SR-MA might be of importance in the experimental planning of future studies. This consideration could be incorporated through establishment of specific guidelines.
    Language English
    Publishing date 2020-04-15
    Publishing country United States
    Document type Journal Article
    ZDB-ID 410130-3
    ISSN 1526-4610 ; 0017-8748
    ISSN (online) 1526-4610
    ISSN 0017-8748
    DOI 10.1111/head.13802
    Database MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

    More links

    Kategorien

  9. Article ; Online: A large remaining potential in lipid-lowering drug treatment in the type 2 diabetes population: A Danish nationwide cohort study.

    Amadid, Hanan / Rønn, Pernille F / Bekker-Nielsen Dunbar, Maria / Knudsen, Jakob S / Carstensen, Bendix / Persson, Frederik / Jørgensen, Marit E

    Diabetes, obesity & metabolism

    2021  Volume 23, Issue 10, Page(s) 2354–2363

    Abstract: Aim: To assess lipid-lowering drug (LLD) use patterns during 1996-2017 and examine lipid levels in relation to the use of LLDs and prevalent atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD).: Methods: Using a nationwide diabetes register, 404 389 ... ...

    Abstract Aim: To assess lipid-lowering drug (LLD) use patterns during 1996-2017 and examine lipid levels in relation to the use of LLDs and prevalent atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD).
    Methods: Using a nationwide diabetes register, 404 389 individuals with type 2 diabetes living in Denmark during 1996-2017 were identified. Individuals were followed from 1 January 1996 or date of type 2 diabetes diagnosis until date of emigration, death or 1 January 2017. Redemptions of prescribed LLDs were ascertained from the nationwide Register of Medicinal Products Statistics. Data on lipid levels were sourced from the National Laboratory Database since 2010. LLD coverage was calculated at any given time based on the redeemed amount and dose. Trends in lipid levels were estimated using an additive mixed-effect model. Low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) goal attainment was assessed based on recommended targets by the 2011, 2016 and 2019 guidelines for management of dyslipidaemias.
    Results: LLD use has decreased since 2012 and only 55% of those with type 2 diabetes were LLD users in 2017. A decline in levels of total cholesterol and LDL-C, and an increase in triglycerides, was observed during 2010-2017. Annual mean levels of LDL-C were lower among LLD users compared with non-users (in 2017: 1.84 vs. 2.57 mmol/L). A greater fraction of LLD users achieved the LDL-C goal of less than 1.8 mmol/L compared with non-users (in 2017: 51.7% and 19%, respectively). Among LLD users with prevalent ASCVD, 26.9% and 55% had, as recommended by current 2019 European guidelines, an LDL-C level of less than 1.4 mmol/L and less than 1.8 mmol/L, respectively, in 2017.
    Conclusions: LLD use and LDL-C levels are far from optimal in the Danish type 2 diabetes population and improvement in LLD use could reduce ASCVD events.
    MeSH term(s) Cholesterol, LDL ; Cohort Studies ; Denmark/epidemiology ; Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2/complications ; Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2/drug therapy ; Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2/epidemiology ; Humans ; Hydroxymethylglutaryl-CoA Reductase Inhibitors ; Pharmaceutical Preparations
    Chemical Substances Cholesterol, LDL ; Hydroxymethylglutaryl-CoA Reductase Inhibitors ; Pharmaceutical Preparations
    Language English
    Publishing date 2021-07-28
    Publishing country England
    Document type Journal Article ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
    ZDB-ID 1454944-x
    ISSN 1463-1326 ; 1462-8902
    ISSN (online) 1463-1326
    ISSN 1462-8902
    DOI 10.1111/dom.14478
    Database MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

    More links

    Kategorien

  10. Article ; Online: Modelling infectious disease transmission potential as a function of human behaviour

    Walters, Caroline E. / Bekker-Nielsen Dunbar, Maria / Weston, Dale / Hall, Ian M.

    medRxiv

    Abstract: Mathematical modelling is an important public health tool for aiding understanding the spread of respiratory infectious diseases, such as influenza or COVID-19, and for quantifying the effects of behavioural interventions. However, such models rarely ... ...

    Abstract Mathematical modelling is an important public health tool for aiding understanding the spread of respiratory infectious diseases, such as influenza or COVID-19, and for quantifying the effects of behavioural interventions. However, such models rarely explicitly appeals to theories of human behaviour to justify model assumptions. Here we propose a novel mathematical model of disease transmission via fomites (luggage trays) at airport security screening during an outbreak. Our model incorporates the self-protective behaviour of using hand sanitiser gel in line with the extended parallel processing model (EPPM) of behaviour. We find that changing model assumptions of human behaviour in line with the EPPM gives qualitatively different results on the optimal placement of hand sanitiser gels within an airport compared to the model with naive behavioural assumptions. Specifically, that it is preferable to place hand sanitiser gels after luggage screening in most scenarios, however in situations where individuals perceive high threat and low efficacy this strategy may need to be reviewed. This model demonstrates how existing behavioural theories can be incorporated into mathematical models of infectious disease.
    Keywords covid19
    Language English
    Publishing date 2021-07-20
    Publisher Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press
    Document type Article ; Online
    DOI 10.1101/2021.07.16.21260521
    Database COVID19

    Kategorien

To top