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Book ; Online: Limited data on infectious disease distribution exposes ambiguity in epidemic modeling choices

Di Domenico, Laura / Valdano, Eugenio / Colizza, Vittoria

2024

Abstract: Traditional disease transmission models assume that the infectious period is exponentially distributed with a recovery rate fixed in time and across individuals. This assumption provides analytical and computational advantages, however it is often ... ...

Abstract	Traditional disease transmission models assume that the infectious period is exponentially distributed with a recovery rate fixed in time and across individuals. This assumption provides analytical and computational advantages, however it is often unrealistic. Efforts in modeling non-exponentially distributed infectious periods are either limited to special cases or lead to unsolvable models. Also, the link between empirical data (infectious period distribution) and the modeling needs (corresponding recovery rates) lacks a clear understanding. Here we introduce a mapping of an arbitrary distribution of infectious periods into a distribution of recovery rates. We show that the same infectious period distribution at the population level can be reproduced by two modeling schemes -- host-based and population-based -- depending on the individual response to the infection, and aggregated empirical data cannot easily discriminate the correct scheme. Besides being conceptually different, the two schemes also lead to different epidemic trajectories. Although sharing the same behavior close to the disease-free equilibrium, the host-based scheme deviates from the expected epidemic when reaching the endemic equilibrium of an SIS transmission model, while the population-based scheme turns out to be equivalent to assuming a homogeneous recovery rate. We show this through analytical computations and stochastic epidemic simulations on a contact network, using both generative network models and empirical contact data. It is therefore possible to reproduce heterogeneous infectious periods in network-based transmission models, however the resulting prevalence is sensitive to the modeling choice for the interpretation of the empirically collected data on infection duration. In absence of higher resolution data, studies should acknowledge such deviations in the epidemic predictions.
Keywords	Quantitative Biology - Populations and Evolution ; Physics - Physics and Society
Subject code	612
Publishing date	2024-01-26
Publishing country	us
Document type	Book ; Online
Database	BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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Article ; Online: The impact of spatial connectivity on NPIs effectiveness.

Sabbatini, Chiara E / Pullano, Giulia / Di Domenico, Laura / Rubrichi, Stefania / Bansal, Shweta / Colizza, Vittoria

BMC infectious diseases

2024 Volume 24, Issue 1, Page(s) 21

Abstract: Background: France implemented a combination of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to manage the COVID-19 pandemic between September 2020 and June 2021. These included a lockdown in the fall 2020 - the second since the start of the pandemic - to ... ...

Abstract	Background: France implemented a combination of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to manage the COVID-19 pandemic between September 2020 and June 2021. These included a lockdown in the fall 2020 - the second since the start of the pandemic - to counteract the second wave, followed by a long period of nighttime curfew, and by a third lockdown in the spring 2021 against the Alpha wave. Interventions have so far been evaluated in isolation, neglecting the spatial connectivity between regions through mobility that may impact NPI effectiveness. Methods: Focusing on September 2020-June 2021, we developed a regionally-based epidemic metapopulation model informed by observed mobility fluxes from daily mobile phone data and fitted the model to regional hospital admissions. The model integrated data on vaccination and variants spread. Scenarios were designed to assess the impact of the Alpha variant, characterized by increased transmissibility and risk of hospitalization, of the vaccination campaign and alternative policy decisions. Results: The spatial model better captured the heterogeneity observed in the regional dynamics, compared to models neglecting inter-regional mobility. The third lockdown was similarly effective to the second lockdown after discounting for immunity, Alpha, and seasonality (51% vs 52% median regional reduction in the reproductive number R Conclusions: Spatial connectivity induced by mobility impacted the effectiveness of interventions especially in regions with higher mobility rates. Early evening curfew with gastronomy sector closed allowed authorities to delay the third wave. Stop-and-go lockdowns could have substantially lowered both healthcare and societal burdens if implemented early enough, compared to the observed application of lockdown-curfew-lockdown, but likely at the expense of several labor sectors. These findings contribute to characterize the effectiveness of implemented strategies and improve pandemic preparedness.
MeSH term(s)	Humans ; Pandemics/prevention & control ; COVID-19/epidemiology ; COVID-19/prevention & control ; Cell Phone ; France/epidemiology ; Health Facilities
Language	English
Publishing date	2024-01-02
Publishing country	England
Document type	Journal Article
ZDB-ID	2041550-3
ISSN	1471-2334 ; 1471-2334
ISSN (online)	1471-2334
ISSN	1471-2334
DOI	10.1186/s12879-023-08900-x
Database	MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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Article: Teachers' Emotional Intelligence, Burnout, Work Engagement, and Self-Efficacy during COVID-19 Lockdown.

