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Article ; Online: Maritime transportation and people mobility in the early diffusion of COVID-19 in Croatia.

Cot, Corentin / Aksentijević, Dea / Jugović, Alen / Cacciapaglia, Giacomo / Mannarini, Gianandrea

2023 Volume 11, Page(s) 1183047

Abstract: Introduction: The outbreak of COVID-19 in Europe began in early 2020, leading to the emergence of several waves of infection with varying timings across European countries. The largest wave of infection occurred in August-September. Croatia, known for ... ...

Abstract	Introduction: The outbreak of COVID-19 in Europe began in early 2020, leading to the emergence of several waves of infection with varying timings across European countries. The largest wave of infection occurred in August-September. Croatia, known for being a hotspot of tourism in the Mediterranean region, raised concerns that it might have played a role in incubating the pandemic during the summer of 2020. Methods: To investigate this possibility, we conducted a data-driven study to examine the potential influence of passenger mobility to and within Croatia, utilizing various modes of transportation. To achieve this, we integrated observational datasets into the "epidemic Renormalization Group" modeling framework. Results: By comparing the models with epidemiological data, we found that in the case of Croatia in 2020, neither maritime nor train transportation played a prominent role in propagating the infection. Instead, our analysis highlighted the leading role of both road and airborne mobility in the transmission of the virus. Discussion: The proposed framework serves to test hypotheses concerning the causation of infectious waves, offering the capacity to rule out unrelated factors from consideration.
MeSH term(s)	Humans ; Croatia/epidemiology ; COVID-19/epidemiology ; Europe ; Disease Outbreaks ; Pandemics
Language	English
Publishing date	2023-08-17
Publishing country	Switzerland
Document type	Journal Article ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
ZDB-ID	2711781-9
ISSN	2296-2565 ; 2296-2565
ISSN (online)	2296-2565
ISSN	2296-2565
DOI	10.3389/fpubh.2023.1183047
Database	MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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Article ; Online: Mining Google and Apple mobility data: temporal anatomy for COVID-19 social distancing.

Cot, Corentin / Cacciapaglia, Giacomo / Sannino, Francesco

Scientific reports

2021 Volume 11, Issue 1, Page(s) 4150

Abstract: We employ the Google and Apple mobility data to identify, quantify and classify different degrees of social distancing and characterise their imprint on the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe and in the United States. We identify the period of ...

Abstract	We employ the Google and Apple mobility data to identify, quantify and classify different degrees of social distancing and characterise their imprint on the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe and in the United States. We identify the period of enacted social distancing via Google and Apple data, independently from the political decisions. Our analysis allows us to classify different shades of social distancing measures for the first wave of the pandemic. We observe a strong decrease in the infection rate occurring two to five weeks after the onset of mobility reduction. A universal time scale emerges, after which social distancing shows its impact. We further provide an actual measure of the impact of social distancing for each region, showing that the effect amounts to a reduction by 20-40% in the infection rate in Europe and 30-70% in the US.
MeSH term(s)	COVID-19/epidemiology ; COVID-19/prevention & control ; COVID-19/transmission ; Cell Phone/statistics & numerical data ; Cell Phone/trends ; Cell Phone Use/statistics & numerical data ; Cell Phone Use/trends ; Data Mining/methods ; Europe/epidemiology ; Humans ; Mobile Applications/statistics & numerical data ; Mobile Applications/trends ; Pandemics ; Physical Distancing ; Quarantine/statistics & numerical data ; Quarantine/trends ; SARS-CoV-2/isolation & purification ; United States/epidemiology
Language	English
Publishing date	2021-02-18
Publishing country	England
Document type	Journal Article ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
ZDB-ID	2615211-3
ISSN	2045-2322 ; 2045-2322
ISSN (online)	2045-2322
ISSN	2045-2322
DOI	10.1038/s41598-021-83441-4
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Article ; Online: Multiwave pandemic dynamics explained: how to tame the next wave of infectious diseases.

Cacciapaglia, Giacomo / Cot, Corentin / Sannino, Francesco

Scientific reports

2021 Volume 11, Issue 1, Page(s) 6638

Abstract: Pandemics, like the 1918 Spanish Influenza and COVID-19, spread through regions of the World in subsequent waves. Here we propose a consistent picture of the wave pattern based on the epidemic Renormalisation Group (eRG) framework, which is guided by the ...

