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  1. Book ; Online: How well do Earth system models reproduce the observed aerosol response to rapid emission reductions? A COVID-19 case study

    Digby, Ruth A. R. / Gillett, Nathan P. / Monahan, Adam H. / Salzen, Knut / Gkikas, Antonis / Song, Qianqian / Zhang, Zhibo

    eISSN: 1680-7324

    2024  

    Abstract: The spring 2020 COVID-19 lockdowns led to a rapid reduction in aerosol and aerosol precursor emissions. These emission reductions provide a unique opportunity for model evaluation and to assess the potential efficacy of future emission control measures. ... ...

    Abstract The spring 2020 COVID-19 lockdowns led to a rapid reduction in aerosol and aerosol precursor emissions. These emission reductions provide a unique opportunity for model evaluation and to assess the potential efficacy of future emission control measures. We investigate changes in observed regional aerosol optical depth (AOD) during the COVID-19 lockdowns and use these observed anomalies to evaluate Earth system model simulations forced with COVID-19-like reductions in aerosols and greenhouse gases. Most anthropogenic source regions do not exhibit statistically significant changes in satellite retrievals of total or dust-subtracted AOD, despite the dramatic economic and lifestyle changes associated with the pandemic. Of the regions considered, only India exhibits an AOD anomaly that exceeds internal variability. Earth system models reproduce the observed responses reasonably well over India but initially appear to overestimate the magnitude of response in East China and when averaging over the Northern Hemisphere (0–70 ∘ N) as a whole. We conduct a series of sensitivity tests to systematically assess the contributions of internal variability, model input uncertainty, and observational sampling to the aerosol signal, and we demonstrate that the discrepancies between observed and simulated AOD can be partially resolved through the use of an updated emission inventory. The discrepancies can also be explained in part by characteristics of the observational datasets. Overall our results suggest that current Earth system models have potential to accurately capture the effects of future emission reductions.
    Subject code 551
    Language English
    Publishing date 2024-02-19
    Publishing country de
    Document type Book ; Online
    Database BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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  2. Book ; Online: How well do Earth System Models reproduce observed aerosol changes during the Spring 2020 COVID-19 lockdowns?

    Digby, Ruth A. R. / Gillett, Nathan P. / Monahan, Adam H. / Salzen, Knut / Gkikas, Antonis / Song, Qianqian / Zhang, Zhibo

    eISSN:

    2024  

    Abstract: The spring 2020 COVID-19 lockdowns led to a rapid reduction in aerosol and aerosol precursor emissions. These emission reductions provide a unique opportunity for model evaluation and to assess the potential efficacy of future emission control measures. ... ...

    Abstract The spring 2020 COVID-19 lockdowns led to a rapid reduction in aerosol and aerosol precursor emissions. These emission reductions provide a unique opportunity for model evaluation and to assess the potential efficacy of future emission control measures. We investigate changes in observed regional aerosol optical depth (AOD) during the COVID-19 lockdowns and use these observed anomalies to evaluate Earth system model simulations forced with COVID-19-like reductions in aerosols and greenhouse gases. Most anthropogenic source regions do not exhibit statistically significant changes in satellite retrievals of total or dust-subtracted AOD, despite the dramatic economic and lifestyle changes associated with the pandemic. Of the regions considered, only India exhibits an AOD anomaly that exceeds internal variability. Earth system models reproduce the observed responses reasonably well over India but initially appear to overestimate the magnitude of response in East China and when averaging over the Northern Hemisphere (0–70 ∘ N) as a whole. We conduct a series of sensitivity tests to systematically assess the contributions of internal variability, model input uncertainty, and observational sampling to the aerosol signal, and we demonstrate that the discrepancies between observed and simulated AOD can be partially resolved through the use of an updated emission inventory. The discrepancies can also be explained in part by characteristics of the observational datasets. Overall our results suggest that current Earth system models have potential to accurately capture the effects of future emission reductions.
    Subject code 551
    Language English
    Publishing date 2024-02-19
    Publishing country de
    Document type Book ; Online
    Database BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

    Full text online

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    Inter-library loan at ZB MED

    Your chosen title can be delivered directly to ZB MED Cologne location if you are registered as a user at ZB MED Cologne.

