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Article ; Online: Emerging long-term trends and interdecadal cycles in Antarctic polynyas.

Duffy, Grant A / Montiel, Fabien / Purich, Ariaan / Fraser, Ceridwen I

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America

2024 Volume 121, Issue 11, Page(s) e2321595121

Abstract: Polynyas, areas of open water embedded within sea ice, are a key component of ocean-atmosphere interactions that act as hotspots of sea-ice production, bottom-water formation, and primary productivity. The specific drivers of polynya dynamics remain, ... ...

Abstract	Polynyas, areas of open water embedded within sea ice, are a key component of ocean-atmosphere interactions that act as hotspots of sea-ice production, bottom-water formation, and primary productivity. The specific drivers of polynya dynamics remain, however, elusive and coupled climate models struggle to replicate Antarctic polynya activity. Here, we leverage a 44-y time series of Antarctic sea ice to elucidate long-term trends. We identify Antarctic-wide linear increases and a hitherto undescribed cyclical pattern of polynya activity across the Ross Sea region that potentially arises from interactions between the Amundsen Sea Low and Southern Annular Mode. While their specific drivers remain unknown, identifying these emerging patterns augments our capacity to understand the processes that influence sea ice. As we enter a potentially new age of Antarctic sea ice, this advance in understanding will, in turn, lead to more accurate predictions of environmental change, and its implications for Antarctic ecosystems.
Language	English
Publishing date	2024-03-04
Publishing country	United States
Document type	Journal Article
ZDB-ID	209104-5
ISSN	1091-6490 ; 0027-8424
ISSN (online)	1091-6490
ISSN	0027-8424
DOI	10.1073/pnas.2321595121
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Article ; Online: Kelp holdfast microclimates buffer invertebrate inhabitants from extreme temperatures.

Perry, Frances / Duffy, Grant A / Lamare, Miles D / Fraser, Ceridwen I

Marine environmental research

2024 Volume 198, Page(s) 106523

Abstract: Climate change is altering environmental conditions, with microclimates providing small-scale refuges within otherwise challenging environments. Durvillaea (southern bull kelp; rimurapa) is a genus of large intertidal fucoid algae, and some species ... ...

Abstract	Climate change is altering environmental conditions, with microclimates providing small-scale refuges within otherwise challenging environments. Durvillaea (southern bull kelp; rimurapa) is a genus of large intertidal fucoid algae, and some species harbour diverse invertebrate communities in their holdfasts. We hypothesised that animal-excavated Durvillaea holdfasts provide a thermal refuge for epibiont species, and tested this hypothesis using the exemplar species D. poha. Using a southern Aotearoa New Zealand population as a case-study, we found extreme temperatures outside the holdfast were 4.4 °C higher in summer and 6.9 °C lower in winter than inside the holdfast. A microclimate model of the holdfasts was built and used to forecast microclimates under 2100 conditions. Temperatures are predicted to increase by 2-3 °C, which may exceed the tolerances of D. poha. However, if D. poha or a similar congeneric persists, temperatures inside holdfasts will remain less extreme than the external environment. The thermal tolerances of two Durvillaea-associated invertebrates, the trochid gastropod Cantharidus antipodum and the amphipod Parawaldeckia kidderi, were also assessed; C. antipodum, but not P. kidderi, displayed metabolic depression at temperatures above and below those inside holdfasts, suggesting that they would be vulnerable outside the holdfast and with future warming. Microclimates, such as those within D. poha holdfasts or holdfasts of similar species, will therefore be important refuges for the survival of species both at the northern (retreating edge) and southern (expanding edge) limits of their distributions.
Language	English
Publishing date	2024-04-18
Publishing country	England
Document type	Journal Article
ZDB-ID	1502505-6
ISSN	1879-0291 ; 0141-1136
ISSN (online)	1879-0291
ISSN	0141-1136
DOI	10.1016/j.marenvres.2024.106523
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Article: Sub-critical limits are viable alternatives to critical thermal limits.

Braschler, Brigitte / Chown, Steven L / Duffy, Grant A

Journal of thermal biology

2021 Volume 101, Page(s) 103106

Abstract: Thermal traits are frequently used to explain variation in species distributions, abundance, and sensitivity to climate change. Due to their utility and ease of measurement, critical thermal limits in particular have proliferated across the ... ...

