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  1. Article ; Online: Improving our understanding of future tropical cyclone intensities in the Caribbean using a high-resolution regional climate model.

    Dullaart, Job C M / de Vries, Hylke / Bloemendaal, Nadia / Aerts, Jeroen C J H / Muis, Sanne

    Scientific reports

    2024  Volume 14, Issue 1, Page(s) 6108

    Abstract: The Caribbean region is prone to the strong winds and low air pressures of tropical cyclones and their corresponding storm surge that driving coastal flooding. To protect coastal communities from the impacts of tropical cyclones, it is important to ... ...

    Abstract The Caribbean region is prone to the strong winds and low air pressures of tropical cyclones and their corresponding storm surge that driving coastal flooding. To protect coastal communities from the impacts of tropical cyclones, it is important to understand how this impact of tropical cyclones might change towards the future. This study applies the storyline approach to show what tropical cyclones Maria (2017) and Dorian (2019) could look like in a 2 °C and 3.4 °C warmer future climate. These two possible future climates are simulated with a high-resolution regional climate model using the pseudo global warming approach. Using the climate response from these simulations we apply a Delta-quantile mapping technique to derive future changes in wind speed and mean sea level pressure. We apply this Delta technique to tropical cyclones Maria and Dorian's observed wind and pressure fields to force a hydrodynamic model for simulating storm surge levels under historical and future climate conditions. Results show that the maximum storm surge heights of Maria and Dorian could increase by up to 0.31 m and 0.56 m, respectively. These results clearly show that future changes in storm surge heights are not negligible compared to end-of-the-century sea level rise projections, something that is sometimes overlooked in large-scale assessments of future coastal flood risk.
    Language English
    Publishing date 2024-03-13
    Publishing country England
    Document type Journal Article
    ZDB-ID 2615211-3
    ISSN 2045-2322 ; 2045-2322
    ISSN (online) 2045-2322
    ISSN 2045-2322
    DOI 10.1038/s41598-023-49685-y
    Database MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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  2. Article: Advancing global storm surge modelling using the new ERA5 climate reanalysis

    Dullaart, Job C. M / Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H / Bloemendaal, Nadia / Muis, Sanne

    Climate dynamics. 2020 Jan., v. 54, no. 1-2

    2020  

    Abstract: This study examines the implications of recent advances in global climate modelling for simulating storm surges. Following the ERA-Interim (0.75° × 0.75°) global climate reanalysis, in 2018 the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts released ... ...

    Abstract This study examines the implications of recent advances in global climate modelling for simulating storm surges. Following the ERA-Interim (0.75° × 0.75°) global climate reanalysis, in 2018 the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts released its successor, the ERA5 (0.25° × 0.25°) reanalysis. Using the Global Tide and Surge Model, we analyse eight historical storm surge events driven by tropical—and extra-tropical cyclones. For these events we extract wind fields from the two reanalysis datasets and compare these against satellite-based wind field observations from the Advanced SCATterometer. The root mean squared errors in tropical cyclone wind speed reduce by 58% in ERA5, compared to ERA-Interim, indicating that the mean sea-level pressure and corresponding strong 10-m winds in tropical cyclones greatly improved from ERA-Interim to ERA5. For four of the eight historical events we validate the modelled storm surge heights with tide gauge observations. For Hurricane Irma, the modelled surge height increases from 0.88 m with ERA-Interim to 2.68 m with ERA5, compared to an observed surge height of 2.64 m. We also examine how future advances in climate modelling can potentially further improve global storm surge modelling by comparing the results for ERA-Interim and ERA5 against the operational Integrated Forecasting System (0.125° × 0.125°). We find that a further increase in model resolution results in a better representation of the wind fields and associated storm surges, especially for small size tropical cyclones. Overall, our results show that recent advances in global climate modelling have the potential to increase the accuracy of early-warning systems and coastal flood hazard assessments at the global scale.
    Keywords climate ; climate models ; data collection ; early warning systems ; hurricanes ; remote sensing ; satellites ; sea level ; weather forecasting ; wind speed
    Language English
    Dates of publication 2020-01
    Size p. 1007-1021.
    Publishing place Springer Berlin Heidelberg
    Document type Article
    ZDB-ID 1471747-5
    ISSN 1432-0894 ; 0930-7575
    ISSN (online) 1432-0894
    ISSN 0930-7575
    DOI 10.1007/s00382-019-05044-0
    Database NAL-Catalogue (AGRICOLA)

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  3. Book ; Online: Modelled storm surge changes in a warmer world

    Scussolini, Paolo / Dullaart, Job / Muis, Sanne / Rovere, Alessio / Bakker, Pepijn / Coumou, Dim / Renssen, Hans / Ward, Philip J. / Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H.

    eISSN:

    the Last Interglacial

    2023  

    Abstract: The Last Interglacial (LIG; ca. 125 ka) is a period of interest for climate research as it is the most recent period of the Earth's history when the boreal climate was warmer than at present. Previous research, based on models and geological evidence, ... ...

