Article ; Online: Use case for predictive physiological models
International Journal of Circumpolar Health, Vol 82, Iss
tactical insights about frozen Russian soldiers in Ukraine
2023 Volume 1
Abstract: ABSTRACTBiomathematical models quantitatively describe human physiological responses to environmental and operational stressors and have been used for planning and real-time prevention of cold injury. These same models can be applied from a military ... ...
Abstract | ABSTRACTBiomathematical models quantitatively describe human physiological responses to environmental and operational stressors and have been used for planning and real-time prevention of cold injury. These same models can be applied from a military tactical perspective to gain valuable insights into the health status of opponent soldiers. This paper describes a use case for predicting physiological status of Russian soldiers invading Ukraine using open-source information. In March 2022, media outlets reported Russian soldiers in a stalled convoy invading Ukraine were at serious risk of hypothermia and predicted these soldiers would be “freezing to death” within days because of declining temperatures (down to −20°C). Using existing Army models, clothing data and open-source intelligence, modelling and analyses were conducted within hours to quantitatively assess the conditions and provide science-based predictions. These predictions projected a significant increase in risks of frostbite for exposed skin and toes and feet, with a very low (negligible) risk of hypothermia. Several days later, media outlets confirmed these predictions, reporting a steep rise in evacuations for foot frostbite injuries in these Russian forces. This demonstrated what can be done today with the existing mathematical physiology and how models traditionally focused on health risk can be used for tactical intelligence. |
---|---|
Keywords | biophysics ; modelling ; thermophysiology ; hypothermia ; frostbite ; military operations ; Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine ; RC955-962 |
Subject code | 006 |
Language | English |
Publishing date | 2023-12-01T00:00:00Z |
Publisher | Taylor & Francis Group |
Document type | Article ; Online |
Database | BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection) |
Full text online
More links
Kategorien
Inter-library loan at ZB MED
Your chosen title can be delivered directly to ZB MED Cologne location if you are registered as a user at ZB MED Cologne.