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  1. Article ; Online: Monitoring COVID-19 contagion growth.

    Agosto, Arianna / Campmas, Alexandra / Giudici, Paolo / Renda, Andrea

    Statistics in medicine

    2021  Volume 40, Issue 18, Page(s) 4150–4160

    Abstract: We present a statistical model that can be employed to monitor the time evolution of the COVID-19 contagion curve and the associated reproduction rate. The model is a Poisson autoregression of the daily new observed cases and dynamically adapt its ... ...

    Abstract We present a statistical model that can be employed to monitor the time evolution of the COVID-19 contagion curve and the associated reproduction rate. The model is a Poisson autoregression of the daily new observed cases and dynamically adapt its estimates to explain the evolution of contagion in terms of a short-term and long-term dependence of case counts, allowing for a comparative evaluation of health policy measures. We have applied the model to 2020 data from the countries most hit by the virus. Our empirical findings show that the proposed model describes the evolution of contagion dynamics and determines whether contagion growth can be affected by health policies. Based on our findings, we can draw two health policy conclusions that can be useful for all countries in the world. First, policy measures aimed at reducing contagion are very useful when contagion is at its peak to reduce the reproduction rate. Second, the contagion curve should be accurately monitored over time to apply policy measures that are cost-effective.
    MeSH term(s) COVID-19 ; Health Policy ; Humans ; Models, Statistical ; SARS-CoV-2
    Language English
    Publishing date 2021-05-11
    Publishing country England
    Document type Journal Article ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
    ZDB-ID 843037-8
    ISSN 1097-0258 ; 0277-6715
    ISSN (online) 1097-0258
    ISSN 0277-6715
    DOI 10.1002/sim.9020
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  2. Article ; Online: A Statistical Model to Monitor COVID-19 Contagion Growth

    Agosto, Arianna / Campmas, Alexandra / Giudici, Paolo / Renda, Andrea

    SSRN Electronic Journal ; ISSN 1556-5068

    2020  

    Keywords covid19
    Language English
    Publisher Elsevier BV
    Publishing country us
    Document type Article ; Online
    DOI 10.2139/ssrn.3585930
    Database BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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  3. Book ; Article ; Online: Monitoring Covid-19 contagion growth in Europe. CEPS Working Document No 2020/03, March 2020

    Agosto, Arianna / Campmas, Alexandra / Giudici, Paolo / Renda, Andrea

    2020  

    Abstract: We present an econometric model which can be employed to monitor the evolution of the COVID-19 contagion curve. The model is a Poisson autoregression of the daily new observed cases, and can dynamically show the evolution of contagion in different time ... ...

    Abstract We present an econometric model which can be employed to monitor the evolution of the COVID-19 contagion curve. The model is a Poisson autoregression of the daily new observed cases, and can dynamically show the evolution of contagion in different time periods and locations, allowing for the comparative evaluation of policy approaches. We present timely results for nine European countries currently hit by the virus. From the findings, we draw four main conclusions. First, countries experiencing an explosive process (currently France, Italy and Spain), combined with high persistence of contagion shocks (observed in most countries under investigation), require swift policy measures such as quarantine, diffuse testing and even complete lockdown. Second, in countries with high persistence but lower contagion growth (currently Germany) careful monitoring should be coupled with at least “mild” restrictions such as physical distancing or isolation of specific areas. Third, in some countries, such as Norway and Denmark, where trends seem to be relatively under control and depend on daily contingencies, with low persistence, the approach to restrictive measures should be more cautious since there is a risk that social costs outweigh the benefits. Fourth, countries with a limited set of preventive actions in place (such as the Netherlands, Switzerla
    Keywords public health policy (including global activities) ; Denmark ; France ; Germany ; Italy ; Netherlands ; Norway ; Spain ; Switzerland ; U.K ; covid19
    Publishing country us
    Document type Book ; Article ; Online
    Database BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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