Abstract	Thermal traits are frequently used to explain variation in species distributions, abundance, and sensitivity to climate change. Due to their utility and ease of measurement, critical thermal limits in particular have proliferated across the ecophysiological literature. Critical limit assays can, however, have deleterious or even lethal effects on individuals and there is growing recognition that intermediate metrics of performance can provide a further, nuanced understanding of how species interact with their environments. Meanwhile, the scarcity of data describing sub-critical or voluntary limits, which have been proposed as alternatives to critical limits and can be collected under less extreme conditions, reduces their value in comparative analyses and broad-scale syntheses. To overcome these limitations and determine if sub-critical limits are viable proxies for upper and lower critical thermal limits we measured and compared the critical and sub-critical thermal limits of 2023 ants representing 51 species. Sub-critical limits in isolation were a satisfactory linear predictor for both individual and species critical limits and when species identity was also considered there were substantial gains in variance explained. These gains indicate that a species-specific conversion factor can further improve estimates of critical traits using sub-critical proxies. Sub-critical limits can, therefore, be integrated into broader syntheses of critical limits and confidently used to calculate common ecological metrics, such as warming tolerance, so long as uncertainty in estimates is explicitly acknowledged. Although lower thermal traits exhibited more variation than their upper counterparts, the stronger phylogenetic signal of lower thermal traits indicates that appropriate conversions for lower thermal traits can be inferred from congenerics or other closely related taxa.
MeSH term(s)	Acclimatization ; Animals ; Ants/genetics ; Ants/physiology ; Phylogeny ; Species Specificity ; Temperature
Language	English
Publishing date	2021-09-22
Publishing country	England
Document type	Journal Article
ZDB-ID	1498364-3
ISSN	1879-0992 ; 0306-4565
ISSN (online)	1879-0992
ISSN	0306-4565
DOI	10.1016/j.jtherbio.2021.103106
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Article: Sub-critical limits are viable alternatives to critical thermal limits

Braschler, Brigitte / Chown, Steven L. / Duffy, Grant A.

Journal of thermal biology. 2021 Oct., v. 101

2021

Abstract	Thermal traits are frequently used to explain variation in species distributions, abundance, and sensitivity to climate change. Due to their utility and ease of measurement, critical thermal limits in particular have proliferated across the ecophysiological literature. Critical limit assays can, however, have deleterious or even lethal effects on individuals and there is growing recognition that intermediate metrics of performance can provide a further, nuanced understanding of how species interact with their environments. Meanwhile, the scarcity of data describing sub-critical or voluntary limits, which have been proposed as alternatives to critical limits and can be collected under less extreme conditions, reduces their value in comparative analyses and broad-scale syntheses. To overcome these limitations and determine if sub-critical limits are viable proxies for upper and lower critical thermal limits we measured and compared the critical and sub-critical thermal limits of 2023 ants representing 51 species. Sub-critical limits in isolation were a satisfactory linear predictor for both individual and species critical limits and when species identity was also considered there were substantial gains in variance explained. These gains indicate that a species-specific conversion factor can further improve estimates of critical traits using sub-critical proxies. Sub-critical limits can, therefore, be integrated into broader syntheses of critical limits and confidently used to calculate common ecological metrics, such as warming tolerance, so long as uncertainty in estimates is explicitly acknowledged. Although lower thermal traits exhibited more variation than their upper counterparts, the stronger phylogenetic signal of lower thermal traits indicates that appropriate conversions for lower thermal traits can be inferred from congenerics or other closely related taxa.
Keywords	climate change ; ecophysiology ; phylogeny ; uncertainty ; variance
Language	English
Dates of publication	2021-10
Publishing place	Elsevier Ltd
Document type	Article
ZDB-ID	1498364-3
ISSN	1879-0992 ; 0306-4565
ISSN (online)	1879-0992
ISSN	0306-4565
DOI	10.1016/j.jtherbio.2021.103106
Database	NAL-Catalogue (AGRICOLA)

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Article ; Online: The veiled ecological danger of rising sea levels.

