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Article ; Online: Density forecasting of conjunctivitis burden using high-dimensional environmental time series data.

Lim, Jue Tao / Choo, Esther Li Wen / Janhavi, A / Tan, Kelvin Bryan / Abisheganaden, John / Dickens, Borame

2023 Volume 44, Page(s) 100694

Abstract: As one of the most common eye conditions being presented at clinics, acute conjunctivitis puts substantial strain on primary health resources. To reduce this public health burden, it is important to forecast and provide forward guidance to policymakers ... ...

Abstract	As one of the most common eye conditions being presented at clinics, acute conjunctivitis puts substantial strain on primary health resources. To reduce this public health burden, it is important to forecast and provide forward guidance to policymakers by estimating conjunctivitis trends, taking into account factors which influence transmission. Using a high-dimensional set of ambient air pollution and meteorological data, this study describes new approaches to point and probabilistic forecasting of conjunctivitis burden which can be readily translated to other infectious diseases. Over the period of 2012 - 2022, we show that simple models without environmental data provided better point forecasts but the more complex models which optimized predictive accuracy and combined multiple predictors demonstrated superior density forecast performance. These results were shown to be consistent over periods with and without structural breaks in transmission. Furthermore, ecological analysis using post-selection inference showed that increases in SO
MeSH term(s)	Humans ; Time Factors ; Air Pollution/analysis ; Communicable Diseases/epidemiology ; Disease Outbreaks ; Conjunctivitis/epidemiology
Language	English
Publishing date	2023-06-03
Publishing country	Netherlands
Document type	Journal Article ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
ZDB-ID	2467993-8
ISSN	1878-0067 ; 1755-4365
ISSN (online)	1878-0067
ISSN	1755-4365
DOI	10.1016/j.epidem.2023.100694
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Article ; Online: Non-linear associations between meteorological factors, ambient air pollutants and major mosquito-borne diseases in Thailand.

Tewari, Pranav / Ma, Pei / Gan, Gregory / Janhavi, A / Choo, Esther Li Wen / Koo, Joel Ruihan / Dickens, Borame Lee / Lim, Jue Tao

PLoS neglected tropical diseases

2023 Volume 17, Issue 12, Page(s) e0011763

Abstract: Background: Transmission intensity for mosquito-borne diseases are highly heterogenous and multi-factorial. Understanding risk factors associated to disease transmission allow the optimization of vector control. This study sets out to understand and ... ...

Abstract	Background: Transmission intensity for mosquito-borne diseases are highly heterogenous and multi-factorial. Understanding risk factors associated to disease transmission allow the optimization of vector control. This study sets out to understand and compare the combined anthropogenic and environmental risk factors of four major mosquito-borne diseases, dengue, malaria, chikungunya and Japanese encephalitis in Thailand. Methods: An integrated analysis of mosquito-borne diseases, meteorological and ambient air pollutants of 76 provinces of Thailand was conducted over 2003-2021. We explored the use of generalized linear models and generalized additive models to consider both linear and non-linear associations between meteorological factors, ambient air pollutants and mosquito-borne disease incidence. Different assumptions on spatio-temporal dependence and nonlinearity were considered through province-specific and panel models, as well as different spline functions. Disease-specific model evidence was assessed to select best-fit models for epidemiological inference downstream. Results: Analyses indicated several findings which can be generally applied to all diseases explored: (1) higher AH above mean values was positively associated with disease case counts (2) higher total precipitation above mean values was positively associated with disease case counts (3) extremely high temperatures were negatively associated with disease case counts (4) higher SO2 and PM2.5 surface concentrations were negatively associated with disease case counts. However, the relationships between disease and RH, non-extreme temperatures and CO surface concentration were more mixed, with directions of associations changing across the different diseases considered. Conclusions: This study found protective and enhancing effects of meteorological and ambient air pollutant factors on mosquito-borne diseases burdens in Thailand. Further studies should employ these factors to understand and predict risk factors associated with mosquito-borne disease transmission.
MeSH term(s)	Animals ; Humans ; Air Pollutants/adverse effects ; Air Pollutants/analysis ; Air Pollution/adverse effects ; Air Pollution/analysis ; Environmental Pollutants/analysis ; Thailand/epidemiology ; Mosquito-Borne Diseases ; Temperature
Chemical Substances	Air Pollutants ; Environmental Pollutants
Language	English
Publishing date	2023-12-27
Publishing country	United States
Document type	Journal Article
ZDB-ID	2429704-5
ISSN	1935-2735 ; 1935-2735
ISSN (online)	1935-2735
ISSN	1935-2735
DOI	10.1371/journal.pntd.0011763
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Article ; Online: Association between ambient air pollutants and upper respiratory tract infection and pneumonia disease burden in Thailand from 2000 to 2022: a high frequency ecological analysis.

