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Article: How accurate are radiography and computed tomography in the diagnosis of COVID-19?-A Bayesian approach.

Canals, Mauricio / Canals, Andrea

2022 Volume 11, Issue 11, Page(s) 20584601221142256

Abstract: Background: The role of radiology in patients with clinical suspicion of COVID-19 is evolving with scientific evidence, but there are differences in opinion on when and how the technique should be used for clinical diagnosis.: Purpose: To estimate ... ...

Abstract	Background: The role of radiology in patients with clinical suspicion of COVID-19 is evolving with scientific evidence, but there are differences in opinion on when and how the technique should be used for clinical diagnosis. Purpose: To estimate the pre-test and post-test probability that a patient has COVID-19 in the event of a positive and/or negative result from chest X-ray and chest computed tomography (CT) radiological studies, comparing with those of real time polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) tests. Methods: The literature on the sensitivity and specificity of the chest X-ray, chest CT, and RT-PCR was reviewed. Based on these reported data, the likelihood ratios (LR) were estimated and the pre-test probabilities were related to the post-test probabilities after positive or negative results. Results: The chest X-ray has only a confirmatory value in cases of high suspicion. Chest CT analyses showed that when it is used as a general study, it has almost confirmatory value under high clinical suspicion. A chest CT classified with CO-RADS ≥ 4 has almost a diagnostic certainty of COVID-19 even with moderate or low clinical presumptions, and the CO-RADS 5 classification is almost pathognomonic before any clinical presumption. To rule out COVID-19 completely is only possible in very low clinical assumptions with negative RT-PCR and/or CT. Conclusions: Chest X-ray and especially CT are fast studies that have the capacity to report high probability of COVID-19, being a real contribution to the concept of "probable case" and allowing support to be installed in an early and timely manner.
Language	English
Publishing date	2022-11-24
Publishing country	England
Document type	Journal Article
ZDB-ID	2818429-4
ISSN	2058-4601
ISSN	2058-4601
DOI	10.1177/20584601221142256
Database	MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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Article ; Online: Riesgo y distribución geográfica de neurocisticercosis en Chile según egresos hospitalarios (2002-2019).

Oyarce, Alan / Ayala, Salvador / Canals, Mauricio

Revista medica de Chile

2022 Volume 150, Issue 2, Page(s) 222–231

Abstract: Background: Neurocysticercosis is the most prevalent parasitic disease of the central nervous system in Chile, where sporadic cases are reported, without information about the epidemiology or distribution of the disease.: Aim: To identify the main ... ...

Title translation	Epidemiology of cysticercosis in Chile.
Abstract	Background: Neurocysticercosis is the most prevalent parasitic disease of the central nervous system in Chile, where sporadic cases are reported, without information about the epidemiology or distribution of the disease. Aim: To identify the main risk zones for cysticercosis in Chile. Material and methods: Analysis of hospital discharge databases between 2002 and 2019, available at the website of the Chilean Ministry of Health. Cases with B69 code of the tenth international classification of diseases were identified. Results: In the study period, there were 1752 discharges with the diagnoses of neurocysticercosis, ocular cysticercosis and cysticercosis of other sites. The ages of patients ranged from 0 to 89 years with a clustering between 30 and 59 years. Sixty two percent were males. The zone between the regions of Maule and Araucania concentrated 82% of cases. Conclusions: We identified the zone with the greatest concentration of cysticercosis in Chile, where preventive strategies should eventually be directed.
MeSH term(s)	Adolescent ; Adult ; Aged ; Aged, 80 and over ; Central Nervous System ; Child ; Child, Preschool ; Chile/epidemiology ; Cysticercosis/diagnosis ; Cysticercosis/epidemiology ; Cysticercosis/parasitology ; Female ; Humans ; Infant ; Infant, Newborn ; Male ; Middle Aged ; Neurocysticercosis/epidemiology ; Neurocysticercosis/parasitology ; Patient Discharge ; Young Adult
Language	Spanish
Publishing date	2022-09-26
Publishing country	Chile
Document type	Journal Article
ZDB-ID	732136-3
ISSN	0717-6163 ; 0034-9887
ISSN (online)	0717-6163
ISSN	0034-9887
DOI	10.4067/S0034-98872022000200222
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Article ; Online: Distribución y factores de riesgo de equinococosis quística humana en Aysén 2010-2016.

