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  1. Article: Dynamic modeling of global fossil fuel infrastructure and materials needs: Overcoming a lack of available data

    Le Boulzec, Hugo / Delannoy, Louis / Andrieu, Baptiste / Verzier, François / Vidal, Olivier / Mathy, Sandrine

    Applied energy. 2022 Aug. 16,

    2022  

    Abstract: The low-carbon energy transition requires a widespread change in global energy infrastructures which in turn calls for important inputs of energy and materials. While the transport and electricity sectors have been thoroughly analyzed in this regard, ... ...

    Abstract The low-carbon energy transition requires a widespread change in global energy infrastructures which in turn calls for important inputs of energy and materials. While the transport and electricity sectors have been thoroughly analyzed in this regard, that of the hydrocarbon industry has not received the same attention, maybe in part due to the difficulty of access to the necessary data. To fill this gap, we assemble public-domain data from a wide variety of sources to present a stock-flow dynamic model of the fossil fuels supply chain. It is conducted from 1950 to 2050 and along scenarios from the International Energy Agency. We estimate the concrete, steel, aluminum and copper requirements for each segment, as well as the embedded energy and CO₂ emissions through a dynamic material flow analysis (MFA) model. We find that (i) the material intensities of oil, gas and coal supply chains have stagnated for more than 30 years; (ii) gas is the main driver of current and future material consumption; and (iii) recycled steel from decommissioned fossil fuels infrastructures could meet the cumulative need of future low-carbon technologies and reduce its energy and environmental toll. Furthermore, we highlight that regional decommissioning strategies significantly affect the potential of material recycling and reuse. In this context, ambitious decommissioning strategies could drive a symbolic move to build future renewable technologies from past fossil fuel structures.
    Keywords aluminum ; carbon dioxide ; coal ; concrete ; dynamic models ; electricity ; embodied energy ; industry ; infrastructure ; material flow analysis ; oils ; steel ; supply chain
    Language English
    Dates of publication 2022-0816
    Publishing place Elsevier Ltd
    Document type Article
    Note Pre-press version
    ZDB-ID 2000772-3
    ISSN 0306-2619
    ISSN 0306-2619
    DOI 10.1016/j.apenergy.2022.119871
    Database NAL-Catalogue (AGRICOLA)

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  2. Article ; Online: Energy Intensity of Final Consumption: the Richer, the Poorer the Efficiency.

    Andrieu, Baptiste / Vidal, Olivier / Le Boulzec, Hugo / Delannoy, Louis / Verzier, François

    Environmental science & technology

    2022  Volume 56, Issue 19, Page(s) 13909–13919

    Abstract: To maintain perpetual economic growth, most energy transition scenarios bet on a break in the historical relationship between energy use and gross domestic product (GDP). Practical limits to energy efficiency are overlooked by such scenarios, in ... ...

    Abstract To maintain perpetual economic growth, most energy transition scenarios bet on a break in the historical relationship between energy use and gross domestic product (GDP). Practical limits to energy efficiency are overlooked by such scenarios, in particular the fact that high-income individuals tend to buy goods and services that are more energy intensive. Detailed assessments of the energy embodied in regional final consumption are needed to better understand the relationship between energy and GDP. Here, we calculate the energy necessary to produce households and governments' final consumption in 49 world regions in 2017. We correct prices at the sector level and account for the energy embodied in the whole value chain, including capital goods. We find that high-income regions use more energy per unit of final consumption than low-income ones. This result contradicts the common belief that a higher GDP is correlated with a better efficiency and questions the feasibility of mainstream energy transition scenarios based on universal GDP growth.
    MeSH term(s) Economic Development ; Gross Domestic Product ; Humans ; Income ; Poverty
    Language English
    Publishing date 2022-09-20
    Publishing country United States
    Document type Journal Article ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
    ISSN 1520-5851
    ISSN (online) 1520-5851
    DOI 10.1021/acs.est.2c03462
    Database MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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  3. Article: Peak oil and the low-carbon energy transition: A net-energy perspective

    Delannoy, Louis / Longaretti, Pierre-Yves / Murphy, David J. / Prados, Emmanuel

    Applied energy. 2021 Dec. 15, v. 304

    2021  

    Abstract: Since the Pennsylvania oil rush of 1859, petroleum has quickly become the dominant fuel of industrial society. The “Peak Oil” debate focused on whether or not there was an impending production crunch of cheap oil, and whilst there have been no shortages ... ...

    Abstract Since the Pennsylvania oil rush of 1859, petroleum has quickly become the dominant fuel of industrial society. The “Peak Oil” debate focused on whether or not there was an impending production crunch of cheap oil, and whilst there have been no shortages across the globe, a shift from conventional to unconventional oil liquids has occurred. One aspect of this shift was not fully explored in previous discussions–although of some importance in a low-carbon energy transition context: the extent to which the net-energy supply of oil products is affected by the use of lower quality energy sources. To fill this gap, this paper incorporates standard EROI (energy-return-on-investment) estimates and dynamic decline functions in the GlobalShift all-liquids bottom-up model on a global scale. We determine the energy necessary for the production of oil liquids (including direct and indirect energy costs) to represent today 15.5% of the energy production of oil liquids, and growing at an exponential rate: by 2050, a proportion equivalent to half of the gross energy output will be engulfed in its own production. Our findings thus question the feasibility of a global and fast low-carbon energy transition. We therefore suggest an urgent return of the peak oil debate, but including net-energy issues and avoiding a narrow focus on ‘peak supply’ vs ‘peak demand’.
    Keywords decline ; energy ; industrial society ; models ; oils ; petroleum ; Pennsylvania
    Language English
    Dates of publication 2021-1215
    Publishing place Elsevier Ltd
    Document type Article
    ZDB-ID 2000772-3
    ISSN 0306-2619
    ISSN 0306-2619
    DOI 10.1016/j.apenergy.2021.117843
    Database NAL-Catalogue (AGRICOLA)

    Full text online

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