Geraci, Alessandro / Di Domenico, Laura / Inguglia, Cristiano / D'Amico, Antonella

Behavioral sciences (Basel, Switzerland)

2023 Volume 13, Issue 4

Abstract: Teachers' psychological well-being is a crucial aspect that influences learning in a classroom climate. The aim of the study was to investigate teachers' emotional intelligence, burnout, work engagement, and self-efficacy in times of remote teaching ... ...

Abstract	Teachers' psychological well-being is a crucial aspect that influences learning in a classroom climate. The aim of the study was to investigate teachers' emotional intelligence, burnout, work engagement, and self-efficacy in times of remote teaching during COVID-19 lockdown. A sample of 65 teachers (M
Language	English
Publishing date	2023-03-30
Publishing country	Switzerland
Document type	Journal Article
ZDB-ID	2651997-5
ISSN	2076-328X
ISSN	2076-328X
DOI	10.3390/bs13040296
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Article ; Online: Impact of January 2021 curfew measures on SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.7 circulation in France.

Di Domenico, Laura / Sabbatini, Chiara E / Pullano, Giulia / Lévy-Bruhl, Daniel / Colizza, Vittoria

Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin

2021 Volume 26, Issue 15

Abstract: Following the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.7 variant, social distancing was strengthened in France in January 2021. Using a two-strain mathematical model calibrated on genomic surveillance, we estimated that curfew measures allowed hospitalisations to ... ...

Abstract	Following the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.7 variant, social distancing was strengthened in France in January 2021. Using a two-strain mathematical model calibrated on genomic surveillance, we estimated that curfew measures allowed hospitalisations to plateau by decreasing transmission of the historical strains while B.1.1.7 continued to grow. School holidays appear to have further slowed down progression in February. Without progressively strengthened social distancing, a rapid surge of hospitalisations is expected, despite the foreseen increase in vaccination rhythm.
MeSH term(s)	COVID-19 ; France/epidemiology ; Humans ; SARS-CoV-2 ; Schools
Language	English
Publishing date	2021-02-15
Publishing country	Sweden
Document type	Journal Article
ZDB-ID	1338803-4
ISSN	1560-7917 ; 1025-496X
ISSN (online)	1560-7917
ISSN	1025-496X
DOI	10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2021.26.15.2100272
Database	MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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Article ; Online: Modelling safe protocols for reopening schools during the COVID-19 pandemic in France.

Di Domenico, Laura / Pullano, Giulia / Sabbatini, Chiara E / Boëlle, Pierre-Yves / Colizza, Vittoria

Nature communications

2021 Volume 12, Issue 1, Page(s) 1073

Abstract: As countries in Europe implement strategies to control the COVID-19 pandemic, different options are chosen regarding schools. Through a stochastic age-structured transmission model calibrated to the observed epidemic in Île-de-France in the first wave, ... ...

