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  1. Article ; Online: Catastrophic health expenditure during the COVID-19 pandemic in five countries: a time-series analysis.

    Haakenstad, Annie / Bintz, Corinne / Knight, Megan / Bienhoff, Kelly / Chacon-Torrico, Horacio / Curioso, Walter H / Dieleman, Joseph L / Gage, Anna / Gakidou, Emmanuela / Hay, Simon I / Henry, Nathaniel J / Hernández-Vásquez, Akram / Méndez Méndez, Judith S / Villarreal, Héctor J / Lozano, Rafael

    The Lancet. Global health

    2023  Volume 11, Issue 10, Page(s) e1629–e1639

    Abstract: Background: The COVID-19 pandemic disrupted health systems in 2020, but it is unclear how financial hardship due to out-of-pocket (OOP) health-care costs was affected. We analysed catastrophic health expenditure (CHE) in 2020 in five countries with ... ...

    Abstract Background: The COVID-19 pandemic disrupted health systems in 2020, but it is unclear how financial hardship due to out-of-pocket (OOP) health-care costs was affected. We analysed catastrophic health expenditure (CHE) in 2020 in five countries with available household expenditure data: Belarus, Mexico, Peru, Russia, and Viet Nam. In Mexico and Peru, we also conducted an analysis of drivers of change in CHE in 2020 using publicly available data.
    Methods: In this time-series analysis, we defined CHE as when OOP health-care spending exceeds 10% of consumption expenditure. Data for 2004-20 were obtained from individual and household level survey microdata (available for Mexico and Peru only), and tabulated data from the National Statistical Committee of Belarus and the World Bank Health Equity and Financial Protection Indicator database (for Viet Nam and Russia). We compared 2020 CHE with the CHE predicted from historical trends using an ensemble model. This method was also used to assess drivers of CHE: insurance coverage, OOP expenditure, and consumption expenditure. Interrupted time-series analysis was used to investigate the role of stay-at-home orders in March, 2020 in changes in health-care use and sector (ie, private vs public).
    Findings: In Mexico, CHE increased to 5·6% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 5·1-6·2) in 2020, higher than predicted (3·2%, 2·5-4·0). In Belarus, CHE was 13·5% (11·8-15·2) in 2020, also higher than predicted (9·7%, 7·7-11·3). CHE was not different than predicted by past trends in Russia, Peru, and Viet Nam. Between March and April, 2020, health-care visits dropped by 4·6 (2·6-6·5) percentage points in Mexico and by 48·3 (40·6-56·0) percentage points in Peru, and the private share of health-care visits increased by 7·3 (4·3-10·3) percentage points in Mexico and by 20·7 (17·3-24·0) percentage points in Peru.
    Interpretation: In three of the five countries studied, health systems either did not protect people from the financial risks of health care or did not maintain health-care access in 2020, an indication of health systems failing to maintain basic functions. If the 2020 response to the COVID-19 pandemic accelerated shifts to private health-care use, policies to cover costs in that sector or motivate patients to return to the public sector are needed to maintain financial risk protection.
    Funding: The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
    MeSH term(s) Humans ; Health Expenditures ; COVID-19/epidemiology ; Pandemics ; Research Design ; Databases, Factual
    Language English
    Publishing date 2023-09-19
    Publishing country England
    Document type Journal Article ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
    ZDB-ID 2723488-5
    ISSN 2214-109X ; 2214-109X
    ISSN (online) 2214-109X
    ISSN 2214-109X
    DOI 10.1016/S2214-109X(23)00330-3
    Database MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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  2. Article ; Online: Current dichotomous metrics obscure trends in severe and extreme child growth failure.