Choo, Esther Li Wen / Janhavi, A / Koo, Joel Ruihan / Yim, Steve H L / Dickens, Borame L / Lim, Jue Tao

BMC infectious diseases

2023 Volume 23, Issue 1, Page(s) 379

Abstract: Background: A pertinent risk factor of upper respiratory tract infections (URTIs) and pneumonia is the exposure to major ambient air pollutants, with short term exposures to different air pollutants being shown to exacerbate several respiratory ... ...

Abstract	Background: A pertinent risk factor of upper respiratory tract infections (URTIs) and pneumonia is the exposure to major ambient air pollutants, with short term exposures to different air pollutants being shown to exacerbate several respiratory conditions. Methods: Here, using disease surveillance data comprising of reported disease case counts at the province level, high frequency ambient air pollutant and climate data in Thailand, we delineated the association between ambient air pollution and URTI/Pneumonia burden in Thailand from 2000 - 2022. We developed mixed-data sampling methods and estimation strategies to account for the high frequency nature of ambient air pollutant concentration data. This was used to evaluate the effects past concentrations of fine particulate matter (PM Results: Across provinces, we found that past increases in CO, SO Conclusions: By developing a novel statistical methodology, we prevented subjective variable selection and discretization bias to detect associations, and provided a robust estimate on the effect of ambient air pollutants on URTI and pneumonia burden over a large spatial scale.
MeSH term(s)	Humans ; Air Pollutants/adverse effects ; Air Pollutants/analysis ; Environmental Pollutants/analysis ; Thailand/epidemiology ; Particulate Matter/adverse effects ; Particulate Matter/analysis ; Pneumonia/epidemiology ; Pneumonia/etiology ; Respiratory Tract Infections/epidemiology ; Environmental Exposure/adverse effects ; Environmental Exposure/analysis
Chemical Substances	Air Pollutants ; Environmental Pollutants ; Particulate Matter
Language	English
Publishing date	2023-06-06
Publishing country	England
Document type	Journal Article
ZDB-ID	2041550-3
ISSN	1471-2334 ; 1471-2334
ISSN (online)	1471-2334
ISSN	1471-2334
DOI	10.1186/s12879-023-08185-0
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Article ; Online: Revealing two dynamic dengue epidemic clusters in Thailand.

Lim, Jue Tao / Han, Yiting / Dickens, Borame Sue Lee / Choo, Esther Li Wen / Chew, Lawrence Zheng Xiong / Cook, Alex R

BMC infectious diseases

2020 Volume 20, Issue 1, Page(s) 927

Abstract: Background: Thailand is home to around 69 million individuals. Dengue is hyper-endemic and all 4 serotypes are in active circulation in the country. Dengue outbreaks occur almost annually within Thailand in at least one province but the spatio-temporal ... ...

Abstract	Background: Thailand is home to around 69 million individuals. Dengue is hyper-endemic and all 4 serotypes are in active circulation in the country. Dengue outbreaks occur almost annually within Thailand in at least one province but the spatio-temporal and environmental interface of these outbreaks has not been studied. Methods: We develop Bayesian regime switching (BRS) models to characterize outbreaks, their persistence and infer their likelihood of occurrence across time for each administrative province where dengue case counts are collected. BRS was compared against two other classification tools and their agreement is assessed. We further examine how these spatio-temporal clusters of outbreak clusters arise by comparing reported dengue case counts, urban population, urban land cover, climate and flight volumes on the province level. Results: Two dynamic dengue epidemic clusters were found nationally. One cluster consists of 47 provinces and is highly outbreak prone. Provinces with a large number of case counts, urban population, urban land cover and incoming flight passengers are associated to the epidemic prone cluster of dengue. Climate has an effect on determining the probability of outbreaks over time within provinces, but have less influence on whether provinces belong to the epidemic prone cluster. BRS found high agreement with other classification tools. Conclusions: Importation and urbanization drives the risk of outbreaks across regions strongly. In provinces estimated to have high epidemic persistence, more resource allocation to vector control should be applied to those localities as heightened transmission counts are likely to occur over a longer period of time. Clustering of epidemic and non-epidemic prone areas also highlights the need for prioritization of resource allocation for disease mitigation over provinces in Thailand.
MeSH term(s)	Bayes Theorem ; Climate ; Cluster Analysis ; Dengue/epidemiology ; Dengue/transmission ; Dengue/virology ; Dengue Virus/genetics ; Endemic Diseases ; Epidemics ; Health Care Rationing ; Humans ; Models, Statistical ; Serogroup ; Thailand/epidemiology ; Urban Population ; Urbanization
Language	English
Publishing date	2020-12-04
Publishing country	England
Document type	Journal Article
ISSN	1471-2334
ISSN (online)	1471-2334
DOI	10.1186/s12879-020-05666-4
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Article ; Online: Impact of sars-cov-2 interventions on dengue transmission.

