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  1. AU="Corey M Peak"
  2. AU="Larsen, Mona L.V."
  3. AU=Yang Ying
  4. AU="Dekić Rozman, Svjetlana"
  5. AU="Rowe, Ashlee H"
  6. AU="Perrevoort, A"
  7. AU="Bhardwaj, Shashank"
  8. AU=Li Bo
  9. AU=Ramani Rama
  10. AU="Várnai-Händel, Alinda"
  11. AU="Kucher, Michael"
  12. AU="Blucher, E."
  13. AU="Muffels, Ruud"
  14. AU="Roufos, I"
  15. AU="Ammad Ahmad Farooqi"
  16. AU="Zawadka-Kunikowska, Monika"
  17. AU="Young, A P"
  18. AU="Danielle M. Matriano"
  19. AU="Ancona, Jennifer"
  20. AU="Abdallah G. Kfoury"
  21. AU="Zaeske, C"
  22. AU="Hammerich, Kristoff"
  23. AU="Paul J. Burgess"
  24. AU="Valek, Lucie"
  25. AU="Mandal, Surajit"
  26. AU="Krumm, Laura"
  27. AU="Shimura, Hidetoshi"
  28. AU="Munguia-Lopez, Jose Gil"
  29. AU="Eysert, Fanny"
  30. AU="Qazi Arisa, Fakhar Ali"
  31. AU="Guan, Yunshan"
  32. AU="Ayachi, Jihene"
  33. AU="Boulvard Chollet, Xavier L E"
  34. AU="Kwon, Sohee"
  35. AU=Fra-Bido Sigrid
  36. AU="Delgado, Teresa Cardoso"
  37. AU="Judy Ly"
  38. AU="E Richtig"
  39. AU="Jones, D. C."
  40. AU="Revillet, Hélène" AU="Revillet, Hélène"
  41. AU="Lee, Ji Ye"
  42. AU="Yoshinaga, Kazuaki"
  43. AU="Moturi, Krishna"
  44. AU="Loizeau, J"
  45. AU="Gentry, Matthew S"
  46. AU="Drury, Lucy S"
  47. AU="Caraman, Irina"

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  1. Artikel ; Online: Modeling the Comparative Impact of Individual Quarantine vs. Active Monitoring of Contacts for the Mitigation of COVID-19

    Corey M Peak / Rebecca Kahn / Yonatan H Grad / Lauren M Childs / Ruoran Li / Marc Lipsitch / Caroline O Buckee

    Abstract: Individual quarantine and active monitoring of contacts are core disease control strategies, particularly for emerging infectious diseases such as Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19). To estimate the comparative efficacy of these interventions to control ...

    Abstract Individual quarantine and active monitoring of contacts are core disease control strategies, particularly for emerging infectious diseases such as Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19). To estimate the comparative efficacy of these interventions to control COVID-19, we fit a stochastic branching model, comparing two sets of reported parameters for the dynamics of the disease. Our results suggest that individual quarantine may contain an outbreak of COVID-19 with a short serial interval (4.8 days) only in settings with high intervention performance where at least three-quarters of infected contacts are individually quarantined. However, in settings where this performance is unrealistically high and the outbreak of COVID-19 continues to grow, so too will the burden of the number of contacts traced for active monitoring or quarantine. In such circumstances where resources are prioritized for scalable interventions such as social distancing, we show active monitoring or individual quarantine of high-risk contacts can contribute synergistically to social distancing. To the extent that interventions based on contact tracing can be implemented, therefore, they can help mitigate the spread of COVID-19. Our model highlights the urgent need for more data on the serial interval and the extent of presymptomatic transmission in order to make data-driven policy decisions regarding the cost-benefit comparisons of individual quarantine vs. active monitoring of contacts.
    Schlagwörter covid19
    Verlag medrxiv
    Dokumenttyp Artikel ; Online
    DOI 10.1101/2020.03.05.20031088
    Datenquelle COVID19

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  2. Artikel ; Online: Prolonging herd immunity to cholera via vaccination

    Corey M Peak / Amanda L Reilly / Andrew S Azman / Caroline O Buckee

    PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol 12, Iss 2, p e

    Accounting for human mobility and waning vaccine effects.

    2018  Band 0006257

    Abstract: Oral cholera vaccination is an approach to preventing outbreaks in at-risk settings and controlling cholera in endemic settings. However, vaccine-derived herd immunity may be short-lived due to interactions between human mobility and imperfect or waning ... ...

    Abstract Oral cholera vaccination is an approach to preventing outbreaks in at-risk settings and controlling cholera in endemic settings. However, vaccine-derived herd immunity may be short-lived due to interactions between human mobility and imperfect or waning vaccine efficacy. As the supply and utilization of oral cholera vaccines grows, critical questions related to herd immunity are emerging, including: who should be targeted; when should revaccination be performed; and why have cholera outbreaks occurred in recently vaccinated populations?We use mathematical models to simulate routine and mass oral cholera vaccination in populations with varying degrees of migration, transmission intensity, and vaccine coverage. We show that migration and waning vaccine efficacy strongly influence the duration of herd immunity while birth and death rates have relatively minimal impacts. As compared to either periodic mass vaccination or routine vaccination alone, a community could be protected longer by a blended "Mass and Maintain" strategy. We show that vaccination may be best targeted at populations with intermediate degrees of mobility as compared to communities with very high or very low population turnover. Using a case study of an internally displaced person camp in South Sudan which underwent high-coverage mass vaccination in 2014 and 2015, we show that waning vaccine direct effects and high population turnover rendered the camp over 80% susceptible at the time of the cholera outbreak beginning in October 2016.Oral cholera vaccines can be powerful tools for quickly protecting a population for a period of time that depends critically on vaccine coverage, vaccine efficacy over time, and the rate of population turnover through human mobility. Due to waning herd immunity, epidemics in vaccinated communities are possible but become less likely through complementary interventions or data-driven revaccination strategies.
    Schlagwörter Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine ; RC955-962 ; Public aspects of medicine ; RA1-1270
    Sprache Englisch
    Erscheinungsdatum 2018-02-01T00:00:00Z
    Verlag Public Library of Science (PLoS)
    Dokumenttyp Artikel ; Online
    Datenquelle BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (Lebenswissenschaftliche Auswahl)