    Fitzgerald, Ryan / Manguerra, Helena / Arndt, Michael B / Gardner, William M / Chang, Ya-Yin / Zigler, Bethany / Taylor, Heather Jean / Bienhoff, Kelly / Smith, David L / Murray, Christopher J L / Hay, Simon I / Reiner, Robert C / Kassebaum, Nicholas J

    Science advances

    2022  Volume 8, Issue 20, Page(s) eabm8954

    Abstract: Historically, the prevalence of child growth failure (CGF) has been tracked dichotomously as the proportion of children more than 2 SDs below the median of the World Health Organization growth standards. However, this conventional "thresholding" approach ...

    Abstract Historically, the prevalence of child growth failure (CGF) has been tracked dichotomously as the proportion of children more than 2 SDs below the median of the World Health Organization growth standards. However, this conventional "thresholding" approach fails to recognize child growth as a spectrum and obscures trends in populations with the highest rates of CGF. Our analysis presents the first ever estimates of entire distributions of HAZ, WHZ, and WAZ for each of 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2020 for children less than 5 years old by age group and sex. This approach reflects the continuous nature of CGF, allows us to more comprehensively assess shrinking or widening disparities over time, and reveals otherwise hidden trends that disproportionately affect the most vulnerable populations.
    Language English
    Publishing date 2022-05-20
    Publishing country United States
    Document type Journal Article
    ZDB-ID 2810933-8
    ISSN 2375-2548 ; 2375-2548
    ISSN (online) 2375-2548
    ISSN 2375-2548
    DOI 10.1126/sciadv.abm8954
    Database MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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  3. Article ; Online: Measuring contraceptive method mix, prevalence, and demand satisfied by age and marital status in 204 countries and territories, 1970-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.

    Haakenstad, Annie / Angelino, Olivia / Irvine, Caleb M S / Bhutta, Zulfiqar A / Bienhoff, Kelly / Bintz, Corinne / Causey, Kate / Dirac, M Ashworth / Fullman, Nancy / Gakidou, Emmanuela / Glucksman, Thomas / Hay, Simon I / Henry, Nathaniel J / Martopullo, Ira / Mokdad, Ali H / Mumford, John Everett / Lim, Stephen S / Murray, Christopher J L / Lozano, Rafael

    Lancet (London, England)

    2022  Volume 400, Issue 10348, Page(s) 295–327

    Abstract: Background: Meeting the contraceptive needs of women of reproductive age is beneficial for the health of women and children, and the economic and social empowerment of women. Higher rates of contraceptive coverage have been linked to the availability of ...