Medina, Nicolás / Martínez, Paulina / Ayala, Salvador / Canals, Mauricio

Revista chilena de infectologia : organo oficial de la Sociedad Chilena de Infectologia

2021 Volume 38, Issue 3, Page(s) 349–354

Abstract: Background: In Chile, cystic echinococcosis is endemic throughout the country and hyperendemic in some regions such as La Araucanía and Aysén and continues to be a neglected public health problem.: Aim: To estímate the risk of human hydatidosis in ... ...

Title translation	Distribution and risk factors of human cystic echinococcosis in Aysén 2010-2016.
Abstract	Background: In Chile, cystic echinococcosis is endemic throughout the country and hyperendemic in some regions such as La Araucanía and Aysén and continues to be a neglected public health problem. Aim: To estímate the risk of human hydatidosis in Aysén, studying the relationship of notifications and hospital discharge rates with social and environmental factors, such as population, multidimensional poverty index, urbanization, average temperature, average rainfall and sheep population. Methods: Poisson regressions were used to study the factors associated with notifiable diseases and hospital discharge rates and the Besag-York-Mollie model for relative risk. Results and conclusions: Aysén has a high risk, between 2 and 19 times that expected for the region. A significant underreporting of cases was found. The model of hospital discharges had a good fit showing the positive influence of the human and bovine population and the positive effect of temperature. An effect of the multidimensional poverty index was also detected, which is mainly affected by education and working conditions. Excepting one locality, the areas of greatest risk correspond to the eastern cordon of the Aysén region.
MeSH term(s)	Animals ; Cattle ; Echinococcosis/epidemiology ; Educational Status ; Humans ; Patient Discharge ; Risk Factors ; Sheep ; Temperature
Language	Spanish
Publishing date	2021-08-31
Publishing country	Chile
Document type	Journal Article
ZDB-ID	2048815-4
ISSN	0717-6341 ; 0716-1018
ISSN (online)	0717-6341
ISSN	0716-1018
DOI	10.4067/S0716-10182021000300349
Database	MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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Article ; Online: COVID-19 in Chile: The usefulness of simple epidemic models in practice.

Canals, Mauricio / Cuadrado, Cristóbal / Canals, Andrea

Medwave

2021 Volume 21, Issue 1, Page(s) e8119

Abstract: Objectives: The purpose of this article is to describe and develop the predictive value of three models during the COVID-19 epidemic in Chile, providing knowledge for decision-making in health.: Methods: We developed three models during the epidemic: ...

Title translation	COVID-19 en Chile: la utilidad de los modelos epidémicos simples en la práctica.
Abstract	Objectives: The purpose of this article is to describe and develop the predictive value of three models during the COVID-19 epidemic in Chile, providing knowledge for decision-making in health. Methods: We developed three models during the epidemic: a discrete model to predict the maximum burden on the health system in a short time framea basic SEIR (susceptible-exposed-infected-removed) model with discrete equations; a stochastic SEIR model with the Monte Carlo method; and a Gompertz-type model for metropolitan city of Santiago. Results: The maximum potential burden model has been useful throughout the monitoring of the epidemic, providing an upper bound for the number of cases, intensive care unit occupancy, and deaths. Deterministic and stochastic SEIR models were very useful in predicting the rise of cases and the peak and onset of case decline; however, they lost utility in the current situation due to the asynchronous recruitment of cases in the regions and the persistence of a strong endemic. The Gompertz model had a better fit in the decline since it best captures the epidemic curves asymmetry in Santiago. Conclusions: The models have shown great utility in monitoring the epidemic in Chile, with different objectives in different epidemic stages. They have complemented empirical indicators such as reported cases, fatality, deaths, and others, making it possible to predict situations of interest and visualization of the short and long-term local behavior of this pandemic.
MeSH term(s)	COVID-19/epidemiology ; Chile/epidemiology ; Forecasting ; Humans ; Models, Statistical
Language	English
Publishing date	2021-02-12
Publishing country	Chile
Document type	Journal Article
ZDB-ID	2818022-7
ISSN	0717-6384 ; 0717-6384
ISSN (online)	0717-6384
ISSN	0717-6384
DOI	10.5867/medwave.2021.01.8119
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Article: Parasite Burden of

Liempi, Daniela / Zulantay, Inés / Varela, Nelson M / Canals, Mauricio / Guevara, Andrés / Poulsen, Nicolás / Apt, Werner

Microorganisms

2024 Volume 12, Issue 2

Abstract: The objective of this study was to compare, by qPCR, the circulating blood parasite load ... ...