Chown, Steven L / Duffy, Grant A

Nature ecology & evolution

2017 Volume 1, Issue 9, Page(s) 1219–1221

MeSH term(s)	Climate Change ; Ecology ; Risk Assessment ; Seawater
Language	English
Publishing date	2017-11-16
Publishing country	England
Document type	Journal Article ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
ISSN	2397-334X
ISSN (online)	2397-334X
DOI	10.1038/s41559-017-0267-7
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Article ; Online: Macroalgal microbiome biogeography is shaped by environmental drivers rather than geographical distance.

Pearman, William S / Duffy, Grant A / Liu, Xiaoyue P / Gemmell, Neil J / Morales, Sergio E / Fraser, Ceridwen I

Annals of botany

2023 Volume 133, Issue 1, Page(s) 169–182

Abstract: Background and aims: Contrasting patterns of host and microbiome biogeography can provide insight into the drivers of microbial community assembly. Distance-decay relationships are a classic biogeographical pattern shaped by interactions between ... ...

Abstract	Background and aims: Contrasting patterns of host and microbiome biogeography can provide insight into the drivers of microbial community assembly. Distance-decay relationships are a classic biogeographical pattern shaped by interactions between selective and non-selective processes. Joint biogeography of microbiomes and their hosts is of increasing interest owing to the potential for microbiome-facilitated adaptation. Methods: In this study, we examine the coupled biogeography of the model macroalga Durvillaea and its microbiome using a combination of genotyping by sequencing (host) and 16S rRNA amplicon sequencing (microbiome). Alongside these approaches, we use environmental data to characterize the relationship between the microbiome, the host, and the environment. Key results: We show that although the host and microbiome exhibit shared biogeographical structure, these arise from different processes, with host biogeography showing classic signs of geographical distance decay, but with the microbiome showing environmental distance decay. Examination of microbial subcommunities, defined by abundance, revealed that the abundance of microbes is linked to environmental selection. As microbes become less common, the dominant ecological processes shift away from selective processes and towards neutral processes. Contrary to expectations, we found that ecological drift does not promote structuring of the microbiome. Conclusions: Our results suggest that although host macroalgae exhibit a relatively 'typical' biogeographical pattern of declining similarity with increasing geographical distance, the microbiome is more variable and is shaped primarily by environmental conditions. Our findings suggest that the Baas Becking hypothesis of 'everything is everywhere, the environment selects' might be a useful hypothesis to understand the biogeography of macroalgal microbiomes. As environmental conditions change in response to anthropogenic influences, the processes structuring the microbiome of macroalgae might shift, whereas those governing the host biogeography are less likely to change. As a result, increasingly decoupled host-microbe biogeography might be observed in response to such human influences.
MeSH term(s)	Humans ; RNA, Ribosomal, 16S/genetics ; Microbiota ; Geography
Chemical Substances	RNA, Ribosomal, 16S
Language	English
Publishing date	2023-10-26
Publishing country	England
Document type	Journal Article
ZDB-ID	1461328-1
ISSN	1095-8290 ; 0305-7364
ISSN (online)	1095-8290
ISSN	0305-7364
DOI	10.1093/aob/mcad151
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Article ; Online: Meta‐analysis of Antarctic phylogeography reveals strong sampling bias and critical knowledge gaps

Liu, Xiaoyue P. / Duffy, Grant A. / Pearman, William S. / Pertierra, Luis R. / Fraser, Ceridwen I.

Ecography. 2022 Dec., v. 2022, no. 12 p.e06312-

2022

Abstract: Much of Antarctica's highly endemic terrestrial biodiversity is found in small ice‐free patches. Substantial genetic differentiation has been detected among populations across spatial scales. Sampling is, however, often restricted to commonly‐accessed ... ...