    Abstract Background: Meeting the contraceptive needs of women of reproductive age is beneficial for the health of women and children, and the economic and social empowerment of women. Higher rates of contraceptive coverage have been linked to the availability of a more diverse range of contraceptive methods. We present estimates of the contraceptive prevalence rate (CPR), modern contraceptive prevalence rate (mCPR), demand satisfied, and the method of contraception used for both partnered and unpartnered women for 5-year age groups in 204 countries and territories between 1970 and 2019.
    Methods: We used 1162 population-based surveys capturing contraceptive use among women between 1970 and 2019, in which women of reproductive age (15-49 years) self-reported their, or their partner's, current use of contraception for family planning purposes. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression was used to generate estimates of the CPR, mCPR, demand satisfied, and method mix by age and marital status. We assessed how age-specific mCPR and demand satisfied changed with the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a measure of social and economic development, using the meta-regression Bayesian, regularised, trimmed method from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study.
    Findings: In 2019, 162·9 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 155·6-170·2) women had unmet need for contraception, of whom 29·3% (27·9-30·6) resided in sub-Saharan Africa and 27·2% (24·4-30·3) resided in south Asia. Women aged 15-19 years (64·8% [62·9-66·7]) and 20-24 years (71·9% [68·9-74·2]) had the lowest rates of demand satisfied, with 43·2 million (95% UI 39·3-48·0) women aged 15-24 years with unmet need in 2019. The mCPR and demand satisfied among women aged 15-19 years were substantially lower than among women aged 20-49 years at SDI values below 60 (on a 0-100 scale), but began to equalise as SDI increased above 60. Between 1970 and 2019, the global mCPR increased by 20·1 percentage points (95% UI 18·7-21·6). During this time, traditional methods declined as a proportion of all contraceptive methods, whereas the use of implants, injections, female sterilisation, and condoms increased. Method mix differs substantially depending on age and geography, with the share of female sterilisation increasing with age and comprising more than 50% of methods in use in south Asia. In 28 countries, one method was used by more than 50% of users in 2019.
    Interpretation: The dominance of one contraceptive method in some locations raises the question of whether family planning policies should aim to expand method mix or invest in making existing methods more accessible. Lower rates of demand satisfied among women aged 15-24 years are also concerning because unintended pregnancies before age 25 years can forestall or eliminate education and employment opportunities that lead to social and economic empowerment. Policy makers should strive to tailor family planning programmes to the preferences of the groups with the most need, while maintaining the programmes used by existing users.
    Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
    MeSH term(s) Bayes Theorem ; Child ; Contraception ; Contraceptive Agents ; Family Planning Services ; Female ; Global Burden of Disease ; Humans ; Marital Status ; Pregnancy ; Prevalence
    Chemical Substances Contraceptive Agents
    Language English
    Publishing date 2022-07-25
    Publishing country England
    Document type Journal Article
    ZDB-ID 3306-6
    ISSN 1474-547X ; 0023-7507 ; 0140-6736
    ISSN (online) 1474-547X
    ISSN 0023-7507 ; 0140-6736
    DOI 10.1016/S0140-6736(22)00936-9
    Database MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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  4. Article ; Online: Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for 306 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 188 countries, 1990-2013: quantifying the epidemiological transition.