Abstract	The objective of this study was to compare, by qPCR, the circulating blood parasite load of
Language	English
Publishing date	2024-01-25
Publishing country	Switzerland
Document type	Journal Article
ZDB-ID	2720891-6
ISSN	2076-2607
ISSN	2076-2607
DOI	10.3390/microorganisms12020249
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Article ; Online: Direct impact of COVID-19 vaccination in Chile: averted cases, hospitalizations, ICU admissions, and deaths.

Brault, Antoine / Hart, Andrew / Uribe, Paula / Prado, Jorge / San Martín, Jaime / Maass, Alejandro / Canals, Mauricio

BMC infectious diseases

2024 Volume 24, Issue 1, Page(s) 467

Abstract: Background: Chile rapidly implemented an extensive COVID-19 vaccination campaign, deploying a diversity of vaccines with a strategy that prioritized the elderly and individuals with comorbidities. This study aims to assess the direct impact of ... ...

Abstract	Background: Chile rapidly implemented an extensive COVID-19 vaccination campaign, deploying a diversity of vaccines with a strategy that prioritized the elderly and individuals with comorbidities. This study aims to assess the direct impact of vaccination on the number of COVID-19 related cases, hospital admissions, ICU admissions and deaths averted during the first year and a half of the campaign. Methods: Via Chile's transparency law, we obtained access to weekly event counts categorized by vaccination status and age. Integrating this data with publicly available census and vaccination coverage information, we conducted a comparative analysis of weekly incidence rates between vaccinated and unvaccinated groups from December 20, 2020 to July 2, 2022 to estimate the direct impact of vaccination in terms of the number of cases, hospitalizations, ICU admissions and deaths averted, using an approach that avoids the need to explicitly specify the effectiveness of each vaccine deployed. Results: We estimated that, from December 20, 2020 to July 2, 2022 the vaccination campaign directly prevented 1,030,648 (95% Confidence Interval: 1,016,975-1,044,321) cases, 268,784 (95% CI: 264,524-273,045) hospitalizations, 85,830 (95% CI: 83,466-88,194) ICU admissions and 75,968 (95% CI: 73,909-78,028) deaths related to COVID-19 among individuals aged 16 years and older. This corresponds to a reduction of 26% of cases, 66% of hospital admissions, 70% of ICU admissions and 67% of deaths compared to a scenario without vaccination. Individuals 55 years old or older represented 67% of hospitalizations, 73% of ICU admissions and 89% of deaths related to COVID-19 prevented. Conclusions: This study highlights the role of Chile's vaccination campaign in reducing COVID-19 disease burden, with the most substantial reductions observed in severe outcomes.
MeSH term(s)	Humans ; Chile/epidemiology ; COVID-19/prevention & control ; COVID-19/mortality ; COVID-19/epidemiology ; COVID-19 Vaccines/administration & dosage ; Hospitalization/statistics & numerical data ; Intensive Care Units/statistics & numerical data ; Middle Aged ; Adult ; Aged ; Adolescent ; SARS-CoV-2 ; Vaccination/statistics & numerical data ; Young Adult ; Male ; Female ; Immunization Programs/statistics & numerical data ; Incidence ; Child
Chemical Substances	COVID-19 Vaccines
Language	English
Publishing date	2024-05-03
Publishing country	England
Document type	Journal Article ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
ZDB-ID	2041550-3
ISSN	1471-2334 ; 1471-2334
ISSN (online)	1471-2334
ISSN	1471-2334
DOI	10.1186/s12879-024-09304-1
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Article ; Online: Estimación del número reproductivo efectivo del brote de sarampión 2018-2019 en Chile.

Canals, Mauricio / Gallegos, Doris / Avendaño, L Fidel

Revista chilena de infectologia : organo oficial de la Sociedad Chilena de Infectologia

2020 Volume 37, Issue 3, Page(s) 231–236

Abstract: Background: Measles cases are reemerging in many countries across the globe. There was an outbreak of imported measles between November 2018 and February 2019 in Chile, raising concern among the public and health authorities. Many were worried about the ...