Lim, Jue Tao / Dickens, Borame Sue Lee / Chew, Lawrence Zheng Xiong / Choo, Esther Li Wen / Koo, Joel Ruihan / Aik, Joel / Ng, Lee Ching / Cook, Alex R

PLoS neglected tropical diseases

2020 Volume 14, Issue 10, Page(s) e0008719

Abstract: An estimated 105 million dengue infections occur per year across 120 countries, where traditional vector control is the primary control strategy to reduce contact between mosquito vectors and people. The ongoing sars-cov-2 pandemic has resulted in ... ...

Abstract	An estimated 105 million dengue infections occur per year across 120 countries, where traditional vector control is the primary control strategy to reduce contact between mosquito vectors and people. The ongoing sars-cov-2 pandemic has resulted in dramatic reductions in human mobility due to social distancing measures; the effects on vector-borne illnesses are not known. Here we examine the pre and post differences of dengue case counts in Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand, and estimate the effects of social distancing as a treatment effect whilst adjusting for temporal confounders. We found that social distancing is expected to lead to 4.32 additional cases per 100,000 individuals in Thailand per month, which equates to 170 more cases per month in the Bangkok province (95% CI: 100-242) and 2008 cases in the country as a whole (95% CI: 1170-2846). Social distancing policy estimates for Thailand were also found to be robust to model misspecification, and variable addition and omission. Conversely, no significant impact on dengue transmission was found in Singapore or Malaysia. Across country disparities in social distancing policy effects on reported dengue cases are reasoned to be driven by differences in workplace-residence structure, with an increase in transmission risk of arboviruses from social distancing primarily through heightened exposure to vectors in elevated time spent at residences, demonstrating the need to understand the effects of location on dengue transmission risk under novel population mixing conditions such as those under social distancing policies.
MeSH term(s)	Animals ; Betacoronavirus ; COVID-19 ; Communicable Disease Control/methods ; Coronavirus Infections/epidemiology ; Coronavirus Infections/prevention & control ; Dengue/epidemiology ; Dengue/transmission ; Humans ; Malaysia/epidemiology ; Mosquito Vectors ; Pandemics/prevention & control ; Pneumonia, Viral/epidemiology ; Pneumonia, Viral/prevention & control ; SARS-CoV-2 ; Singapore/epidemiology ; Social Isolation ; Thailand/epidemiology
Keywords	covid19
Language	English
Publishing date	2020-10-29
Publishing country	United States
Document type	Journal Article ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
ZDB-ID	2429704-5
ISSN	1935-2735 ; 1935-2735
ISSN (online)	1935-2735
ISSN	1935-2735
DOI	10.1371/journal.pntd.0008719
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Article ; Online: Increased Dengue Transmissions in Singapore Attributable to SARS-CoV-2 Social Distancing Measures.

Lim, Jue Tao / Chew, Lawrence Zheng Xiong / Choo, Esther Li Wen / Dickens, Borame Sue Lee / Ong, Janet / Aik, Joel / Ng, Lee Ching / Cook, Alex R

The Journal of infectious diseases

2020 Volume 223, Issue 3, Page(s) 399–402

Abstract: Social distancing (SD) measures aimed at curbing the spread of SARS-CoV-2 remain an important public health intervention. Little is known about the collateral impact of reduced mobility on the risk of other communicable diseases. We used differences in ... ...

