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Article ; Online: The relative contributions of infectious and mitotic spread to HTLV-1 persistence.

Daniel J Laydon / Vikram Sunkara / Lies Boelen / Charles R M Bangham / Becca Asquith

PLoS Computational Biology, Vol 16, Iss 9, p e

2020 Volume 1007470

Abstract: Human T-lymphotropic virus type-1 (HTLV-1) persists within hosts via infectious spread (de novo infection) and mitotic spread (infected cell proliferation), creating a population structure of multiple clones (infected cell populations with identical ... ...

Abstract	Human T-lymphotropic virus type-1 (HTLV-1) persists within hosts via infectious spread (de novo infection) and mitotic spread (infected cell proliferation), creating a population structure of multiple clones (infected cell populations with identical genomic proviral integration sites). The relative contributions of infectious and mitotic spread to HTLV-1 persistence are unknown, and will determine the efficacy of different approaches to treatment. The prevailing view is that infectious spread is negligible in HTLV-1 persistence beyond early infection. However, in light of recent high-throughput data on the abundance of HTLV-1 clones, and recent estimates of HTLV-1 clonal diversity that are substantially higher than previously thought (typically between 104 and 105 HTLV-1+ T cell clones in the body of an asymptomatic carrier or patient with HTLV-1-associated myelopathy/tropical spastic paraparesis), ongoing infectious spread during chronic infection remains possible. We estimate the ratio of infectious to mitotic spread using a hybrid model of deterministic and stochastic processes, fitted to previously published HTLV-1 clonal diversity estimates. We investigate the robustness of our estimates using three alternative estimators. We find that, contrary to previous belief, infectious spread persists during chronic infection, even after HTLV-1 proviral load has reached its set point, and we estimate that between 100 and 200 new HTLV-1 clones are created and killed every day. We find broad agreement between all estimators. The risk of HTLV-1-associated malignancy and inflammatory disease is strongly correlated with proviral load, which in turn is correlated with the number of HTLV-1-infected clones, which are created by de novo infection. Our results therefore imply that suppression of de novo infection may reduce the risk of malignant transformation.
Keywords	Biology (General) ; QH301-705.5
Language	English
Publishing date	2020-09-01T00:00:00Z
Publisher	Public Library of Science (PLoS)
Document type	Article ; Online
Database	BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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Article ; Online: Correction

Pantelis Samartsidis / Seth Flaxman / Samir Bhatt / Daniel J Laydon / Swapnil Mishra / Wes R Hinsley / Axel Gandy / Neil M Ferguson

BMJ Open, Vol 11, Iss

Early life socioeconomic position and mortality from cardiovascular diseases: an application of causal mediation analysis in the Stockholm Public Health Cohort

2021 Volume 4

Keywords	Medicine ; R
Language	English
Publishing date	2021-04-01T00:00:00Z
Publisher	BMJ Publishing Group
Document type	Article ; Online
Database	BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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Article ; Online: Efficacy profile of the CYD-TDV dengue vaccine revealed by Bayesian survival analysis of individual-level phase III data

Daniel J Laydon / Ilaria Dorigatti / Wes R Hinsley / Gemma Nedjati-Gilani / Laurent Coudeville / Neil M Ferguson

eLife, Vol

2021 Volume 10

Abstract: Background: Sanofi-Pasteur’s CYD-TDV is the only licensed dengue vaccine. Two phase three trials showed higher efficacy in seropositive than seronegative recipients. Hospital follow-up revealed increased hospitalisation in 2–5- year-old vaccinees, where ... ...