Abstract	Much of Antarctica's highly endemic terrestrial biodiversity is found in small ice‐free patches. Substantial genetic differentiation has been detected among populations across spatial scales. Sampling is, however, often restricted to commonly‐accessed sites and we therefore lack a comprehensive understanding of broad‐scale biogeographic patterns, which could impede forecasts of the nature and impacts of future change. Here, we present a synthesis of published genetic studies across terrestrial Antarctica and the broader Antarctic region, aiming to identify current biogeographic patterns, environmental drivers of diversity and future research priorities. A database of all published genetic research from terrestrial fauna and flora (excl. microbes) across the Antarctic region was constructed. This database was then filtered to focus on the most well‐represented taxa and markers (mitochondrial COI for fauna, and nuclear ITS for flora). The final dataset comprised 7222 records, spanning 153 studies of 335 different species. There was strong taxonomic bias towards flowering plants (52% of all floral data sets) and springtails (54% of all faunal data sets), and geographic bias towards the Antarctic Peninsula and Victoria Land. Recent connectivity between the Antarctic continent and neighbouring landmasses, such as South America and the Southern Ocean Islands (SOIs), was inferred for some groups, but patterns observed for most taxa were strongly influenced by sampling biases. Above‐ground wind speed and habitat heterogeneity were positively correlated with genetic diversity indices overall though environment was a generally poor predictor of genetic diversity. The low resolution and variable coverage of data may also have reduced the power of our comparative inferences. In the future, higher‐resolution data, such as genomic SNPs and environmental modelling, alongside targeting sampling of remote sites and under sampled taxa, will address current knowledge gaps and greatly advance our understanding of evolutionary processes across the Antarctic region.
Keywords	Collembola ; biodiversity ; data collection ; databases ; fauna ; flora ; genetic variation ; genomics ; geographical distribution ; habitats ; meta-analysis ; mitochondria ; phylogeography ; wind speed ; Antarctic region ; Antarctica ; South America
Language	English
Dates of publication	2022-12
Publishing place	Blackwell Publishing Ltd
Document type	Article ; Online
Note	JOURNAL ARTICLE
ZDB-ID	1112659-0
ISSN	0906-7590
ISSN	0906-7590
DOI	10.1111/ecog.06312
Database	NAL-Catalogue (AGRICOLA)

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Article ; Online: Spatio-temporal development of the urban heat island in a socioeconomically diverse tropical city.

Ramsay, Emma E / Duffy, Grant A / Burge, Kerrie / Taruc, Ruzka R / Fleming, Genie M / Faber, Peter A / Chown, Steven L

Environmental pollution (Barking, Essex : 1987)

2022 Volume 316, Issue Pt 1, Page(s) 120443

Abstract: Urban heat islands, where temperatures are elevated relative to non-urban surrounds, are near-ubiquitous in cities globally. Yet, the magnitude and form of urban heat islands in the tropics, where heat has a large morbidity and mortality burden, is not ... ...

Abstract	Urban heat islands, where temperatures are elevated relative to non-urban surrounds, are near-ubiquitous in cities globally. Yet, the magnitude and form of urban heat islands in the tropics, where heat has a large morbidity and mortality burden, is not well understood, especially for those of urban informal settlements. We used 29 years of Landsat satellite-derived surface temperature, corroborated by in situ temperature measurements, to provide a detailed spatial and temporal assessment of urban heat islands in Makassar, Indonesia, a city that is representative of rapidly growing urban settlements across the tropics. Our analysis identified surface urban heat islands of up to 9.2 °C in long-urbanised parts of the city and 6.3 °C in informal settlements, the seasonal patterns of which were driven by change in non-urban areas rather than in urban areas themselves. In recently urbanised areas, the majority of urban heat island increase occurred before land became 50% urbanised, whereas the established heat island in long-urbanised areas remained stable in response to urban expansion. Green and blue space protected some informal settlements from the worst urban heat islands observed across the city and maintenance of such space will be essential to mitigate the growing heat burden from urban expansion and anthropogenic climate change. Settlements further than 4 km from the coast and with Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) less than 0.2 had higher surface temperatures, with modelled effects of more than 5 °C. Surface temperature measurements were representative of in situ heat exposure, measured in a subset of 12 informal settlements, where mean indoor temperature had the strongest relationship with surface temperature (R
Language	English
Publishing date	2022-10-17
Publishing country	England
Document type	Journal Article
ZDB-ID	280652-6
ISSN	1873-6424 ; 0013-9327 ; 0269-7491
ISSN (online)	1873-6424
ISSN	0013-9327 ; 0269-7491
DOI	10.1016/j.envpol.2022.120443
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Article: Adequate sample sizes for improved accuracy of thermal trait estimates

Duffy, Grant A. / Kuyucu, Arda C. / Hoskins, Jessica L. / Hay, Eleanor M. / Chown, Steven L.

Functional ecology. 2021 Dec., v. 35, no. 12

2021

Abstract: Thermal traits, such as upper and lower critical thermal limits, are vital indicators of the vulnerability of populations and species to environmental change. Thus, accurate estimates of these traits are needed to explain biological patterns and forecast ...