Abstract	Social distancing (SD) measures aimed at curbing the spread of SARS-CoV-2 remain an important public health intervention. Little is known about the collateral impact of reduced mobility on the risk of other communicable diseases. We used differences in dengue case counts pre- and post implementation of SD measures and exploited heterogeneity in SD treatment effects among different age groups in Singapore to identify the spillover effects of SD measures. SD policy caused an increase of over 37.2% in dengue cases from baseline. Additional measures to preemptively mitigate the risk of other communicable diseases must be considered before the implementation/reimplementation of SARS-CoV-2 SD measures.
MeSH term(s)	Adolescent ; Adult ; Aged ; COVID-19/epidemiology ; COVID-19/transmission ; COVID-19/virology ; Child ; Child, Preschool ; Dengue/epidemiology ; Dengue/transmission ; Dengue/virology ; Humans ; Middle Aged ; Physical Distancing ; Public Health ; Risk Factors ; SARS-CoV-2/isolation & purification ; Singapore/epidemiology ; Young Adult
Keywords	covid19
Language	English
Publishing date	2020-09-30
Publishing country	United States
Document type	Journal Article ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
ZDB-ID	3019-3
ISSN	1537-6613 ; 0022-1899
ISSN (online)	1537-6613
ISSN	0022-1899
DOI	10.1093/infdis/jiaa619
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Article ; Online: Revealing regional disparities in the transmission potential of SARS-CoV-2 from interventions in Southeast Asia.

Lim, Jue Tao / Dickens, Borame Sue Lee / Choo, Esther Li Wen / Chew, Lawrence Zheng Xiong / Koo, Joel Rui Han / Tam, Clarence / Park, Minah / Cook, Alex R

Proceedings. Biological sciences

2020 Volume 287, Issue 1933, Page(s) 20201173

Abstract: SARS-CoV-2 is a new pathogen responsible for the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak. Southeast Asia was the first region to be affected outside China, and although COVID-19 cases have been reported in all countries of Southeast Asia, both the ... ...

Abstract	SARS-CoV-2 is a new pathogen responsible for the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak. Southeast Asia was the first region to be affected outside China, and although COVID-19 cases have been reported in all countries of Southeast Asia, both the policies and epidemic trajectories differ substantially, potentially due to marked differences in social distancing measures that have been implemented by governments in the region. This paper studies the across-country relationships between social distancing and each population's response to policy, the subsequent effects of these responses to the transmissibility and epidemic trajectories of SARS-CoV-2. The analysis couples COVID-19 case counts with real-time mobility data across Southeast Asia to estimate the effects of host population response to social distancing policy and the subsequent effects on the transmissibility and epidemic trajectories of SARS-CoV-2. A novel inference strategy for the time-varying reproduction number is developed to allow explicit inference of the effects of social distancing on the transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 through a regression structure. This framework replicates the observed epidemic trajectories across most Southeast Asian countries, provides estimates of the effects of social distancing on the transmissibility of disease and can simulate epidemic histories conditional on changes in the degree of intervention scenarios and compliance within Southeast Asia.
MeSH term(s)	Asia, Southeastern/epidemiology ; Betacoronavirus ; COVID-19 ; Communicable Disease Control/methods ; Coronavirus Infections/epidemiology ; Coronavirus Infections/prevention & control ; Coronavirus Infections/transmission ; Health Policy ; Humans ; Pandemics/prevention & control ; Pneumonia, Viral/epidemiology ; Pneumonia, Viral/prevention & control ; Pneumonia, Viral/transmission ; Quarantine/legislation & jurisprudence ; Quarantine/methods ; SARS-CoV-2
Keywords	covid19
Language	English
Publishing date	2020-08-26
Publishing country	England
Document type	Journal Article ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
ZDB-ID	209242-6
ISSN	1471-2954 ; 0080-4649 ; 0962-8452 ; 0950-1193
ISSN (online)	1471-2954
ISSN	0080-4649 ; 0962-8452 ; 0950-1193
DOI	10.1098/rspb.2020.1173
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Article: Impact of sars-cov-2 interventions on dengue transmission

Lim, Jue Tao / Dickens, Borame Sue Lee / Chew, Lawrence Zheng Xiong / Choo, Esther Li Wen / Koo, Joel Ruihan / Aik, Joel / Ng, Lee Ching / Cook, Alex R

