Book ; Article ; Online: Dispersion of a new coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 by airlines in 2020
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-02507142 ; 2020
Temporal estimates of the outbreak in Mexico
2020
Abstract: On January 23, 2020, China imposed a quarantine on the city of Wuhan to contain the Covid-19 outbreak. In this work we show an analysis of the dispersion of this infection to other cities by airlines based on the classic model the Kermack and McKendrick ... ...
| Abstract | On January 23, 2020, China imposed a quarantine on the city of Wuhan to contain the Covid-19 outbreak. In this work we show an analysis of the dispersion of this infection to other cities by airlines based on the classic model the Kermack and McKendrick complemented with diffusion on a graph. The main purpose is to give estimates of the arrival virus and times of the outbreak to other locations. We use Mexico City as an example. In this case, our estimate of the arrival time is around March 20, 2020. This analysis is limited to the analysis of dispersion by airlines, so this estimate should be takenAs an overestimate since the infection can arrive by other means. Last, we show that these estimates are robust to small variations of epidemiological parameters. |
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| Keywords | outbreak ; COVID-19 ; coronavirus ; SARS-CoV-2 ; [SDV.SPEE]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Santé publique et épidémiologie ; [MATH.MATH-DS]Mathematics [math]/Dynamical Systems [math.DS] ; covid19 |
| Language | English |
| Publishing date | 2020-03-12 |
| Publisher | HAL CCSD |
| Publishing country | fr |
| Document type | Book ; Article ; Online |
| Database | BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection) |
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