Abstract	As countries in Europe implement strategies to control the COVID-19 pandemic, different options are chosen regarding schools. Through a stochastic age-structured transmission model calibrated to the observed epidemic in Île-de-France in the first wave, we explored scenarios of partial, progressive, or full school reopening. Given the uncertainty on children's role, we found that reopening schools after lockdown may increase COVID-19 cases, yet protocols exist to keep the epidemic controlled. Under a scenario with stable epidemic activity if schools were closed, reopening pre-schools and primary schools would lead to up to 76% [67, 84]% occupation of ICU beds if no other school level reopened, or if middle and high schools reopened later. Immediately reopening all school levels may overwhelm the ICU system. Priority should be given to pre- and primary schools allowing younger children to resume learning and development, whereas full attendance in middle and high schools is not recommended for stable or increasing epidemic activity. Large-scale test and trace is required to keep the epidemic under control. Ex-post assessment shows that progressive reopening of schools, limited attendance, and strong adoption of preventive measures contributed to a decreasing epidemic after lifting the first lockdown.
MeSH term(s)	COVID-19/epidemiology ; COVID-19/transmission ; Child ; Computer Simulation ; France/epidemiology ; Humans ; Intensive Care Units ; Models, Biological ; Pandemics ; Patient Admission ; Retrospective Studies ; SARS-CoV-2/physiology ; Schools
Language	English
Publishing date	2021-02-16
Publishing country	England
Document type	Journal Article ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
ZDB-ID	2553671-0
ISSN	2041-1723 ; 2041-1723
ISSN (online)	2041-1723
ISSN	2041-1723
DOI	10.1038/s41467-021-21249-6
Database	MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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Article ; Online: Impact of lockdown on COVID-19 epidemic in Île-de-France and possible exit strategies.

Di Domenico, Laura / Pullano, Giulia / Sabbatini, Chiara E / Boëlle, Pierre-Yves / Colizza, Vittoria

BMC medicine

2020 Volume 18, Issue 1, Page(s) 240

Abstract: Background: More than half of the global population is under strict forms of social distancing. Estimating the expected impact of lockdown and exit strategies is critical to inform decision makers on the management of the COVID-19 health crisis.: ... ...

Abstract	Background: More than half of the global population is under strict forms of social distancing. Estimating the expected impact of lockdown and exit strategies is critical to inform decision makers on the management of the COVID-19 health crisis. Methods: We use a stochastic age-structured transmission model integrating data on age profile and social contacts in Île-de-France to (i) assess the epidemic in the region, (ii) evaluate the impact of lockdown, and (iii) propose possible exit strategies and estimate their effectiveness. The model is calibrated to hospital admission data before lockdown. Interventions are modeled by reconstructing the associated changes in the contact matrices and informed by mobility reductions during lockdown evaluated from mobile phone data. Different types and durations of social distancing are simulated, including progressive and targeted strategies, with large-scale testing. Results: We estimate the reproductive number at 3.18 [3.09, 3.24] (95% confidence interval) prior to lockdown and at 0.68 [0.66, 0.69] during lockdown, thanks to an 81% reduction of the average number of contacts. Model predictions capture the disease dynamics during lockdown, showing the epidemic curve reaching ICU system capacity, largely strengthened during the emergency, and slowly decreasing. Results suggest that physical contacts outside households were largely avoided during lockdown. Lifting the lockdown with no exit strategy would lead to a second wave overwhelming the healthcare system, if conditions return to normal. Extensive case finding and isolation are required for social distancing strategies to gradually relax lockdown constraints. Conclusions: As France experiences the first wave of COVID-19 pandemic in lockdown, intensive forms of social distancing are required in the upcoming months due to the currently low population immunity. Extensive case finding and isolation would allow the partial release of the socio-economic pressure caused by extreme measures, while avoiding healthcare demand exceeding capacity. Response planning needs to urgently prioritize the logistics and capacity for these interventions.
MeSH term(s)	Betacoronavirus ; COVID-19 ; Communicable Disease Control/methods ; Coronavirus Infections/epidemiology ; Coronavirus Infections/prevention & control ; France ; Hospitalization/statistics & numerical data ; Humans ; Pandemics/prevention & control ; Pneumonia, Viral/epidemiology ; Pneumonia, Viral/prevention & control ; SARS-CoV-2 ; Social Isolation
Keywords	covid19
Language	English
Publishing date	2020-07-30
Publishing country	England
Document type	Journal Article ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
ZDB-ID	2131669-7
ISSN	1741-7015 ; 1741-7015
ISSN (online)	1741-7015
ISSN	1741-7015
DOI	10.1186/s12916-020-01698-4
Database	MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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Article ; Online: Tracing and analysis of 288 early SARS-CoV-2 infections outside China: A modeling study.