Title translation	Estimation of the effective reproduction number of measles 2018-2019 in Chile.
Abstract	Background: Measles cases are reemerging in many countries across the globe. There was an outbreak of imported measles between November 2018 and February 2019 in Chile, raising concern among the public and health authorities. Many were worried about the Chilean measles herd immunity, a factor that relates to the reproductive capacity of the virus (measure of transmissibility of a pathogen). Aim: Here we estimate the effective reproductive number (Re) of this measles outbreak. Results: Although the estimate is highly uncertain due to the low number of cases and the absence of homogeneous mixing of the population, we found Re was approximately 1.5. Discussion and conclusions: Consequently we estimated about 90,3 % had measles immunity, consistent with administrative estimates from the Ministry of Health. These results suggest the Chilean population has established herd immunity against the introduction of imported measles cases, reflecting adequate preventive management of this disease.
MeSH term(s)	Chile ; Disease Outbreaks ; Humans ; Immunity, Herd ; Measles ; Measles Vaccine ; Vaccination
Chemical Substances	Measles Vaccine
Language	Spanish
Publishing date	2020-08-27
Publishing country	Chile
Document type	Journal Article
ZDB-ID	2048815-4
ISSN	0717-6341 ; 0716-1018
ISSN (online)	0717-6341
ISSN	0716-1018
DOI	10.4067/s0716-10182020000300231
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Article ; Online: Estimaciones de la distribución espacial del riesgo relativo de mortalidad por las principales zoonosis en Chile: enfermedad de Chagas, hidatidosis, síndrome cardiopulmonar por hantavirus y leptospirosis.

Reyes, Rodolfo / Yohannessen, Karla / Ayala, Salvador / Canals, Mauricio

Revista chilena de infectologia : organo oficial de la Sociedad Chilena de Infectologia

2020 Volume 36, Issue 5, Page(s) 599–606

Abstract: Background: Zoonoses are infections caused by all types of etiological transmissible agents from vertebrate animals to humans. During the last decades, the risk to health caused by different zoonoses has been a consequence of the natural distribution of ...

Title translation	Estimates of the spatial distribution of the relative risk of mortality of the main zoonoses in Chile: Chagas disease, hydatidosis, Hantavirus cardiopulmonary syndrome and leptospirosis.
Abstract	Background: Zoonoses are infections caused by all types of etiological transmissible agents from vertebrate animals to humans. During the last decades, the risk to health caused by different zoonoses has been a consequence of the natural distribution of the different etiological agents and by the emergence and reemergence of these diseases. Aim: To study the distribution of the risk of mortality of the four main zoonoses in continental Chile, based on national mortality data, with the objective of visualizing geographically where to focus the control efforts of these diseases. Methods: Relative risk was estimated by means of Bayesian Statistics. Results: The distribution in Chile of the main zoonoses was obtained. Discussion/conclusion: The risk maps obtained show a parasitic disease transmitted by high-risk vectors in the north, Chagas disease; a parasitic disease of biological communities in which man is an accidental host, associated with livestock areas, more prevalent in the south, hydatidosis; a bacterial disease transmitted by vertebrates, especially by rodents, where water is an important vehicle, dominant in the center, leptospirosis; and a viral disease transmitted by rodents, very dominant in the south, the hantavirus infection.
MeSH term(s)	Animals ; Chagas Disease/epidemiology ; Chagas Disease/etiology ; Chile/epidemiology ; Echinococcosis/epidemiology ; Echinococcosis/etiology ; Female ; Geography ; Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome/epidemiology ; Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome/etiology ; Humans ; Leptospirosis/epidemiology ; Leptospirosis/etiology ; Male ; Prevalence ; Risk Assessment ; Risk Factors ; Zoonoses/epidemiology ; Zoonoses/etiology
Language	Spanish
Publishing date	2020-01-03
Publishing country	Chile
Document type	Journal Article
ZDB-ID	2048815-4
ISSN	0717-6341 ; 0716-1018
ISSN (online)	0717-6341
ISSN	0716-1018
DOI	10.4067/S0716-10182019000500599
Database	MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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Article ; Online: Temporal and geographic analysis of trichinellosis incidence in Chile with risk assessment.