  3. Article: An Observational Constraint on Aviation-Induced Cirrus From the COVID-19-Induced Flight Disruption.

    Digby, Ruth A R / Gillett, Nathan P / Monahan, Adam H / Cole, Jason N S

    Geophysical research letters

    2021  Volume 48, Issue 20, Page(s) e2021GL095882

    Abstract: Global aviation dropped precipitously during the covid-19 pandemic, providing an unprecedented opportunity to study aviation-induced cirrus (AIC). AIC is believed to be responsible for over half of aviation-related radiative forcing, but until now, its ... ...

    Abstract Global aviation dropped precipitously during the covid-19 pandemic, providing an unprecedented opportunity to study aviation-induced cirrus (AIC). AIC is believed to be responsible for over half of aviation-related radiative forcing, but until now, its radiative impact has only been estimated from simulations. Here, we show that satellite observations of cirrus cloud do not exhibit a detectable global response to the dramatic aviation reductions of spring 2020. These results indicate that previous model-based estimates may overestimate AIC. In addition, we find no significant response of diurnal surface air temperature range to the 2020 aviation changes, reinforcing the findings of previous studies. Though aviation influences the climate through multiple pathways, our analysis suggests that its warming effect from cirrus changes may be smaller than previously estimated.
    Language English
    Publishing date 2021-10-19
    Publishing country United States
    Document type Journal Article
    ZDB-ID 7403-2
    ISSN 0094-8276
    ISSN 0094-8276
    DOI 10.1029/2021GL095882
    Database MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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  4. Book ; Online: Improvements in the Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM) through systematic model analysis

    Sigmond, Michael / Anstey, James / Arora, Vivek / Digby, Ruth / Gillett, Nathan / Kharin, Viatcheslav / Merryfield, William / Reader, Catherine / Scinocca, John / Swart, Neil / Virgin, John / Abraham, Carsten / Cole, Jason / Lambert, Nicolas / Lee, Woo-Sung / Liang, Yongxiao / Malinina, Elizaveta / Rieger, Landon / Salzen, Knut /
    Seiler, Christian / Seinen, Clint / Shao, Andrew / Sospedra-Alfonso, Reinel / Wang, Libo / Yang, Duo

    eISSN: 1991-9603

    CanESM5.0 and CanESM5.1

    2023  

    Abstract: The Canadian Earth System Model version 5.0 (CanESM5.0), the most recent major version of the global climate model developed at the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma) at Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC), has been used ... ...

    Abstract The Canadian Earth System Model version 5.0 (CanESM5.0), the most recent major version of the global climate model developed at the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma) at Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC), has been used extensively in climate research and for providing future climate projections in the context of climate services. Previous studies have shown that CanESM5.0 performs well compared to other models and have revealed several model biases. To address these biases, CCCma has recently initiated the ‘Analysis for Development’ (A4D) activity, a coordinated analysis activity in support of CanESM development. Here we describe the goals and organization of this effort and introduce two variants (``p1'' and ``p2'') of a new CanESM version, CanESM5.1, which features substantial improvements as a result of the A4D activity. These improvements include the elimination of spurious stratospheric temperature spikes and an improved simulation of tropospheric dust. Other climate aspects of the p1 variant of CanESM5.1 are similar to those of CanESM5.0, while the p2 variant of CanESM5.1 features reduced equilibrium climate sensitivity and improved ENSO variability as a result of intentional tuning of the atmospheric component. The A4D activity has also led to the improved understanding of other notable CanESM5.0/5.1 biases, including the overestimation of North Atlantic sea ice, a cold bias over sea ice, biases in the stratospheric circulation and a cold bias over the Himalayas. It provides a potential framework for the broader climate community to contribute to CanESM development, which will facilitate further model improvements and ultimately lead to improved climate change information.
    Subject code 333
    Language English
    Publishing date 2023-04-04
    Publishing country de
    Document type Book ; Online
    Database BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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    Inter-library loan at ZB MED

    Your chosen title can be delivered directly to ZB MED Cologne location if you are registered as a user at ZB MED Cologne.

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