Artikel ; Online: Implications of polygenic risk-stratified screening for prostate cancer on overdiagnosis.
Genetics in medicine : official journal of the American College of Medical Genetics
2015 Band 17, Heft 10, Seite(n) 789–795
Abstract: Purpose: This study aimed to quantify the probability of overdiagnosis of prostate cancer by polygenic risk.: Methods: We calculated the polygenic risk score based on 66 known prostate cancer susceptibility variants for 17,012 men aged 50-69 years (9, ...
Abstract | Purpose: This study aimed to quantify the probability of overdiagnosis of prostate cancer by polygenic risk. Methods: We calculated the polygenic risk score based on 66 known prostate cancer susceptibility variants for 17,012 men aged 50-69 years (9,404 men identified with prostate cancer and 7,608 with no cancer) derived from three UK-based ongoing studies. We derived the probabilities of overdiagnosis by quartiles of polygenic risk considering that the observed prevalence of screen-detected prostate cancer is a combination of underlying incidence, mean sojourn time (MST), test sensitivity, and overdiagnosis. Results: Polygenic risk quartiles 1 to 4 comprised 9, 18, 25, and 48% of the cases, respectively. For a prostate-specific antigen test sensitivity of 80% and MST of 9 years, 43, 30, 25, and 19% of the prevalent screen-detected cancers in quartiles 1 to 4, respectively, were likely to be overdiagnosed cancers. Overdiagnosis decreased with increasing polygenic risk, with 56% decrease between the lowest and the highest polygenic risk quartiles. Conclusion: Targeting screening to men at higher polygenic risk could reduce the problem of overdiagnosis and lead to a better benefit-to-harm balance in screening for prostate cancer. |
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Mesh-Begriff(e) | Aged ; Algorithms ; Biomarkers, Tumor ; Early Detection of Cancer/methods ; Early Detection of Cancer/standards ; Genetic Loci ; Genetic Testing/methods ; Genetic Testing/standards ; Humans ; Male ; Medical Overuse ; Middle Aged ; Models, Genetic ; Models, Statistical ; Neoplasm Grading ; Neoplasm Staging ; Prostatic Neoplasms/diagnosis ; Prostatic Neoplasms/epidemiology ; Prostatic Neoplasms/genetics ; Risk ; Sensitivity and Specificity ; United Kingdom/epidemiology |
Chemische Substanzen | Biomarkers, Tumor |
Sprache | Englisch |
Erscheinungsdatum | 2015-01-08 |
Erscheinungsland | United States |
Dokumenttyp | Journal Article ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't |
ZDB-ID | 1455352-1 |
ISSN | 1530-0366 ; 1098-3600 |
ISSN (online) | 1530-0366 |
ISSN | 1098-3600 |
DOI | 10.1038/gim.2014.192 |
Datenquelle | MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE |
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