Landaeta-Aqueveque, Carlos / Ayala, Salvador / Poblete-Toledo, Denis / Canals, Mauricio

Parasites & vectors

2021 Volume 14, Issue 1, Page(s) 282

Abstract: Trichinellosis is a foodborne disease caused by several Trichinella species around the world. In Chile, the domestic cycle was fairly well-studied in previous decades, but has been neglected in recent years. The aims of this study were to analyze, ... ...

Abstract	Trichinellosis is a foodborne disease caused by several Trichinella species around the world. In Chile, the domestic cycle was fairly well-studied in previous decades, but has been neglected in recent years. The aims of this study were to analyze, geographically, the incidence of trichinellosis in Chile to assess the relative risk and to analyze the incidence rate fluctuation in the last decades. Using temporal data spanning 1964-2019, as well as geographical data from 2010 to 2019, the time series of cases was analyzed with ARIMA models to explore trends and periodicity. The Dickey-Fuller test was used to study trends, and the Portmanteau test was used to study white noise in the model residuals. The Besag-York-Mollie (BYM) model was used to create Bayesian maps of the level of risk relative to that expected by the overall population. The association of the relative risk with the number of farmed swine was assessed with Spearman's correlation. The number of annual cases varied between 5 and 220 (mean: 65.13); the annual rate of reported cases varied between 0.03 and 1.9 cases per 10
MeSH term(s)	Animals ; Bayes Theorem ; Chile/epidemiology ; Disease Outbreaks ; Geographic Mapping ; History, 20th Century ; History, 21st Century ; Incidence ; Risk Assessment ; Swine ; Swine Diseases/epidemiology ; Trichinella ; Trichinellosis/epidemiology ; Trichinellosis/history
Language	English
Publishing date	2021-05-26
Publishing country	England
Document type	Historical Article ; Journal Article
ZDB-ID	2409480-8
ISSN	1756-3305 ; 1756-3305
ISSN (online)	1756-3305
ISSN	1756-3305
DOI	10.1186/s13071-021-04783-6
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Article: Temporal and geographic analysis of trichinellosis incidence in Chile with risk assessment

Landaeta-Aqueveque, Carlos / Ayala, Salvador / Poblete-Toledo, Denis / Canals, Mauricio

Parasites & vectors. 2021 Dec., v. 14, no. 1

2021

Abstract	Trichinellosis is a foodborne disease caused by several Trichinella species around the world. In Chile, the domestic cycle was fairly well-studied in previous decades, but has been neglected in recent years. The aims of this study were to analyze, geographically, the incidence of trichinellosis in Chile to assess the relative risk and to analyze the incidence rate fluctuation in the last decades. Using temporal data spanning 1964–2019, as well as geographical data from 2010 to 2019, the time series of cases was analyzed with ARIMA models to explore trends and periodicity. The Dickey-Fuller test was used to study trends, and the Portmanteau test was used to study white noise in the model residuals. The Besag-York-Mollie (BYM) model was used to create Bayesian maps of the level of risk relative to that expected by the overall population. The association of the relative risk with the number of farmed swine was assessed with Spearman’s correlation. The number of annual cases varied between 5 and 220 (mean: 65.13); the annual rate of reported cases varied between 0.03 and 1.9 cases per 10⁵ inhabitants (mean: 0.53). The cases of trichinellosis in Chile showed a downward trend that has become more evident since the 1980s. No periodicities were detected via the autocorrelation function. Communes (the smallest geographical administrative subdivision) with high incidence rates and high relative risk were mostly observed in the Araucanía region. The relative risk of the commune was significantly associated with the number of farmed pigs and boar (Sus scrofa Linnaeus, 1758). The results allowed us to state that trichinellosis is not a (re)emerging disease in Chile, but the severe economic poverty rate of the Mapuche Indigenous peoples and the high number of backyard and free-ranging pigs seem to be associated with the high risk of trichinellosis in the Araucanía region.
Keywords	Bayesian theory ; Sus scrofa ; Trichinella ; autocorrelation ; boars ; foodborne illness ; models ; periodicity ; poverty ; relative risk ; risk assessment ; spatial data ; time series analysis ; trichinosis ; Chile
Language	English
Dates of publication	2021-12
Size	p. 282.
Publishing place	BioMed Central
Document type	Article
ZDB-ID	2409480-8
ISSN	1756-3305
ISSN	1756-3305
DOI	10.1186/s13071-021-04783-6
Database	NAL-Catalogue (AGRICOLA)

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