Article ; Online: Waning of 2-Dose BNT162b2 and mRNA-1273 Vaccine Effectiveness Against Symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 Infection Accounting for Depletion-of-Susceptibles Bias.
American journal of epidemiology
2022 Volume 192, Issue 6, Page(s) 895–907
Abstract: Concerns about the duration of protection conferred by coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccines have arisen in postlicensure evaluations. "Depletion of susceptibles," a bias driven by differential accrual of infection among vaccinated and ... ...
Abstract | Concerns about the duration of protection conferred by coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccines have arisen in postlicensure evaluations. "Depletion of susceptibles," a bias driven by differential accrual of infection among vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals, may obscure vaccine effectiveness (VE) estimates, hindering interpretation. We enrolled California residents who received molecular SARS-CoV-2 tests in a matched, test-negative design, case-control study to estimate VE of mRNA-based COVID-19 vaccines between February 23 and December 5, 2021. We analyzed waning protection following 2 vaccine doses using conditional logistic regression models. Additionally, we used data from a population-based serological study to adjust for "depletion-of-susceptibles" bias and estimated VE for 3 doses, by time since second dose receipt. Pooled VE of BNT162b2 and mRNA-1273 against symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection was 91.3% (95% confidence interval (CI): 83.8, 95.4) at 14 days after second-dose receipt and declined to 50.8% (95% CI: 19.7, 69.8) at 7 months. Adjusting for depletion-of-susceptibles bias, we estimated VE of 53.2% (95% CI: 23.6, 71.2) at 7 months after primary mRNA vaccination series. A booster dose of BN162b2 or mRNA-1273 increased VE to 95.0% (95% CI: 82.8, 98.6). These findings confirm that observed waning of protection is not attributable to epidemiologic bias and support ongoing efforts to administer additional vaccine doses to mitigate burden of COVID-19. |
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MeSH term(s) | Humans ; 2019-nCoV Vaccine mRNA-1273 ; BNT162 Vaccine ; COVID-19/epidemiology ; COVID-19/prevention & control ; COVID-19 Vaccines ; Case-Control Studies ; Vaccine Efficacy ; SARS-CoV-2/genetics ; RNA, Messenger | |||||
Chemical Substances | 2019-nCoV Vaccine mRNA-1273 (EPK39PL4R4) ; BNT162 Vaccine ; COVID-19 Vaccines ; RNA, Messenger | |||||
Language | English | |||||
Publishing date | 2022-04-29 | |||||
Publishing country | United States | |||||
Document type | Journal Article ; Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S. ; Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural ; Research Support, U.S. Gov't, P.H.S. | |||||
ZDB-ID | 2937-3 | |||||
ISSN | 1476-6256 ; 0002-9262 | |||||
ISSN (online) | 1476-6256 | |||||
ISSN | 0002-9262 | |||||
DOI | 10.1093/aje/kwad017 | |||||
Shelf mark |
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Database | MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE |
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