    Murray, Christopher J L / Barber, Ryan M / Foreman, Kyle J / Abbasoglu Ozgoren, Ayse / Abd-Allah, Foad / Abera, Semaw F / Aboyans, Victor / Abraham, Jerry P / Abubakar, Ibrahim / Abu-Raddad, Laith J / Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen M / Achoki, Tom / Ackerman, Ilana N / Ademi, Zanfina / Adou, Arsène K / Adsuar, José C / Afshin, Ashkan / Agardh, Emilie E / Alam, Sayed Saidul /
    Alasfoor, Deena / Albittar, Mohammed I / Alegretti, Miguel A / Alemu, Zewdie A / Alfonso-Cristancho, Rafael / Alhabib, Samia / Ali, Raghib / Alla, François / Allebeck, Peter / Almazroa, Mohammad A / Alsharif, Ubai / Alvarez, Elena / Alvis-Guzman, Nelson / Amare, Azmeraw T / Ameh, Emmanuel A / Amini, Heresh / Ammar, Walid / Anderson, H Ross / Anderson, Benjamin O / Antonio, Carl Abelardo T / Anwari, Palwasha / Arnlöv, Johan / Arsic Arsenijevic, Valentina S / Artaman, Al / Asghar, Rana J / Assadi, Reza / Atkins, Lydia S / Avila, Marco A / Awuah, Baffour / Bachman, Victoria F / Badawi, Alaa / Bahit, Maria C / Balakrishnan, Kalpana / Banerjee, Amitava / Barker-Collo, Suzanne L / Barquera, Simon / Barregard, Lars / Barrero, Lope H / Basu, Arindam / Basu, Sanjay / Basulaiman, Mohammed O / Beardsley, Justin / Bedi, Neeraj / Beghi, Ettore / Bekele, Tolesa / Bell, Michelle L / Benjet, Corina / Bennett, Derrick A / Bensenor, Isabela M / Benzian, Habib / Bernabé, Eduardo / Bertozzi-Villa, Amelia / Beyene, Tariku J / Bhala, Neeraj / Bhalla, Ashish / Bhutta, Zulfiqar A / Bienhoff, Kelly / Bikbov, Boris / Biryukov, Stan / Blore, Jed D / Blosser, Christopher D / Blyth, Fiona M / Bohensky, Megan A / Bolliger, Ian W / Bora Başara, Berrak / Bornstein, Natan M / Bose, Dipan / Boufous, Soufiane / Bourne, Rupert R A / Boyers, Lindsay N / Brainin, Michael / Brayne, Carol E / Brazinova, Alexandra / Breitborde, Nicholas J K / Brenner, Hermann / Briggs, Adam D / Brooks, Peter M / Brown, Jonathan C / Brugha, Traolach S / Buchbinder, Rachelle / Buckle, Geoffrey C / Budke, Christine M / Bulchis, Anne / Bulloch, Andrew G / Campos-Nonato, Ismael R / Carabin, Hélène / Carapetis, Jonathan R / Cárdenas, Rosario / Carpenter, David O / Caso, Valeria / Castañeda-Orjuela, Carlos A / Castro, Ruben E / Catalá-López, Ferrán / Cavalleri, Fiorella / Çavlin, Alanur / Chadha, Vineet K / Chang, Jung-Chen / Charlson, Fiona J / Chen, Honglei / Chen, Wanqing / Chiang, Peggy P / Chimed-Ochir, Odgerel / Chowdhury, Rajiv / Christensen, Hanne / Christophi, Costas A / Cirillo, Massimo / Coates, Matthew M / Coffeng, Luc E / Coggeshall, Megan S / Colistro, Valentina / Colquhoun, Samantha M / Cooke, Graham S / Cooper, Cyrus / Cooper, Leslie T / Coppola, Luis M / Cortinovis, Monica / Criqui, Michael H / Crump, John A / Cuevas-Nasu, Lucia / Danawi, Hadi / Dandona, Lalit / Dandona, Rakhi / Dansereau, Emily / Dargan, Paul I / Davey, Gail / Davis, Adrian / Davitoiu, Dragos V / Dayama, Anand / De Leo, Diego / Degenhardt, Louisa / Del Pozo-Cruz, Borja / Dellavalle, Robert P / Deribe, Kebede / Derrett, Sarah / Des Jarlais, Don C / Dessalegn, Muluken / Dharmaratne, Samath D / Dherani, Mukesh K / Diaz-Torné, Cesar / Dicker, Daniel / Ding, Eric L / Dokova, Klara / Dorsey, E Ray / Driscoll, Tim R / Duan, Leilei / Duber, Herbert C / Ebel, Beth E / Edmond, Karen M / Elshrek, Yousef M / Endres, Matthias / Ermakov, Sergey P / Erskine, Holly E / Eshrati, Babak / Esteghamati, Alireza / Estep, Kara / Faraon, Emerito Jose A / Farzadfar, Farshad / Fay, Derek F / Feigin, Valery L / Felson, David T / Fereshtehnejad, Seyed-Mohammad / Fernandes, Jefferson G / Ferrari, Alize J / Fitzmaurice, Christina / Flaxman, Abraham D / Fleming, Thomas D / Foigt, Nataliya / Forouzanfar, Mohammad H / Fowkes, F Gerry R / Paleo, Urbano Fra / Franklin, Richard C / Fürst, Thomas / Gabbe, Belinda / Gaffikin, Lynne / Gankpé, Fortuné G / Geleijnse, Johanna M / Gessner, Bradford D / Gething, Peter / Gibney, Katherine B / Giroud, Maurice / Giussani, Giorgia / Gomez Dantes, Hector / Gona, Philimon / González-Medina, Diego / Gosselin, Richard A / Gotay, Carolyn C / Goto, Atsushi / Gouda, Hebe N / Graetz, Nicholas / Gugnani, Harish C / Gupta, Rahul / Gupta, Rajeev / Gutiérrez, Reyna A / Haagsma, Juanita / Hafezi-Nejad, Nima / Hagan, Holly / Halasa, Yara A / Hamadeh, Randah R / Hamavid, Hannah / Hammami, Mouhanad / Hancock, Jamie / Hankey, Graeme J / Hansen, Gillian M / Hao, Yuantao / Harb, Hilda L / Haro, Josep Maria / Havmoeller, Rasmus / Hay, Simon I / Hay, Roderick J / Heredia-Pi, Ileana B / Heuton, Kyle R / Heydarpour, Pouria / Higashi, Hideki / Hijar, Martha / Hoek, Hans W / Hoffman, Howard J / Hosgood, H Dean / Hossain, Mazeda / Hotez, Peter J / Hoy, Damian G / Hsairi, Mohamed / Hu, Guoqing / Huang, Cheng / Huang, John J / Husseini, Abdullatif / Huynh, Chantal / Iannarone, Marissa L / Iburg, Kim M / Innos, Kaire / Inoue, Manami / Islami, Farhad / Jacobsen, Kathryn H / Jarvis, Deborah L / Jassal, Simerjot K / Jee, Sun Ha / Jeemon, Panniyammakal / Jensen, Paul N / Jha, Vivekanand / Jiang, Guohong / Jiang, Ying / Jonas, Jost B / Juel, Knud / Kan, Haidong / Karch, André / Karema, Corine K / Karimkhani, Chante / Karthikeyan, Ganesan / Kassebaum, Nicholas J / Kaul, Anil / Kawakami, Norito / Kazanjan, Konstantin / Kemp, Andrew H / Kengne, Andre P / Keren, Andre / Khader, Yousef S / Khalifa, Shams Eldin A / Khan, Ejaz A / Khan, Gulfaraz / Khang, Young-Ho / Kieling, Christian / Kim, Daniel / Kim, Sungroul / Kim, Yunjin / Kinfu, Yohannes / Kinge, Jonas M / Kivipelto, Miia / Knibbs, Luke D / Knudsen, Ann Kristin / Kokubo, Yoshihiro / Kosen, Soewarta / Krishnaswami, Sanjay / Kuate Defo, Barthelemy / Kucuk Bicer, Burcu / Kuipers, Ernst J / Kulkarni, Chanda / Kulkarni, Veena S / Kumar, G Anil / Kyu, Hmwe H / Lai, Taavi / Lalloo, Ratilal / Lallukka, Tea / Lam, Hilton / Lan, Qing / Lansingh, Van C / Larsson, Anders / Lawrynowicz, Alicia E B / Leasher, Janet L / Leigh, James / Leung, Ricky / Levitz, Carly E / Li, Bin / Li, Yichong / Li, Yongmei / Lim, Stephen S / Lind, Maggie / Lipshultz, Steven E / Liu, Shiwei / Liu, Yang / Lloyd, Belinda K / Lofgren, Katherine T / Logroscino, Giancarlo / Looker, Katharine J / Lortet-Tieulent, Joannie / Lotufo, Paulo A / Lozano, Rafael / Lucas, Robyn M / Lunevicius, Raimundas / Lyons, Ronan A / Ma, Stefan / Macintyre, Michael F / Mackay, Mark T / Majdan, Marek / Malekzadeh, Reza / Marcenes, Wagner / Margolis, David J / Margono, Christopher / Marzan, Melvin B / Masci, Joseph R / Mashal, Mohammad T / Matzopoulos, Richard / Mayosi, Bongani M / Mazorodze, Tasara T / Mcgill, Neil W / Mcgrath, John J / Mckee, Martin / Mclain, Abigail / Meaney, Peter A / Medina, Catalina / Mehndiratta, Man Mohan / Mekonnen, Wubegzier / Melaku, Yohannes A / Meltzer, Michele / Memish, Ziad A / Mensah, George A / Meretoja, Atte / Mhimbira, Francis A / Micha, Renata / Miller, Ted R / Mills, Edward J / Mitchell, Philip B / Mock, Charles N / Mohamed Ibrahim, Norlinah / Mohammad, Karzan A / Mokdad, Ali H / Mola, Glen L D / Monasta, Lorenzo / Montañez Hernandez, Julio C / Montico, Marcella / Montine, Thomas J / Mooney, Meghan D / Moore, Ami R / Moradi-Lakeh, Maziar / Moran, Andrew E / Mori, Rintaro / Moschandreas, Joanna / Moturi, Wilkister N / Moyer, Madeline L / Mozaffarian, Dariush / Msemburi, William T / Mueller, Ulrich O / Mukaigawara, Mitsuru / Mullany, Erin C / Murdoch, Michele E / Murray, Joseph / Murthy, Kinnari S / Naghavi, Mohsen / Naheed, Aliya / Naidoo, Kovin S / Naldi, Luigi / Nand, Devina / Nangia, Vinay / Narayan, K M Venkat / Nejjari, Chakib / Neupane, Sudan P / Newton, Charles R / Ng, Marie / Ngalesoni, Frida N / Nguyen, Grant / Nisar, Muhammad I / Nolte, Sandra / Norheim, Ole F / Norman, Rosana E / Norrving, Bo / Nyakarahuka, Luke / Oh, In-Hwan / Ohkubo, Takayoshi / Ohno, Summer L / Olusanya, Bolajoko O / Opio, John Nelson / Ortblad, Katrina / Ortiz, Alberto / Pain, Amanda W / Pandian, Jeyaraj D / Panelo, Carlo Irwin A / Papachristou, Christina / Park, Eun-Kee / Park, Jae-Hyun / Patten, Scott B / Patton, George C / Paul, Vinod K / Pavlin, Boris I / Pearce, Neil / Pereira, David M / Perez-Padilla, Rogelio / Perez-Ruiz, Fernando / Perico, Norberto / Pervaiz, Aslam / Pesudovs, Konrad / Peterson, Carrie B / Petzold, Max / Phillips, Michael R / Phillips, Bryan K / Phillips, David E / Piel, Frédéric B / Plass, Dietrich / Poenaru, Dan / Polinder, Suzanne / Pope, Daniel / Popova, Svetlana / Poulton, Richie G / Pourmalek, Farshad / Prabhakaran, Dorairaj / Prasad, Noela M / Pullan, Rachel L / Qato, Dima M / Quistberg, D Alex / Rafay, Anwar / Rahimi, Kazem / Rahman, Sajjad U / Raju, Murugesan / Rana, Saleem M / Razavi, Homie / Reddy, K Srinath / Refaat, Amany / Remuzzi, Giuseppe / Resnikoff, Serge / Ribeiro, Antonio L / Richardson, Lee / Richardus, Jan Hendrik / Roberts, D Allen / Rojas-Rueda, David / Ronfani, Luca / Roth, Gregory A / Rothenbacher, Dietrich / Rothstein, David H / Rowley, Jane T / Roy, Nobhojit / Ruhago, George M / Saeedi, Mohammad Y / Saha, Sukanta / Sahraian, Mohammad Ali / Sampson, Uchechukwu K A / Sanabria, Juan R / Sandar, Logan / Santos, Itamar S / Satpathy, Maheswar / Sawhney, Monika / Scarborough, Peter / Schneider, Ione J / Schöttker, Ben / Schumacher, Austin E / Schwebel, David C / Scott, James G / Seedat, Soraya / Sepanlou, Sadaf G / Serina, Peter T / Servan-Mori, Edson E / Shackelford, Katya A / Shaheen, Amira / Shahraz, Saeid / Shamah Levy, Teresa / Shangguan, Siyi / She, Jun / Sheikhbahaei, Sara / Shi, Peilin / Shibuya, Kenji / Shinohara, Yukito / Shiri, Rahman / Shishani, Kawkab / Shiue, Ivy / Shrime, Mark G / Sigfusdottir, Inga D / Silberberg, Donald H / Simard, Edgar P / Sindi, Shireen / Singh, Abhishek / Singh, Jasvinder A / Singh, Lavanya / Skirbekk, Vegard / Slepak, Erica Leigh / Sliwa, Karen / Soneji, Samir / Søreide, Kjetil / Soshnikov, Sergey / Sposato, Luciano A / Sreeramareddy, Chandrashekhar T / Stanaway, Jeffrey D / Stathopoulou, Vasiliki / Stein, Dan J / Stein, Murray B / Steiner, Caitlyn / Steiner, Timothy J / Stevens, Antony / Stewart, Andrea / Stovner, Lars J / Stroumpoulis, Konstantinos / Sunguya, Bruno F / Swaminathan, Soumya / Swaroop, Mamta / Sykes, Bryan L / Tabb, Karen M / Takahashi, Ken / Tandon, Nikhil / Tanne, David / Tanner, Marcel / Tavakkoli, Mohammad / Taylor, Hugh R / Te Ao, Braden J / Tediosi, Fabrizio / Temesgen, Awoke M / Templin, Tara / Ten Have, Margreet / Tenkorang, Eric Y / Terkawi, Abdullah S / Thomson, Blake / Thorne-Lyman, Andrew L / Thrift, Amanda G / Thurston, George D / Tillmann, Taavi / Tonelli, Marcello / Topouzis, Fotis / Toyoshima, Hideaki / Traebert, Jefferson / Tran, Bach X / Trillini, Matias / Truelsen, Thomas / Tsilimbaris, Miltiadis / Tuzcu, Emin M / Uchendu, Uche S / Ukwaja, Kingsley N / Undurraga, Eduardo A / Uzun, Selen B / Van Brakel, Wim H / Van De Vijver, Steven / van Gool, Coen H / Van Os, Jim / Vasankari, Tommi J / Venketasubramanian, N / Violante, Francesco S / Vlassov, Vasiliy V / Vollset, Stein Emil / Wagner, Gregory R / Wagner, Joseph / Waller, Stephen G / Wan, Xia / Wang, Haidong / Wang, Jianli / Wang, Linhong / Warouw, Tati S / Weichenthal, Scott / Weiderpass, Elisabete / Weintraub, Robert G / Wenzhi, Wang / Werdecker, Andrea / Westerman, Ronny / Whiteford, Harvey A / Wilkinson, James D / Williams, Thomas N / Wolfe, Charles D / Wolock, Timothy M / Woolf, Anthony D / Wulf, Sarah / Wurtz, Brittany / Xu, Gelin / Yan, Lijing L / Yano, Yuichiro / Ye, Pengpeng / Yentür, Gökalp K / Yip, Paul / Yonemoto, Naohiro / Yoon, Seok-Jun / Younis, Mustafa Z / Yu, Chuanhua / Zaki, Maysaa E / Zhao, Yong / Zheng, Yingfeng / Zonies, David / Zou, Xiaonong / Salomon, Joshua A / Lopez, Alan D / Vos, Theo