Abstract	Background: Sanofi-Pasteur’s CYD-TDV is the only licensed dengue vaccine. Two phase three trials showed higher efficacy in seropositive than seronegative recipients. Hospital follow-up revealed increased hospitalisation in 2–5- year-old vaccinees, where serostatus and age effects were unresolved. Methods: We fit a survival model to individual-level data from both trials, including year 1 of hospital follow-up. We determine efficacy by age, serostatus, serotype and severity, and examine efficacy duration and vaccine action mechanism. Results: Our modelling indicates that vaccine-induced immunity is long-lived in seropositive recipients, and therefore that vaccinating seropositives gives higher protection than two natural infections. Long-term increased hospitalisation risk outweighs short-lived immunity in seronegatives. Independently of serostatus, transient immunity increases with age, and is highest against serotype 4. Benefit is higher in seropositives, and risk enhancement is greater in seronegatives, against hospitalised disease than against febrile disease. Conclusions: Our results support vaccinating seropositives only. Rapid diagnostic tests would enable viable ‘screen-then-vaccinate’ programs. Since CYD-TDV acts as a silent infection, long-term safety of other vaccine candidates must be closely monitored. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, National Institute for Health Research, UK Medical Research Council, Wellcome Trust, Royal Society. Clinical trial number: NCT01373281 and NCT01374516.
Keywords	dengue ; vaccine ; mathematical modelling ; bayesian statistics ; survival analysis ; global health ; Medicine ; R ; Science ; Q ; Biology (General) ; QH301-705.5
Language	English
Publishing date	2021-07-01T00:00:00Z
Publisher	eLife Sciences Publications Ltd
Document type	Article ; Online
Database	BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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Article ; Online: Modelling the impact of the tier system on SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the UK between the first and second national lockdowns

Pantelis Samartsidis / Seth Flaxman / Samir Bhatt / Daniel J Laydon / Swapnil Mishra / Wes R Hinsley / Axel Gandy / Neil M Ferguson

BMJ Open, Vol 11, Iss

2021 Volume 4

Abstract: Objective To measure the effects of the tier system on the COVID-19 pandemic in the UK between the first and second national lockdowns, before the emergence of the B.1.1.7 variant of concern.Design This is a modelling study combining estimates of real- ... ...

Abstract	Objective To measure the effects of the tier system on the COVID-19 pandemic in the UK between the first and second national lockdowns, before the emergence of the B.1.1.7 variant of concern.Design This is a modelling study combining estimates of real-time reproduction number Rt (derived from UK case, death and serological survey data) with publicly available data on regional non-pharmaceutical interventions. We fit a Bayesian hierarchical model with latent factors using these quantities to account for broader national trends in addition to subnational effects from tiers.Setting The UK at lower tier local authority (LTLA) level. 310 LTLAs were included in the analysis.Primary and secondary outcome measures Reduction in real-time reproduction number Rt.Results Nationally, transmission increased between July and late September, regional differences notwithstanding. Immediately prior to the introduction of the tier system, Rt averaged 1.3 (0.9–1.6) across LTLAs, but declined to an average of 1.1 (0.86–1.42) 2 weeks later. Decline in transmission was not solely attributable to tiers. Tier 1 had negligible effects. Tiers 2 and 3, respectively, reduced transmission by 6% (5%–7%) and 23% (21%–25%). 288 LTLAs (93%) would have begun to suppress their epidemics if every LTLA had gone into tier 3 by the second national lockdown, whereas only 90 (29%) did so in reality.Conclusions The relatively small effect sizes found in this analysis demonstrate that interventions at least as stringent as tier 3 are required to suppress transmission, especially considering more transmissible variants, at least until effective vaccination is widespread or much greater population immunity has amassed.
Keywords	Medicine ; R
Language	English
Publishing date	2021-04-01T00:00:00Z
Publisher	BMJ Publishing Group
Document type	Article ; Online
Database	BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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Article ; Online: Comparing the responses of the UK, Sweden and Denmark to COVID-19 using counterfactual modelling

Swapnil Mishra / James A. Scott / Daniel J. Laydon / Seth Flaxman / Axel Gandy / Thomas A. Mellan / H. Juliette T. Unwin / Michaela Vollmer / Helen Coupland / Oliver Ratmann / Melodie Monod / Harrison H. Zhu / Anne Cori / Katy A. M. Gaythorpe / Lilith K. Whittles / Charles Whittaker / Christl A. Donnelly / Neil M. Ferguson / Samir Bhatt

Scientific Reports, Vol 11, Iss 1, Pp 1-

2021 Volume 9

Abstract: Abstract The UK and Sweden have among the worst per-capita COVID-19 mortality in Europe. Sweden stands out for its greater reliance on voluntary, rather than mandatory, control measures. We explore how the timing and effectiveness of control measures in ... ...