    Abstract The Last Interglacial (LIG; ca. 125 ka) is a period of interest for climate research as it is the most recent period of the Earth's history when the boreal climate was warmer than at present. Previous research, based on models and geological evidence, suggests that the LIG may have featured enhanced patterns of ocean storminess, but this remains hotly debated. Here, we apply state-of-the-art climate and hydrodynamic modeling to simulate changes in sea level extremes caused by storm surges, under LIG and pre-industrial climate forcings. Significantly higher seasonal LIG sea level extremes emerge for coastlines along northern Australia, the Indonesian archipelago, much of northern and eastern Africa, the Mediterranean Sea, the Gulf of Saint Lawrence, the Arabian Sea, the east coast of North America, and islands of the Pacific Ocean and of the Caribbean. Lower seasonal LIG sea level extremes emerge for coastlines along the North Sea, the Bay of Bengal, China, Vietnam, and parts of Central America. Most of these anomalies are associated with anomalies in seasonal sea level pressure minima and in eddy kinetic energy calculated from near-surface wind fields, and therefore seem to originate from anomalies in the meridional position and intensity of the predominant wind bands. In a qualitative comparison, LIG sea level extremes seem generally higher than those projected for future warmer climates. These results help to constrain the interpretation of coastal archives of LIG sea level indicators.
    Subject code 551
    Language English
    Publishing date 2023-01-16
    Publishing country de
    Document type Book ; Online
    Database BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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  4. Book ; Online: Modeled storm surge changes in a warmer world

    Scussolini, Paolo / Dullaart, Job / Muis, Sanne / Rovere, Alessio / Bakker, Pepijn / Coumou, Dim / Renssen, Hans / Ward, Philip J. / Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H.

    eISSN: 1814-9332

    the Last Interglacial

    2023  

    Abstract: The Last Interglacial (LIG; ca. 125 ka) is a period of interest for climate research as it is the most recent period of the Earth's history when the boreal climate was warmer than at present. Previous research, based on models and geological evidence, ... ...

    Abstract The Last Interglacial (LIG; ca. 125 ka) is a period of interest for climate research as it is the most recent period of the Earth's history when the boreal climate was warmer than at present. Previous research, based on models and geological evidence, suggests that the LIG may have featured enhanced patterns of ocean storminess, but this remains hotly debated. Here, we apply state-of-the-art climate and hydrodynamic modeling to simulate changes in sea level extremes caused by storm surges, under LIG and pre-industrial climate forcings. Significantly higher seasonal LIG sea level extremes emerge for coastlines along northern Australia, the Indonesian archipelago, much of northern and eastern Africa, the Mediterranean Sea, the Gulf of Saint Lawrence, the Arabian Sea, the east coast of North America, and islands of the Pacific Ocean and of the Caribbean. Lower seasonal LIG sea level extremes emerge for coastlines along the North Sea, the Bay of Bengal, China, Vietnam, and parts of Central America. Most of these anomalies are associated with anomalies in seasonal sea level pressure minima and in eddy kinetic energy calculated from near-surface wind fields, and therefore seem to originate from anomalies in the meridional position and intensity of the predominant wind bands. In a qualitative comparison, LIG sea level extremes seem generally higher than those projected for future warmer climates. These results help to constrain the interpretation of coastal archives of LIG sea level indicators.
    Subject code 551
    Language English
    Publishing date 2023-01-16
    Publishing country de
    Document type Book ; Online
    Database BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

    Full text online

    More links

    Kategorien

    Inter-library loan at ZB MED

    Your chosen title can be delivered directly to ZB MED Cologne location if you are registered as a user at ZB MED Cologne.

  5. Article ; Online: A globally consistent local-scale assessment of future tropical cyclone risk.

    Bloemendaal, Nadia / de Moel, Hans / Martinez, Andrew B / Muis, Sanne / Haigh, Ivan D / van der Wiel, Karin / Haarsma, Reindert J / Ward, Philip J / Roberts, Malcolm J / Dullaart, Job C M / Aerts, Jeroen C J H

    Science advances

    2022  Volume 8, Issue 17, Page(s) eabm8438

    Abstract: There is considerable uncertainty surrounding future changes in tropical cyclone (TC) frequency and intensity, particularly at local scales. This uncertainty complicates risk assessments and implementation of risk mitigation strategies. We present a ... ...

    Abstract There is considerable uncertainty surrounding future changes in tropical cyclone (TC) frequency and intensity, particularly at local scales. This uncertainty complicates risk assessments and implementation of risk mitigation strategies. We present a novel approach to overcome this problem, using the statistical model STORM to generate 10,000 years of synthetic TCs under past (1980-2017) and future climate (SSP585; 2015-2050) conditions from an ensemble of four high-resolution climate models. We then derive high-resolution (10-km) wind speed return period maps up to 1000 years to assess local-scale changes in wind speed probabilities. Our results indicate that the probability of intense TCs, on average, more than doubles in all regions except for the Bay of Bengal and the Gulf of Mexico. Our unique and innovative methodology enables globally consistent comparison of TC risk in both time and space and can be easily adapted to accommodate alternative climate scenarios and time periods.
    Language English
    Publishing date 2022-04-27
    Publishing country United States
    Document type Journal Article
    ZDB-ID 2810933-8
    ISSN 2375-2548 ; 2375-2548
    ISSN (online) 2375-2548
    ISSN 2375-2548
    DOI 10.1126/sciadv.abm8438
    Database MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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