Abstract	Thermal traits, such as upper and lower critical thermal limits, are vital indicators of the vulnerability of populations and species to environmental change. Thus, accurate estimates of these traits are needed to explain biological patterns and forecast responses to the changing thermal environment. However, many thermal trait studies measure relatively few individuals to estimate traits for whole populations or species. To ascertain if, and how, sample size affects the accuracy of reported trait means and variances, we applied a subsampling and equivalency testing approach to empirical and simulated trait data to investigate the accuracy of trait estimates relative to sample size and the skew and variance of the trait distribution in the source population. Simulation results indicated that only 7.9% of the 428 critical thermal limit traits documented in a recent synthesis of thermal trait data reported sufficiently large sample sizes, relative to variance, to ensure confidence in the reported mean trait value with negligible (±0.25°C) error. Greater inter‐individual trait variance in the source population requires a larger number of individuals to be measured to accurately estimate the mean and variance of that trait. This pattern is mitigated somewhat by the tendency of thermal traits to exhibit skew‐normal distributions. As measurements of few individuals from a population are unlikely to provide accurate estimates of thermal traits, the propensity towards small sample sizes in thermal trait studies is concerning. Macrophysiological syntheses often use these data to describe, explain and predict broad‐scale ecological patterns. Thus, insufficient sample sizes in the original studies could diminish the robustness of these patterns and predictions. For future studies, we recommend that preliminary data be used to estimate trait variance and calculate minimum sample sizes. If small sample sizes are unavoidable, larger error around the measured trait mean must be assumed and accounted for in subsequent analyses. A free Plain Language Summary can be found within the Supporting Information of this article.
Keywords	ecology ; sample size ; variance
Language	English
Dates of publication	2021-12
Size	p. 2647-2662.
Publishing place	John Wiley & Sons, Ltd
Document type	Article
Note	JOURNAL ARTICLE
ZDB-ID	2020307-X
ISSN	1365-2435 ; 0269-8463
ISSN (online)	1365-2435
ISSN	0269-8463
DOI	10.1111/1365-2435.13928
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Article ; Online: Tracheal branching in ants is area-decreasing, violating a central assumption of network transport models.

Aitkenhead, Ian J / Duffy, Grant A / Devendran, Citsabehsan / Kearney, Michael R / Neild, Adrian / Chown, Steven L

PLoS computational biology

2020 Volume 16, Issue 4, Page(s) e1007853

Abstract: The structure of tubular transport networks is thought to underlie much of biological regularity, from individuals to ecosystems. A core assumption of transport network models is either area-preserving or area-increasing branching, such that the summed ... ...

Abstract	The structure of tubular transport networks is thought to underlie much of biological regularity, from individuals to ecosystems. A core assumption of transport network models is either area-preserving or area-increasing branching, such that the summed cross-sectional area of all child branches is equal to or greater than the cross-sectional area of their respective parent branch. For insects, the most diverse group of animals, the assumption of area-preserving branching of tracheae is, however, based on measurements of a single individual and an assumption of gas exchange by diffusion. Here we show that ants exhibit neither area-preserving nor area-increasing branching in their abdominal tracheal systems. We find for 20 species of ants that the sum of child tracheal cross-sectional areas is typically less than that of the parent branch (area-decreasing). The radius, rather than the area, of the parent branch is conserved across the sum of child branches. Interpretation of the tracheal system as one optimized for the release of carbon dioxide, while readily catering to oxygen demand, explains the branching pattern. Our results, together with widespread demonstration that gas exchange in insects includes, and is often dominated by, convection, indicate that for generality, network transport models must include consideration of systems with different architectures.
MeSH term(s)	Animals ; Ants/physiology ; Biological Transport/physiology ; Carbon Dioxide/metabolism ; Computational Biology/methods ; Models, Biological ; Oxygen/metabolism ; Trachea/physiology
Chemical Substances	Carbon Dioxide (142M471B3J) ; Oxygen (S88TT14065)
Language	English
Publishing date	2020-04-30
Publishing country	United States
Document type	Journal Article ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
ZDB-ID	2193340-6
ISSN	1553-7358 ; 1553-734X
ISSN (online)	1553-7358
ISSN	1553-734X
DOI	10.1371/journal.pcbi.1007853
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