Abstract	Abstract The UK and Sweden have among the worst per-capita COVID-19 mortality in Europe. Sweden stands out for its greater reliance on voluntary, rather than mandatory, control measures. We explore how the timing and effectiveness of control measures in the UK, Sweden and Denmark shaped COVID-19 mortality in each country, using a counterfactual assessment: what would the impact have been, had each country adopted the others’ policies? Using a Bayesian semi-mechanistic model without prior assumptions on the mechanism or effectiveness of interventions, we estimate the time-varying reproduction number for the UK, Sweden and Denmark from daily mortality data. We use two approaches to evaluate counterfactuals which transpose the transmission profile from one country onto another, in each country’s first wave from 13th March (when stringent interventions began) until 1st July 2020. UK mortality would have approximately doubled had Swedish policy been adopted, while Swedish mortality would have more than halved had Sweden adopted UK or Danish strategies. Danish policies were most effective, although differences between the UK and Denmark were significant for one counterfactual approach only. Our analysis shows that small changes in the timing or effectiveness of interventions have disproportionately large effects on total mortality within a rapidly growing epidemic.
Keywords	Medicine ; R ; Science ; Q
Subject code	310
Language	English
Publishing date	2021-08-01T00:00:00Z
Publisher	Nature Portfolio
Document type	Article ; Online
Database	BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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Article ; Online: Genome-wide determinants of proviral targeting, clonal abundance and expression in natural HTLV-1 infection.

Anat Melamed / Daniel J Laydon / Nicolas A Gillet / Yuetsu Tanaka / Graham P Taylor / Charles R M Bangham

PLoS Pathogens, Vol 9, Iss 3, p e

2013 Volume 1003271

Abstract: The regulation of proviral latency is a central problem in retrovirology. We postulate that the genomic integration site of human T lymphotropic virus type 1 (HTLV-1) determines the pattern of expression of the provirus, which in turn determines the ... ...

Abstract	The regulation of proviral latency is a central problem in retrovirology. We postulate that the genomic integration site of human T lymphotropic virus type 1 (HTLV-1) determines the pattern of expression of the provirus, which in turn determines the abundance and pathogenic potential of infected T cell clones in vivo. We recently developed a high-throughput method for the genome-wide amplification, identification and quantification of proviral integration sites. Here, we used this protocol to test two hypotheses. First, that binding sites for transcription factors and chromatin remodelling factors in the genome flanking the proviral integration site of HTLV-1 are associated with integration targeting, spontaneous proviral expression, and in vivo clonal abundance. Second, that the transcriptional orientation of the HTLV-1 provirus relative to that of the nearest host gene determines spontaneous proviral expression and in vivo clonal abundance. Integration targeting was strongly associated with the presence of a binding site for specific host transcription factors, especially STAT1 and p53. The presence of the chromatin remodelling factors BRG1 and INI1 and certain host transcription factors either upstream or downstream of the provirus was associated respectively with silencing or spontaneous expression of the provirus. Cells expressing HTLV-1 Tax protein were significantly more frequent in clones of low abundance in vivo. We conclude that transcriptional interference and chromatin remodelling are critical determinants of proviral latency in natural HTLV-1 infection.
Keywords	Immunologic diseases. Allergy ; RC581-607 ; Biology (General) ; QH301-705.5
Subject code	570
Language	English
Publishing date	2013-03-01T00:00:00Z
Publisher	Public Library of Science (PLoS)
Document type	Article ; Online
Database	BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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Article ; Online: Quantification of HTLV-1 clonality and TCR diversity.

Daniel J Laydon / Anat Melamed / Aaron Sim / Nicolas A Gillet / Kathleen Sim / Sam Darko / J Simon Kroll / Daniel C Douek / David A Price / Charles R M Bangham / Becca Asquith

PLoS Computational Biology, Vol 10, Iss 6, p e

2014 Volume 1003646

Abstract: Estimation of immunological and microbiological diversity is vital to our understanding of infection and the immune response. For instance, what is the diversity of the T cell repertoire? These questions are partially addressed by high-throughput ... ...