Pinotti, Francesco / Di Domenico, Laura / Ortega, Ernesto / Mancastroppa, Marco / Pullano, Giulia / Valdano, Eugenio / Boëlle, Pierre-Yves / Poletto, Chiara / Colizza, Vittoria

PLoS medicine

2020 Volume 17, Issue 7, Page(s) e1003193

Abstract: Background: In the early months of 2020, a novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) spread rapidly from China across multiple countries worldwide. As of March 17, 2020, COVID-19 was officially declared a pandemic by the World Health Organization. We ... ...

Abstract	Background: In the early months of 2020, a novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) spread rapidly from China across multiple countries worldwide. As of March 17, 2020, COVID-19 was officially declared a pandemic by the World Health Organization. We collected data on COVID-19 cases outside China during the early phase of the pandemic and used them to predict trends in importations and quantify the proportion of undetected imported cases. Methods and findings: Two hundred and eighty-eight cases have been confirmed out of China from January 3 to February 13, 2020. We collected and synthesized all available information on these cases from official sources and media. We analyzed importations that were successfully isolated and those leading to onward transmission. We modeled their number over time, in relation to the origin of travel (Hubei province, other Chinese provinces, other countries) and interventions. We characterized the importation timeline to assess the rapidity of isolation and epidemiologically linked clusters to estimate the rate of detection. We found a rapid exponential growth of importations from Hubei, corresponding to a doubling time of 2.8 days, combined with a slower growth from the other areas. We predicted a rebound of importations from South East Asia in the successive weeks. Time from travel to detection has considerably decreased since first importation, from 14.5 ± 5.5 days on January 5, 2020, to 6 ± 3.5 days on February 1, 2020. However, we estimated 36% of detection of imported cases. This study is restricted to the early phase of the pandemic, when China was the only large epicenter and foreign countries had not discovered extensive local transmission yet. Missing information in case history was accounted for through modeling and imputation. Conclusions: Our findings indicate that travel bans and containment strategies adopted in China were effective in reducing the exportation growth rate. However, the risk of importation was estimated to increase again from other sources in South East Asia. Surveillance and management of traveling cases represented a priority in the early phase of the epidemic. With the majority of imported cases going undetected (6 out of 10), countries experienced several undetected clusters of chains of local transmissions, fueling silent epidemics in the community. These findings become again critical to prevent second waves, now that countries have reduced their epidemic activity and progressively phase out lockdown.
MeSH term(s)	Betacoronavirus ; COVID-19 ; China/epidemiology ; Communicable Disease Control/methods ; Coronavirus Infections/epidemiology ; Coronavirus Infections/transmission ; Humans ; Models, Theoretical ; Pandemics ; Pneumonia, Viral/epidemiology ; Pneumonia, Viral/transmission ; SARS-CoV-2 ; Travel
Keywords	covid19
Language	English
Publishing date	2020-07-17
Publishing country	United States
Document type	Journal Article ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
ZDB-ID	2185925-5
ISSN	1549-1676 ; 1549-1277
ISSN (online)	1549-1676
ISSN	1549-1277
DOI	10.1371/journal.pmed.1003193
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Article ; Online: Impact of lockdown on COVID-19 epidemic in Île-de-France and possible exit strategies

Di Domenico, Laura / Pullano, Giulia / Sabbatini, Chiara E. / Boëlle, Pierre-Yves / Colizza, Vittoria

BMC Medicine

2020 Volume 18, Issue 1

Keywords	General Medicine ; covid19
Language	English
Publisher	Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Publishing country	us
Document type	Article ; Online
ISSN	1741-7015
DOI	10.1186/s12916-020-01698-4
Database	BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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Article: Impact of lockdown on COVID-19 epidemic in Île-de-France and possible exit strategies

Di Domenico, Laura / Pullano, Giulia / Sabbatini, Chiara E / Boëlle, Pierre-Yves / Colizza, Vittoria

BMC Med

Abstract: BACKGROUND: More than half of the global population is under strict forms of social distancing. Estimating the expected impact of lockdown and exit strategies is critical to inform decision makers on the management of the COVID-19 health crisis. METHODS: ...

