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  1. Article ; Online: Revealing uncertainty in the status of biodiversity change.

    Johnson, T F / Beckerman, A P / Childs, D Z / Webb, T J / Evans, K L / Griffiths, C A / Capdevila, P / Clements, C F / Besson, M / Gregory, R D / Thomas, G H / Delmas, E / Freckleton, R P

    Nature

    2024  Volume 628, Issue 8009, Page(s) 788–794

    Abstract: Biodiversity faces unprecedented threats from rapid global ... ...

    Abstract Biodiversity faces unprecedented threats from rapid global change
    MeSH term(s) Animals ; Biodiversity ; Conservation of Natural Resources/methods ; Conservation of Natural Resources/trends ; Datasets as Topic ; Phylogeny ; Spatio-Temporal Analysis ; Time Factors ; Uncertainty
    Language English
    Publishing date 2024-03-27
    Publishing country England
    Document type Journal Article ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't ; Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S.
    ZDB-ID 120714-3
    ISSN 1476-4687 ; 0028-0836
    ISSN (online) 1476-4687
    ISSN 0028-0836
    DOI 10.1038/s41586-024-07236-z
    Database MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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    In stock of ZB MED Cologne/Königswinter

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  2. Article ; Online: Effect of time series length and resolution on abundance- and trait-based early warning signals of population declines.

    Arkilanian, A A / Clements, C F / Ozgul, A / Baruah, G

    Ecology

    2020  Volume 101, Issue 7, Page(s) e03040

    Abstract: Natural populations are increasingly threatened with collapse at the hands of anthropogenic effects. Predicting population collapse with the help of generic early warning signals (EWS) may provide a prospective tool for identifying species or populations ...

    Abstract Natural populations are increasingly threatened with collapse at the hands of anthropogenic effects. Predicting population collapse with the help of generic early warning signals (EWS) may provide a prospective tool for identifying species or populations at highest risk. However, pattern-to-process methods such as EWS have a multitude of challenges to overcome to be useful, including the low signal-to-noise ratio of ecological systems and the need for high quality time series data. The inclusion of trait dynamics with EWS has been proposed as a more robust tool to predict population collapse. However, the length and resolution of available time series are highly variable from one system to another, especially when generation time is considered. As yet, it remains unknown how this variability with regards to generation time will alter the efficacy of EWS. Here we take both a simulation- and experimental-based approach to assess the impacts of relative time series length and resolution on the forecasting ability of EWS. We show that EWS' performance decreases with decreasing time-series length. However, there was no evident decrease in EWS performance as resolution decreased. Our simulations suggest a relative time series length between 10 and five generations as a minimum requirement for accurate forecasting by abundance-based EWS. However, when trait information is included alongside abundance-based EWS, we find positive signals at lengths one-half of what was required without them. We suggest that, in systems where specific traits are known to affect demography, trait data should be monitored and included alongside abundance data to improve forecasting reliability.
    MeSH term(s) Animals ; Ecosystem ; Phenotype ; Population Dynamics ; Prospective Studies ; Reproducibility of Results
    Language English
    Publishing date 2020-03-30
    Publishing country United States
    Document type Journal Article ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
    ZDB-ID 2010140-5
    ISSN 1939-9170 ; 0012-9658
    ISSN (online) 1939-9170
    ISSN 0012-9658
    DOI 10.1002/ecy.3040
    Database MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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  3. Article: Effect of time series length and resolution on abundance‐ and trait‐based early warning signals of population declines

    Arkilanian, A. A / Clements, C. F / Ozgul, A / Baruah, G

    Ecology. 2020 July, v. 101, no. 7

    2020  

    Abstract: Natural populations are increasingly threatened with collapse at the hands of anthropogenic effects. Predicting population collapse with the help of generic early warning signals (EWS) may provide a prospective tool for identifying species or populations ...