Abstract	Pandemics, like the 1918 Spanish Influenza and COVID-19, spread through regions of the World in subsequent waves. Here we propose a consistent picture of the wave pattern based on the epidemic Renormalisation Group (eRG) framework, which is guided by the global symmetries of the system under time rescaling. We show that the rate of spreading of the disease can be interpreted as a time-dilation symmetry, while the final stage of an epidemic episode corresponds to reaching a time scale-invariant state. We find that the endemic period between two waves is a sign of instability in the system, associated to near-breaking of the time scale-invariance. This phenomenon can be described in terms of an eRG model featuring complex fixed points. Our results demonstrate that the key to control the arrival of the next wave of a pandemic is in the strolling period in between waves, i.e. when the number of infections grows linearly. Thus, limiting the virus diffusion in this period is the most effective way to prevent or delay the arrival of the next wave. In this work we establish a new guiding principle for the formulation of mid-term governmental strategies to curb pandemics and avoid recurrent waves of infections, deleterious in terms of human life loss and economic damage.
MeSH term(s)	COVID-19/epidemiology ; COVID-19/pathology ; COVID-19/virology ; Health Policy ; Humans ; Influenza, Human/epidemiology ; Influenza, Human/pathology ; Models, Theoretical ; Pandemics ; SARS-CoV-2/isolation & purification
Language	English
Publishing date	2021-03-23
Publishing country	England
Document type	Journal Article ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
ZDB-ID	2615211-3
ISSN	2045-2322 ; 2045-2322
ISSN (online)	2045-2322
ISSN	2045-2322
DOI	10.1038/s41598-021-85875-2
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Article ; Online: Second wave COVID-19 pandemics in Europe: a temporal playbook.

Cacciapaglia, Giacomo / Cot, Corentin / Sannino, Francesco

Scientific reports

2020 Volume 10, Issue 1, Page(s) 15514

Abstract: A second wave pandemic constitutes an imminent threat to society, with a potentially immense toll in terms of human lives and a devastating economic impact. We employ the epidemic Renormalisation Group (eRG) approach to pandemics, together with the first ...

Abstract	A second wave pandemic constitutes an imminent threat to society, with a potentially immense toll in terms of human lives and a devastating economic impact. We employ the epidemic Renormalisation Group (eRG) approach to pandemics, together with the first wave data for COVID-19, to efficiently simulate the dynamics of disease transmission and spreading across different European countries. The framework allows us to model, not only inter and extra European border control effects, but also the impact of social distancing for each country. We perform statistical analyses averaging on different level of human interaction across Europe and with the rest of the World. Our results are neatly summarised as an animation reporting the time evolution of the first and second waves of the European COVID-19 pandemic. Our temporal playbook of the second wave pandemic can be used by governments, financial markets, the industries and individual citizens, to efficiently time, prepare and implement local and global measures.
MeSH term(s)	Betacoronavirus ; COVID-19 ; Computer Simulation ; Coronavirus Infections/epidemiology ; Coronavirus Infections/transmission ; Europe/epidemiology ; Humans ; Pandemics ; Pneumonia, Viral/epidemiology ; Pneumonia, Viral/transmission ; SARS-CoV-2
Keywords	covid19
Language	English
Publishing date	2020-09-23
Publishing country	England
Document type	Journal Article ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
ZDB-ID	2615211-3
ISSN	2045-2322 ; 2045-2322
ISSN (online)	2045-2322
ISSN	2045-2322
DOI	10.1038/s41598-020-72611-5
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Article: Epidemiological theory of virus variants.

Cacciapaglia, Giacomo / Cot, Corentin / de Hoffer, Adele / Hohenegger, Stefan / Sannino, Francesco / Vatani, Shahram

Physica A

2022 Volume 596, Page(s) 127071

Abstract: We propose a physics-inspired mathematical model underlying the temporal evolution of competing virus variants that relies on the existence of (quasi) fixed points capturing the large time scale invariance of the dynamics. To motivate our result we first ...