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  3. Artikel ; Online: Fractional Dosing of Yellow Fever Vaccine to Extend Supply: A Modeling Study

    Joseph T. Wu;Corey M. Peak;Gabriel M. Leung;Marc Lipsitch;

    Abstract: BackgroundThe ongoing yellow fever (YF) epidemic in Angola strains the global vaccine supply, prompting WHO to adopt dose sparing for its vaccination campaign in Kinshasa in July-August 2016. Although a 5-fold fractional-dose vaccine is similar to ... ...

    Abstract BackgroundThe ongoing yellow fever (YF) epidemic in Angola strains the global vaccine supply, prompting WHO to adopt dose sparing for its vaccination campaign in Kinshasa in July-August 2016. Although a 5-fold fractional-dose vaccine is similar to standard-dose vaccine in safety and immunogenicity, efficacy is untested. There is an urgent need to ensure the robustness of fractional-dose vaccination by elucidating the conditions under which dose fractionation would reduce transmission.\n\nMethodsWe estimate the effective reproductive number for YF in Angola using disease natural history and case report data. With simple mathematical models of YF transmission, we calculate the infection attack rate (IAR, the proportion of population infected over the course of an epidemic) under varying levels of transmissibility and five-fold fractional-dose vaccine efficacy for two vaccination scenarios: (i) random vaccination in a hypothetical population that is completely susceptible; (ii) the Kinshasa vaccination campaign in July-August 2016 with different age cutoff for fractional-dose vaccines.\n\nFindingsWe estimate the effective reproductive number early in the Angola outbreak was between 5{middle dot}2 and 7{middle dot}1. If vaccine action is all-or-nothing (i.e. a proportion VE of vaccinees receives complete and the remainder receive no protection), n-fold fractionation can dramatically reduce IAR as long as efficacy VE exceeds 1/n. This benefit threshold becomes more stringent if vaccine action is leaky (i.e. the susceptibility of each vaccinee is reduced by a factor that is equal to the vaccine efficacy VE). The age cutoff for fractional-dose vaccines chosen by the WHO for the Kinshasa vaccination campaign (namely, 2 years) provides the largest reduction in IAR if the efficacy of five-fold fractional-dose vaccines exceeds 20%.\n\nInterpretationDose fractionation is a very effective strategy for reducing infection attack rate that would be robust with a large margin for error in case fractional-dose VE is lower than expected.\n\nFundingNIH-MIDAS, HMRF-Hong Kong
    Schlagwörter covid19
    Verlag biorxiv
    Dokumenttyp Artikel ; Online
    DOI 10.1101/053421
    Datenquelle COVID19

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  4. Artikel ; Online: Fractional Dosing of Yellow Fever Vaccine to Extend Supply: A Modeling Study

    Joseph T. Wu / Corey M. Peak / Gabriel M. Leung / Marc Lipsitch

    Abstract: BackgroundThe ongoing yellow fever (YF) epidemic in Angola strains the global vaccine supply, prompting WHO to adopt dose sparing for its vaccination campaign in Kinshasa in July-August 2016. Although a 5-fold fractional-dose vaccine is similar to ... ...

    Abstract BackgroundThe ongoing yellow fever (YF) epidemic in Angola strains the global vaccine supply, prompting WHO to adopt dose sparing for its vaccination campaign in Kinshasa in July-August 2016. Although a 5-fold fractional-dose vaccine is similar to standard-dose vaccine in safety and immunogenicity, efficacy is untested. There is an urgent need to ensure the robustness of fractional-dose vaccination by elucidating the conditions under which dose fractionation would reduce transmission.MethodsWe estimate the effective reproductive number for YF in Angola using disease natural history and case report data. With simple mathematical models of YF transmission, we calculate the infection attack rate (IAR, the proportion of population infected over the course of an epidemic) under varying levels of transmissibility and five-fold fractional-dose vaccine efficacy for two vaccination scenarios: (i) random vaccination in a hypothetical population that is completely susceptible; (ii) the Kinshasa vaccination campaign in July-August 2016 with different age cutoff for fractional-dose vaccines.FindingsWe estimate the effective reproductive number early in the Angola outbreak was between 5·2 and 7·1. If vaccine action is all-or-nothing (i.e. a proportion VE of vaccinees receives complete and the remainder receive no protection), n-fold fractionation can dramatically reduce IAR as long as efficacy VE exceeds 1/n. This benefit threshold becomes more stringent if vaccine action is leaky (i.e. the susceptibility of each vaccinee is reduced by a factor that is equal to the vaccine efficacy VE). The age cutoff for fractional-dose vaccines chosen by the WHO for the Kinshasa vaccination campaign (namely, 2 years) provides the largest reduction in IAR if the efficacy of five-fold fractional-dose vaccines exceeds 20%.InterpretationDose fractionation is a very effective strategy for reducing infection attack rate that would be robust with a large margin for error in case fractional-dose VE is lower than expected.FundingNIH-MIDAS, HMRF-Hong Kong
    Schlagwörter covid19
    Verlag biorxiv
    Dokumenttyp Artikel ; Online
    DOI 10.1101/053421
    Datenquelle COVID19

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