Abstract	Estimation of immunological and microbiological diversity is vital to our understanding of infection and the immune response. For instance, what is the diversity of the T cell repertoire? These questions are partially addressed by high-throughput sequencing techniques that enable identification of immunological and microbiological "species" in a sample. Estimators of the number of unseen species are needed to estimate population diversity from sample diversity. Here we test five widely used non-parametric estimators, and develop and validate a novel method, DivE, to estimate species richness and distribution. We used three independent datasets: (i) viral populations from subjects infected with human T-lymphotropic virus type 1; (ii) T cell antigen receptor clonotype repertoires; and (iii) microbial data from infant faecal samples. When applied to datasets with rarefaction curves that did not plateau, existing estimators systematically increased with sample size. In contrast, DivE consistently and accurately estimated diversity for all datasets. We identify conditions that limit the application of DivE. We also show that DivE can be used to accurately estimate the underlying population frequency distribution. We have developed a novel method that is significantly more accurate than commonly used biodiversity estimators in microbiological and immunological populations.
Keywords	Biology (General) ; QH301-705.5
Subject code	310
Language	English
Publishing date	2014-06-01T00:00:00Z
Publisher	Public Library of Science (PLoS)
Document type	Article ; Online
Database	BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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Article ; Online: Clonality of HTLV-2 in natural infection.

Anat Melamed / Aviva D Witkover / Daniel J Laydon / Rachael Brown / Kristin Ladell / Kelly Miners / Aileen G Rowan / Niall Gormley / David A Price / Graham P Taylor / Edward L Murphy / Charles R M Bangham

PLoS Pathogens, Vol 10, Iss 3, p e

2014 Volume 1004006

Abstract: Human T-lymphotropic virus type 1 (HTLV-1) and type 2 (HTLV-2) both cause lifelong persistent infections, but differ in their clinical outcomes. HTLV-1 infection causes a chronic or acute T-lymphocytic malignancy in up to 5% of infected individuals ... ...

Abstract	Human T-lymphotropic virus type 1 (HTLV-1) and type 2 (HTLV-2) both cause lifelong persistent infections, but differ in their clinical outcomes. HTLV-1 infection causes a chronic or acute T-lymphocytic malignancy in up to 5% of infected individuals whereas HTLV-2 has not been unequivocally linked to a T-cell malignancy. Virus-driven clonal proliferation of infected cells both in vitro and in vivo has been demonstrated in HTLV-1 infection. However, T-cell clonality in HTLV-2 infection has not been rigorously characterized. In this study we used a high-throughput approach in conjunction with flow cytometric sorting to identify and quantify HTLV-2-infected T-cell clones in 28 individuals with natural infection. We show that while genome-wide integration site preferences in vivo were similar to those found in HTLV-1 infection, expansion of HTLV-2-infected clones did not demonstrate the same significant association with the genomic environment of the integrated provirus. The proviral load in HTLV-2 is almost confined to CD8+ T-cells and is composed of a small number of often highly expanded clones. The HTLV-2 load correlated significantly with the degree of dispersion of the clone frequency distribution, which was highly stable over ∼8 years. These results suggest that there are significant differences in the selection forces that control the clonal expansion of virus-infected cells in HTLV-1 and HTLV-2 infection. In addition, our data demonstrate that strong virus-driven proliferation per se does not predispose to malignant transformation in oncoretroviral infections.
Keywords	Immunologic diseases. Allergy ; RC581-607 ; Biology (General) ; QH301-705.5
Subject code	570
Language	English
Publishing date	2014-03-01T00:00:00Z
Publisher	Public Library of Science (PLoS)
Document type	Article ; Online
Database	BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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Article ; Online: Strongyloidiasis and infective dermatitis alter human T lymphotropic virus-1 clonality in vivo.

Nicolas A Gillet / Lucy Cook / Daniel J Laydon / Carol Hlela / Kristien Verdonck / Carolina Alvarez / Eduardo Gotuzzo / Daniel Clark / Lourdes Farré / Achiléa Bittencourt / Becca Asquith / Graham P Taylor / Charles R M Bangham

PLoS Pathogens, Vol 9, Iss 4, p e

2013 Volume 1003263

Abstract: Human T-lymphotropic Virus-1 (HTLV-1) is a retrovirus that persists lifelong by driving clonal proliferation of infected T-cells. HTLV-1 causes a neuroinflammatory disease and adult T-cell leukemia/lymphoma. Strongyloidiasis, a gastrointestinal infection ...