    Abstract Natural populations are increasingly threatened with collapse at the hands of anthropogenic effects. Predicting population collapse with the help of generic early warning signals (EWS) may provide a prospective tool for identifying species or populations at highest risk. However, pattern‐to‐process methods such as EWS have a multitude of challenges to overcome to be useful, including the low signal‐to‐noise ratio of ecological systems and the need for high quality time series data. The inclusion of trait dynamics with EWS has been proposed as a more robust tool to predict population collapse. However, the length and resolution of available time series are highly variable from one system to another, especially when generation time is considered. As yet, it remains unknown how this variability with regards to generation time will alter the efficacy of EWS. Here we take both a simulation‐ and experimental‐based approach to assess the impacts of relative time series length and resolution on the forecasting ability of EWS. We show that EWS’ performance decreases with decreasing time‐series length. However, there was no evident decrease in EWS performance as resolution decreased. Our simulations suggest a relative time series length between 10 and five generations as a minimum requirement for accurate forecasting by abundance‐based EWS. However, when trait information is included alongside abundance‐based EWS, we find positive signals at lengths one‐half of what was required without them. We suggest that, in systems where specific traits are known to affect demography, trait data should be monitored and included alongside abundance data to improve forecasting reliability.
    Keywords demography ; risk ; signal-to-noise ratio ; time series analysis
    Language English
    Dates of publication 2020-07
    Publishing place John Wiley & Sons, Ltd
    Document type Article
    Note NAL-AP-2-clean ; JOURNAL ARTICLE
    ZDB-ID 1797-8
    ISSN 0012-9658
    ISSN 0012-9658
    DOI 10.1002/ecy.3040
    Database NAL-Catalogue (AGRICOLA)

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  4. Article ; Online: (with research data) Revisiting the phylogeography and demography of European badgers (Meles meles) based on broad sampling, multiple markers and simulations.

    Frantz, A C / McDevitt, A D / Pope, L C / Kochan, J / Davison, J / Clements, C F / Elmeros, M / Molina-Vacas, G / Ruiz-Gonzalez, A / Balestrieri, A / Van Den Berge, K / Breyne, P / Do Linh San, E / Agren, E O / Suchentrunk, F / Schley, L / Kowalczyk, R / Kostka, B I / Cirović, D /
    Sprem, N / Colyn, M / Ghirardi, M / Racheva, V / Braun, C / Oliveira, R / Lanszki, J / Stubbe, A / Stubbe, M / Stier, N / Burke, T

    Heredity

    2014  Volume 113, Issue 5, Page(s) 443–453

    Abstract: Although the phylogeography of European mammals has been extensively investigated since the 1990s, many studies were limited in terms of sampling distribution, the number of molecular markers used and the analytical techniques employed, frequently ... ...

    Abstract Although the phylogeography of European mammals has been extensively investigated since the 1990s, many studies were limited in terms of sampling distribution, the number of molecular markers used and the analytical techniques employed, frequently leading to incomplete postglacial recolonisation scenarios. The broad-scale genetic structure of the European badger (Meles meles) is of interest as it may result from historic restriction to glacial refugia and/or recent anthropogenic impact. However, previous studies were based mostly on samples from western Europe, making it difficult to draw robust conclusions about the location of refugia, patterns of postglacial expansion and recent demography. In the present study, continent-wide sampling and analyses with multiple markers provided evidence for two glacial refugia (Iberia and southeast Europe) that contributed to the genetic variation observed in badgers in Europe today. Approximate Bayesian computation provided support for a colonisation of Scandinavia from both Iberian and southeastern refugia. In the whole of Europe, we observed a decline in genetic diversity with increasing latitude, suggesting that the reduced diversity in the peripheral populations resulted from a postglacial expansion processes. Although MSVAR v.1.3 also provided evidence for recent genetic bottlenecks in some of these peripheral populations, the simulations performed to estimate the method's power to correctly infer the past demography of our empirical populations suggested that the timing and severity of bottlenecks could not be established with certainty. We urge caution against trying to relate demographic declines inferred using MSVAR with particular historic or climatological events.
    MeSH term(s) Animals ; Bayes Theorem ; DNA, Mitochondrial/genetics ; Europe ; Evolution, Molecular ; Genetic Variation ; Genetics, Population ; Haplotypes ; Microsatellite Repeats ; Models, Genetic ; Mustelidae/genetics ; Phylogeography ; Population Dynamics
    Chemical Substances DNA, Mitochondrial
    Language English
    Publishing date 2014-04-30
    Publishing country England
    Document type Journal Article ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
    ZDB-ID 2423-5
    ISSN 1365-2540 ; 0018-067X
    ISSN (online) 1365-2540
    ISSN 0018-067X
    DOI 10.1038/hdy.2014.45
    Database MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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