    Lancet (London, England)

    2015  Volume 386, Issue 10009, Page(s) 2145–2191

    Abstract: Background: The Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) aims to bring together all available epidemiological data using a coherent measurement framework, standardised estimation methods, and transparent data sources to enable comparisons of ... ...

    Abstract Background: The Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) aims to bring together all available epidemiological data using a coherent measurement framework, standardised estimation methods, and transparent data sources to enable comparisons of health loss over time and across causes, age-sex groups, and countries. The GBD can be used to generate summary measures such as disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and healthy life expectancy (HALE) that make possible comparative assessments of broad epidemiological patterns across countries and time. These summary measures can also be used to quantify the component of variation in epidemiology that is related to sociodemographic development.
    Methods: We used the published GBD 2013 data for age-specific mortality, years of life lost due to premature mortality (YLLs), and years lived with disability (YLDs) to calculate DALYs and HALE for 1990, 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010, and 2013 for 188 countries. We calculated HALE using the Sullivan method; 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) represent uncertainty in age-specific death rates and YLDs per person for each country, age, sex, and year. We estimated DALYs for 306 causes for each country as the sum of YLLs and YLDs; 95% UIs represent uncertainty in YLL and YLD rates. We quantified patterns of the epidemiological transition with a composite indicator of sociodemographic status, which we constructed from income per person, average years of schooling after age 15 years, and the total fertility rate and mean age of the population. We applied hierarchical regression to DALY rates by cause across countries to decompose variance related to the sociodemographic status variable, country, and time.
    Findings: Worldwide, from 1990 to 2013, life expectancy at birth rose by 6·2 years (95% UI 5·6-6·6), from 65·3 years (65·0-65·6) in 1990 to 71·5 years (71·0-71·9) in 2013, HALE at birth rose by 5·4 years (4·9-5·8), from 56·9 years (54·5-59·1) to 62·3 years (59·7-64·8), total DALYs fell by 3·6% (0·3-7·4), and age-standardised DALY rates per 100 000 people fell by 26·7% (24·6-29·1). For communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional disorders, global DALY numbers, crude rates, and age-standardised rates have all declined between 1990 and 2013, whereas for non-communicable diseases, global DALYs have been increasing, DALY rates have remained nearly constant, and age-standardised DALY rates declined during the same period. From 2005 to 2013, the number of DALYs increased for most specific non-communicable diseases, including cardiovascular diseases and neoplasms, in addition to dengue, food-borne trematodes, and leishmaniasis; DALYs decreased for nearly all other causes. By 2013, the five leading causes of DALYs were ischaemic heart disease, lower respiratory infections, cerebrovascular disease, low back and neck pain, and road injuries. Sociodemographic status explained more than 50% of the variance between countries and over time for diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and other common infectious diseases; maternal disorders; neonatal disorders; nutritional deficiencies; other communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases; musculoskeletal disorders; and other non-communicable diseases. However, sociodemographic status explained less than 10% of the variance in DALY rates for cardiovascular diseases; chronic respiratory diseases; cirrhosis; diabetes, urogenital, blood, and endocrine diseases; unintentional injuries; and self-harm and interpersonal violence. Predictably, increased sociodemographic status was associated with a shift in burden from YLLs to YLDs, driven by declines in YLLs and increases in YLDs from musculoskeletal disorders, neurological disorders, and mental and substance use disorders. In most country-specific estimates, the increase in life expectancy was greater than that in HALE. Leading causes of DALYs are highly variable across countries.
    Interpretation: Global health is improving. Population growth and ageing have driven up numbers of DALYs, but crude rates have remained relatively constant, showing that progress in health does not mean fewer demands on health systems. The notion of an epidemiological transition--in which increasing sociodemographic status brings structured change in disease burden--is useful, but there is tremendous variation in burden of disease that is not associated with sociodemographic status. This further underscores the need for country-specific assessments of DALYs and HALE to appropriately inform health policy decisions and attendant actions.
    Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
    MeSH term(s) Aged ; Chronic Disease/epidemiology ; Communicable Diseases/epidemiology ; Female ; Global Health/statistics & numerical data ; Health Transition ; Humans ; Life Expectancy ; Male ; Middle Aged ; Mortality, Premature ; Quality-Adjusted Life Years ; Socioeconomic Factors ; Wounds and Injuries/epidemiology
    Language English
    Publishing date 2015-08-28
    Publishing country England
    Document type Journal Article ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
    ZDB-ID 3306-6
    ISSN 1474-547X ; 0023-7507 ; 0140-6736
    ISSN (online) 1474-547X
    ISSN 0023-7507 ; 0140-6736
    DOI 10.1016/S0140-6736(15)61340-X
    Database MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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