Abstract	We propose a physics-inspired mathematical model underlying the temporal evolution of competing virus variants that relies on the existence of (quasi) fixed points capturing the large time scale invariance of the dynamics. To motivate our result we first modify the time-honoured compartmental models of the SIR type to account for the existence of competing variants and then show how their evolution can be naturally re-phrased in terms of flow equations ending at quasi fixed points. As the natural next step we employ (near) scale invariance to organise the time evolution of the competing variants within the effective description of the
Language	English
Publishing date	2022-02-16
Publishing country	Netherlands
Document type	Journal Article
ZDB-ID	1466577-3
ISSN	1873-2119 ; 0378-4371
ISSN (online)	1873-2119
ISSN	0378-4371
DOI	10.1016/j.physa.2022.127071
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Article ; Online: The quantification of vaccine uptake in the Nordic countries and impact on key indicators of COVID-19 severity and healthcare stress level via age range comparative analysis.

Islind, Anna Sigridur / Óskarsdóttir, María / Cot, Corentin / Cacciapaglia, Giacomo / Sannino, Francesco

Scientific reports

2022 Volume 12, Issue 1, Page(s) 16891

Abstract: In this paper we analyze the impact of vaccinations on spread of the COVID-19 virus for different age groups. More specifically, we examine the deployment of vaccines in the Nordic countries in a comparative analysis where we focus on factors such as ... ...

Abstract	In this paper we analyze the impact of vaccinations on spread of the COVID-19 virus for different age groups. More specifically, we examine the deployment of vaccines in the Nordic countries in a comparative analysis where we focus on factors such as healthcare stress level and severity of disease through new infections, hospitalizations, intensive care unit (ICU) occupancy and deaths. Moreover, we analyze the impact of the various vaccine types, vaccination rate on the spread of the virus in each age group for Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway and Sweden from the start of the vaccination period in December 2020 until the end of September 2021. We perform a threefold analysis: (i) frequency analysis of infections and vaccine rates by age groups; (ii) rolling correlations between vaccination strategies, severity of COVID-19 and healthcare stress level and; (iii) we also employ the epidemic Renormalization Group (eRG) framework. The eRG is used to mathematically model wave structures, as well as the impact of vaccinations on wave dynamics. We further compare the Nordic countries with England. Our main results outline the quantification of the impact of the vaccination campaigns on age groups epidemiological data, across countries with high vaccine uptake. The data clearly shows that vaccines markedly reduce the number of new cases and the risk of serious illness.
MeSH term(s)	COVID-19/epidemiology ; COVID-19/prevention & control ; Delivery of Health Care ; Humans ; Scandinavian and Nordic Countries/epidemiology ; Vaccination ; Vaccines
Chemical Substances	Vaccines
Language	English
Publishing date	2022-10-07
Publishing country	England
Document type	Journal Article
ZDB-ID	2615211-3
ISSN	2045-2322 ; 2045-2322
ISSN (online)	2045-2322
ISSN	2045-2322
DOI	10.1038/s41598-022-21055-0
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Article ; Online: Impact of US vaccination strategy on COVID-19 wave dynamics.

Cot, Corentin / Cacciapaglia, Giacomo / Islind, Anna Sigridur / Óskarsdóttir, María / Sannino, Francesco

Scientific reports

2021 Volume 11, Issue 1, Page(s) 10960

Abstract: We employ the epidemic Renormalization Group (eRG) framework to understand, reproduce and predict the COVID-19 pandemic diffusion across the US. The human mobility across different geographical US divisions is modelled via open source flight data ... ...

Abstract	We employ the epidemic Renormalization Group (eRG) framework to understand, reproduce and predict the COVID-19 pandemic diffusion across the US. The human mobility across different geographical US divisions is modelled via open source flight data alongside the impact of social distancing for each such division. We analyse the impact of the vaccination strategy on the current pandemic wave dynamics in the US. We observe that the ongoing vaccination campaign will not impact the current pandemic wave and therefore strict social distancing measures must still be enacted. To curb the current and the next waves our results indisputably show that vaccinations alone are not enough and strict social distancing measures are required until sufficient immunity is achieved. Our results are essential for a successful vaccination strategy in the US.
MeSH term(s)	COVID-19/epidemiology ; COVID-19/immunology ; COVID-19 Vaccines/immunology ; Humans ; Immunization Programs ; Models, Theoretical ; Pandemics ; Physical Distancing ; Population Control ; Population Dynamics ; SARS-CoV-2/physiology ; United States/epidemiology ; Vaccination
Chemical Substances	COVID-19 Vaccines
Language	English
Publishing date	2021-05-26
Publishing country	England
Document type	Journal Article
ZDB-ID	2615211-3
ISSN	2045-2322 ; 2045-2322
ISSN (online)	2045-2322
ISSN	2045-2322
DOI	10.1038/s41598-021-90539-2
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Article ; Online: Second wave COVID-19 pandemics in Europe

