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  1. Article ; Online: How political choices shaped Covid connectivity: The Italian case study.

    Amico, Enrico / Bulai, Iulia Martina

    PloS one

    2021  Volume 16, Issue 12, Page(s) e0261041

    Abstract: The importance of implementing new methodologies to study the ever-increasing amount of Covid-19 data is apparent. The aftermath analysis of these data could inform us on how specific political decisions influenced the dynamics of the pandemic outbreak. ... ...

    Abstract The importance of implementing new methodologies to study the ever-increasing amount of Covid-19 data is apparent. The aftermath analysis of these data could inform us on how specific political decisions influenced the dynamics of the pandemic outbreak. In this paper we use the Italian outbreak as a case study, to study six different Covid indicators collected in twenty Italian regions. We define a new object, the Covidome, to investigate the network of functional Covid interactions between regions. We analyzed the Italian Covidome over the course of 2020, and found that Covid connectivity between regions follows a sharp North-South community gradient. Furthermore, we explored the Covidome dynamics and individuated differences in regional Covid connectivity between the first and second waves of the pandemic. These differences can be associated to the two different lockdown strategies adopted for the first and the second wave from the Italian government. Finally, we explored to what extent Covid connectivity was associated with the Italian geographical network, and found that Central regions were more tied to the structural constraints than Northern or Southern regions in the spread of the virus. We hope that this approach will be useful in gaining new insights on how political choices shaped Covid dynamics across nations.
    MeSH term(s) COVID-19/epidemiology ; Hospitalization ; Humans ; Italy/epidemiology ; Politics ; Time Factors
    Language English
    Publishing date 2021-12-10
    Publishing country United States
    Document type Journal Article ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
    ISSN 1932-6203
    ISSN (online) 1932-6203
    DOI 10.1371/journal.pone.0261041
    Database MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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  2. Article ; Online: Eco-epidemiological interactions with predator interference and infection.

    Bulai, Iulia Martina / Hilker, Frank M

    Theoretical population biology

    2019  Volume 130, Page(s) 191–202

    Abstract: Predator interference is a form of competition between predator individuals over access to their prey. There is broad empirical evidence for interference to exist in different strengths in various types of ecological communities. At the same time, ... ...

    Abstract Predator interference is a form of competition between predator individuals over access to their prey. There is broad empirical evidence for interference to exist in different strengths in various types of ecological communities. At the same time, parasites are increasingly recognized to alter food web structure and dynamics. In order to investigate the eco-epidemiological interplay between interference and infection, we develop and analyze mathematical models of a predator-prey system, where the predators are subject to both interference and infectious disease. In the absence of infection, equilibrium predator density is known to show a non-monotonic response to interference by first increasing and then decreasing with increasing interference levels. We show that predator infection can change this pattern into a monotonically decreasing predator response to interference, provided the transmissibility is large enough and the pathogenicity is moderate such that the impact of disease on host population density prevails over interference effects. This holds for both types of disease transmission studied here, density-dependent and frequency-dependent. For density-dependent transmission, we find that intermediate values of interference can facilitate disease persistence, whereas the disease would disappear for small or large interference levels. By contrast, for frequency-dependent transmission, disease emergence is independent of interference levels. These dynamic interactions may be important for the understanding of potential biocontrol measures and of spread patterns of zoonotic diseases.
    MeSH term(s) Animals ; Ecosystem ; Food Chain ; Host-Parasite Interactions ; Infections/transmission ; Models, Theoretical ; Population Density ; Predatory Behavior
    Language English
    Publishing date 2019-08-22
    Publishing country United States
    Document type Journal Article ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
    ZDB-ID 3948-2
    ISSN 1096-0325 ; 0040-5809
    ISSN (online) 1096-0325
    ISSN 0040-5809
    DOI 10.1016/j.tpb.2019.07.016
    Database MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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  3. Article ; Online: Modeling the interactions among phythopatogens and phyllosphere microorganisms for the biological disease control of Olea europaea L.

    Baptista, Paula / Bulai, Iulia Martina / Gomes, Teresa / Venturino, Ezio

    Mathematical biosciences

    2018  Volume 308, Page(s) 42–58

    Abstract: In this paper we formulate a model for assessing the interaction between the phytopathogen Spilocaea oleaginea and the phyllosphere microorganisms that are present in the olive tree leaves. The model describes the evolution in time of the foliage of the ... ...

    Abstract In this paper we formulate a model for assessing the interaction between the phytopathogen Spilocaea oleaginea and the phyllosphere microorganisms that are present in the olive tree leaves. The model describes the evolution in time of the foliage of the olive tree and the two different microorganisms, the phytopathogen fungi, that negatively affect the plant causing spots in the leaves, and the beneficial phyllosphere microorganisms, that help in keeping in check the invasion of the former. The system possesses five equilibria that are suitably analysed for feasibility and stability. The model shows interesting features: a bistable behavior, exhibited by three different pairs of equilibria. The separatrix surface of the basins of attraction of one such pair is computed. This allows the possible assessment of human intervention for control of the disease. Persistent oscillations via Hopf bifurcation are also discovered.
    MeSH term(s) Ascomycota ; Models, Biological ; Mycoses/microbiology ; Olea/microbiology ; Plant Diseases/microbiology
    Language English
    Publishing date 2018-12-04
    Publishing country United States
    Document type Journal Article ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
    ZDB-ID 1126-5
    ISSN 1879-3134 ; 0025-5564
    ISSN (online) 1879-3134
    ISSN 0025-5564
    DOI 10.1016/j.mbs.2018.12.002
    Database MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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