Abstract	BACKGROUND: More than half of the global population is under strict forms of social distancing. Estimating the expected impact of lockdown and exit strategies is critical to inform decision makers on the management of the COVID-19 health crisis. METHODS: We use a stochastic age-structured transmission model integrating data on age profile and social contacts in Île-de-France to (i) assess the epidemic in the region, (ii) evaluate the impact of lockdown, and (iii) propose possible exit strategies and estimate their effectiveness. The model is calibrated to hospital admission data before lockdown. Interventions are modeled by reconstructing the associated changes in the contact matrices and informed by mobility reductions during lockdown evaluated from mobile phone data. Different types and durations of social distancing are simulated, including progressive and targeted strategies, with large-scale testing. RESULTS: We estimate the reproductive number at 3.18 [3.09, 3.24] (95% confidence interval) prior to lockdown and at 0.68 [0.66, 0.69] during lockdown, thanks to an 81% reduction of the average number of contacts. Model predictions capture the disease dynamics during lockdown, showing the epidemic curve reaching ICU system capacity, largely strengthened during the emergency, and slowly decreasing. Results suggest that physical contacts outside households were largely avoided during lockdown. Lifting the lockdown with no exit strategy would lead to a second wave overwhelming the healthcare system, if conditions return to normal. Extensive case finding and isolation are required for social distancing strategies to gradually relax lockdown constraints. CONCLUSIONS: As France experiences the first wave of COVID-19 pandemic in lockdown, intensive forms of social distancing are required in the upcoming months due to the currently low population immunity. Extensive case finding and isolation would allow the partial release of the socio-economic pressure caused by extreme measures, while avoiding healthcare demand exceeding capacity. Response planning needs to urgently prioritize the logistics and capacity for these interventions.
Keywords	covid19
Publisher	WHO
Document type	Article
Note	WHO #Covidence: #688797
Database	COVID19

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Article ; Online: Expected impact of lockdown in Île-de-France and possible exit strategies

Di Domenico, Laura / Pullano, Giulia / Sabbatini, Chiara E. / Boëlle, Pierre-Yves / Colizza, Vittoria

Abstract: More than half of the global population is currently under strict forms of social distancing, with more than 90 countries in lockdown, including France. Estimating the expected impact of the lockdown, and the potential effectiveness of different exit ... ...

Abstract	More than half of the global population is currently under strict forms of social distancing, with more than 90 countries in lockdown, including France. Estimating the expected impact of the lockdown, and the potential effectiveness of different exit strategies is critical to inform decision makers on the management of the COVID-19 health crisis. We use a stochastic age-structured transmission model integrating data on age profile and social contacts in the Île-de-France region to (i) assess the current epidemic situation, (ii) evaluate the expected impact of the lockdown implemented in France on March 17, 2020, and (iii) estimate the effectiveness of possible exit strategies. The model is calibrated on hospital admission data of the region before lockdown and validated on syndromic and virological surveillance data. Different types and durations of social distancing interventions are simulated, including a progressive lifting of the lockdown targeted on specific classes of individuals (e.g. allowing a larger proportion of the population to go to work, while protecting the elderly), and large-scale testing. We estimate the basic reproductive number at 3.0 [2.8, 3.2] (95% confidence interval) prior to lockdown and the population infected by COVID-19 as of April 5 to be in the range 1% to 6%. The average number of contacts is predicted to be reduced by 80% during lockdown, leading to a substantial reduction of the reproductive number (RLD = 0.68 [0.62-0.73]). Under these conditions, the epidemic curve reaches ICU system capacity and slowly decreases during lockdown. Lifting the lockdown with no exit strategy would lead to a second wave largely overwhelming the healthcare system. Extensive case-finding, testing and isolation are required to envision social distancing strategies that gradually relax current constraints (larger fraction of individuals going back to work, progressive reopening of activities), while keeping schools closed and seniors isolated. As France faces the first wave of COVID-19 pandemic in lockdown, intensive forms of social distancing are required in the upcoming months due to the currently low population immunity. Extensive case-finding and isolation would allow the partial release of the socio-economic pressure caused by extreme measures, while avoiding healthcare demand exceeding capacity. Response planning needs to urgently prioritize the logistics and capacity for these interventions.
Keywords	covid19
Publisher	MedRxiv; WHO
Document type	Article ; Online
DOI	10.1101/2020.04.13.20063933
Database	COVID19

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