Cacciapaglia, Giacomo / Cot, Corentin / Sannino, Francesco

Scientific Reports

a temporal playbook

2020 Volume 10, Issue 1

Abstract: Abstract A second wave pandemic constitutes an imminent threat to society, with a potentially immense toll in terms of human lives and a devastating economic impact. We employ the epidemic Renormalisation Group (eRG) approach to pandemics, together with ... ...

Abstract	Abstract A second wave pandemic constitutes an imminent threat to society, with a potentially immense toll in terms of human lives and a devastating economic impact. We employ the epidemic Renormalisation Group (eRG) approach to pandemics, together with the first wave data for COVID-19, to efficiently simulate the dynamics of disease transmission and spreading across different European countries. The framework allows us to model, not only inter and extra European border control effects, but also the impact of social distancing for each country. We perform statistical analyses averaging on different level of human interaction across Europe and with the rest of the World. Our results are neatly summarised as an animation reporting the time evolution of the first and second waves of the European COVID-19 pandemic. Our temporal playbook of the second wave pandemic can be used by governments, financial markets, the industries and individual citizens, to efficiently time, prepare and implement local and global measures.
Keywords	Multidisciplinary ; covid19
Language	English
Publisher	Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Publishing country	us
Document type	Article ; Online
ZDB-ID	2615211-3
ISSN	2045-2322
ISSN	2045-2322
DOI	10.1038/s41598-020-72611-5
Database	BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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Article: Mining Google and Apple mobility data: Temporal Anatomy for COVID-19 Social Distancing

Cacciapaglia, Giacomo / Cot, Corentin / Sannino, Francesco

Abstract	We employ the Google and Apple mobility data to identify, quantify and classify different degrees of social distancing and characterise their imprint on the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe and in the United States. We identify the period of enacted social distancing via Google and Apple data, independently from the political decisions. Interestingly we observe a general decrease in the infection rate occurring two to five weeks after the onset of mobility reduction for the European countries and the American states.
Keywords	covid19
Publisher	ArXiv
Document type	Article
Database	COVID19

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Article ; Online: Second wave COVID-19 pandemics in Europe

Cacciapaglia, Giacomo / Cot, Corentin / Sannino, Francesco

Sci.Rep. ; https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-02953157 ; Sci.Rep., 2020, 10 (1), pp.15514. ⟨10.1038/s41598-020-72611-5⟩

a temporal playbook

2020

Abstract: International audience ... A second wave pandemic constitutes an imminent threat to society, with a potentially immense toll in terms of human lives and a devastating economic impact. We employ the epidemic Renormalisation Group (eRG) approach to pandemics, ...

Abstract	International audience A second wave pandemic constitutes an imminent threat to society, with a potentially immense toll in terms of human lives and a devastating economic impact. We employ the epidemic Renormalisation Group (eRG) approach to pandemics, together with the first wave data for COVID-19, to efficiently simulate the dynamics of disease transmission and spreading across different European countries. The framework allows us to model, not only inter and extra European border control effects, but also the impact of social distancing for each country. We perform statistical analyses averaging on different level of human interaction across Europe and with the rest of the World. Our results are neatly summarised as an animation reporting the time evolution of the first and second waves of the European COVID-19 pandemic. Our temporal playbook of the second wave pandemic can be used by governments, financial markets, the industries and individual citizens, to efficiently time, prepare and implement local and global measures.
Keywords	[PHYS]Physics [physics] ; covid19
Language	English
Publisher	HAL CCSD
Publishing country	fr
Document type	Article ; Online
Database	BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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