PLoS Negl Trop Dis

Abstract	An estimated 105 million dengue infections occur per year across 120 countries, where traditional vector control is the primary control strategy to reduce contact between mosquito vectors and people. The ongoing sars-cov-2 pandemic has resulted in dramatic reductions in human mobility due to social distancing measures; the effects on vector-borne illnesses are not known. Here we examine the pre and post differences of dengue case counts in Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand, and estimate the effects of social distancing as a treatment effect whilst adjusting for temporal confounders. We found that social distancing is expected to lead to 4.32 additional cases per 100,000 individuals in Thailand per month, which equates to 170 more cases per month in the Bangkok province (95% CI: 100-242) and 2008 cases in the country as a whole (95% CI: 1170-2846). Social distancing policy estimates for Thailand were also found to be robust to model misspecification, and variable addition and omission. Conversely, no significant impact on dengue transmission was found in Singapore or Malaysia. Across country disparities in social distancing policy effects on reported dengue cases are reasoned to be driven by differences in workplace-residence structure, with an increase in transmission risk of arboviruses from social distancing primarily through heightened exposure to vectors in elevated time spent at residences, demonstrating the need to understand the effects of location on dengue transmission risk under novel population mixing conditions such as those under social distancing policies.
Keywords	covid19
Publisher	WHO
Document type	Article
Note	WHO #Covidence: #895055
Database	COVID19

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Article: Revealing regional disparities in the transmission potential of SARS-CoV-2 from interventions in Southeast Asia

Lim, Jue Tao / Dickens, Borame Sue Lee / Choo, Esther Li Wen / Chew, Lawrence Zheng Xiong / Koo, Joel Rui Han / Tam, Clarence / Park, Minah / Cook, Alex R

Proc Biol Sci

Abstract	SARS-CoV-2 is a new pathogen responsible for the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak. Southeast Asia was the first region to be affected outside China, and although COVID-19 cases have been reported in all countries of Southeast Asia, both the policies and epidemic trajectories differ substantially, potentially due to marked differences in social distancing measures that have been implemented by governments in the region. This paper studies the across-country relationships between social distancing and each population's response to policy, the subsequent effects of these responses to the transmissibility and epidemic trajectories of SARS-CoV-2. The analysis couples COVID-19 case counts with real-time mobility data across Southeast Asia to estimate the effects of host population response to social distancing policy and the subsequent effects on the transmissibility and epidemic trajectories of SARS-CoV-2. A novel inference strategy for the time-varying reproduction number is developed to allow explicit inference of the effects of social distancing on the transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 through a regression structure. This framework replicates the observed epidemic trajectories across most Southeast Asian countries, provides estimates of the effects of social distancing on the transmissibility of disease and can simulate epidemic histories conditional on changes in the degree of intervention scenarios and compliance within Southeast Asia.
Keywords	covid19
Publisher	WHO
Document type	Article
Note	WHO #Covidence: #742024
Database	COVID19

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Article ; Online: Increased Dengue Transmissions in Singapore Attributable to SARS-CoV-2 Social Distancing Measures

Lim, Jue Tao / Chew, Lawrence Zheng Xiong / Choo, Esther Li Wen / Dickens, Borame Sue Lee / Ong, Janet / Aik, Joel / Ng, Lee Ching / Cook, Alex R

The Journal of Infectious Diseases ; ISSN 0022-1899 1537-6613

2020

Abstract: Abstract Social distancing (SD) measures aimed at curbing the spread of SARS-CoV-2 remain an important public health intervention. Little is known about the collateral impact of reduced mobility on the risk of other communicable diseases. We used ... ...

Abstract	Abstract Social distancing (SD) measures aimed at curbing the spread of SARS-CoV-2 remain an important public health intervention. Little is known about the collateral impact of reduced mobility on the risk of other communicable diseases. We used differences in dengue case counts pre- and post implementation of SD measures and exploited heterogeneity in SD treatment effects among different age groups in Singapore to identify the spillover effects of SD measures. SD policy caused an increase of over 37.2% in dengue cases from baseline. Additional measures to preemptively mitigate the risk of other communicable diseases must be considered before the implementation/reimplementation of SARS-CoV-2 SD measures.
Keywords	Immunology and Allergy ; Infectious Diseases ; covid19
Language	English
Publisher	Oxford University Press (OUP)
Publishing country	uk
Document type	Article ; Online
DOI	10.1093/infdis/jiaa619
Database	BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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