Abstract	Human T-lymphotropic Virus-1 (HTLV-1) is a retrovirus that persists lifelong by driving clonal proliferation of infected T-cells. HTLV-1 causes a neuroinflammatory disease and adult T-cell leukemia/lymphoma. Strongyloidiasis, a gastrointestinal infection by the helminth Strongyloides stercoralis, and Infective Dermatitis associated with HTLV-1 (IDH), appear to be risk factors for the development of HTLV-1 related diseases. We used high-throughput sequencing to map and quantify the insertion sites of the provirus in order to monitor the clonality of the HTLV-1-infected T-cell population (i.e. the number of distinct clones and abundance of each clone). A newly developed biodiversity estimator called "DivE" was used to estimate the total number of clones in the blood. We found that the major determinant of proviral load in all subjects without leukemia/lymphoma was the total number of HTLV-1-infected clones. Nevertheless, the significantly higher proviral load in patients with strongyloidiasis or IDH was due to an increase in the mean clone abundance, not to an increase in the number of infected clones. These patients appear to be less capable of restricting clone abundance than those with HTLV-1 alone. In patients co-infected with Strongyloides there was an increased degree of oligoclonal expansion and a higher rate of turnover (i.e. appearance and disappearance) of HTLV-1-infected clones. In Strongyloides co-infected patients and those with IDH, proliferation of the most abundant HTLV-1⁺ T-cell clones is independent of the genomic environment of the provirus, in sharp contrast to patients with HTLV-1 infection alone. This implies that new selection forces are driving oligoclonal proliferation in Strongyloides co-infection and IDH. We conclude that strongyloidiasis and IDH increase the risk of development of HTLV-1-associated diseases by increasing the rate of infection of new clones and the abundance of existing HTLV-1⁺ clones.
Keywords	Immunologic diseases. Allergy ; RC581-607 ; Biology (General) ; QH301-705.5
Subject code	610
Language	English
Publishing date	2013-01-01T00:00:00Z
Publisher	Public Library of Science (PLoS)
Document type	Article ; Online
Database	BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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Article ; Online: The Long-Term Safety, Public Health Impact, and Cost-Effectiveness of Routine Vaccination with a Recombinant, Live-Attenuated Dengue Vaccine (Dengvaxia)

PLoS Medicine, Vol 13, Iss 11, p e

A Model Comparison Study.

2016 Volume 1002181

Abstract: Background Large Phase III trials across Asia and Latin America have recently demonstrated the efficacy of a recombinant, live-attenuated dengue vaccine (Dengvaxia) over the first 25 mo following vaccination. Subsequent data collected in the longer-term ... ...

Abstract	Background Large Phase III trials across Asia and Latin America have recently demonstrated the efficacy of a recombinant, live-attenuated dengue vaccine (Dengvaxia) over the first 25 mo following vaccination. Subsequent data collected in the longer-term follow-up phase, however, have raised concerns about a potential increase in hospitalization risk of subsequent dengue infections, in particular among young, dengue-naïve vaccinees. We here report predictions from eight independent modelling groups on the long-term safety, public health impact, and cost-effectiveness of routine vaccination with Dengvaxia in a range of transmission settings, as characterised by seroprevalence levels among 9-y-olds (SP9). These predictions were conducted for the World Health Organization to inform their recommendations on optimal use of this vaccine. Methods and findings The models adopted, with small variations, a parsimonious vaccine mode of action that was able to reproduce quantitative features of the observed trial data. The adopted mode of action assumed that vaccination, similarly to natural infection, induces transient, heterologous protection and, further, establishes a long-lasting immunogenic memory, which determines disease severity of subsequent infections. The default vaccination policy considered was routine vaccination of 9-y-old children in a three-dose schedule at 80% coverage. The outcomes examined were the impact of vaccination on infections, symptomatic dengue, hospitalised dengue, deaths, and cost-effectiveness over a 30-y postvaccination period. Case definitions were chosen in accordance with the Phase III trials. All models predicted that in settings with moderate to high dengue endemicity (SP9 ≥ 50%), the default vaccination policy would reduce the burden of dengue disease for the population by 6%-25% (all simulations: -3%-34%) and in high-transmission settings (SP9 ≥ 70%) by 13%-25% (all simulations: 10%- 34%). These endemicity levels are representative of the participating sites in both Phase III trials. ...
Keywords	Medicine ; R
Subject code	333
Language	English
Publishing date	2016-11-01T00:00:00Z
Publisher	Public Library of Science (PLoS)
Document type	Article ; Online
Database	BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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